Michael Cheika's masterstroke can bring back Bill

By David Lord / Expert

Wallaby coach Michael Cheika never ceases to surprise.

His intention to send totally different starting lineups into the first two Rugby World Cup pool games against Fiji and Uruguay is not only a masterstroke, but has two other important ramifications.

The five most vital cogs in the Wallaby machinery – skipper Stephen Moore, David Pocock, Michael Hooper, Will Genia, and Israel Folau – will minimise injury risks by playing against Fiji in the opener, but miss the Uruguay game to be ready for the telling games with England, Wales, and the play-offs.

And every one of the 31-man Wallaby squad will get at least one game. There would be nothing more devastating than representing the Wallabies at a World Cup from the stand, dressed in the number one street gear.

So how will these two Wallaby squads look?

Against Fiji:
(1) Scott Sio
(2) Stephen Moore (c)
(3) Sekope Kepu
(4) Kane Douglas
(5) Rob Simmons
(6) Scott Fardy
(7) Michael Hooper
(8) David Pocock
(9) Will Genia (vc)
(10) Bernard Foley
(11) Rob Horne
(12) Matt Giteau
(13) Tevita Kuridrani
(14) Adam Ashley-Cooper
(15) Israel Folau

(16) Tatafu Polota-Nau
(17) James Slipper
(18) Greg Holmes
(19) Will Skelton
(20) Dean Mumm
(21) Nick Phipps
(22) Quade Cooper
(23) Kurtley Beale

Against Uruguay:
(1) James Slipper (c)
(2) Tatafu Polota-Nau
(3) Greg Holmes
(4) Will Skelton
(5) Dean Mumm
(6) Ben McCalman
(7) Sean McMahon
(8) Wycliff Palu
(9) Nick Phipps
(10) Quade Cooper
(11) Joe Tomane
(12) Matt Toomua
(13) Henry Speight
(14) Drew Mitchell
(15) Kurtley Beale

(16) Scott Sio
(17) Sekope Kepu
(18) Toby Smith
(19) Dean Mumm
(20) Scott Fardy
(21) Matt Giteau
(22) Bernard Foley
(23) Adam Ashley-Cooper

There are a couple of those selections worth a comment.

I still believe Beale is at his best at inside centre, even though he’s more than capable of playing anywhere in the backline, bar half.

And Beale’s still the best bet to set up the Wallabies’ most dangerous back in Folau who has looked very frustrated lately when he’s been in position to cut loose, but doesn’t get the ball.

I make this prediction.

If the Wallabies do cut Folau loose, which should be a given, he will be man of the tournament, and the Wallabies will win a record third World Cup.

But slotting Beale into inside centre is difficult with Giteau and Toomua on duty. That gives Cheika a right royal headache.

The second comment is Cheika will regret not having hooker James Hanson, lock James Horwill, nor half Nic White in the 31-man squad.

Horwill’s lineout calling will be missed, so too his work-rate.

No Hanson means prop Scott Sio becomes the third hooker if injury strikes, and with no White, Giteau becomes the third half.

Not ideal, but both Sio and Giteau will do a top job out of their own comfort zones if required.

More importantly, Michael Cheika has covered just about every corner of his campaign to bring back Bill.

And he will.

The Crowd Says:

2015-09-13T05:06:04+00:00

Squirrel

Roar Rookie


Agree this is a terrible team on paper . If he gets to semis demigod for sure.

2015-09-13T04:56:40+00:00

Frontrow

Guest


You acuse me of not reading your post properly and yet you are guilty of doing the same thing Also you are one of tnose guys that is obsessed with stats - and anyine who knows anything about sport - not just rugby knows that stats are only part of the story My comments are not one eyed mate as I rightly pointed out journallist from the SMH and Courier mail have run more than one article on Folau not being as effective in attack against the All Blacks as he is against other sides and I gave credit to Folau himself for accepting that that criticism was fair. Mate that is from the guy himself not just me- One Eyed? Gee I don't think so sunshine I take head from someone else who ddi the top 100 players for the Roar which I am sure you read by Sean Turner where he list Folau at 10 but Ben Smith ranked two places higher at 8 and righly so where he says and Iquote: "But if Folau is most devastating offensive fullback in the game, then Smith takes the mantle of defence.His incredible try-saving tackle on Manu Tuilagi in 2014, as well as numerous one on one efforts that demonstrate not only incredible bravery, but refined technique and an absence of panic. Also one of the only players in world rugby who seemingly never has a bad game, Smith really is the complete package, and there is simply no better player to have in the fullback jersey than the 29-year-old Otago man. " So I suggest i am not one eyed nor the only one who think Smith is the best in the world at fullback

2015-09-13T03:48:57+00:00

Warwick Todd

Guest


BL00dy things are always flat anyway.

2015-09-13T03:27:35+00:00

Mike

Guest


Okay, well its an impressive stat regardless. I trust that any of those who think Folau is a liability for the Wallabies will state clearly just who they think we should be using instead.

2015-09-13T02:49:50+00:00

PeterK

Roar Guru


Mike - They were the stats for the round robin, I did not have stats on try assists for finals. I did not look at every player. I did look at the playmakers from Canes, crusaders, highlanders, tahs, brumbies, Chiefs, and B smith and Dagg, Willie Le Roux, Pollard, and Folau.

2015-09-13T02:47:50+00:00

PeterK

Roar Guru


Frontrow - It is far easier for a team with stars all over the place to focus multiple players and specific plans when the opposition has only 2 high quality players. The weaker team can't do that when there are 10 at least in the other team. O'Driscoll is a classic case of a great player who did not damage the AB's much because they could focus on him. Your premise is wrong to start off with. How would Smith go against the AB's if he played for the Wallabies, not nearly as well as he plays for the AB's. Even worse you are totally wrong that Folau has only played well once against the AB's. Only his first test he did little from the wing where he hardly received the ball, that I have left out. Date runs Metres Clean Breaks Defenders Beaten Offloads Tackle Missed Tackles 24/8 6 98 1 3 1 3 0 19/10 18 94 2 7 3 1 2 16/8 11 33 0 5 2 2 0 23/8 10 159 2 4 2 4 0 18/10 19 107 1 3 2 0 1 8/8 12 85 1 5 1 1 0 15/8 11 111 1 7 1 0 1 Overall all his tests against AB's he has a 74% tackle success rate which is pretty good against the top team perhaps the best team ever. Only on 18/10 did he have a relatively quiet game. He averages 98 metres per game. 1.1 Clean breaks. 4.9 Defenders beaten. Except for 18/10 he beats a defender about every second run who else does that against the AB's? Name one other person and show me the stats. 1.7 offloads per game. So instead of your subjective gut feel and one eyed view that he has had only 1 good game get some solid stats behind you instead. Tell me other than AB's are there any other very good players in other countries? Show me their stats against the AB's.

2015-09-13T02:44:21+00:00

Mike

Guest


"But Australian’s more than any other nation are so impressed but razel dazel that they so often just want to turn blind eyes to a players weaknesses" Okay... so your solution is that we drop Folau and select Smith instead, right?

2015-09-13T02:43:02+00:00

Mike

Guest


I am interested in the debate about try assists. Did Folau top them or not? And is that right across Super Rugby for the 2015 season?

2015-09-13T01:52:56+00:00

Frontrow

Guest


PeterK it is always said - not just often - that a player should be judged by how he goes against the best sides - well as has been reported on several articles in the Courier Mail and the SMH in the last three years Folau has not performed all that well against the All Blacks. In fact to date he has had one good game aganst the All Blacks and one ok game. Folau himself and to his great credit I must say, has said he was aware of the criticism about his performance against the All Blacks and did not deny he struggled against them to get into the game This is why I dont rate Folau like you do - if he wants me to put him on the pedistal you do then he needs to be more consistant against the best team in the world - so far he is not And as I have said in my post some of you claiming that his defense is great or good etc need to get a reality check and go back and watch the Eden Park game again - he fell off key tackles and got caught out in his position. Smith is the better player because he reads the game better and his defensive kicking and defense is superior and Smiths 17 test tries and 6 to Folau's 5 in Super rugby prove he every bit as dangerous in attack But Australian's more than any other nation are so impressed but razel dazel that they so often just want to turn blind eyes to a players weaknesses - not just Folau but others as well We will have to agree t disagree but I bet Smith will be the stand out fullback at this WC and remember he is now locked in as the fullback as Dagg is out of form so now we will see Smith at his best so watch this space and I think now he is settled in his preferred position he will shine at this WC

2015-09-12T03:37:52+00:00

PeterK

Roar Guru


Frontrow - Instead of calling it BS who did top the try assists in super rugby? I have Folau with 12 try assists, Sopoaga on 10. B Smith made all of ONE thats right 1 try assist. Not much of a playmaker. I could not find any other high ones. Also you misread my comment above when I wrote Folau takes the highball with multiple chasers on him, there is no space yet he still breaks the tackle or beats a defender, tights as you can get. Smith does not do this. I was not say Smith could not catch a high ball. I was saying when Smith has multiple chasers right on him with no room to move he does not then break the tackel or beat a defender like Folau does most times in that situation. You should try and read the posts in order and you would see I was replying on a statement how Smith attacks better in tight spaces and I was providing a situation that was not true.

2015-09-12T03:06:29+00:00

Frontrow

Guest


John stop pulling stats out of your rear end to justify your argument - Folau did not top assists at all that is BS

2015-09-11T23:00:08+00:00

Mike

Guest


I detect a lack of love for Sydney Uni. Say it ain't so! ;)

2015-09-11T22:50:58+00:00

Mike

Guest


You may think it obvious, but Warren Gatland might have done well to think about it.

2015-09-11T22:49:55+00:00

Mike

Guest


"Folau ... doesn’t know how to kick or put another player into space." Yes, and pigs fly. Thanks for that.

2015-09-11T22:46:24+00:00

Mike

Guest


Does it matter whether he is "the premier fullback in world rugby"? The contenders from other countries can never play for us anyway, so its all speculative. Israel Folau is one of our best players, and one of very few with a clear lock on his Wallaby position. He is a real headache for opposing coaches because he not only defuses bombs but sometimes converts them into instant counter-attacks. That reduces the attacking options of other teams. Its a great weapon to have, and his defence really isn't worse than any other current Australian contender. Debating who in the world is the best 15 just seems a useless exercise, to me.

2015-09-11T22:05:44+00:00

Mike

Guest


"using the highly over-rated higginbotham who i believe was medically allergic to rucks as an example of how we may have not been beaten up the breakdown in that game is not a good argument." I don't think that was RK's argument. He was pointing out that TPN looked exhausted in the pool match against Ireland, Deans had a fresh hooker on the bench yet didn't bring him on at all. He also didn't bring on Higginbum until the last 5 minutes (same for Palu and Mitchell actually). Its a reasonable argument that fresh legs at the 60 minute mark might have made the difference. Robbie Deans was a great coach and often unfairly criticised, but he did have a weakness in how he used his bench, an area in which Cheika seems much stronger. I am not prepared to say categorically that this reliance on 2 hookers is a bad thing. But I do worry about it,and the point made by RK is a fair one - the quality of the bench hooker is important.

2015-09-11T21:44:40+00:00

Mike

Guest


"as he was handled by the lesser #12 from USA on 3-4 occasions last week." That happens with any small player. Dan Carter tends to get flattened when other players line him up. But it doesn't put him off his game and he usually gets the pass or kick away, or goes down and puts the ball back. His value as a player is in spite of his size. Its easy to see a small player getting smashed and think "oh he's ineffective" when the reverse is often the case.

2015-09-11T21:41:11+00:00

Mike

Guest


Actually you could extend that back further. He missed the end of 2011 and much of the 2012 tests as well. And, setting statistics aside and giving an opinion, he seems to me to do best when his forwards are doing well. Like all fly halves....

2015-09-11T19:52:18+00:00

Ted

Roar Rookie


Master stroke ? He has a plan ? revolutionary ? None of these. There has always been a plan - almost an insult to suggest otherwise. All the Roarers ruminating about Chiekas first 15 team ( of course it's fun ) totally miss the real plan . He doesn't have a first 15. Some time back , probably an hour after appointment, he concluded he will never win a majority of tests v top countries and definitely not win RWC with his " best 15 " team which will always come up short ( just) . Chiekas has committed to a " 23 man first team" It's easy to chat and rap about it on basis all Coaches give it good lip service. But this is truly different and we all need to get on board for the ride. This may be the first real "squad " strategy. All players like to start - but all the evidence is that he has instilled in all the players that the bench has an equally critical role in the Goal - winning the match at 80 + min . Whether some key positions vary on perceived current form or the nature of opposition ( eg. Wales compared with England ) is just part of the 23 man team . Chieka has taken this road as best bet to to beat equal or better teams on one off basis eg. RWC knockouts. . Others have said he doesn't have the same talent as 2007/2011 coaches had - but it is convenient to forget that Deans had an extraordinary list of injuries and literally no depth. Cheiks has played this luck card and it allows him to implement this plan. So big issue for me is not who starts but the bench plan. It is a backwards selection . First 6/2 or 5/3 . ? V England 6/2 is likely . This has big impact on inside backs. .Foley can't be on bench as no positional flexibility . So he starts or not at all . If only 2 backs , Gits covers 9 so must be bench . This drops Toomua into starting 12 . I speculate that Beale will be other back for talent, Chieka love, and flex cover - Beale and Gits. For England , toss your coin for Foley or Cooper..but choice will play full match . Same with 9. starter will finish . Even though Genia is solider , England backs are much quicker tan recently and Phipps may be best All other games including Wales can play 5/3 . 2 9s and Giteau to start as not restricted to bench . Toomua Beale are bench . That's not so hard then . This 23 man interchangeable team can win - and certainly has better chance than a best 15 man strategy for Oz Only caveats are not this strategy. . But are - not having a long range goal kicker likely to start - a Twickenham essential normally - AND only 2 hookers and 7 front rows when 6 are legally required for every match seems like risking not insuring your house for fire and then being smug about it when it doesn't burn down. A risk too far I say while swamped with wings.

2015-09-11T07:43:48+00:00

Common Sense

Guest


Again, it's only Uruguay. Nothing more than a glorified training drill.

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