After two hard-fought wins against the Springboks and Argentina, the Wallabies have a real opportunity to win the Rugby Championship in Sydney next week, provided they don’t start believing their own press.
The secret to winning Test matches is pretty simple really. Whichever team works the hardest for the longest period usually wins. New Zealand has traditionally been the hardest working team and consequently the most successful.
While the All Blacks remain the deserved favourite, there is a growing optimism across Wallaby supporters that perhaps the Wallabies are emerging once again as a real force.
Irrespective of the outcome of these next two Tests, the Wallabies can be confident in the fact that they have strengthened their depth, the importance of which cannot be overstated. Anyone who watched the Wallabies defeat Argentina could see that the Argentinian bench players were not of the same quality as the starting XV. Consequently, the score blew out in the final stage of the match.
To date Wallabies Coach Michael Cheika has managed his squad well, and the starting XV is beginning to become evident, while the bench players can more than hold their own when they take to the park.
While my hope is always that the Wallabies win every match they play, it would still be nice to see an underdog rise up during the Rugby World Cup and have a shot at the crown.
Is this likely? Sadly, the answer is no.
These are the pools:
Pool A – Australia, England, Wales, Fiji, Uruguay
Pool B – South Africa, Samoa, Japan, Scotland, USA
Pool C – New Zealand, Argentina, Tonga, Georgia, Namibia
Pool D – France, Ireland, Italy, Canada, Romania
Pool A is arguably the most difficult of the four pools, with Fiji and Uruguay no chance of going through to the quarter finals. The top-two teams go through in each pool, so Australia, Wales and England are in a fight to the death in the early stages, with one to be eliminated.
Fiji suffers from a simple problem: they lack discipline in the forwards and always have done so. I recall playing against them many years ago and our strategy was to ‘bore them to death’ by keeping the ball in the forwards and playing a tight game by forcing them to commit to rucks and mauls. The more scrums and lineouts the better, as these are things that the Fijians hate – and consequently are not very good at. They want to run – and if they get enough balls they can cause any side in the world grief. However, their tight forward play sucks.
At best Fiji, and to a lesser extent Uruguay, can play a spoiler role. Uruguay, or ‘Los Teros‘ as they are known, are ranked 19th in the world – and for good reason. They have never beaten Argentina in 46 outings, so it is most unlikely that they are going to set the world on fire in 2015. They have played Fiji twice in their history and have not beaten them either, so while they have done well to get to the World Cup, their chances of getting any further are 1000 to 1.
Pool B sees Samoa, Japan, Scotland and the USA fighting it out for second spot. Samoa is ranked ninth, Scotland is ranked 11, Japan 13 and USA 16th.
Samoa are the most likely to take second spot, and are probably the only side seriously capable of challenging South Africa for top of the pool. Samoa’s chances of some success have increased as a result of their players playing professionally in Europe and this is evident in the quality of their play. Unlike Tonga and Fiji, Samoa have got their act together, and without doubt are the most formidable of the Pacific Island teams.
Scotland will be technically sound, but may lack the firepower needed across the park to progress.
Pool C will be a walk in the park for New Zealand. Argentina should go through, but could be challenged by Tonga if the Tongans get properly organised. Georgia and Namibia have no chance.
Pool D should be relatively straightforward, with Ireland a shoe-in for the top spot. Italy, Canada and Romania will be trying to disrupt France’s chances of coming in at Number 2. Unlikely but possible.
So, the quarter final teams could well be:
1. Australia
2. England or Wales
3. South Africa
4. Samoa
5. New Zealand
6. Argentina
7. France
8. Ireland
If that’s the case, the likely quarter final contestants are:
QF 1 – South Africa vs England
QF 2 – New Zealand vs France
QF 3 – Ireland vs Argentina
QF 4 – Australia vs Samoa
Semi-finals will see the following games:
SF 1 – Winner QF1 v Winner QF2
SF 2 – Winner QF3 v Winner QF4
Semi-final 1
Chances are South Africa will be playing New Zealand, although the latter always seems to struggle against France, who saves their best performances for the men in black.
Nevertheless, New Zealand has a tremendous side with enormous depth once again, and will be the team to beat.
South Africa are coming into great form and provided they do not have a brain explosion and manage their bench a lot better than they did against the Wallabies in the last Test, they can topple England, who will be a tough nut to crack.
Semi-final 2
Ireland should play Australia, although Samoa is not to be underestimated. Argentina have a snowflake’s chance in hell of advancing any further than the quarter-finals, assuming they get that far. My only suggestion is that they pray for a miracle – they are going to need it.
Ireland on the other hand are the real dark horses. They are traditionally very tough for Wallaby teams to beat, as many past international players will attest. The current Irish squad is a very good one, and they did not become the Six Nations champions for the last two years by accident.
While it is anyone’s guess, I would not be surprised to see a New Zealand vs Australia final at the 2015 Rugby World Cup, although that is not to say the Wallabies do not have their own Achilles heel. They need to improve their general kicking game considerably, and ensure that the first person on the plane is their best goal kicker, followed by their next best goal-kicker.
Gunslinger
Guest
Bob, Those statistics that you quote are certainly correct, but two of those matches were in Brisbane where they never lose. They will not have the same home ground advantage in the Northern Hemisphere. As for the draw in Sydney, they was a game they satisfied neither side, mainly due to the weather. However, one thing that did occur at that match was the sin-binning of Wyatt Crockett when the ABs were in a point-scoring position, a call that Peyper later admitted to getting wrong. I think that Taylorman is probably being a little realistic in his post, and the Wallaby performances, in this year's previous RC matches, is not going to cut it against the All Blacks.
Graeme
Guest
There's not really much Foley can do. In the soup's this has been a terrible year for all Australian kickers. CLF has been terrible and wouldn't warrant making the Wallabies on his kicking alone. Harris is not the first choice kicker in his team. Graham, admittedly not the sharpest tool in the toolshed, has preferred Cooper as goal kicker when he's been fit. But even if Ozzie Mike is the best kicker in Australia, which he is, who would you replace with him in the Wallabies? Toumua?
Graeme
Guest
I don't think there is any 'arguably' about it. Pool A is the pool of death. To make matters worse, none of Australia, England or Wales can afford to rest players during any of stage matches, as opposed to the other top nations that can afford to cotton ball their talent until the finals. Fiji is in no way a bad team, playing a depleted team against them runs a serious risk of an upset. And if the final result of the pool is a three way draw then the team going out will probably be the team with the weakest victory against Uruguay, so no resting players against them either. The team that tops our pool has a good chance to go through to the final. But the battered team that comes second will probably not be treated sympathetically by either the springboks or the all-blacks if they make it that far. We are not favorites to win our group stage, but if we don't we are effectively out of contention.
Zero Gain
Guest
3rd spot in the pool eh, we will see about that! Won't forget your prediction either 'flying hori'.
Handles
Roar Guru
"not one of the top eight sides fears the Wobblies" Only NZ has a winning record against Australia in their last 10 encounters. So if they don't "fear" the Wallabies, they are ignoring recent history. Losing Records - Top 8 South Africa - 6 of the last 10 Ireland - 6 of the last 10 England - 5 of the last 10 Wales - 10 of the last 10 France - 8 of the last 10 Argentina - 9 of the last 10 Only
Handles
Roar Guru
Rich, sorry. I know this might shake your self-absorbed view of the world, but in Rugby, England is a once a year distraction for us Aussies, if that. In cricket - sure, the Ashes are it. But Rugby, nah. The All Blacks first, Springboks second, Wales third, and England trailing in fourth. I don't think last years England game actually made it to free to air TV, but I might be wrong.
warrenexpatinnz
Roar Guru
Whatever the results over the next two weeks the selections trialed by Cheika have me believing that he has Aussie rugby in his best interests. Yes not everyone will agree with his choices but we aren't sitting in on every training, every coaches discussion to get the feeling of this group of players. We don't have the endless talent on hand like the ABs but 2003 and 2007 show belief trumps skill. Enjoying what my Wallabies are showing me, the heart and toughness now evident, just what you need for crunch games in the RWC where blowouts are rarely seen.
AJ
Guest
I think the 1995 team would top the current lot all things being equal such as fitness, professionalism. 1995 didn't play to their potential imo and should've finished higher up.
cookie
Roar Guru
I prefer to look at it by asking the question... Who is capable and has a proven record of beating NZ? They are... - South Africa - Australia - France - England Any other team is going to rely on one of those 4 knocking NZ out in the quarters or semi's. Otherwise the only other team complete enough to go all the way is Ireland... They have the cattle to beat NZ but haven't done it yet despite coming agonisingly close... QF1 & QF2 is likely to contain the 3 sides that are capable of beating NZ and have an innate desire to do so.. Further historically NZ have succumbed to these sides at the RWC .. particularly France So from my view.. the final winner will come from the QF3 & QF 4 Groups.. Nominally Ireland and (Australia or England) I say this because if anyone beats NZ in the QF or SF they will probably be pushed to exhaustion and suffer heavy casualties whereas the QF3 & QF4 should have a smoother ride thru to the final. I'd say... If NZ get thru to the final in one piece they'd probably win it.. unless they have had the absolute Shite beaten out of them in the QF & SF.. then maybe just maybe Ireland and Australia could put them to the sword, the latter more likely to do so. Irelands best hope is to face England in the final as they have consistently beaten them... Australia on the other hand other than NZ won't be so fussed who they play in the final..
Katipo
Guest
I can't see what Cheika is doing to address the Wallabies critical goal kicking weakness. This persistence with Cooper - he's never had high percentages. Foley - having a bad year. Giteau - remember Scotland? His kicking costs tests matches. Kurtley also hit and miss. lealiifano has potential but he isn't getting game time. No Harris. What's the plan. Who is the sharp shooter?
WSM58
Guest
Get your facts straight mate - The Wallabies beat England in the 1991 RWC Final.
nickoldschool
Roar Guru
Well said birdy. Perso I wish there were more northerners on here but we cant force them to read the roar. A NH expert, just one, would be great, or a southerner who has lived and played there. What frustrates me the most are 'statements' about NH rugby from southerners who have no interest nor understanding of the game there. Its usually based on clichés read in the local press by equally ignorant journos. And am not talking in depth knowledge, just basic stuff really for someone who wants to have an opinion about something and voice it. Fortunately, or not, its 'only' rugby. Completely different story when it comes to politics, history or news in general. but thats another debate.
Bunratty
Guest
"...and ensure that the first person on the plane is their best goal kicker, followed by their next best goal-kicker." AMEN!
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Very true!
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Several early English losses to Wallabies were due to one eyed refereeing in Australia
flying hori
Guest
sorry, but aussie will fold in their pool, they are not physicaly and mentally tough enough to go beyond 3rd spot, watch next week and you will see what i mean, their set piece is their achilles heel.
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Very judicious True
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
Very judicious. Wallabies won't get out of pool!
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
But Wallabies have been pummelled by England in recent games at Twickenham. England also beat Wobblies in 1991, 2003,2007 in RWC. Wallabies on for almighty hiding!
Wallaby thrasher
Guest
No,no,no! The quarter final teams will certainly include England and possibly Wales or Australia but likely the former. You blokes have to remember that Australian sporting hubris generally precedes an Australian sporting fall. Baggy Greens were going to beat England 5-0 in Ashes, eh? Not really!