Elimination finals are a funny thing. They’re exciting, tense games of football, more often than not, but in the back of your head you’re always wondering – will this really even effect the finals series that much?
It’s the same this year. Every season people like to pump up the tires of the teams placed fifth through eighth and say this is the year that one of the could win the flag.
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But, in nearly 120 years of league history, it’s only happened twice, so I think we can all agree it really does take an exceptional team to do it.
Do we have any exception teams in this match? Absolutely, and that’s what muddies the waters.
The Western Bulldogs, the home team, are exceptional in just about every sense of the word. I honestly predicted them to win the spoon this year, and here they are in the top six – it’s remarkable.
They’ve gotten there on the back of some renewed form from their older players, and some incredible efforts from their young guns.
The likes of Marcus Bontempelli and Jake Stringer both project as possible top 10 players in the league when they hit their peaks, and it’s scary to think that the Dogs still have Tom Liberatore on the sidelines and Tom Boyd developing in the VFL.
Adelaide, on the other hand, well haven’t they had the most exceptional season in the history of the league, and not in a good way.
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Almost unbelievably, they’ve come out the other side of it in incredible form. Maybe it’s Worsfold, maybe it’s Camporeale, but whatever it is it’s working.
They stumbled last week against Geelong but other than that their form in the lead up to finals has been simply scintillating.
If you want a team who could potentially win the flag from outside the top four this year, I think they are it. For me they tick more boxes than any other side – they’ve got a lot of good forward options, an experienced midfield, a quality ruckman, and a decent amount of finals experience. Their backline is young, but talented.
That said, if I’m being honest, I don’t think either team is really going to pull it off. Whoever wins this match will have to face the loser of West Coast and Hawthorn at home next week and that’s going to be a massive ask for any team.
Whether or not they have an impact on the rest of the finals series though I think these two teams are so exciting that this game is bound to be an enjoyable one.
Both of them play a great brand of football, they’re third and fourth in the competition for points scored this year.
In fact their stats are scarily similar. Adelaide (2107) have scored just six more points than the Bulldogs (2101) in 2015, and the Bulldogs (1825) have conceded just four more points than the Crows (1821).
Of course, Adelaide have played one less game so if you were to look at average performances that would change the numbers a little.
Both teams have a good variety of options up forward. The Bulldogs can hang their hat on Stringer, a likely All Australian, as well as Tory Dickson and Stewart Crameri, while the Crows have a more traditional forward set up including Tex Walker, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts and Charlie Cameron.
Adelaide’s raw numbers through the midfield are a little bit more impressive, but what the numbers don’t show you is the sort of pace and devastation that the Bulldogs use the ball with. The battle there, I think, is close to even.
Both teams have young backlines, though the Crows have Daniel Talia as their centrepiece while the Bulldogs really lack a go-to key defender.
And of course there’s a big difference in the ruck as well. Sam Jacobs is one of the best big men in the competition while the Bulldogs’ ruck department essentially runs on the smell of an oily rag.
The Crows can boast a bit more experience both in terms of regular games and finals, they played three finals in 2012 while this will be the first finals series for the Dogs in five years and their team had changed dramatically since 2010.
The Dogs do have a homeground advantage this week, of sorts. It’s in Victoria but it’s being played at the MCG where, strictly speaking, neither side is a regular, and you can expect Crows fans will flock to the game like mad.
It’s still something of an advantage to the Bulldogs but certainly not on the scale it could be if the game were being played at Etihad Stadium.
Adding up the advantages and disadvantages, the Crows are my tip. They just seem like the team that is better positioned to enjoy a finals win, home ground advantage be damned, and they have no lack of motivation for it.
That said, the Bulldogs have been defying expectation and ruining conventional wisdom all year long. I would not be shocked at all to see them pull another magnificent performance out of their hats.
In the end the only thing I can say with any certainty is that it’s going to be a fascinating contest.
Adelaide by 24 points.
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