2015 Warwick Stakes preview

We’re on the eve of spring, with Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide starting to host black-type racing on a weekly basis. The major race this week is the Warwick Stakes at Randwick.

Some quality names are lining up in the field, and it would shape as a fascinating 2000m race if run a month or two down the track. As it is, over three quarters of the field are first-up in this 1400m affair.

First Seal is the heavy market-elect, opening at what seemed on the low side of fair odds at $3.80, and then smashed in from that quote.

This is a horse that, despite her undoubted talent, has won only one of her last six starts, jumping at an average price of $2.40. Bookies around the country have her poster on the wall.

She couldn’t win first-up last campaign at level weights against her fellow fillies, and now graduates to open weight for age company for the first time as a four-year-old mare. 1400m-1600m appears to be her pet distance range, so she must be conceded a winning chance, but is certainly short enough in the market.

Kermadec is the other four-year-old in the market, with strong Group 1 credentials from the autumn, placed in the George Ryder before winning the Doncaster, taking full advantage of how well talented three-year-olds are weighted in those events.

He’s had two trials plus a strong exhibition gallop to tune him up for this first-up assignment, with trainer Chris Waller keen to strike with him early in his preparation. He has the class and the speed to win, and shouldn’t be wanting for fitness.

Waller has five others engaged in the race too; the four most despised in the betting being veterans Beaten Up, Hawkspur, Foreteller and Moriarty, along with the ever-consistent mare Royal Descent.

Royal Descent isn’t usually at her best first-up these days, despite running second in this race last year under those circumstances, which led to her best campaign as a mare. She might be in the mix to run a drum.

John O’Shea has a couple of entrants for Godolphin, the first being the ex-European It’s Somewhat, which made a winning Australian debut in the Liverpool City Cup in February, before running respectably in the George Ryder second-up.

He can only have benefited from a taste of racing in this country, and should have improved further off it. He’s a genuine threat in this race, and the main danger to Kermadec, based on the turn of foot he showed first-up last time.

Complacent is having his first run in almost two years after an injury lay-off, but did beat Criterion in the Spring Champion when last in work. While he won’t be a player in this, hopefully he can be at some stage in the spring.

Pornichet has become something of a boom horse for Gai Waterhouse, and begins his preparation as the equal Cox Plate favourite with some agencies, in what is a staggering turn of events for a Toowoomba Cup winner.

I’ll need to see more than what I have to date to justify those claims, beating B- and C-graders in Brisbane. He ran a nice fifth in the Doncaster, yes, but had the cosiest run of any horse in the race, and couldn’t win with every possible favour and carrying a feather-weight.

He’ll likely be forward enough to win if he’s good enough, but is yet to place in two first-up runs in this country.

The three horses not first-up are coming from the Missile Stakes a fortnight ago, the winner Burbero along with Zaratone and Messene, who were fourth and fifth respectively, a length and a half away.

While those three may have a race-fitness edge on their rivals, none of them look to have the class to finish in front of all others here. Burbero has become such a consistent sprinter-miler, and looks to be the pick of those.

Gust of Wind is the remaining runner, the ATC Oaks winner resuming. She went from a Scone maiden to a Group 1 winner in four starts in the autumn, and has the Melbourne Cup as her goal, but don’t be surprised to see her jumping out of the ground late to make an impression.

Zaratone should take up the speed, with Messene prominent, and Pornichet possibly slotting in behind them. First Seal, Kermadec and It’s Somewhat could well end up jockeying for box seat and midfield positions. The latter two look the standouts in terms of value, and may well be the only two that can win it.

Selections
1. Kermadec 2. It’s Somewhat 3. Burbero 4. Gust of Wind

Elsewhere on the card, the fillies turn out in the Silver Shadow Stakes, the other main race of interest.

Blue Diamond and Golden Slipper place-getter Lake Geneva looks the testing material, and could now go on with it after breaking her maiden first-up.

Kimberley Star looks the only danger, but she’s a genuine one, having strung together three comfortable wins on the trot through the winter months.

There’s not a whole lot happening at Moonee Valley, but most racing fans will cast their eye over to Adelaide for the Penny Edition, where the promising Alpine Eagle resumes on a Cox Plate campaign after his second in the Australian Guineas.

The form out of that Guineas stood up through Kermadec and Wandjina, so there’s every reason to think Alpine Eagle can make an impression once he goes to Melbourne.