While it has been amusing reading the click-bait headlines bagging the Wallabies’ performance against the All Blacks, anyone who bothered to read the team sheets prior to the game knew the result beforehand.
Losing to the All Blacks’ first-choice side in New Zealand with what, for all intents and purposes, was a trial team should not be cause for concern for Michael Cheika.
So where do the teams stand after this weekend?
Australia
Forwards have come to the party
The Wallabies can scrum! This fact alone should almost guarantee a semi-final appearance (bearing in mind that that Wallabies made it to the penultimate round last World Cup without as solid a set-piece).
If Cheika can maintain this upward trend in forward play, Australia’s claim on ‘Bill’ looks a lot less tenuous.
‘Double fetcher starting’ should be penned to the team roster
Why follow conventional wisdom when you have players of Michael Hooper and David Pocock quality? When these two players started in tandem, the Wallabies won. Start them for all the big matches!
Cheika needs to consider dropping back another forward to help defend in the deep like a traditional 8 would do (since Pocock will be playing to the ball).
The flyhalf order has been solidified
Despite comments from Quade Cooper and Cheika’s support of his player, the pecking order for the 10 jersey has surely been settled: first Matt Toomua, second Matt Giteau, third Bernard Foley. Giteau should start at 12 and move to 10 if there’s an injury to Toomua.
Kurtley Beale impressed me with his hard-shouldered approach to defence this weekend past. Seems the competition for spots has focussed him up somewhat. My only concern is Giteau and and Beale play a similar style of playmaker i.e. use of lateral movement to create space for outside players. With this type of play, the team requires a player to straighten the line, which is why I feel Toomua is a vital cog in the Wallabies’ best backline.
Giteau and Beale at 10 and 12 could be disastrous. Perhaps move Adam Ashley-Cooper into 12 and have Beale roam as a playmaker wing in the mould of David Campese? Not entirely sold on this idea though.
Kuridrani still MIA
I can’t remember the commentators mentioning Tevita Kuridrani in attack in either game against the All Blacks. Such a hard-running player with the ability to buckle defensive lines must be drawn into the attack more regularly.
Similarly, Israel Folau’s ability to beat defenders was under-utilised.
Blame must be shared between the players themselves not running the correct lines or getting into space to receive the ball, and the inside players not finding ways of involving these runners more.
All in all, the Wallabies are in a good space at the moment. I’m anticipating a deep run at the tournament this year.
New Zealand
First choice is the same as it’s been for the last few years
I’m not the hugest fan of Ma’a Nonu, but what he brings to the table is exactly what a backline featuring the Smiths and Dan Carter require: hard, straight running when space closes quickly and a jinking long-passing distributor when the space is there for the taking.
I imagine that this year there was no serious argument on who the best 12 for the ABs is. The only debate is who will fill the no. 14 jumper. And wings have never been a problem for the ABs. Who ever they choose will do the job.
Carter is proof that form is temporary, class is permanent
After last week’s performance there was some talk of Carter not being up to scratch. I expect that rugby fans who have been here for longer than a season or two never gave such nonsense credence.
In a clutch game, you want Carter at 10 directing proceedings. One of the hallmarks of Carter’s play is his ability to shift gears seamlessly. Take for example last week: Carter shovelled the ball on all game, except when he engineered a half break that led to a Nehe Milner-Skudder try.
He’s a master of knowing what to do and when to do it for maximum effect. If fit, Carter’s the man.
The only tactic I can think of that the All Blacks are vulnerable to is a high intensity, physical onslaught from kick-off to final buzzer. Any time the Wallabies/Boks/English have beaten the All Blacks it’s through blitzing them early on and having an ‘in your face’, suffocating defence.
Trying to rattle the All Blacks and breaking their composure is the only way to beat them – and even then, it has a 50/50 chance of success.
South Africa
The Boks are their own worst enemies
The Springboks have the cattle to be world-beaters, but are lacking mentally.
Losing two games in the final 10 minutes and getting blitzed by the Pumas at home indicates a tendency towards fatal lapses in concentration, along with a lack of mental fortitude to steel themselves to a game chase.
Jean de Villiers’ comments after the loss to the Pumas were telling in this regard where he mentioned that the team would have to work on the mental aspects of the game.
Trouble is, a champion mentality is not developed overnight, it’s cultivated over years. This World Cup may be too soon for the Boks.
Handre Pollard is a bench player for this campaign
Currently, Pat Lambie gets more from the players outside. In fact, Pollard should never have been rushed into starting for the Boks on the back of a successful under 20 World Cup and a season or two at the Bulls.
Consider how the All Blacks mentor their up-and-coming stars. Two seasons to prove themselves at franchise level, then understudy to the incumbent for a season or so, getting 20 minutes off the bench. Then the starting berth.
Getting dropped into first choice has ruined more than one Bok player (Derick Hougaard and Gaffie du Toit spring to mind). Pollard should be slowly gaining experience and developing his game instead of worrying about how he’s going to carry the team to a win.
Lambie has 49 caps to his name and (limited) experience at a previous World Cup – it’s a no-brainer he should start at 10.
Kirchner vs Willie
I personally would pick the plodding Zane Kirchner over Willie le Roux for the World Cup. Yes, Willie is a much more exciting, creative option but his conversion rate is too low for knockout rugby. Kirchner handles the core duties of a fullback solidly. Catch the high balls, clear his lines, run at defenders. I’ve seen him beat only two players with a step in his entire career, but he brings stability in a vital position.
Willie could be included on the bench to cover wing and fullback if so required. Heyneke Meyer should not stifle Willie’s creativity, but work on improving his option-taking and increasing his success ratio.
Argentina
Juan-martin Hernandez must start at 10
Compared to Nicolás Sanchez, Hernandez seems to have more time at his disposal when distributing. He’s more experienced and I rate his skill-set more highly.
I’ve seen suggestions from Argentine Roarers for a Sanchez-Hernandez 10-12 pairing. If this is to work, Hernandez must rotate into 10 every few phases to make the big plays Argentina need to punish opponents.
More of the same
Last weekend’s game against the Boks in Buenos Aires turned on a single moment early on. If Eben Etzebeth had not put in a try-saving tackle, the Pumas would have stunned the Boks to record a historic second win on the trot against their more fancied opponents.
If they can maintain the passion, skill and the verve with which they play the game, the Pumas are set for another deep run in a RWC and I look forward to them breaking northern hemisphere hearts.
The Southern Hemisphere have a pack of strong contenders (I include Samoa and Fiji here) this World Cup. I cannot wait for it to get started!
Sluggy
Roar Guru
Nice to see the Irish in a confident mood. #number2in the world.
Muzzo
Guest
@ ohtani's jacket Considering that you are looking at past history, I really think that is not the case, for this squad, that is about to be selected. Shag, will be looking to the future, & not what the past had, in regards to the RWC. This team will be primed, & I'm so looking forward to this competition. Bring it on.
Muzzo
Guest
@ Suzy Poison To be honest, any true Kiwi, would have to be a fool, to not not acknowledge the Bokkies, as not being a threat. Going back on the history, of games between SA V NZ, it has always been looked upon as the "ultimate challenge". For proof, we only have to look at the for & against, between these two countries, since their first encounters. I would not write off any South African team, in rugby.
Old Bugger
Guest
Yeah mate - kinda like re-setting the top 2" to keep thinking, while they're enjoying this break period or playing ITM or back into training sessions - probably, just making sure none of them go walkabout, upstairs.
Muzzo
Guest
@ OB If anything, mate, they do now know they can be beaten, & I'm pretty sure Shag will be reminding them of that. I'm sure he will have all squad members, "on the ball", so to say. So looking forward to the announcement of the 31. Possibly, & if he's moving freely, as has been reported, we just might see Naholo, included.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
History is against the All Blacks in every single way, but my biggest concern is that we haven't played that well in the North under Hansen. Then again, we were undefeated in Europe under Henry when we were trundled out in 2007 so maybe winning ugly under Hansen is better prep. If we don't win then I hope Ireland takes it out.
Suzy Poison
Guest
Yeah as a Bok supporter, we begrudgingly admit the Wallaby is on the rise. Maybe it's you (r) coaches hey? The grumpy guy with his beer gut hanging out of his Wallaby trackies, Cheika must know what he is doing? Then again, maybe he doesn't know what he's doing, maybe it's that weedy Bernie character that's got the brains? They are seriously the Laurel and Hardy of Oz rugby.
Suzy Poison
Guest
No Brain, actually I think both games were good learning lessons and crucial for both teams. Firstly you are underestimating the significance of both games. The win in Durban was a massive result for Pumas. Don’t try to pretend it was not? The Pumas are on the rise, the results show this. First they achieved a historic first win of Championships last season. Now they have knocked off the second ranked team (at the time) in an away game. I believe it was only a matter of time, for this happened. I was surprised yes, that the Boks lost at home. But the past results show, the games have been getting closer and closer. The Result in Durban was a massive boost of confidence for the Pumas. I think the Pumas will come second in Pool C, behind New Zealand. Then the will face the winner of Pool D, which will probably be either Ireland or France. I don’t think the Northern Hemisphere teams really know how much this Argentina team will push them yet. Playing with the big three has been good for Argentinian rugby. Then the return game, in the context of the upcoming World Cup, this was must win game for Boks. If the Boks had lost this, this would have been a disaster. This win was crucial for the Boks, it stopped the confidence draining rot of 4 losses on the trot for the Boks. The Boks have previously only managed a draw, and a last minute win against The Pumas in Argentina. So no Bok supporters were confident of a win, in fact many predicted a loss. Whilst you maybe know that Argentina can field a much stronger side, I don’t think Argentina went into the game, trying to throw the result. Sure Argentina can field a stronger team, and sure so can South Africa, but for me, the important thing was, South Africa had to adapt their game plan to achieve, this win. Just like the team of 2006 who got flogged in Brsbane 49-0, the team of 2007 adapted and improved. The current Bok team learnt the lesson and adapted accordingly. This is something our friend Canadian Kiwi said the Boks can’t do. That’s the point I was making.
Nobrain
Guest
Suzy, I am making no excuses, I never said that Sa cannot win RWC. I am just saying that I would not base an opinion on what I saw in the game in Buenos Aires like I do not base my opinion of the Pumas posibilities on RWC on the game on Durban.
Machooka
Roar Guru
Wow... I'm just happy to see that the Wallaby is here amongst all this chatter. Things are on the up !
Suzy Poison
Guest
No Brain, then you Canadian Kiwi agree. The Boks have no chance in the World Cup. That's ok a lot of people think that. You know, we Bok fans made a lot of excuses for our home loss against Argentina. The Ref was poor but the Boks were very poor too. I think, my friend, you are also making excuses for your home loss too. We obviously watched a different game then.
Nobrain
Guest
Sorry Suzy, I went to the game and I watched later on. This was a weak Pumas team and those players that make the 1 team were very tired, do not forget that the Pumas had to travel to SA and back while Sa stayedi. SA for a long time before flying to Argentina. The game was very slow and Pumas had no line and most of scrums ended in penalties for both teams . I do not think that palying like they did against Argies can come victorious to any of the top 7 in IRB ranking. They did not do better than in Durban, they just had a weaker team infront. I know that there were some abcenties in SA and bringing those guys back in form will improve their performance.
nickoldschool
Guest
Wow that's a big call ck! In a way I like it cause you're underrating more erratic teams who don't always live up to their potential but I also don't agree with It. First, one can win a rwc without winning all 7 games, it's mathematically possible and the French among others almost proved it in 2011. 2nd, again the bleus were a dg away from undeservedly winning the rwc after playing a very average pool round, 1 good first half against England in the qf, a poor semi against a 14-man welsh team. So in essence they only turn up in the final and nearly won it. So if the French can be that close from winning it don't you think teams like the Boks are a bit closer to the actual trophy before even playing their first game? They have many flaws but I would never discard them before a rwc, too many imponderable factors in a rwc. Of course they are a chance!
nickoldschool
Guest
Great comment superba, saw the same. There is hope!
Suzy Poison
Guest
Well Canadian Kiwi, you opinion is noted, and quite frankly, I am happy that folks are dismissing the Boks chances. Unfortunately the bookies haven’t though. South Africa are ranked third favourites. Ahead of Australia and ahead of Ireland. I would prefer it, if more folks said the Boks have no chance this World Cup. A lot of the negative comments about the Boks are from a very bad loss to Argentina at home. The Boks were pathetic and outmuscled on the day. One of the worst Bok performances ever. (Almost as bad as the 49-0 whipping in Brisbane in 2006) There are no real excuse for that performance. The Boks were well beaten on the day. They were smashed in the forwards. True a lot of big backrow have been injured. Frans Louw, Vermeulen, Alberts didn’t play. Mostly they lost, because they were trying unsuccessfully a new game plan. They only kicked the ball 7 times and disrespected the opposition, by trying to run from everywhere. It is also good that you think the Boks can’t adapt. You know, a lot folks also wrote off the 2007 Boks chances, after their 2006 Brisbane 49-0 flogging. The said the 2007 Boks would fail to learn any lessons and couldn’t adapt. It is also good, that not many folks watched the next game between the current Boks and Argentina. Perhaps if anyone had actually watched the game, they would not be writing off the Boks chances so flippantly. But shhshh, let’s just keep that on the low down. The score-line and match report doesn’t tell the whole story, and that is good thing. I did watch the game. And just quietly, I did like what I saw from the Boks. The lessons were learned. They mixed up and kicking and running game. Most importantly, there was an element of something that has been lacking for all the truncated Rugby Championships. That is big backrowers bending the line. This time is was the Argentinians who struggled with the Bok forwards physically. Williem Alberts and Pieter Steph Du Toit in particular. Now I know this is crazy talk, but some folks even suggested, that the Boks had adapted their game. Anyway watch out for Pieter Steph Du Toit in this World Cup. He didn’t feature in any other games, but some people, like Mark Andrews are saying he lifts the Boks chances by 10% when he is playing. But then again, what would I know, I agree with you Canadian Kiwi, the Boks are no chance in this year World Cup.
Old Bugger
Guest
ck You have my admiration because, you are quite serious and insistent, with your predictions - fool-proof or fool-hardy is irrelevant, in your perception. You have provided reasoning to substantiate your position and of course, it is your opinion. But, allow me to impart this suggestion - irrespective of past behaviour, it takes a brave person of knowledgeable foresight, to disregard the Springboks, going into this RWC tournament. From reading your comments, I take it you are, such a person and to that end, I can certainly wish you the best of luck, with your forecasts.
canadiankiwi
Guest
South Africa will win their pool and then be eliminated in the QF by England or Australia, or by the All Blacks in semis. Their fatal flaw is their inability to adapt. The other elite rugby nations have professional strength and conditioning coaches. The Springbok can no longer simply bully other teams any more by putting out a taller and heavier pack. They could not even beat Argentina in SOUTH AFRICA when the Pumas stood up to them physically.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
WOW .. Huge call CK ... ignoring the Springboks credentials in Rugby World Cups is not wise ... they WILL be there or thereabouts.
taylorman
Roar Guru
We'll see Canada, for me they both have as many reasons to win or lose. No theory seems to fit at the moment so it's going to be another round of we'll see...
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yeah it does biltong, it just hasn't won many finals. If you go through the bulk of the non final knock outs there's a lot of big wins from the major sides. My theory is finals become levellers after the sheer strain on the finals sides having to get up, an win, one more time. Teams are simply not at their best when they get to a final. Lots of evidence supports that from same sides playing each other in pool.