2015 Rugby World Cup: The Big Questions answered

Oh yes, the panel is back on deck for the Rugby World Cup, and both Diggercane plus poet and logo design extraordinaire Harry Jones are licking their lips at the prospect of tackling the big Rugby World Cup issues every Friday.

We have tweaked the Big Questions format somewhat for the Rugby World Cup, taking on a slightly more conversational approach.

This time around, we’re coming up with questions all the time and picking the best three each week. In answering them, we’re passing our answers along the line and following on, meaning the agreement or disagreement will be immediate.

We’ll then also allow a ‘final word’ for each question to the first respondent, which will also change week as we work through the tournament.

Once we’ve had our say, it’s over to you guys. And we want your questions, too. Leave your big questions below in the comments, we’ll add them to the list, and give you a shout out when your question makes the cut.

So let’s crack on, with the first game of Rugby World Cup 2015 just one week away. I hope everyone’s commenced altering their sleep patterns accordingly.

Q1. Which will be the top five pool matches?
Harry
1. The big one: Australia vs Wales (October 10, Twickenham). So much on the line; a shorthanded Wales will have to fight to survive.
2. England vs Australia (October 3, Twickenham). It’s judgment day for Stuart Lancaster’s lightly capped lads against Michael Cheika’s veterans.
3. Argentina vs Georgia (25 September, Gloucester). Lock the doors. Put on a helmet.
4. France vs Ireland (11 October, Cardiff). Can perpetually underachieving Ireland finally make some noise in a World Cup? Avoiding the Springboks and All Blacks is crucial.
5. Samoa vs Scotland (10 October, Newcastle). St James’ Park will be part of Scotland for the day. Last game in Pool B; probably for a spot in the quarter-finals.

Digger: Hard to disagree with my poet friend here, however I would personally replace Argentina vs Georgia with England vs Wales (September 26, Twickenham). This match will set the tone for the pool, and one of these teams will find themselves under pressure very early on.

Brett: I similarly want to bump one of our esteemed colleague’s picks, because with the Leigh Halfpenny and Rhys Webb double Welsh blow, the Wales vs Fiji game on October 1 (Cardiff) now takes on added significance in Pool A.

Warren Gatland won’t be game to put his team through anything remotely resembling a contact session between now and the start of the World Cup for fear of another injury. If Wales happen to drop the England game, then it’ll absolutely be squeaky bum time against Fiji. And if Wales lose to Fiji, well, the game against Australia might only be for pride by then.

The last word: Harry
Looking at this list of games, and thinking of the places they’ll play, is whetting my appetite. I want this party to start. Right now!

Just listening to the anthems before the England vs Wales Test will add hair to your chest (but not my head). Is there any group of fans who sing the anthem better than the Welsh?

Also, I always like seeing the whole Royal Family dynamic, with the Prince of Wales cheering against the team that sings about saving his mum. It’s Oedipal and therefore right up my alley.

The Fiji vs Wales game is going to be a clattering threshing machine of a bout. Last one standing.

Q2. Which match will produce the first upset?
Harry: Fiji beats Wales (October 1, Cardiff). No Halfpenny. No Webb. No Plan B. Not enough physicality in the second row, and weaknesses on the edges in defence.

I see this as a banana peel game for Warren Gatland; he’s been designing his team to overpower Australia and edge England, but Fiji will run full tilt at the slower Welsh backs. It will be Agincourt and the dragons will be slain.

Digger: Fiji over Wales does seem the most viable at this point, however I would not be surprised to see Italy push their more illustrious rivals close, while Tonga may surprise Argentina (October 4, Leicester). Pressure and expectation can do funny things.

Brett: Fiji vs Wales isn’t a bad shout at all, however I’ll be keeping a sneaky eye on France vs Italy before that, on September 19 (Twickenham). And yes, you’re right – on paper, France should have no trouble with Italy at all, but let me just remind everyone that this is France we’re talking about, and the France’s Rugby World Cup fortunes have always hung on whichever France team turns up on the day.

First game of the tournament, France will be cherry ripe for an upset. The Azzurri will be cueing up re-runs of France vs Tonga from 2011 as motivation.

The last word: Harry
The problem with defining any result in Pool D as an upset is that France is impossible to ever describe as the favourite, while Ireland is either the ‘dark horse’, or the ‘smart pick’, or the ‘best in the North’, or no.2, or no.6 depending on which way the wind blows.

I see Ireland, France, and Italy as even money teams, relative to each other, if all we are looking at is the best five players in each team (assuming Sergio Parisse is healthy, which seems in doubt), but France has the most depth. Plus, the Irish are not good travellers, even when going to England, where half of Ireland lives.

Q3. Who will be the lowest-ranked team to make the quarter-finals?
Harry: Samoa, currently ranked 12th. Scotland don’t have the bodies to survive the battering of B pool, the roughest, toughest group in the tournament.

Digger: Again, I agree with Harry, Samoa appear the most likely although I do wonder if Tonga can cause an upset over Argentina. It’s not too far-fetched for two Island nations to feature in the quarter-finals.

Brett: Yeah, Samoa makes sense, and on current rankings, Pool B feels like the easiest to navigate. I will, however, give a nod to Tonga, currently ranked 11th, who are a chance of sneaking past Argentina in Pool C, especially if Los Pumas play anything like they started this year’s Rugby Championship.

And if 14th-placed Italy were able to spring the aforementioned upset over France, and Pool D becomes a race for bonus points and for-and-against in the games against Canada and Romania, you just never know. Stranger things have happened in World Cups.

The last word: Harry
I like the idea of the island nations making some noise. They will feel very comfortable in the small soccer stadia in England, where many of them play. But a word about upsets: rugby rankings are inexact. The Boks sat around at the beach and watched their rank climb back up, while Ireland was playing okay rugby and plummeting.

To me, rugby is more like boxing or even the Wimbledon seeding: there’s an element of subjectivity that makes it all more accurate. There is nothing I’ve seen in the last four years that tells me any non-SANZAR team is better than the Big Three. And let’s be honest, Samoa gave the All Blacks everything they wanted and more earlier this year. Does anyone really think Scotland can bother New Zealand that way?

Bonus point: name your early tip for player of the tournament
Harry: David Pocock or Handre Pollard.

Digger: From a biased point of view, I would suggest Ma’a Nonu. Outside of that, Pocock could be a reasonable bet from the south, while Chris Robshaw appeals as a likely Northerner.

Brett: For no obvious reason, Jonny Sexton was the name that came to mind. And realistically, if Ireland are to top Pool D and avoid New Zealand in reaching the semis, Sexton will have played a big part.