The premiership is a three-horse race (with not a Bronco in sight)

In the blink of an eye, this year’s NRL premiership race has been reduced to just three viable candidates.

Though we start every season with 16 hopeful clubs, realistically, only half of them are serious premiership contenders.

As the season unfolds, that number dwindles to approximately six, with three to four favourites, and a couple of outside contenders, followed by another couple of ‘roughie’ teams that are doing little more than making up the eight for the finals series – but are still capable of winning a game or two come September.

However, this year, with five rounds still remaining until the finals, it’s a three-horse race, and that’s it.

This year’s competition winners will not be anyone else but the South Sydney Rabbitohs, the Sydney Roosters or the North Queensland Cowboys, and you can quote me on that.

Hold your venom, Brisbane Broncos fans – I’ll come back to you in a minute.

I’m willing to be brave and courageous by putting a line through the Titans, Knights, Tigers and Eels right now, and don’t feel the need to waste any more time even considering their chances. We can just move on.

In the next tier of hopefuls, the Panthers, Dragons and Raiders have all had up-and-down seasons, with a combination of injuries and inconsistent play ensuring they can’t really be considered premiership contenders. For these clubs, a finals appearance would constitute a very good season, considering their individual plights.

However, none of those teams are going to be holding the trophy, so we can scratch them as well.

Manly currently sit outside the top eight, but they’ll be galvanised by the sacking of Geoff Toovey and will finish the season strong. They’re a team no one wants to face in week one of the finals, and they have serious ‘upset potential’ in them. Unfortunately they have a tough run home and a top-eight berth – let alone a premiership – may be a dream too far.

Killing off the chances of the Warriors and Storm are the season-ending injuries to arguably their best players, Shaun Johnson and Billy Slater respectively.

The leg injury to Johnson, in particular, ends any slim hopes New Zealand had of winning, because he’s that important to the Woe Woes.

Slater’s injury isn’t quite as devastating to the Storm, because Cameron Munster is a very good young player, however Melbourne have been a little scratchy this year, especially of late. Though you never want to underestimate a team coached by Craig Bellamy, and still contains the likes of Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk, the Storm have down been downgraded to ‘dark horse’ status rather than ‘favourites’ for 2015.

Of the remaining teams, the Sharks have pretty good depth across the park and are currently nicely positioned on the ladder, well within striking distance of a top-four finish come season end. They have a good mix of experienced players and exciting youth, but I worry about their attack, and in particular their halves, who will be found out against elite opposition and coaching.

Likewise, as great as the Bulldogs forward pack can be – a vital ingredient to success in the finals – their decision-making in attack, fifth tackle options, and propensity for making dumb mental errors all hold them back from being taken seriously as a premiership threat.

We can wax lyrical about Des Hasler’s coaching and the skills of their big men, but I’ve seen little to suggest the Dogs have what it takes to consistently win big games.

That leaves us with the Broncos, Cowboys, Roosters and Rabbitohs.

Despite their loss to Manly on Saturday, the Broncos remain on top of the ladder, but are still fighting for respect.

I can assure Brisbane fans, they – and their team – have my admiration, and they certainly can win this year. However, I simply don’t think they will.

I suspect that some magic from a Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston or Roger Tuivasa-Sheck may be the difference in a finals match that will bring Brisbane unstuck. The Broncos will give it a real shake, but they’re a year ahead of schedule, and it will show some time in September.

Which leaves us with the Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Roosters.

Of those three, I’m the most comfortable predicting that the Chooks won’t win the title, as I still have some doubts about their decision-making. However, that’s extreme nit picking; I could definitely see the Roosters winning it all.

A Cowboys vs Rabbitohs grand final would be pretty special though.

The competition’s best player versus last year’s competition winners; that’s a mouth-watering sub-plot that should excite all rugby league fans.

Yet far from being the one-man team of the past, North Queensland have been getting solid performances from right across their squad. There is no question that Thurston is still the architect for the Cowboys’ fantastic play, but he’s getting plenty of support, and that makes the team even more dangerous.

Winning in Sydney is no longer an issue for the club, so it seems the only thing they’ll need to overcome is the referees and the dreaded ‘Sydney-centric media’. Good luck with that Cowboys…

Meanwhile, South Sydney, the darlings of the NRL, have done the almost impossible this season: fly under the radar, despite being the defending premiers. After all the press last year about their long-awaited premiership, the Bunnies have quietly gone about their business this season.

They’ve had some injury concerns, an early season off-field incident, the dumping of Issac Luke and his signing with the Warriors, and suggestions they can’t win without Sam Burgess, but other than these minor news pieces Souths have largely been a non-story this year.

This has enabled Michael McGuire and his coaching staff to concentrate on their title defence, and have their team ready for finals football. They’re still the team to beat, and have timed their run nicely.

So there it is, a three-horse race for the 2015 NRL premiership.

Now that I’ve put myself out there for intense ridicule, I look forward to anyone but those three teams celebrating come October 4 at ANZ Stadium.