AFL Finals: Fremantle Dockers vs Sydney Swans preview and prediction

The Fremantle Dockers host the Sydney Swans at Subiaco Oval in Perth on Saturday afternoon, with a home preliminary final the prize for the victor.

If you believe the odds, this match has become the simplest to tip in Week 1 of the finals. Following the loss of 2014 best and fairest winner Luke Parker to an ankle injury, then co-captain Kieran Jack to a knee injury, key defender Nick Smith to a hamstring, and finally key forward Lance Franklin to mental illness, most have been left convinced the Swans are too undermanned to match it with the Dockers.

MORE AFL FINALS:
>> WEEK 1 EXPERT TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
>> EAGLES VS HAWKS PREVIEW
>> DOGS VS CROWS PREVIEW
>> TIGERS VS KANGAROOS PREVIEW

There is no denying that the Swans are diluted. But fortunately for the Swans, a diluted lineup still boasts a fair bit of firepower.

Sure, there’s no Buddy up front, but they’ve actually been playing and performing without him for a large chunk of the run to the finals. Franklin only lined up in five of the Swans last 11 games, so it’s not as dire as if it would be had he carried their scoring in 2015 up to this point. The impact will be felt, but he’s just one player.

The forward line will still contain Kurt Tippet, Sam Reid and Adam Goodes – some pretty handy targets. Throw in Isaac Heeney and Gary Rohan and you’ve got yourself a line-up that most AFL teams would be more than happy to have.

It’s in the midfield where the loss of Parker and Jack may be more noticeable. Thankfully, for swans supporters, they’ll still have clearance machine Josh P Kennedy and Dan Hannebery leading the way, and will welcome back some valuable experience with the return of Jarrad McVeigh.

A key for me will be the performance of Tom Mitchell. He’ll be called upon and will need to step up if the Swans’ mids are going to match it. He’s averaged 27.5 disposals in 2015, but is more than capable of racking up the touches, as he showed in Round 20, when he picked up 41 against Collingwood.

In contrast to the Swans, the Dockers will be at near full strength as they welcome half their side back from a week’s rest and also regain Brownlow Medal favourite, Nathan Fyfe.

After locking up their home qualifying final weeks ago, Ross Lyon’s preparation has been as close to perfect (if you’re a believer in the whole taking a week off before finals scheme that is).

In particular, for the Dockers’ ageing stars such as Matthew Pavlich and Aaron Sandilands, the week off could prove vital.

Then Fyfe is, of course, a huge in, and fans will be hoping he can hit the ground running. Having only played two games since Round 17 shouldn’t be an issue for one of the game’s best, and we can be sure he’ll be reminiscing on his last outing against the Swans where he picked up a handy 27 touches and kicked a goal (and most likely three Brownlow votes).

Here’s a look at that last time these sides met in Round 4, 2015.

The match ended in a 14-point win for the Dockers, but the half-by-half breakdown tells another story. In the first half it was all one-way traffic for Fremantle, kicking nine goals to one up to half time. The Swans changed it around in the second, scoring 7.9 to the Dockers 2.4. However, Sydney could only finish the match with one more scoring shot.

It becomes a funny sort of game to draw confidence from either team, but also one that is difficult to be disheartened by. Both will look back on it determined to recreate the dominance each held for one half, and solve the problems that saw them thumped in the other.

Prior to Round 4, the Swans had held the wood over the Dockers throughout 2014, knocking them off twice in Sydney. Fortunately for Fremantle, we need to go back to 2010 to find record of the last time Sydney were able to get on the long flight home with a win next to their name.

LAST FIVE MEETINGS

Date	Venue	Home vs Away	Result
Round 4, 2015	Domain Stadium	Fremantle defeats Sydney	74-60
Qualifying Final, 2014	ANZ Stadium	Sydney defeats Fremantle	93-69
Round 5, 2014	SCG	Sydney defeats Fremantle	92-75
Preliminary Final, 2013	Domain Stadium	Fremantle defeats Sydney	99-74
Round 8, 2013	SCG	Sydney drew with Fremantle	70-70

Where the Swans are expected to struggle is around the contest. The Dockers lead the comp for hitouts, averaging 58.8 per game compared to the Swans 44.4, and Fyfe (8.7 clearances per game) and David Mundy (7.2 clearances per game) are two of the best at getting their hands on it. This will certainly tilt the match in the Dockers favour, and the pressure will be on the Swans mids to keep up their clearance numbers.

With the season’s leading clearance getter (Kennedy with 176) lining up against the man with the highest average (Fyfe), football looks set to be the only sure winner in this one.

An area that may trouble the Dockers though is their inability to score big totals. Granted, it’s not their game plan, but it is a worthy critique at the business end of the season.

Despite winning 17 games in 2015, only six of those came with a total over 100 points, leaving them 11th on the ladder for points for.

Although the Swans haven’t been as potent up forward as their team-sheet would have you expect, they average a goal and a point more per game than the Dockers, along with over two more scoring shots. If the Swans can snag the momentum at some stages during this game, they are more than capable of kicking a score that could worry the Dockers.

So who’s going to win?

Despite my attempts to pump up the Swans, it is impossible to look past how well prepared Fremantle are for this match. The loss of a number of key players for Sydney won’t equal an automatic blowout, and I expect the scores (and tension) to be high in the final quarter.

Of course, the loser is looking towards next week, which I expect will be the Swans, who’ll head home with some confidence from a strong showing with an undermanned team.

Dockers by 9.