Fiji's form forces Cheika to show his hand

The road to Rugby World Cup 2015 saw coaches Warren Gatland, Stuart Lancaster, John McKee and Michael Cheika sitting around a poker table.

With every day the tournament drew closer we got to see the coach of each nation in dreaded grupo de la muerte bet, fold and bluff his way towards the tournament.

Pablo Lemoine, the coach of Uruguay, was relegated to serving drinks with the hope of stealing some chips when the others weren’t looking. And while he still has a stake in the game, the legendary mind games of Warren Gatland have been stifled as six of his players have collapsed with injury in the space of a fortnight.

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Throughout the pre-tournament skirmishes Gatland, McKee and Lancaster have all been relatively straight-forward in terms of showing their intent, opting to give players and combinations time to settle in before the tournament.

Michael Cheika on the other hand has played his cards much closer to his chest, opting for experimentation, using multiple combinations and forcing players to compete for spots instead. In this metaphorical poker game you can imagine him peering across the top of his cards, past his opponents and towards the ultimate prize on a pedestal in the corner: Bill circa 2015.

The cryptic demeanour of the Australian coach has only served to feed speculation around his true motivations. Some have even gone as far as to suggest that he sacrificed our first real shot at the Bledisloe Cup in years simply to maintain the mental advantage over New Zealand. The theory being that the chances of beating the All Blacks at Eden Park were almost nil and that Cheiks didn’t want to give Steve Hansen and his All Blacks the reassurance that they could beat Australia’s best 23 after the loss in Sydney.

With the court of public opinion having settled on the fact that Cheika’s somewhat unusual 31-man squad was designed to allow him to field two entirely separate teams, the selection of the team to play Fiji has been broadly touted as the day that we would see him lower his cards, and reveal his hand. Now that day has come, what is it that we see?

Cheika has named a team which features 11 of 15 players who triumphed over New Zealand in the first Bledisloe Test in Sydney. This would suggest that he believes the backbone and combinations from that squad to be his strongest team.

That being the case, perhaps the conspiracy theorists were correct and the Australian head coach made the call to let the Bledisloe go for one more year – whether that was for the purpose of mind games or further opportunities to review his players we will never know.

Nonetheless, the past is the past and at the end of the day Cheika will not be judged on his performance in the second Bledisloe Test, but whether or not he can fulfil the famous war-cry and bring back Bill.

The prospect of the fabled third hoisting of the trophy is made all the more tantalising with the traditional southern hemisphere powers of rugby having won two tournaments a-piece and further still by unconfirmed assertions that the winner of a third tournament is, under the rules, entitled to retain the trophy. I have not been able to confirm this to be the case, perhaps someone else on The Roar can.

With so much on the line in this tournament, many Australian rugby fans (myself included) have been tormented by the lack of week-to-week consistency in the Wallaby 23 as Cheika chopped and changed and experimented to understand where his best team lies. But with the first team sheet of the World Cup released we can rest assured that the bluffs have ended. Myself, as well as many others, have heaved a sigh of relief as it would appear that the selections are both bold and well considered – the kind that win a knockout tournament.

The scrum will be at its best, anchored on the loose-head side by Scott Sio who has thoroughly outperformed alternate James Slipper all year.

The second row has size, mongrel and looks like it can win line-outs.

Crucially, the Hooper-Pocock double act is back in town, having been wildly successful on its first tour only to be cruelly denied an encore until this point. There is seldom a fan I have spoken to who believes that this is not the right option having seen it in action, though I would have disagreed at one point, I am now certain it is the right way to go and reassured in the knowledge that Cheika agrees.

Will Genia and Bernard Foley at halfback and flyhalf respectively is, in my opinion, the best option at the moment with Nick Phipps in a serious form slump and the gamble of Quade Cooper not required in the context of Australia’s stellar outside backs.

Only the selection of Rob Horne hints at being for a purpose rather than on absolute form, with his kamikaze defensive style well suited to marking Fijian wrecking ball Nemani Nadolo. Horne will do a fine job in this difficult assignment and we might hope in doing so secures his spot on the wing where he remains one of the best, if most underrated, players in the country.

So then. All good. Australia have climbed up to second in the world and the Bledisloe 2 fiasco was a second-string team whom were sacrificed for the greater good and Australia should cruise to a comfortable victory over world number 9 Fiji. Right?

Well not really.

If the 2015 Rugby World cup was to have a theme thus far it would be the ‘tournament of unexpected results’, with Argentina pushing New Zealand to the limit, Georgia beating Tonga and the folklore bound story of the day that the feeble Cherry-Blossoms toppled the mighty Springboks. Having rubbed salt into the wounds of most of my South African friends already I won’t comment further on that final point for fear of waking up with a Wallaby head in my bed.

Fiji even won a tight head scrum and consistent lineout ball against England. It’s like someone held a mirror up to the Rugby Universe and we’re seeing an inverse image oof the tournament!

If you agree with Greg Mumm’s assessment of the opening match of the tournament between Australia and Fiji, which I do, you will appreciate that in very real terms Fiji got the better of England in the set piece.

This is a problem, as traditionally the hierarchy of set-piece play between the three teams in question has been England, Australian and then Fiji – in that order. If Fiji can overpower Australia at the set-piece and get over their nasty kicking habit what’s left is one of the most exciting and lethal backlines in world rugby, who have nothing to lose, running straight at the Wallabies and that is a scary prospect.

As always, Cheika has an ace up his sleeve in the form of he calls the ‘finishers’ and the rest of us mere mortals call the bench. The ability to replace the full tight-five and presumably the 9-10-12 combo with Nick Phipps, Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale should allow these devastating runners to take advantage of a tiring Fijian side who don’t have the benefit of a world class strength and conditioning regime.

But make no mistake. This is not a warm-up match and Cheika has not shown his cards without good reason.

Fiji are the real deal and if Australia is not careful they could find themselves sitting with the ‘Boks in World Cup hell. Either way, with the Wallabies riding a wave of confidence and Fiji’s backs up against the wall expect fireworks.

And most importantly, let’s get behind the Wallabies in their campaign to bring home the most coveted artifact in the Rugby Universe for a record third time.

Alex is an ex-rugby player with 10 seasons under his belt, almost exclusively with the brains trust up in the front row. Despite passion for the game, his best work was usually seen at the pub post-match where he mastered the dark art of talking bollocks about rugby.
You can follow Alex on Instagram @whiskyandiron and Twitter @alexwood_1.