I write this article on picking my pack to play the All Blacks as someone who has long been out of the loop.
Here are a few of my thoughts on just some of the considerations that might be involved in selecting my pack.
Playing a side as competent, competitive and resilient as the All Blacks demands that enormous thought be put into your game plans and the selections to implement them.
When we look at the situation, we must determine how we can cover up what we will not be so good at and what we can do that will be better than what they can do. We have to get an edge somewhere.
Those decisions are part of how we form priorities and strategies for our game-plans. They are pivotal to the selection process as we assess the comparative strengths and weaknesses of our players.
My best guess is that the lineout is the edge – I think that this year their scrum will be good and they will be certainly competitive in the other aspects of forward play.
That being the case, I am going for four jumpers – among other considerations, we will then have the chance to contest their throws. The corollary would be that we would work hard to eliminate any consequent gaps in our lineout, as the All Blacks real lineout strength is exploiting opposition gaps.
McCaw was totally predictable. The 2011 Cup final is not the only example of the thought they use in the lineout.
The scrum will be a cover up job in which case I will pick the best scrummaging props and I will pick a back five where every player will work to become a unit with the front row now. There is no room for anyone who does not bind tight or falls off the scrum under pressure.
I could actually see a pack, reflecting the choices for the scrum and the lineouts being effective at the ruck and maul, given two conditions.
1. Everyone knows the team patterns and the communication systems work. If you have possession, you know what is going to happen next. That then gives you an enormous advantage in getting to the next ruck/maul. My own personal bias for variety with the ball is an important corollary.
2. We are aggressive. It doesn’t matter if it is their ball or our ball. For me it is not just a question of the benefits from controlled aggression. It is that this aggression is often indicative of a switched on mindset, and this is just as important and applicable in the tackle too.
Maybe a ‘flyer’ is not so essential as the All Blacks may not really have one – can McCaw really be classified as one these days? You could certainly pick a pack with a degree of mobility while satisfying other priorities. Many of my previous comments re the ruck and maul and the tackle are pertinent to this issue.
The pack I have selected stems from the application of the principles I have discussed. There are two potential problems with this application (I hope the principles are sound).
1. I know damn all about the modern game.
2. I know damn all about the current players.
I know certain players are open to criticism from the last two games. But they have talent and it is the coach’s job to extract it.
Finally, for me personally, how would my selections stand up in regard to my own personal list of some desirable qualities for individual players? Mental strength and brains?
God, I hope so – there are five national and provincial captains in the pack. Physical strength? Don’t know – I am not prepared to say yes.
Controlled aggression? There is good potential there. My selections would be as follows.
James Slipper
Stephen Moore
Greg Holmes
James Horwill
Rob Simmons
Scott Fardy
Scott Higginbotham
David Pocock
Michael Hooper has some great skills but I do not know about his scrummaging and cleaning out. Let him run riot when everyone is tired.
As for Will Skelton, the Highlanders taught the rugby world how to reduce his impact and he has shortcomings in jumping and scrummaging at this stage of his career.
I know there is a body of thought that says play both Hooper and Pocock while retaining Skelton, which leaves just two lineout jumpers, but that is not for me.
Scott Sio? I would like to see him play first up before I made a decision about him.
In brief, here are my suggestions. Cover up the scrum, accentuate the lineout and compete hard at the ruck/maul.
Steve Prendergrast
Guest
And WB's never likely to work it out either - brains in short supply across there - must be in the water or something...........
RobC
Roar Guru
Gday Roy No scrum papers, only a library collection of youtubes videos manuals subscription and books about it, and related topics. Actually, my interest in Rugby is broader, but scrums require more work to analyse. Not because its more difficult, only because, media doesn't do it well enough imo. The paper I'm working on is much more exciting :) public policy on economic development, human capital / labour economics and knowledge based economies. Basically job creation. I am piecing together a social graph of Rugby coaches and their fortunes. But that's taking time. Kepu, I think is more suited to the modern scrum engagement rules which defocuses the hit. His core strength is a plus for WB scrum. But Mario Led will know what's better, for sure
Roy Hose
Roar Rookie
Hi Rob C I have a painful memory of a game, not all that long ago, when the Abs rans us around and poured through us – precisely 2 minutes after the kick off. My concern about Kepu predates Newlands, I hope you are right. My plans for the Abs are out the window. The particular praise John Eales had for Rob Simmons led me to think that Rob might well understand the old 5 W.H. approach to getting things done – or, if not, soon would. At that time John did not give me any impression that he was considering anyone else as a comparative talent. Rob, have you ever written papers on the scrum or other aspects? Be interested. Peoples, I have no more comments to make on this subject.
RobC
Roar Guru
Gday Roy! Yes, I do look into scrums a bit. Not just the action, but factors which lead to it. I think scrums are very much like the iceberg where the action is just the tip, and it is part of the ecosystem around it. I think for his weight, Holmes is a superb scrummager. Also, he really focuses on having a good bind with his lock, and the LHP in front of him - and his hooker when they are attacking the opponent scrum. He also works hard to get a good angle on the opposite LHP. I have a diff view of Kepu. I think he's the strongest around. The issue he faced in Newlands vs Boks is Skelton not supporting the scrum spine. Kepu should have started vs Pumas. ABs will always try to run us around :). Thats how they win games! Once were a little buggered, then they ram or pour through us. re selection...? I think its driven by the base game. Game 1 and 2 were very much like the Reds game, including when Toomua was on. Except game 2 straightened a lot more when it became apparent the Pumas started to lose collisions. Im still a little surprised what big drop Pumas was in this year vs 2014. I suspect a big score this weekend by SBs.
Peter Hughes
Guest
hehehe - arrogant huibris hehehe - I'm a Wallaby supporter and realist. ABs are far and away no 1 in the world for a reason. You guys have obviously not worked out WHY yet. It starts at numbers 1 to 5 in the forward pack including their unequalled depth. Their no 2 pack is as great as the no 1 pack and their no 3 pack would probably win the world cup also.
Old Bugger
Guest
Fair enough Squirrel - I like it that you consider McCaw, Whitelock, Retallick and Kaino, all in the NZ 2nd row, are not crap. Now we just need to remind Franks, Coles and Woody in the front row and Read at last man, to pull their socks up because Squirrel, thinks you're crap.
Squirrel
Roar Rookie
The NZ pack apart from the 2nd row is crap
Roy Hose
Roar Rookie
Hi Rob C, You do put some thought into the scrum, don’t you? We could well be in trouble. I do not know about the cattle. If Slipper is not 100% then play Sio who is everyone’s first or second choice L.H. I wanted to see him start before I made a decision on him – I was not entirely convinced during the S.R. season. We may not have that luxury. I think Holmes is our best T.H. – shame the Rebel is hurt. For all his size Kepu disappoints me as a T.H. A good judge I know says it would not take long to turn him into the best L.H. in the country. He has played there before, any opinion? I suspect Big Wil will be in the run on team even if the scrum (and the lineout) is not his forte. In general play, I will be surprised if the Abs did not see the Highlanders cut him down low before he got a head of steam up. It would be crazy to nominate your V.C. one day and then not select him the next. If you are right about the Abs running us around then could Hooper prove more useful? Surely to God Pocock, the next forward picked after Moore, will not be at 8 while Big Wil is playing lock. Be interesting to see what Cheika does. The pack will be different from the one I nominated. I have yet to notice any 2 people select identical packs – to me that spells out that we may have a problem on our hands. Let us hope that Cheikas’s is the one that we should all have selected in the first place.
Roy Hose
Roar Rookie
Hi Rob C The best the WBs have played for some years.
Machooka
Roar Guru
@ RuckingOath Fair enough... as I did have my tongue firmly planted in cheek... cross my heart :) But good to know I sort of fluked 2 out of 41 as to who are the real Maori in the almighty ABs' squad. Interesting to note your emphatic denunciation regards Kiwi commentators. That'll sting for sure ! But for an outsider, and very much an 'Straylan, I'm truely fascinated by language... all languages. And as Rugby is a world game... well it just feeds my own need to say... bon appetit. Are you Maori ?... not that is matters as such... but I get the feeling you are. I have several Maori mates who are of royal blood. And as I'm a 'Straylan mongrel we have some fantastic banter around this time of year. Rugby is our passion... and common language. Oh... don't worry about Mumm... it's best not to mention Mumm which is why I couldn't resist asking you :)
RobC
Roar Guru
Roy I think whilst AB will try to move WBs around the park a bit, I believe they may target the WB scrum early on. For several reasons including getting the Ref on their side. In SR, the Aus scrummagers have a clear advantage of the NZ. So in theory the national side should be the same. But practice will be very different Slips will be playing below 100%. Holmes Big Will scrum defence is not yet proven. ABs should just do what SB did. On their feed, take the hit then drive back the TH side, taking an inside angle to test both Holmes and Big Willy. Finally WB scrums like how they defend. They rush up very quickly, to get momentum. So, they should let the WBs rush and let angle the midline a little. Then push back through the exposed WB pod once the new midline is settled. Or just left the Ref 'see' the pre-engage / hit-chase
Roy Hose
Roar Rookie
Hi Pick & Go, Thanks. As someone who waffled on about the importance of an aggressive attitude at the ruck/maul and the tackle –and about the drive in contact, I appreciate your comments on physicality. I defer to John Eales who recently stated that the particular skill of Rob Simmons as a lineout general, or words to that effect, demanded his selection – no argument. Incidentally, that skill, together with a raft of other measures form the basis of my hope that we might take a couple of their throws, or at least give them some pressured ball. The where and the when of any steals would be important questions. Clearly, I do not share the confidence of others that we can edge their scrum or their work around the paddock, unaided from other sources – parity might perhaps be possible in this latter area. It would be great if I am proved wrong.
kesmcc
Guest
you do realize that before it went to uncontested scrums when the abs were "being destroyed" sam whitelock was in the bin and they were playing a 7 man scrum. not hard to destroy a scrum when its 100+ kgs lighter
RuckingOath
Roar Rookie
There are no Kiwi commentators who are fluent with their Maori tongue. Hikawera Elliot TJ Perenara Those are the only two names in the entire 41 man squad that would be considered Maori names. Hika is simple enough. Perenara might be the only one that would give you trouble, all NZ commentators pronounce his name wrong. It's not Pear-anaarra. It's Pere-nara short n sharp roll the R's. I didn't mention Mumm because i haven't seen enough of him of late to judge him. Palu is a few years past the track of being a real threat.
PiratesRugby
Guest
Whatever we might think or common sense might suggest, Chieka will persist with Skelton and Hooper. He will juggle the pack to accomodate those two players. If it means less presence at the breakdown, weakness in the set piece, holding back Arnold, Jones etc or keeping Pocock on the bench, then so be it. There will always be a ready chorus of fans to say how good Hooper and Skelton actually played and how it was actually someone else's fault.
USrugger
Guest
A BIG caution. Has everyone forgotten that before they went to uncontested...poor application of an obsure safety rule...the ABs were being destroyed. In fact, I cannot remember when last I saw a NZ pack get so dominated in scrums. The 'uncontested final 20 seems to have caused temporary amnesia. A good question should be: had the scrums not been uncontested at that location, what might the outcome have been? The Bok A squad dominated both the Wallies & the Kiwis, which potentially holds great danger at a RWC.
Ranginohoora Tunoho
Guest
to all you WB suporters and critiques,stop dogging you team,just get behind them,cause when you back your Team Publicly,you add that ex-factor to there being against our AB.s next Saturday,man as a Staunch AB's Supporter,I believe its gonna be a close game,cause right across the field man for man I believe there is not much difference,you proved it against both Box and Argentina,so stop bagging your team and get behind them.....I remember when John Eels was Captain Fantastic for the WB's,and you's beat us over here with his penalty kick on Fulltime,and us Kiwi's were dogging our AB's.../he said after the match you the NZ Public are the biggest Critiques of NZ All Blacks,so be proud of your Team and Support Them because I don't believe there is much between you's and us and may the best Team Win plz Go the All Blacks
Old Bugger
Guest
ck I think sheek is just having at chuckle at your expense mate....
canadiankiwi
Guest
At his first All Black training camp, Steve Hansen told Tameifuna, according to NZ press, a specific weight target he was expected to get down to in order to earn a re-call. Tameifuna never met that target and never got a re-call. Everyone talks about playing an expansive game of running rugby to match the All Blacks but it is simply talk unless your athletes have the core fitness, especially the forward pack, to run and run and run for 80 minutes. There is a reason the All Blacks win their tests in the last quarter, they are fitter than their opponents ( along with their bench players being superior rugby players).
canadiankiwi
Guest
Sheek. I am Canadian born and raised. And your nationality is of no importance in recognizing the difference between an athlete who is fit and in condition one would expect of a professional athlete and one who is clearly not. There is no excuse for a Will Skelton to be the weight that he is (140k+kg). Brodie Retallick and Eben Etzebeth are as tall (or taller) and are very large men themselves but both clearly recognize the importance of fitness and conditioning.