The run home: How your NRL club is going to finish

Now that we’ve emerged from the State of Origin period, there are just eight rounds left before the finals.

For some sides that means an opportunity to secure a prized top-four spot. For others it is just the battle to make the finals. For others it will turn into a fight to avoid the spoon.

So which sides will fill which roles? I’m going to examine each side and tell you the answers. Then I’m going to predict the final eight and how the finals series will play out.

Brisbane Broncos
Current Position: 1st, 30 points
Record: 13 wins, 3 losses.
Points differential: +115 (+7.2 a game)

Unbeaten in their last six games, it is the first time since 1999 that the Broncos have gone through the Origin period undefeated. Their three losses have been a flogging by the Rabbitohs in Round 1, the Dragons by two points at Kogarah and by 11 points to the Cowboys up in Townsville.

Like I predicted last year, the return of Wayne Bennett has seen the immediate return of the Broncos to the ranks of contenders. He is that good, people. Amongst other things, he’s got Allan Langer running behind Anthony Milford every set telling him what to do and it is paying dividends.

Milford and his half partner Ben Hunt are serving up plenty of line break and try assists. Andrew McCullough is tackling anything that moves, Corey Parker is arguably playing his best footy ever and the back line is slick. But while they are guaranteed finalists in 2015 are they actually contenders? With Josh McGuire out do they have enough forward grunt?

The good stats
• Equal first for tries scored
• 2nd best for line breaks made
• 5th best for metres per game
• 4th best missed tackles
• Lowest penalties conceded
• Below average errors

The poor stats
• 4th highest metres conceded per game
• the highest average tackles per game

The run home
• Wests Tigers (15th) home
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) home
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) away
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) away
• Melbourne Storm (6th) home

Judging by their performances recently, even without McGuire, they will probably win all but two of those and finish in first spot on 42 points.

Prediction: Will fall one short of the grand final and be knocked out in the preliminary finals.

North Queensland Cowboys
Current Position: 2nd, 28 points
Record: 12 wins, 4 losses.
Points differential: +34 (+2.1 a game)

Similarly to the Broncos, the Cowboys got hammered at home in Round 1, with the Roosters beating them by 24 points. They then followed that up with another home loss to the Knights and an away loss to the Broncos. However, they’ve only lost one more out of the next 13.

They’ve got stars to burn: Matthew Scott and James Tamou amassing metres, Jason Taumalolo busting tackles, Michael Morgan and Lachlan Coote weaving magic, Jake Granville making a case for being the next Queensland number nine and of course the superstar of the NRL: Johnathan Thurston.

This year they’ve figured out how to win on the road. But can they go all the way?

The good stats
• Best for metres made per game
• Best for metres conceded per game
• 5th best for tries scored
• 2nd best for tackle breaks
• Below average missed tackles and penalties conceded.
• 4th lowest penalties conceded
• 4th best average errors

The poor stats
• 4th highest line breaks conceded

The run home
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) away
• Parramatta Eels (12th) home
• Canberra Raiders (10th) home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) away
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) home
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) away
• Melbourne Storm (6th) away
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) home

It is a fair guess that, led by Thurston, they’ll win six of those games and finish second on 40 points.

Prediction: grand finalists.

Sydney Roosters
Current Position: 3rd, 24 points
Record: 10 wins, 6 losses.
Points differential: +138 (+8.6 a game)

I’ve got distinct vibes about most sides but I don’t have a good read on the Roosters. Consistency hasn’t exactly been the theme for the Roosters in 2015. Earlier this season I thought they were good things for the title but now I’m not so sure.

While they’ve had five big wins this season against the Cowboys, Raiders, Wests Tigers, Storm and Panthers, they’ve lost over a third of their games. Do they still have the ruthless edge from 2013? Will the immanent departures of James Maloney and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck upset the team? Can Blake Ferguson recapture his best form?

Tuivasa-Sheck has career best stats, with nearly 90 tackle breaks so far and an average of over 200 metres per game – the best in the NRL. Maloney is still a liability in defence, missing four tackles a game to be the biggest turnstile so far this year. It could go either way.

The good stats
• 4th best for line breaks made
• 3rd best for tackle breaks made
• 2nd best for metres per game
• lowest line breaks conceded

The poor stats
• 3rd highest errors per game

The run home
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) home
• Wests Tigers (15th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) away
• Parramatta Eels (12th) away
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) home
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) away
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) home

I’m guessing that the Roosters will win five of those games and finish on 34 points.

Prediction: Semi or preliminary finalists.

New Zealand Warriors
Current Position: 4th, 22 points
Record: 9 wins, 7 losses.
Points differential: +27 (+1.75 a game)

I’m sorry Warriors fans, but I’m calling it: your side are flat track bullies. The only time they’ve beaten a top eight side this year is last weekend’s victory over the Storm. Other than that they’ve only beaten the strugglers – and often not convincingly.

Although the below stats paint a very healthy picture for the Warriors, their wins have come over Canberra (twice), Wests Tigers, Parramatta (twice), Cronulla, Newcastle and the Titans. In the six games they’ve played against sides in the eight they’ve only won one and they’ve conceded an average of 28 points while scoring only 18.

We know that Shaun Johnson is a deadset superstar but he is also inconsistent. And who else at the Warriors is of superstar quality? Konrad Hurrell? Tuimoala Lolohea? I’m just not convinced.

The good stats
• Equal best tries scored
• Best line breaks
• 4th best tackle breaks
• 5th lowest missed tackles
• 4th best metres gained
• 3rd lowest metres conceded

The poor stats
• 2nd highest errors conceded

The run home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) away
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) home
• Penrith Panthers (11th) away
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) home
• Wests Tigers (15th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) away

The Warriors may win four of these games and finish on 30 points.

Prediction: They’ll probably make the finals but have an early exit.

South Sydney Rabbitohs
Current Position: 5th, 22 points
Record: 9 wins, 7 losses.
Points differential: +18 (+1.1 a game)

After being such a dominant force in 2014, the Rabbitohs in 2015 have a whole lot of mediocre stats. While their defence is still superb, they’ve gone from being the second best metre-gaining side in 2014 to the fourth lowest in 2015. Last season they boasted seven players who averaged over 100 metres a game, this year they only have four.

The loss of Sam Burgess has been a very big one. However, five of their nine wins have come against sides in the top eight. The side is still loaded with talent but I don’t think the pack is up to the standard of 2014.

The good stats
• Above average line breaks and tackle breaks
• Equal lowest missed tackles

The poor stats
• 4th lowest metres made per game
• 3rd highest penalties conceded

The run home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) home
• Penrith Panthers (11th) home
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) away
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) home
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) away

If they cop an injury or two I can see the Rabbitohs winning only four of their remaining eight to end on 30 points and on the razor’s edge for making the finals.

Prediction: Will make the second week of the finals.

Melbourne Storm
Current Position: 6th, 20 points
Record: 8 wins, 8 losses.
Points differential: +26 (+1.6 a game)

Is the dream finally over? Have the Storm that have been so damn good for a decade begun to become mediocre? This season they’ve won as many as they’ve lost and of their nine encounters against top eight sides they’ve won only four. The last of those was back in Round 10, before Billy Slater was ruled out for the season.

Any side that features Cam Smith and Cooper Cronk should never be counted out. Their defence is still fantastic but their attack has declined massively. In 2013 they averaged 4.1 tries a match, in 2014 that dropped to 3.9. In 2015 it is down to just 2.9.

Perhaps the loss of Sisa Waqa (18 tries in 2014) and Slater’s injury (12 tries in 2014) are really hurting. They only have eight matches to find form in crossing the stripe but fortunately only three of those games are against top eight sides.

The good stats
• Lowest errors in the NRL
• 3rd lowest missed tackles
• 2nd lowest line breaks conceded
• 4th lowest tries conceded

The poor stats
• 3rd lowest tries scored
• 3rd lowest line breaks
• 3rd lowest tackle breaks
• Below average metres per match

The run home
• Penrith Panthers (11th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) home
• Wests Tigers (15th) away
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) home
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) home
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) away

I think the Storm will win five of their last eight to finish on 30 points.

Prediction: Elimination final exit.

St George Illawarra Dragons
Current Position: 7th, 20 points
Record: 8 wins, 8 losses.
Points differential: +22 (+1.4 a game)

The Dragons have played eight games against top eight sides and they’ve won three of them. However, the last one of them was way back in Round 8. They are now on a six-game losing streak that threatens to derail their season.

The reason? It’s the old story: the Dragons just can’t score enough tries. Earlier in the season the defence of Ben Creagh, Jack De Belin, Tyson Frizell, Michael Cooper and Mitch Rein was really disrupting opposition attacks and allowing their own meagre points tallies to earn the two points.

Origin period and a few crucial injuries have caused things to go decidedly pear shaped. The good news: hopefully the worst of the injury crisis has passed. But can they score the required tries?

The good stats
• 2nd lowest penalties conceded
• 3rd lowest line breaks conceded
• 3rd highest metres gained

The poor stats
• Lowest tries scored
• 2nd lowest line breaks
• 3rd highest penalties conceded

The run home
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) home
• Melbourne Storm (6th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) home
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) away
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) away
• Penrith Panthers (11th) home
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) away
• Wests Tigers (15th) home

The Dragons should win five of these games and finish on 30 points. The problem is that finals are mostly won by sides with good attack. While the Dragons have shown glimpses of talent in this regard, their real talent is in aggressive defence.

Prediction: Knocked out in the first week of the finals.

Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
Current Position: 7th, 20 points
Record: 8 wins, 8 losses.
Points differential: +22 (+1.4 a game)

Just have a look at the stats below. They are great. They are the figures of a side that has been in two of the last three deciders. The Bulldogs have a superb side too. Yet they have been hampered by brain explosions from their props and their five-eighth.

Now almost fully fit – except for Tony Williams – the Bulldogs may just come good at exactly the right time and once more challenge for the flag. One thing to note though is that of the eight wins they’ve had this season, only two have been against current top eight sides.

The good stats
• 5th highest metres a game
• 3rd lowest metres per game conceded
• Lowest missed tackles in the NRL
• 4th lowest line breaks conceded
• 3rd highest tries scored

The poor stats
• Lower than average tackle breaks
• 3rd highest metres conceded

The run home
• Parramatta Eels (12th) away
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) away
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) away
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) home
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) away
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) home

I reckon the Bulldogs will win six of their last eight games to finish on 32 points and make a charge for the grand final.

Prediction: Either the preliminary final or grand final.

Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
Current Position: 9th, 20 points
Record: 8 wins, 8 losses.
Points differential: -25 (-1.56 a game)

This has been a far better season for the Sharks. They’ve already won three more games than they did for the whole of 2014. That they’ve done it for 50 per cent of the games without their talismanic captain Paul Gallen puts an even better light on things.

The problem is they’ve now got to bring it home. This weekend’s match against the Raiders is crucial. If they win they’ll be in a good position to get the five victories that they need to guarantee a finals berth. If they lose, well things could fall away pretty quickly indeed. In my opinion their fate rests heavily with Andrew Fifita and Jack Bird.

The good stats
• 5th lowest metres conceded
• The most penalties received per game
• 3rd highest tackle breaks

The poor stats
• 3rd lowest tries scored
• 3rd lowest line breaks

The run home
• Canberra Raiders (10th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) away
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) away
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) home
• Melbourne Storm (6th) home
• Wests Tigers (15th) home
• Parramatta Eels (12th) away
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) home

I can only see three more wins for the Sharks for a finish on 26 points.

Prediction: 11th.

Canberra Raiders
Current Position: 10th, 18 points
Record: 7 wins, 9 losses.
Points differential: 7 (+0.4 a game)

There are two essential differences between the Raiders last year and this year: this year their defence has improved out of sight and so has their attack. Last season they averaged 3.4 tries scored a game and 4.9 conceded. This year they score four a game. However, they also concede four a game.

Yet they’ve gone from conceding 7.6 line breaks a game to just 4.6. They have played ten of their first sixteen games against sides currently in the top eight. Their run home only features one such encounter. One gets the feeling that they are about two players away from being genuine contenders, Elliot Whitehead and Aidan Sezer may be those players. They must also learn how to win at home. only two of their seven wins have been in Canberra.

The good stats
• Highest try scoring side
• 2nd lowest errors

The poor stats
• 5th lowest metres per game
• 3rd lowest tackle breaks
• 5th worst missed tackles
• 2nd highest metres conceded

The run home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) home
• Penrith Panthers (11th) away
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) away
• Wests Tigers (15th) home
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) home
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) away
• Penrith Panthers (11th) home
• Parramatta Eels (12th) away

I think they’ll win five – maybe six – of these games to finish either just in or just out of the finals.

Prediction: 9th.

Penrith Panthers
Current Position: 11th, 18 points
Record: 7 wins, 9 losses.
Points differential: -25 (-1.56 a game)

Every now and then a side just gets crippled by injuries. This season the poor old Panthers have really copped it. Peter Wallace, Jamie Soward, Adam Docker, Matt Moylan, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Jamal Idris, Brent Kite, Josh Mansour, David Simmons, George Jennings and Lewis Brown have all been injured or are injured.

That they’ve managed seven wins to this point is testament to their fighting spirit and discipline. I can’t see them making the finals when five of their last eight games are away from home.

The good stats
• Highest offloading side
• 2nd lowest errors
• 2nd lowest metres conceded
• 2nd highest penalties received

The poor stats
• 3rd lowest tries
• 2nd highest missed tackles
• 4th highest errors

The run home
• Melbourne Storm (6th) away
• Canberra Raiders (10th) home
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) away
• Parramatta Eels (12th) away
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) away
• Canberra Raiders (10th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) home

I can only see a maximum of two or three wins here for the injury devastated Panthers. Start planning for 2016.

Prediction: 10th.

Parramatta Eels
Current Position: 12th, 18 points
Record: 7 wins, 9 losses.
Points differential: -38 (-2.375 a game)

Life post-Jarryd Hayne has not been beer and skittles for the Eels. For a starter ten of their sixteen games so far this season have been against sides in the current top eight. They’ve only won three of those. They are currently gunning for four wins in a row when they take on the Bulldogs this weekend.

While they certainly can score a try – Semi Radradra is tearing it up – their try scoring feats are usually left for the non top eight sides. The good news for Eels fans is that five of their remaining matches fit this bill.

The good stats
• 2nd highest try scoring side
• 4th lowest metres conceded

The poor stats
• Lowest tackle breaking side
• 3rd lowest metre gaining side
• 3rd highest missed tackles

The run home
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) home
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) away
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) away
• Penrith Panthers (11th) home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) away
• Manly Sea Eagles (13th) away
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) home
• Canberra Raiders (10th) home

I see only two more wins for the Eels this season.

Prediction: 12th.

Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Current Position: 13th, 16 points
Record: 6 wins, 10 losses.
Points differential: -50 (-3.1 a game)

Quite simply Manly’s pack just hasn’t been competitive this season. To compound that they’ve had injuries to contend with. On top of that there has been the Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans intrigues. Then the knives have been out for Geoff Toovey.

While they’ve almost got a full strength side back on the paddock, in order to make the finals they must win six of their remaining eight games. Five of those games are against the Cowboys, Roosters, Broncos, Rabbitohs and Warriors. However, four are at Brookvale. It’s possible but I reckon they are too far back.

The good stats
• 3rd lowest errors

The poor stats
• Highest line breaks conceded
• 4th highest missed tackles
• 2nd lowest line breaking side
• 2nd lowest tackle breaking side
• 2nd lowest metre gaining side
• 5th highest metres conceded

The run home
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) home
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) away
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) home
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) home
• Canberra Raiders (10th) away
• Parramatta Eels (12th) home
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) away

I predict three more wins for the Sea Eagles this season.

Prediction: 13th.

Gold Coast Titans
Current Position: 14th, 16 points
Record: 6 wins, 10 losses.
Points differential: -89 (-5.56 a game)

Queen Elizabeth once commented that she had had an annus horribilis. It made us all laugh lots. The Titans know just how she felt and no one is laughing. This year has been a great steaming pile of excrement. Players on drug charges, club almost going out backwards, Cherry-Evans reneging, Nate Myles and Sezer leaving and of course some very ordinary results.

Their only good stat is that they offload a lot. Very high offloads often go hand in hand with a poorly structured attack and high error rates. The Titans have both. They’ve also suffered more than their fair share of injuries and suspensions to boot. Where to from here?

The good stats
• 2nd highest offloading side

The poor stats
• 3rd lowest tackle breaking side
• Lowest metre gaining side
• Highest missed tackles
• Highest penalties conceded
• Highest errors conceded
• 2nd highest line breaks conceded

The run home
• Newcastle Knights (16th) away
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) away
• Parramatta Eels (12th) home
• Melbourne Storm (6th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) away
• Canberra Raiders (10th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) away
• North Queensland Cowboys (second) away

I predict one or two more victories for the Titans this season.

Prediction: 14th.

Wests Tigers
Current Position: 15th, 14 points
Record: 5 wins, 11 losses.
Points differential: -48 (-3 a game)

Wests Tigers undoubtedly have loads of talent. Martin Tapau, Aaron Woods, Robbie Farah and James Tedesco are stars. Very possibly Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses will be one day. But right now, for all their promise in attack, they are dreadful defenders.

They both miss around three tackles each match and it is a liability their forwards haven’t been able to cover up. The decision to let Blake Austin go must enrage Tigers fans, especially when they see him tackling well. They are capable of scoring some brilliant tries but their defence just isn’t good enough.

The good stats
• 5th lowest errors

The poor stats
• Lowest Line breaking side
• Second highest penalties conceded
• Worst metre conceding side
• Worst defensive half and five-eighth combination

The run home
• Brisbane Broncos Ltd (1st) away
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) home
• Melbourne Storm (6th) home
• Canberra Raiders (10th) away
• Newcastle Knights (16th) home
• Cronulla Sutherland Sharks (9th) away
• New Zealand Warriors (4th) home
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) away

I predict one more victory for the Wests Tigers this season to finish on 16 points.

Prediction: 16th.

Newcastle Knights
Current Position: 16th, 14 points
Record: 5 wins, 11 losses.
Points differential: -98 (-6 a game)

Frankly, the Knights stats aren’t as bad as some of the sides above them. When it comes to tackle breaks and line breaks they are one of the best sides. However, that has only translated into mediocre tries scored. While they have average stats in defence they have still let in the second highest amount of tries.

That they’ve only got two forwards who average more than 100 metres a match is a big problem. Most of their yards are made out wide. I can genuinely see them losing their last seven straight to finish with six wins all up. A horror story when you consider they won their first four.

The good stats
• 3rd highest line breaks
• Highest tackle breaks
• 2nd lowest penalties conceded

The poor stats
• 5th worst errors a game
• 2nd highest tries conceded

The run home
• Gold Coast Titans (14th) home
• South Sydney Rabbitohs (5th) away
• St George Illawarra Dragons (7th) away
• Sydney Roosters (3rd) home
• Wests Tigers (15th) away
• Melbourne Storm (6th) away
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs (8th) home
• Penrith Panthers (11th) away

I predict one more victories for the Knghts this season to finish on 16 points.

Prediction: 15th.

My predicted final table
1. Brisbane Broncos
2. North Queensland Cowboys
3. Sydney Roosters
4. Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs
5. New Zealand Warriors
6. Melbourne Storm
7. South Sydney Rabbitohs
8. St George Illawarra Dragons
9. Canberra Raiders
10. Penrith Panthers
11. Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
12. Parramatta Eels
13. Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
14. Gold Coast Titans
15. Newcastle Knights
16. Wests Tigers

Predicted finals progression

Week 1
• New Zealand Warriors def St George Illawarra Dragons
• South Sydney Rabbitohs def Melbourne Storm
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs def Brisbane Broncos
• North Queensland Cowboys def Sydney Roosters

Week 2
• Sydney Roosters def New Zealand Warriors
• Brisbane Broncos def South Sydney Rabbitohs

Week 3
• North Queensland Cowboys def Brisbane Broncos
• Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs def Sydney Roosters

Grand final
• North Queensland Cowboys def Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs