Golden Rose and Makybe Diva stakes: Group 1 preview and tips

Nice overview Cam. for me, i will be keeping an eye of the 3yr-olds. the Golden Rose could turn into a tricky affair on top of the ground - Exosphere has been spectacularly unsuccessful on Good3s. While Press Statement is returning to a Gd3 for the first time since the Atkins. Like you, agree Rageese looks an ace on the improve and still think Speak Fondly will prove a benchmark to jump. In melb, looking to see how El Greco and Snoopy measure up against these. Wraps on Sovereign Nation but got a bit lost at Geelong. May have to avoid traffic in this big field.Odyssey Moon should give us an indicator for these up-and-comers. With a rematch of the Blue Diamond Q, the Danehill S. looks a v.good race. Ready For Victory seems to have returned in excellent order with Kinglike and Raphaels Cat some others that will keep my attention. Reemah should go well on her journey to the shorter fillies classics like the 1000guineas.

Brave backing Divan at short odds. Hasn't raced for a year, a zabeel too. they are renowned fatties. Nominated for the Melb cup.. wait unitl they put blinkers on him? Not a race with a lot of depth but still a pass for me. Thanks for heads up on him but prefer to watch him at this stage.

With little pace the Makybe diva, Oliver would be most likely to take Fawkner forward. But how easily could this play out? Fawkner is a very good horse, but he often does find one better & needs to time his sprint well, as it has found him out on many occasions. But that's how hard this race is. I like Serenade to knock over Petite Filous, 10s is value for mine. Petite is likely to get some pressure up front, unlike her first three races, that can upset the cart, especially down the straight. The $1.80 on offer is madness. Race 5 has some value runners, leebaz is a proven gallopers, Sir Andrew ran poor at the Heath, forgive that run. So working with them around Deposition and yestdays songs in your exotics is my tip. Cheers & many collects punters.

This edition plainly is easier given that Boban was beaten 2.6 lengths last year by Dissident (and 2.5 by Fawkner) and is favourite this year.

Re race 9 I'm keen on set square. Last run screamed back me. Only query is the weight against the boys.

He was foaled in October so technically he is 7 years old still

Looks like you've answered me below mate!

Any worry that he's getting on now, and will be looking for further this preparation? Might take him a bit longer to hit his peak and might be a risk over the mile first up. He's an 8yo now, right?

i wish they had kept this grace as a group 2 - its not a group one its a lead up

I backed Fawker in this race last year (unfortunately) and he was $10. This edition is no easier and yet he is $6. He is a great chance, just think he is a bit short.

TODAY Race 3 Tally is a nice prospect from the O’Shea yard who jumped well on debut, but was restrained from wide gate, hit line hard in good maiden. This is a good maiden too though (although Hawkes has had plenty go under at short prices in recent times). Rise in distance suits, possibly looking for even longer on breeding. Def one to keep an eye on for the 2nd tier 3yo race program (gothic, carbine, sand guineas) or even might be their Derby hope. Worth an ew bet over lunch today at $10 or so. FLEM 2 – the same old horses who have been going around all winter get their last hurrah before the better quality stayers hit the scene in the next few weeks. And there aint much between them. For that reason, im having a nibble on Turner Bayou who is a horse I have had a good opinion of for some time. Using my long held theory of rather get on one run too soon, than one run too late, accepting he might need one more run. But, he has had 4 runs at 2400m+ for 3 wins and 2nd. The 2nd was to the in-form-at-the-time Arch Fire, and conceding him 8kgs going under 0.4length. At $34 id rather have a few coins on him, as he has been building well enough this prep after a long lay off, that he can spike quickly (he did in his last prep running 8th over 2000m, before winning over 2400m), otherwise it’s a lottery. 3 – 2kg top to bottom makes a good case for Oddesey Moon who is G1 placed and ran well first up on shockingly rails biased track (a lot at this meeting come through that MV meeting, so very wary that we could get some big form turnarounds) when trapped wide and working all the way, blinkers go off, and seems well placed. Patch Adam has a good fitness base for this and ran well last time in a decent race doing himself no favours in the run, with a stronger tempo, he can settle better here and be in the mix. No firm view though. 5 – Am keen to play here. The 2 faves standout for mine, by a good gap. Both are using this as final lead up to Vic Health cup, which is over the same distance. These lightly raced duo down bottom of weights are too good, esp at 1400m for those also with 54kgs and cant see the older horses who are stuck ratings wise conceding that much and beating them over 1400m. Its just a matter of punting strategy. I lean slightly Disposition class wise, but Y’Day Songs has had the run back from the spell. Safest option is probably just the quinella, and in a field of 14 I’d be shocked if it paid less than $4.50 or so. Similar to the Bounding-Rich Enuff race a few weeks back, the quinella is easier to pick than the winner, and it will pay better too ! Or you can mix it up as a box exacta – same gamble hoping it pays more than double the quin. 6 – no firm view, but im with rich enuff. I think he might get out to good odds too, north of $4. First up run was pretty good, given long spell and first go wet track, ran fast time this day last year winning down straight, no doubting his talent, he totally won me over last spring. Not a big bet, but worth a wager if he gets to $4, which I think he will. 7 – my views on fawkner are well documented, and im having a sizeable play here, esp with some bookies offering money back a place. Clearly the benchmark horse in the race, and for mine the benchmark WFA horse in the country. Barrier draw is actually good for him, lots of backmarkers in the race, but crucially entirely platinum draws one outside him, no brainer to just roll across with him. Fawkener used to be swooper, but llyod has explained this was a long (2yr) education plan to reach him to settle, now they can ride him forward (which you need to be a regular in WFA races) knowing he will come back and settle when tempo slows. A repeat of his run in this race last year (when he easily beat boban) should win it. No reason to think he wont run as well, esp noting this year not even entered for melb cup, so being aimed purely at cox plate, so you can expect more sharpness and less dourness (not that he is ever dour). Alpine eagle obv a big spruik horse of mine, but I just cant back him first go in the big league at virtually same price as fawkner, and he raced well, but unpressionally first up. you cant make those rookie errors (hanging in, layout under riding, etc…) in the elite, a horse like fawkner will put 2 lengths on you whilst you do. anyone who pots fawkner cos of his is rubbish, didn’t race at 2, had 2 runs as late 3yo, and only races 4 times a year, and lives in luxury. 8yo in age, but 5yo in body physique and wear/tear – always been a sound horse, given time to grow when younger. Cracking race, but fawkener wont let you down, esp on dry ground at flem. 8 – no firm view. But im backing the hope horses. Madam gangster went up $17 and that was good enough for me, incredible record since joining the stable. Have to respect shinn rides plat rocker and ran well against the boys last time. So playing the split there. Backing them both ew, if one runs a place I break even. No knock noble protector, don’t think gate 1 is that bad for her. 9 – another very tough finish to quaddy. My top hopes: Observational was huge win first up in oz, form from race not crash hot, but respect this stable, esp at this meeting (and turnball stks). Don Doremo big run first up, on-pacer in a race with lots of backmarkers, progressive horse who has a peak run in him good enough to take this out. Garud, goes well fresh, but like him fresh at this trip, beat manganpal easily last summer this distance giving it weight which ties in well form-lines wise. He or She, much better suited back to try track and chased hard behind Charmed Harmony. Igigimacool goes in the quad. That’s my top 5. Pushed for a bet, I’d go garud at the value. ADL 5 -First time we race on a dry track in ADL for months I reckon,and Classy Jack is one I used to tip a bit, but have dropped off, but getting back on now onto drier ground, as all his wins are on firm ground, where he can lead, rail and keep going. Some of his main rivals here have their best form and recent winning form on wet ground. 6 – Lord Aspen highly promising horse, stable knocked back big hong kong offers, put together string of wins last spring, had knee surgery, had an autumn prep, but didn’t race. Might need this first up, but stable have said he is coming to Flem for 1400m race on Turnball Stks Day, and this is a very winnable race, even at 80%, he can take it out. Magic Boy is 2nd pick, but Lord Aspen towelled it up twice last spring and they meet on level weights. King Buddy is a 9yo win less in last 2yrs and hardly going well and his 2013 wins were in BM78 races (this is BM90), doubt he is going to raise the bar from 78 to 90 as a 9yo. Cellarmaster is a non-winner with weight, will get back to last, and hasn’t below 1400m since 2010. Daytona Grey has its recent wins on heavy ground. Lord Aspen should just win. 8 – Divan is another big spruik horse of mine, and he didn’t make to ‘horses to follow’ list a while back, only because I thought he was retired. Stable have gelded him and I reckon this is an education campaign similar to the ilk zipping and fawkner had in their 4yo season, where the task was to get some wins on the board, get some resilience and race smarts into them, and take things slowly, but boost the racing, win-by-win, coming through the grades up to around 90. He quite simply should just win, and I expect him to then string 3 or 4 together in a row, if they place him in his right grade, and possibly then wind up in a race like the coongy. Suffice to say the ADL quaddy is very gettable on Sat. as really only 3 or 4 hopes in first leg, one out 2nd leg, 3 hopes max in 3rd leg and one out divan. SUN 5 - Ducal Castle has picked a good race to kick off in against some older non-winning type horses up top of weights, and hails from the good ‘princesa’ (ex kapchat) bloodlines, and he can salute on Sunday arvo just before kick off at the G. Best: Divan Next: Fawkner ew, Disposition/Y’Day Songs quinella, Lord Aspen

the barrier is perfect for fawkner. lots of backmarkers int the race, and the likely leader in entirely platinum drawn immediately outside. they wont hum along in the first part of the race, he lands 2nd or 3rd one of the rail. he was scr from caul not because of injury, just they didnt like the wide draw in that race, without speed his outside and from the tight 1400m start at caul. happy for people to be against fawkner, but the barrier is a poor (in my view wrong) reason to dismiss him. he is a very clean from the gates now as an older horse, look at his runs last prep on the video and how quick away he is.

Love a kiwi raider.

I think Happy trails at $12 is overs. Great record at flemington, loves the mile, 3rd up, he was just idling along in the memsie. I think he is worth a speculator. I also rate Alpine Eagle, he will win something, maybe the underwood, I dont think he will be peaking for this though and agree that he is under the odds definitely. I thought Hi world was a bit disappointing in the memsie. He loomed at the top of the straight but couldnt accelerate with them. Pass this time.

I am most interested in what the Kiwi three can produce - Rising Romance, Volkstock'n'barrell and Mongolian Khan. I think the major races will all be won by international raiders this year (the local stocks are pretty thin) but these three might have something to say about it.