As I’ve mentioned previously, I worked with a commentator who would loudly and frequently lambast me with the statement, “Stats don’t play the game for ya.”
His point was that stats meant nothing. I quietly disagreed. I think they are a huge pointer for how a side plays the game, their strengths and their weaknesses.
Sure they don’t play the game for you, but they definitely inform the game plans and the strategy of any decent coach.
But can they predict results?
Let’s put it to the test using this weekend’s matches.
Sydney Roosters versus Canterbury Bulldogs
(home/away respectively) | Roosters | Bulldogs | Result |
Winning Percentage | 66.6% | 50% | Roosters well |
Wins | 6 from 8 (75%) | 4 from 8 (50%) | Roosters decisively |
Recent Form | Won 6 | Lost 1 | Roosters well |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | No | Yes – Reynolds, Tolman | Roosters well |
Tries Scored | 3.6 | 3.1 | Even |
Tries Conceded | 3.1 | 3.8 | Roosters narrowly |
Metres gained | 1425 | 1311 | +114 Roosters |
Metres conceded | 1765 | 1796 | -31 Roosters |
Tackles broken | 32.1 | 26 | +6 Roosters |
Missed tackles | 28.6 | 21.7 | +7 Roosters |
Line breaks | 5.4 | 4.3 | +1.1 Roosters |
Penalties conceded | 6.5 | 6.1 | Even |
Average Score | 22.75 | 20.5 | +2 Roosters |
Friday night’s clash looks pretty clearcut statistically. The Roosters win pretty much all the stats and to top it off the Dogs are missing Josh Reynolds and Aiden Tolman, while the Roosters are pretty much at full strength and hitting top form.
Have a look at both sides’ average metres conceded. Absolutely huge! The average scores suggest a close margin but I’d suggest it might be more than just two points. The Roosters have also won the last three matches between the sides.
Roosters by 14
Wests Tigers versus Melbourne Storm
(home/away respectively) | Wests Tigers | Melbourne Storm | Result |
Winning Percentage | 27.8% | 55.5% | Storm decisively |
Wins | 2 from 9 (22%) | 5 from 9 (55.5%) | Storm decisively |
Recent Form | Lost 5 | Won 2 | Storm decisively |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | Yes – Farah, Tapau | Yes – Slater | Storm narrowly |
Tries Scored | 3.1 | 2.67 | Wests Tigers narrowly |
Tries Conceded | 4.4 | 2.6 | Storm well |
Metres gained | 1400 | 1379 | +21 Wests Tigers |
Metres conceded | 1503 | 1288 | – 215 Storm |
Tackles broken | 24.6 | 23.1 | +1.5 Wests Tigers |
Missed tackles | 26.2 | 23.6 | – 2.6 Storm |
Line breaks | 3.7 | 3.3 | Even |
Penalties conceded | 8.2 | 6.3 | -2 Storm |
Average score | 17.5 | 14.7 | +2.8 Wests Tigers |
As surprising as it seems, the Wests Tigers actually win a fair few of the statistical match ups. They are all to do with attack – there is no question that the boys from Leichardt/Campbelltown can attack. However, their defence can really stink.
The Storm’s defence, conversely, is very good indeed. It will most probably blunt the Tigers’ attack. This is especially the case when you remove captain Robbie Farah and their second-best tackle breaker, suspended lock Martin Tapau.
However, the Storm have really struggled to put on points in the absence of Billy Slater, so the Tigers could just jag this one – but they probably won’t.
It’ll be a fairly close result, one way or the other.
Storm by 8
New Zealand Warriors versus Cronulla Sutherland Sharks
(home/away respectively) | Warriors | Sharks | Result |
Winning Percentage | 50% | 55.5% | Sharks narrowly |
Wins | 5 from 9 (55.5%) | 6 from 10 (60%) | Sharks narrowly |
Recent Form | Lost 2 | Won 3 | Sharks well |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | Yes – Johnson, Thompson | Yes – Fifita, Lewis | Even |
Tries Scored | 4.4 | 3.6 | Warriors narrowly |
Tries Conceded | 3.7 | 2 | Sharks well |
Metres gained | 1367 | 1459 | +92 Sharks |
Metres conceded | 1468 | 1028 | -340 Sharks |
Tackles broken | 28.7 | 30.1 | +1.5 Sharks |
Missed tackles | 26.9 | 22.4 | -2.5 Sharks |
Line breaks | 5.4 | 4.9 | +0.5 Warriors |
Penalties conceded | 5.9 | 7.1 | -1.2 Warriors |
Average score | 24.4 | 19.4 | +5 Warriors |
In spite of being away from home, the Sharks have the stats all over the Warriors. Plus the Warriors have lost their best try assister and second-best line breaker with the injury to Shaun Johnson. Further, Bodene Thompson is out to further skew the stats.
While the Sharks will be without Andrew Fifita and Luke Lewis, those losses pale in comparison to the loss of the Warriors’ mercurial half. Further, the Sharks are in good form and know how to win over the ditch.
Sharks by 10
North Queensland Cowboys versus Canberra Raiders
(home/away respectively) | Cowboys | Raiders | Result |
Winning Percentage | 77.8% | 44.4% | Cowboys well |
Wins | 6 from 9 (66.6%) | 6 from 9 (66.6%) | Even |
Recent Form | Won 3 | Won 1 | Cowboys decisively |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | No | Yes – Williams, Waqa | Cowboys decisively |
Tries Scored | 3.6 | 4.2 | Raiders narrowly |
Tries Conceded | 3.1 | 3.7 | Cowboys narrowly |
Metres gained | 1582 | 1316 | +266 Cowboys |
Metres conceded | 1330 | 1696 | -366 Cowboys |
Tackles broken | 32 | 26 | +6 Cowboys |
Missed tackles | 23.6 | 28 | -4.4 Cowboys |
Line breaks | 4.4 | 4.2 | even |
Penalties conceded | 4.0 | 6.4 | -2.4 Cowboys |
Average score | 22.2 | 24.7 | +2.5 Raiders |
There are two stats in the Raiders’ favour here: they have actually won two-thirds of their away games – one of which was in Cairns – and they can actually score tries on the road. But that’s where it ends. The stats say that the Cowboys will make 632 metres more than the Raiders. That’s massive and match winning.
While North Queensland’s home form is far worse than their away form, it is still hard to see the Raiders – especially without their general Sam Williams – getting over the top of the red-hot Cowboys, especially when they haven’t managed it in Townsville since 2005.
Cowboys 13+
Manly Sea Eagles versus Brisbane Broncos
(home/away respectively) | Sea Eagles | Broncos | Result |
Winning Percentage | 38.9% | 83.3% | Broncos decisively |
Wins | 4 from 8 (50%) | 7 from 9 (77.8%) | Broncos well |
Recent Form | Won 1 | Won 8 | Broncos decisively |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | Yes – Symonds, Buhrer | Yes – McGuire, Blair | Even |
Tries Scored | 3.3 | 3.3 | Even |
Tries Conceded | 4.8 | 2.7 | -2.1 Broncos |
Metres gained | 1313 | 1404 | +91 Broncos |
Metres conceded | 1760 | 1363 | -397 Broncos |
Tackles broken | 20.8 | 23 | +2.2 Broncos |
Missed tackles | 35.9 | 20.2 | -15.7 Broncos |
Line breaks | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 Broncos |
Penalties conceded | 7.3 | 5.9 | -1.4 Broncos |
Average score | 20.2 | 19.4 | +0.8 Sea Eagles |
The Broncos are in scintillating form. While the Sea Eagles have a tiny advantage in the average score department, every other stat is firmly in the Broncos’ favour. The injury to Tom Symonds – one of Manly’s only bright lights this season – has fully negated the absence of Adam Blair and Josh McGuire for the Broncos.
Expect the Broncos to make the extra 488 metres over their opponents, mostly through missing a truckload fewer tackles than their opponents. If they do beat Manly, it will be the first time the Broncos have won away to them since June 2010.
And win they will. Manly’s propensity for missing tackles will be music to the ears of Anthony Milford.
Broncos by 13+
St George Illawarra Dragons versus Newcastle Knights
(home/away respectively) | Dragons | Knights | Result |
Winning Percentage | 44.4% | 33.3% | Dragons narrowly |
Wins | 5 from 9 (55.5%) | 2 from 8 (25%) | Dragons well |
Recent form | Lost 7 | Lost 1 | Knights narrowly |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | Yes – Merrin | Yes – Mullen, Rochow | Dragons well |
Tries Scored | 2.9 | 2.5 | Even |
Tries Conceded | 3.2 | 4.5 | -1.3 Dragons |
Metres gained | 1489 | 1271 | +218 Dragons |
Metres conceded | 1452 | 1682 | -230 Dragons |
Tackles broken | 24 | 29.8 | +4.8 Knights |
Missed tackles | 25.7 | 33.7 | -8 Dragons |
Line breaks | 3.3 | 4.4 | +1.1 Knights |
Penalties conceded | 4.9 | 5.8 | -0.9 Dragons |
Average score | 18.5 | 15.5 | +3 Dragons |
The Dragons have lost seven on the trot, but Newcastle have lost eight of their last ten. The Dragons have been cruelled by injuries and suspension during that period but they are virtually back at full strength now. Further, the stats say the Red V will make 448 more metres than the Knights, a match-winning stat in itself.
The Dragons really struggle to score tries but so do the Knights when away. Without Jarrod Mullen it just got even harder for the Novocastrians. Further, their defence is nowhere near as good as the Dragons’.
One factor that might come into play is the sacked-coach rebound. However, it is hard to see the Knights winning at Kogarah.
Dragons by 8
South Sydney Rabbitohs versus Penrith Panthers
(home/away respectively) | Rabbitohs | Panthers | Result |
Winning Percentage | 61.1% | 38.9% | Rabbitohs decisively |
Wins | 7 from 9 (77.8%) | 2 from 8 (25%) | Rabbitohs decisively |
Recent form | Won 2 | Lost 3 | Rabbitohs Decisively |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | no | Yes – Moylan, Wallace, Docker, Kite, Idris, Whare, Plum, Watene-Zelezniak | Rabbitohs Decisively |
Tries Scored | 4.67 | 2.4 | +2.27 Rabbitohs |
Tries Conceded | 3.2 | 3.9 | -0.7 Rabbitohs |
Metres gained | 1441 | 1301 | +140 Rabbitohs |
Metres conceded | 1365 | 1562 | -197 Rabbitohs |
Tackles broken | 29.7 | 25 | +4.7 Rabbitohs |
Missed tackles | 19 | 41.8 | -22.8 Rabbitohs |
Line breaks | 5.9 | 3.9 | +2 Rabbitohs |
Penalties conceded | 6.0 | 6.8 | -0.8 Rabbitohs |
Average score | 25.1 | 13.1 | +12 Rabbitohs |
Two primary things to note: the Rabbitohs win every stat, decisively in most cases; and the Panthers have the worst injury toll in the NRL.
It has been a horror year for Penrith after such a good one in 2014. The news gets worse too as the Rabbitohs have just started to hit ominous form after a mediocre season to date.
In the Round 17 fixture the Panthers beat a Greg Inglis-less Rabbitohs 20-6. However, that side featured Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Peter Wallace, Dean Whare and Nigel Plum. Those men won’t play in this match. Inglis, fresh from scoring three tries, will.
It is hard to see the Panthers getting close to the Rabbitohs.
Rabbitohs by 20+
Gold Coast Titans Vs Parramatta Eels
Titans | Eels | Result | |
Winning Percentage | 33.3% | 38.9% | Eels narrowly |
Wins (home/away respectively) | 2 from 9 (22%) | 4 from 9 (44.4%) | Eels well |
Recent Form | Lost 5 | Lost 2 | Eels well |
Pivotal injuries/suspensions | Yes – Zillman | Yes – Norman, Watmough, Sandow | Titans narrowly |
Tries Scored | 3.2 | 3.56 | Even |
Tries Conceded | 5.1 | 4.1 | +1 Titans |
Metres gained | 1444 | 1354 | +90 Titans |
Metres conceded | 1497 | 1380 | -117 Eels |
Tackles broken | 20.9 | 19.3 | +1.6 Titans |
Missed tackles | 41.1 | 37.8 | -3.3 Eels |
Line breaks | 3.8 | 2.8 | +1 Titans |
Penalties conceded | 7.6 | 7 | even |
Average score | 18.9 | 18.6 | Even |
There is not so much as a struck match in this game statistically. Notably, both have diabolical defence. Usually in games like this you’d go for the home team but statistically the Eels are better on the road than the Titans are at home. In fact, the last time either of these sides beat the other at home was the Titans back in 2013.
This match will be won by the Titans because they have virtually their full-strength side on the pitch, with only Will Zillman missing, while the Eels are missing Anthony Watmough, Corey Norman and the recently released Chris Sandow.
Titans 13+
Boydy-In-Brisbane
Guest
I took a Footy Tab Pick The Margins on the weekend using your stats tips and guess what? So far far only one right out of 7 games so I'm guessing the answer to your question is: No, stats CANNOT pick the weekends winners.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Tim, I have just put 50 on the top 4 (chooks, bunnies, cows and Bronx) to win by 13+ this weekend. If i win I will be using the cash to fly me and a mate down for the big dance. Hope you haven't steered me wrong buddy.
Tim Gore
Expert
Tipping is about tipping, not support Geoffrey! No one was happier than I when Edrick went under the sticks!
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
You'll find there win margins mate.
Jamieson Murphy
Roar Guru
Did you go head to head, or by win margins?
Tim Gore
Expert
OK, for the record I've taken the above as an 8 leg margin multi for a lark. The potential payout on a $5 stake is $10,000. Seems my stats are at odds with the bookies...
Tim Gore
Expert
Oh crikey... It could be investigated but it would take a loooooooooong time.
Adam
Roar Rookie
Great work Tim! I think stats do play a role as I would assume that the coaching staff look at the stats week to week going into each game......so why shouldn't we! Also do you think certain teams could be called "mudlarks" in the testing games influenced by weather and are there any stats that show this? Cheers!!
John
Guest
Ah *self facepalm*.
Geoff from Bruce Stadium
Guest
Noted you didn't pick the Raiders last week Tim. Ye of little faith. Going to stick your neck out against the Cowboys this week? Should be getting a bit easier to tip against sides at the bottom of the ladder who have little hope of making the 8. The Knights, Titans, and Eels really fell away last week.
Lord Funkington
Guest
sellout. the world needs contrarians.
Tim Gore
Expert
Yes, but those tips are done on Wednesdays before I've done my analysis! So its what I know before the past weekends stats are incorporated.
Tim Gore
Expert
Finding the stats is actually researching the sackings, matching the dates and searching on the wonderful http://www.rugbyleagueproject.org/ it is a long winded process. But I know I'm going to do it soon...
maximillian
Guest
Tim, love your articles but do you do this type of analysis weekly? I notice your on top of the ROAR NRL tipping comp so maybe there is something in the stats after all?
P.Marlowe
Guest
Cheers Tim - nice article by the way. Could not find any league stats but did find the attached regarding European soccer: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23724517
Tim Gore
Expert
Yes, it would. Last time they scored more than 30? Round 5 2015 - against the Warriors...
Tim Gore
Expert
Yeah, Lolohea is a chance to step up.
Tim Gore
Expert
Rendigitti = Adam Reynolds
Renegade
Roar Guru
Hi Tim, Yes I guess something like 32-10 would be putting on a score for the Sharkies ;)
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
????-You've got me one that one mate!