Injuries to key players have dramatically reshaped the NRL premiership race three weeks out from the start of the finals series, with Sydney Roosters and North Queensland hit hardest.
Premiership favourites the Roosters have lost prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves for the season due to an ACL injury suffered in Saturday night’s win over Brisbane.
The foundation club’s halfback Mitchell Pearce won’t be back until the finals after suffering a partial hamstring tear in the same game.
North Queensland have similar problems in their search for their first NRL title.
Prop James Tamou might not play again in 2015 due to a neck injury suffered in Saturday’s win over the Warriors in Auckland.
The year could also be over for Cowboys playmaker Michael Morgan who hurt his ankle at Mt Smart Stadium.
Four-time Parramatta premiership winner Peter Sterling believes the Cowboys’ premiership chances will be no more if the Queensland State of Origin utility can’t get back on the field this season.
“In my opinion North Queensland cannot win the competition without Michael Morgan,” Sterling said on Channel Nine’s Sunday Footy Show.
“The season that Johnathan Thurston has had in so many ways is attributed to that man there. What he does on the right hand side with his speed to get outside of players takes so much pressure off the left hand side of Thurston and (Gavin) Cooper.”
South Sydney captain Greg Inglis is in doubt for the premiers’ crucial clash with the Broncos on Thursday.
The superstar fullback went down with a knee injury in Souths’ loss to Canterbury on Friday night.
However the Rabbitohs will welcome back Issac Luke and Luke Keary from suspension for the round 25 match.
The Warriors won’t qualify for the finals but prop Jacob Lillyman is another big-name player to be injured in round 24.
He won’t play again this season due to a cheekbone problem.
The Queensland representative is booked in for surgery on Wednesday and joins Shaun Johnson (ankle) and Manu Vatuvei (shoulder) on the sidelines for the New Zealand-based side.
Gold Coast’s Greg Bird (quadricep) is another big casualty from the weekend. His forgettable season is over too.
The Roosters, Broncos and Cowboys all sit on 36 points atop the NRL ladder, with the Tricolours ahead on a superior for-and-against record.
Melbourne, who might have lost forward Dale Finucane for the year with a wrist injury, can leapfrog Souths into fourth spot with a win over Newcastle at AAMI Park on Monday night.
Souths host the Broncos in the opening match of round 25 on Thursday. The Roosters travel to Brookvale to meet Manly on Friday.
Sam Moa could make an early return from a wrist injury for the Tricolours while Jackson Hastings will fill Pearce’s No.7 jersey.
Manly hooker Matt Ballin is unlikely to play again this year due to a knee injury.
littleredrooster
Guest
Spose its better than only being in ONE in 43 years...with some help from the NRL. Welcome back Con, where've you been son? Myxomatosis attack? see you round 26 I'll bring you some pullups...youll need em'.
littleredrooster
Guest
You wont get the opportunity be in that position this year The Bazza, so relax. The Dogs will turn to Cats...
3 Hats
Guest
They will CHOKE as usual.
3 Hats
Guest
Oh yeah...good on ya mate... NEWS FLASH Newcastle 20 Melbourne 6 TOP 4 GONE!
paul
Guest
I think this team will run through brick wall for robbo and on a plus side moa will be fresh and raring to go
The Barry
Roar Guru
You've still got to make it there to be in the coin flip. But I guess three consecutive semi final series, two grand finals, a minor premiership and a dally m winner all in the past three years is just a fluke... That's some run of luck.
American Dave
Guest
I think I might ease myself out of the arm chair and politely disagree regarding the Cowboys. Between JT, Granville and Coote I think their spine has enough in it to take them through. This would require a good look in the mirror for most of the team to address the slow starts / 40 minute games.
Joe
Roar Rookie
That's true. Tonight's game against Newcastle is very important for the Storms chances unless they want to rely on For and Against or Manly losing one of their last 2. After tonight its a 5 day turnaround to play the Cowboys on Saturday then another 5 day turnaround plus a trip up to Suncorp to face the Broncos. Hopefully they repeat last Monday nights performance against the Sharks and beat the Knights. The Knights are also currently sitting last and the threat of a wooden spoon will be a big motivating factor as it was for Titans against the Raiders.
Benedict Arnold
Guest
Should be worth noting that melbourne have played more monday night games than any other team in the NRL since they have been a part of the competition. They also have the best monday night record of any NRL team.
Samtwocan
Guest
Yeah man im not writing the chooks off yet ... After that display against the Broncos I have a lot of faith in this team to stand up and play for each other ... If they win their last two against Souths and manly I'm bookin plane and GF tickets coz they'll be there .
paul
Guest
Wt a comp roosters still big chance but pimp daddy a massive loss feel like slashing my wrists near unbeatable with him in team. I like the dogs at this stage to at least make gf ok with injuries and they have that sniff . Melbourne my smoky have great d second behind chooks. Not discounting my mob still a massive chance but every team needs there pimp daddy no1 in the semis. Moa to come back and napps is frightening if he can go up another 20% in the semis we can win
pete bloor
Guest
I think we can lock in the top 8 spot for the Storm already, they have a 118 point F/A advantage over Manly
pete bloor
Guest
Intuitively I’d put the chances at less than 10% most years (so 9 times more likely to come from the top 4) as home field means something and intuitively (without any other info) the teams that win more over the course of the season should be more likely to win than teams that don’t win as much right.
Renegade
Roar Guru
I think whoever ends up sneaking into fourth spot is a very good chance of taking it out. I hope its not Melbourne - they are the ugliest team in the competition.... very good at what they do, but about as entertaining as watching paint dry. Since Billy got injured - Bellamy being the coach he is has come up with a new tact so they can compete and basically just turned the storm into a defence oriented team focussed on wrestling.... and they are starting to perfect that game plan. It's painful to watch but the club is full of profressionals who do their job so they are definitely a very capable contender flying under the radar at the moment.
SpongeBob
Guest
Flip a coin enough times it'll eventually come up heads.
planko
Roar Guru
Sorry to spit out the obvious but Melbourne need to win tonight in Rugby League's Bemuda triangle to secure the top 8 spot. Good football and good teams get lost on Monday night. A unlikely but possible loss tonight could see them marooned on 28 .... They play a couple reasonable QLD teams in last 2 rounds.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It would be very rough Con - I'm sorta dreading the prospect but at the end of the day I'd rather be in the Grand Final and lose than not make it at all.
pete bloor
Guest
Calculated figure. You've got to win 4 straight rounds so 0.5^4 equals 6.25% you've got 4 teams so 25% which means the other 4 guys have 75% or 3 times as likely or you could figure it out that the top four teams each have a 75% chance of getting to the preliminary (50% chance of wining the qualifying or a 25% chance of losing the qualifying AND winning the semi) and from there you've got a 25% chance of winning the GF (.5*.5) which comes out to an 18.75% chance. That again assumes no home field advantage which would improve the top 4 chances
Joe
Roar Rookie
Hopefully they keep flying under the radar. The loss of Slater though cannot be understated, as good as Munster is when it comes to finals football Slater steps up a gear, especially his performances in Grand Finals. We'll see what Munster is made of come finals time although from what I read about him he seems to be a very willing worker which is a great sign as he also has a lot of talent. Storm have also done well I blooding a lot of young forwards in Kaufusi, Welch, Asofa-Solomona who will be very handy once the regulars like Jordan Maclean return. They will need to have some fresh big bodies against the likes of the Dogs, Roosters, Rabbits. Kurt Mann seems to have come back a different player defensively as shown in the past two weeks but the real test will be against the likes of Ferguson, Morris etc. Lastly Dale Finucane is a big loss defensively, what he does on the field doesn't get the spotlight but he covers a lot of distance in defence and hits hard and is a step up from Hinchcliffe who will be filling in. He stops a lot of go forward by opposition packs in the middle so hopefully he can make it back to play a part in the finals. First up though is Knights and as seen by Titans/Eels performance there are no easy beats....especially teams who are looking at the wooden spoon!
Ken
Guest
Interested in your assessment of 3x more likely, without any antagonisation intended, is this a calculated figure or your intuition? I've said elsewhere on these pages I think the current finals draw is riper for a bottom 8 contender than the old system. A team in the bottom 4 used to have to navigate Top 4 sides in Week 1, 2 & 3 (and then play the GF of course). Now they can build their finals campaign with a fellow bottom 8 side, a losing Top 4 side, and then a winning Top 4 side (and then GF). Far from easy of course but a potentially simpler first game and better chance of easing into the finals series.