Five games that will determine the AFL's top 8

I am sad. I’ve come to the realisation that there are only 6,572 minutes of AFL football remaining in 2015.

Yes, we’re well and truly in the home stretch, where games are no longer worth just four points. A well-timed strong performance can be the difference between making and missing the eight, or winning a double chance.

With that in mind, here’s a brief look at the five remaining games that will likely shape who makes finals and in what condition they make it.

To help colour your thinking, here’s a whole bunch of pretty looking numbers.

Improper Projections: Round 19
There’s a couple of tweaks, mostly to the bottom part of the ladder, in the latest run of Improper Projections.

For what it’s worth, seven of the top eight are currently in place, with the Cats and Crows jostling for that final spot in September.

I’m still holding onto Adelaide’s finals chances, giving them the eighth seed and an honourable first-round loss to the Tigers. The other change in the positions that matter is to move West Coast up from fourth to third, a recognition of the increased chance that they finish top two, and avoid a derby final until (possibly) preliminary final week.

The ‘Pies are fading faster than a Buddy Franklin shot on goal, the Giants have a tough slate of games, and Port Adelaide are, unfortunately, one game too far back. They maintain the fabled mathematical chance of making it, but that’s about it.

In case you missed it, those dastardly Western Bulldogs are all-but locked in to the top 8 now – it would take a catastrophic 0-5 performance to see them miss from here. They do have a reasonably tough run: a must-win game against the Power, a re-match with the Eagles, and Saturday afternoon showdown with the ‘Roos (which may end up being a battle for a home final, just quietly) along with games against the Dees and Lions.

A 2-3 run would have them finish with 13 wins, which would be enough particularly as the Crows and Geelong both have two point situations to manage.

The Dockers still have the edge on bigger brother to this point. Fremantle looked better over the weekend against the Giants, who still had finals aspirations.

They get their All Australian back pocket Michael Johnson back this week or next, and he’ll rejuvenate the Docker’s back line and attack from half back. Fremantle look a far more threatening proposition forward of the ball without Hayden Ballantyne, and have put up 13 per cent more scoring shots in the two games he has been absent since injury his shoulder.

But we’ll learn a little more about how this finals match up will play out in two weeks’ time. The Round 20 Western Derby is one of the five games to shape the eight.

I want to give a shout out to Tony Corke of Matter of Stats fame, who has provided me with some of the fodder for this piece. Tony runs a weekly simulation of the remaining games in the regular season, to shed light on the ones that matter most. For any quantitatively-inclined footy fans, it’s a must read.

Number Five: Round 19, Geelong v Sydney, Kardinia Park, Saturday Night
Round 19 is shaping as an absolute corker when it comes to games to influence the finishing order, and in my judgement Saturday night’s Kardinia Park match up between the Cats and Swans is the fifth-most important.

The Cats are using up the remainder of their nine lives very quickly – I still think they’re merely prolonging their inevitable decline. But they’re in the hunt for that eighth spot on the ladder, and would do well to win this one against a wounded Swans team at home.

They are essentially in a dogfight with Adelaide for the eighth spot on the ladder; a battle which will come right down to the wire, if you catch my drift.

(Photo: Michael Willson/AFL Media)

Sydney, by contrast, have their top-four spot under threat on a couple of fronts. The Tigers, with a quite tasty looking draw, are in the box seat, but the list of challengers includes the Dogs and North Melbourne.

This one is Sydney’s leverage game, though, because they will start clear favourites against their remaining four opponents despite their current form woes. Win this one, and it’ll be very hard for a challenger to dislodge them.

Number Four: Round 19, Adelaide v Richmond, Adelaide Oval, Friday night
In the same way that every game for the Cats is important, Adelaide’s remaining five are critical.

The Cats and Crows are equal on 9.5 wins, have an almost identical percentage, and each play a top four, a top eight, and two bottom ten sides in four of their final five.

Richmond have risen like Lazarus since their very pedestrian start to the year, and are in the hunt for a double chance. But to get it, they need to make up a game and a little bit of percentage on the Swans, and as above Sydney’s last game that looks a little wonky is this week. The Tigers will have to go 5-0, and that means getting it done against the Crows.

I’ll have more to say in my Friday Night Forecast on Friday, but it is worth pointing out now that Adelaide project as one of the league’s best sides when they play in familiar territory.

Number Three: Round 20, Fremantle v West Coast, Domain Stadium, Sunday twilight
The early season Western Derby was a terrible game.

Fremantle obliterated West Coast in the first half, and effectively tried to play ‘keepy offy’ for the entirety of the second stanza.

It worked in the third quarter, but the Eagles managed to put on six goals in the last to make the margin respectable. If the two had played the first half of the game twice, the final margin would have been 132 points – slightly better than Hawthorn’s mauling of the Blues from last week.

It’s fair to say this one is not likely to reach the same level.

The ladder permutations got a little more interesting over the course of Round 18. Who would have thought the Hawks and Eagles would earn two Premiership points between them this time last week? While Hawthorn’s loss and West Coast’s draw haven’t done a lot to split those two sides, it’s worked out really freaking well for the Dockers, who, barring a Ross Lyon Special against his old side this weekend, are guaranteed a top two finish.

Who can stop the Fremantle Dockers facing up against the West Coast Eagles in the 2015 AFL grand final? (Photo: Daniel Carson/AFL Media)

It’s not quite set in stone, but a win over West Coast next weekend will make it so. A West Coast victory would add an interesting wrinkle, particularly given that West Coast…

Number Two: Round 19, West Coast v Hawthorn, Domain Stadium, Saturday night
…play another top two aspirant this weekend!

It’s a shame the AFL doesn’t institute a floating fixture around this time of year, because two of the most important games of the season occur this Saturday night. That means…

It’s time to play commentary team lotto!

I’ve managed to avoid BT and LD practically all year, and the schedulers lob them on me on what shapes as the match of the year. Why AFL? Why?

Anyway, this game is very important in the context of who plays who, when and where during the finals. West Coast have a game-and-a-half on the Hawks right now, which takes Hawthorn’s crazy percentage out of play for ladder positions.

A West Coast win would make it very difficult for Hawthorn to rise any higher than their current third position (West Coast would have to drop three games and the Hawks win all four remaining after this one), while a Hawthorn victory would put a second place finish well within their grasp.

As I say, this is very important in the context of who plays who, where and when. Fremantle are all but guaranteed a top two spot now, and I’d feel comfortable going out on a limb and saying they’re 90 per cent of the way to the minor premiership. Let’s assume that’s the case.

Should the Eagles finish second, they would play the Hawks in a qualifying final, and avoid playing the Dockers until either preliminary final week (in the case of a loss) or the grand final (in the case of a win). Should the Hawks finish second, they would play the Eagles in the first week and then face the Dockers either in a preliminary final (loss) or grand final (win).

Who does this bode well for?

The Dockers. Assuming they get over the Swans in their qualifying final, which I’d give an 8/10 chance of happening right now. There’s a line of thinking that says they would be better to “get the Hawks out of the way early”.

Bah. They will still have to beat them on grand final day – why dance with football death twice?

On this game itself, I’m absolutely fascinated to see how Adam Simpson’s Hawthorn-on-steroids game plan shapes up against the Hawks themselves.

Neither side plays a standard tagging-type role player through the middle of the ground, so we could end up with an old-school shootout of epic proportions. There is rain forecast, but for the morning, so conditions should be perfect for an open, precision, gut running game. I can’t wait.

Number one: Round 23, Geelong v Adelaide, Kardinia Park, TBC
It’s an elimination final before an elimination final in Round 23. Both the Cats and Crows look likely to have 11.5 wins on the board, meaning this becomes a battle for the eighth seed, all things being equal.

The Round 23 fixture will be announced at the conclusion of this round of football. This one has to be a Saturday night match up, doesn’t it? Given the top four will get the earliest possible time slots.*

Do I have to add much to this one? I don’t think so. The only way it could have a bigger build up would be if it were played at the Adelaide Oval. We’ll talk some more about it as it gets closer.

So what do you think? Are these the league’s five most important games? Is it a race of nine? And do bottom-half-of-the-eight permutations matter when we have three sides that are so far above the rest of the competition?

*just on this briefly, the current, and likely, top four games in Round 23 look like this:

Port Adelaide v Fremantle
West Coast v St Kilda
Hawthorn v Carlton
Sydney v Gold Coast

Yuck. Who gets the Friday Night slot? I’d put a vote in for the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game personally. It simply can’t be Hawthorn v Carlton, nor Sydney v Gold Coast. The West is not a preferred destination for Friday Night footy while we’re still slumming it at Subiaco.

**Addendum: The AFL has announced it will Richmond and North Melbourne playing the first game of Round 23.