In Gill We Trust: AFL rights deal will change the game

In Gill We Trust. Patrick Dangerfield’s tweet, following news that the AFL had struck a record $2.508 billion broadcast deal for the next six years, was an understated and apt appraisal.

The deal gives the league the muscle to consolidate its investment over the past decade. In case you missed it, you can read about the details here.

Now, it would be remiss of me to start this piece any other way: footy just got paid.

The $2.508 billion deal works out to be about $417 million per year over the life of the agreement, although that include the value of in-kind support provided by the TV networks that would otherwise have to be met by the league.

The AFL’s current broadcast deal is worth $250 million per year. That’s an overnight 67 per cent increase on what is the biggest line item on the league’s books.

Yeah, footy just got paid.

This deal has the capacity to revolutionise the game, both on and off the field. But, like all financial windfalls, it’s a matter of ensuring it is put to the best possible use.

Before we get into that, and a look at some of the possibilities from here, a brief word on how the games are divided up – which is an important detail.

The standard weekly fixture remains as it is now, although there is no word on specific start times. A regular AFL week looks like (based on an EST assessment):

One Friday night game

Two Saturday afternoon games

One Saturday twilight game

Two Saturday night games

Two Sunday afternoon games

One Sunday twilight game

Channel Seven will broadcast Friday night, one Saturday night, and one Sunday afternoon game. The free-to-air broadcaster will screen all finals live around the country, and retain its exclusive right to the grand final.

Foxtel, and, gloriously, Fox Footy was specifically referenced here, will cover the remainder.

Critically, Foxtel, through News Corporation, have secured the right to on-sell their Saturday afternoon game to “another free-to-air broadcaster” should it wish. There’s a lot of by-play in this, which I won’t cover here, but Google “Foxtel Channel Ten” if you’re into that sort of thing.

But, there will be many ‘non-standard’ weeks, which include games on public holidays, games the day immediately prior to public holidays (that aren’t a Friday, Saturday or Sunday) and between five and six additional Thursday night games as the schedule dictates. Channel Seven gets those. The AFL projects there will be 11 or 12 of these fixture weeks per season.

What it effectively means is the amount of football on free-to-air television in 2017 and beyond will potentially fall by 10-11 games, but given News Corporation‘s wholesale rights it could actually increase on what is currently on offer.

Foxtel will broadcast every game, as will Telstra through its digital channels – which includes TelstraTV (again, stick that into Google for more information). Every game will be broadcast in high definition from the 2017 season onwards, although Channel Seven representatives suggested this may become a reality before the start of the 2016 season subject to technology.

This makes me happy. The quality of coverage provided by Foxtel, through Fox Sports generally but Fox Footy specifically, is superb, and it goes beyond the magazine shows. Fox‘s stable of callers are better prepared, better at describing the action, better at not being Brian Taylor; they’re just better all around.

What happens to Channel Seven‘s team will be interesting, given the impending departure of the best in the business, Dennis Commetti, and the slated decline in the amount of content available for them to cover. The line-up of ex-players Seven utilise are all very intelligent, capable callers, but seem to get sucked into the need to be goofy on free-to-air TV. Matthew Richardson and Cameron Ling, in particular, have a much better presence on the wireless.

Speaking of which, this deal does not include the radio broadcast rights, which are presumably akin to a rounding error when compared to the TV rights. As a West Australian, I find myself tuning more and more into Fairfax Radio‘s coverage of the game than I do the ABC thanks to the internet.

Given the recent history of sports content and the national broadcaster, do the AFL bite the bullet and move to a fully commercial radio partner? And what does that mean for footy’s pre-eminent mind, Gerard Whately, who has made the Bill Simmons jump from print to live broadcast media? More to come here, me thinks.

Anyway that’s for another time. In watching the press conference, three things became very clear to me.

AFL chairman Mike Fitzpatrick was seated right in between SevenWest Media chairman Kerry Stokes and News Corporation‘s executive chairman Rupert Murdoch. The symbolism was not very subtle.

Rupert Murdoch was decidedly cheesed off at the NRL, and used every possible opportunity to let the press pack know. That is a not insignificant reason why News Corp paid what it did.

More than ever, broadcast rights are a net cost to the broadcasters. Everyone, including Telstra, talked in terms of this being an investment, rather than as an earner. That is the mindset that has made them fork out more money than anyone thought possible.

It was a momentous announcement, but like yesterday’s other momentous announcement, this is really only the beginning for the AFL and all of its stakeholders. It’s the scene setter. The table cloth. The interesting part is what happens next.

The most obvious question is what does this mean for the players? That’s where new(ish) AFLPA CEO Paul Marsh and his crew come in. The AFL’s collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with its players is due to expire at the end of the next footy year (November 2016), and a new one will need to be negotiated. The current CBA stipulates a fixed dollar salary cap (of $10.86 million in 2016); Marsh has been making overtures about securing a fixed slice of league revenue for his players.

That’s how it’s done in many other sports, including in Marsh’s alma mater, Australian cricket. The question was asked if the executive at yesterday’s press conference, and a straight bat, was played.

Regardless of the method, it is very clearly going to be a good time to be an AFL player. Particularly if you are coming on to the market at the end of next season, and even more particularly if you are a free agent. The salary cap is going to rise, and rise substantially, kicking off what could be a frenzied few years of player movement.

But it’s already started, hasn’t it? Patrick Dangerfield’s lurking suitors all have the capacity to pay him lots of money once the new cap kicks in. Somewhere, probably on Sydney’s North Shore, Andrew Collis is smoking a well-earned cigar. You thought player movement was already becoming a little too loose for your liking? Well, I have bad news for you.

The other big unknown is what this means for the AFL’s equalisation policies, which will be reviewed following the 2016 season.

The so-called ‘luxury tax’ on non-player football department spending will remain, because that’s not about lifting the boats; it’s about stopping clubs with a structural advantage from beasting the smaller ones when it comes to facilities, sports science and the like. But this is quite possibly a game changer for the revenue tax imposed on medium and large clubs, and will likely lead to a shake up of central funding allocations.

All things being equal, club revenue will not grow as fast as the central revenue pot over this six-year period, even for clubs like Collingwood and West Coast. This is likely to mean clubs are given greater free rein with their own revenues, with the AFL’s funding of clubs to be allocated on a more disequal basis. Whether it becomes a prescriptive, formulaic approach, or subject to AFL discretion, will play out between now and the end of next year.

That leads to one of the other big question marks: will the AFL use its newfound pool of money to purchase Etihad Stadium a decade ahead of time? Recent talk has been that the asking price has been too high, driven by global economic and financial factors well beyond the realm of domestic football. As recently as 18 months ago, it was reported that the ownership consortium sought close to $300 million from the AFL.

This is a significant issue for the stadium’s tenants, who struggle to earn a decent return on home games, particularly those played against low-drawing, interstate opposition. These are the clubs that are hamstrung, and in need of equalisation funding.

Can the league kill two birds with one stone: buy out Etihad Stadium and instead of throwing good money after bad in propping up the operational finances of small Melbourne clubs help put them on a more sustainable footing? It’s another in a set of interesting what ifs.

For what its worth, I think the AFL should be looking at developing a small, boutique venue in Melbourne or its immediate surrounds to cater for low drawing games. Surely it would cost not much more than the consortium is chasing for the early termination of its ownership, and just think of the possibilities from a fan perspective.

This is what a big pay rise can do: help make aspirations come to life. And this, sports fans, is the set of most intriguing prospects.

I have no doubt that the AFL’s aspiration for the development of a full-fledged, albeit smaller scale, professional woman’s league was bought forward three years once they saw the cheque that was about to land on their desk.

Ditto Bill Kelty’s review of the national pathway program, which is a Trojan horse (a good Trojan horse) for the development of a national Under-18s, 19s, or 20s competition. While the review would have no doubt taken place anyway, the timing of its commencement, a little bit after McLachlan’s rise to the CEO-ship, and a little bit before the rights negotiations kicked off, speaks volumes.

Off-field reform, like the trading of future draft picks and the related new bidding system for father-son and academy draft picks, will surely necessitate a lifting of professional standards right across the AFL. The best way to fund that? Bingo.

Fan-first initiatives, like ticket price freezes, fiddling with food prices, and pre-match entertainment. All of these things can be, and will be, taken from marketing team whiteboards to stadiums around the country.

But it’s the prospect of a new era of grassroots investment that is perhaps the most exciting of all of these aspirations. The battle for hearts and minds, and youth participation, is stronger than ever before. And there’s only so many high performance coaches that can be employed across club land, if you catch my drift.

Of all of the changes that have big fat question marks, this one I’m sure of: a very big slice of the AFL’s new broadcast deal will be earmarked for Auskick programs, amateur football, junior football, regional football, and clubs right across the country.

Footy is about to be cashed up in a manner never seen before. We took Gil at his word 18 months ago when he said it was his mandate to consolidate the growth of the game he had been a part of in the previous decade. Now he has the war chest to make good on those words.

In Gill We Trust.