When they’re at their best, they can’t be beaten. That’s the catch-cry that’s come to characterise the Hawks’ continued favouritism for the flag in 2015.
And you can see why it’s stuck.
After their scary dismantling of the Swans in the 2014 grand final, the Hawks were widely touted as a shoe-in to become only the second team to win a three-peat in the modern era.
This prediction was affirmed when the Hawks obliterated the Swans by 89 points in July this year, making them the shortest-priced premiership favourites after Round 16 on record.
Yet, the Hawks’ season has been somewhat inconsistent. Indeed, it took until Round 10 for them to string two wins together. And although the mid-section of their season saw some big scalps, they still lost to Richmond and Port Adelaide in games they were expected to win.
Their latest loss – a 32-point defeat at the hands of West Coast in the second qualifying final – was another shock to the system. It was the first final the Hawks had lost since the 2012 grand final.
In the aftermath of the defeat, Alastair Clarkson and the entire Hawthorn fraternity said the loss was an aberration, and highlighted the Hawks’ previous form as credits in the bank. And after the Hawks stunned Adelaide in last week’s semi-final, the Hawks’ loss to the Eagles may very well have been described as just that: an aberration.
Yet, if you inspect the Hawks’ season more closely, the loss to West Coast was an aberration only in terms of the margin of defeat, but not the defeat itself. Prior to that, the Hawks had lost six times throughout 2015.
These were days when they hadn’t played at their best because, as we have been indoctrinated, when the Hawks are at their best they certainly can’t be beaten. Yet, the difference between the Hawks’ best and worst this year has been telling.
Bring it, and they’re capable of smashing any side.
But when they’ve failed to play at 100 per cent, they’ve lost to sides such as Greater Western Sydney and Port Adelaide, teams that both finished outside the top eight.
Question marks have hung over players more this year than in the past. Jarryd Roughead has at times been quiet, David Hale looks older than ever, and the public aren’t sold on the combination of Brian Lake and James Frawley in defence.
So should we expect the best Hawthorn to turn up this Friday?
Ordinarily, the unequivocal answer would be yes. And it more than likely still will be. But if there was ever a year where Hawthorn were going to falter, this one – characterised by massive wins, but also inconsistency – could be it.
Having to travel to Perth twice in three weeks certainly doesn’t help either.
Still, don’t get ahead of yourselves, Freo. This is the reigning premier we’re talking about, and one of the greatest sides of the modern era.
And great sides step up when it counts.
Dean
Guest
U you were right a real workman like performance a goal a QTR. bahhhaaaaaa
bart
Guest
Are you aware of the McClelland trophy ?.
Don Freo
Guest
Funny...listening to Barry Hall and Mick McGuane... Barry said a problem for Freo is that Ballantyne has not been playing like in previous years. McGuane agreed that he seems to be badly out of form. I'd have thought that all of the games he has played in the past 13 weeks have been gems. All one of them. The east has no idea who plays for Freo.
jax
Guest
If WC beats North. I agree, if the Hawks beat Freo it then becomes their flag to lose. Home ground advantage and all that finals experience will come to the fore. If WC can handle the pressure and bring their A-game they will win but it will need to be the best they have ever played. That's a fair-sized 'IF' mind you. It's going to be a first-time experience for 21 of the boys but I'll back them in anyway.
GazzaW
Guest
How can you be the worst minor premier? They were standout early and won ugly when injured which proves they are hard to beat.
jax
Guest
Thanks for your comments Wilson I appreciate it. I didn't intend to dig so deep into this topic but that's what happens sometimes. I don't know your list well enough to know how quickly you can regenerate but I will believe you as you know your team better than I do. Free agency has been a game-changer which makes it really hard to predict how quickly teams will rise and fall season to season. Suffice to say that the Hawks are one of the best clubs in the land on and off the field which makes it a destination club which should help your cause no end. As an outsider I credit Dunstall and Kennett for setting them in the right direction and also Don Scott for his work in avoiding the merger. Dunstall pushed hard for Clarko and it turned out to be a master stroke. Good luck tonight!
johno
Guest
"The whole football community" - i.e. Victorian journo's who still can;t tell Mayne from Mundy from Fyfe from Shaun McManus
jax
Guest
I think you're being a little ungrateful tbh. Your team has been playing in GF's since 2008 and you've had an amazing run winning three flags. If I were you I wouldn't be so defensive, I'd be grateful because not many teams get to taste the amount of success that your team has. Rewind to the very beginning and read the headline (Hawks best is the best) - that's a big statement to make and judging by your comments maybe you believe it is true and it's your prerogative to do so. I disagreed and I shared some reasons why and it seems to have put your nose out of joint. Not even the most parochial fan can expect their team to keep winning flags forever and the natural cycle will ensure that all clubs, no matter high they have climbed must ultimately come back to earth eventually. That's been the premise behind my position from the start and I think it's accurate. You then jumped into the conversation and proceeded to tell me that I didn't understand what WC's best was which I took umbrage to. I pushed back, just like you did but the difference is that I am speaking objectively about your club while you started making it a little personal. Pagan - you have contradicted yourself somewhat. You said that Simmo didn't learn how to coach from Pagan but then said this about Clarko. "So in my humble opinion, he formed his philosophy through years and years of study and research" Why should that be any different for Simmo, or any coach for that matter? Of course he took parts of Pagan with him just like Clarko took parts from Choco. I think this is indisputable so please don't dispute common-sense. Pagan & Simmo - Simmo likes to create a hybrid of Pagan's paddock with the key tweaks being 1) WC forwards flood the opposition defense as they have the engines to run all day and our defense needs the help atm anyway - this creates the paddock for WC forwards to run back into which creates one on one contests. 2) Instead of bombing the ball in like North did WC use Hawks like precision to hit a target but there are times that they will bomb it in (Pagan-like) but they do that in the hope someone will take a mark and if that doesn't work they are hoping that the ball comes to ground so that our small forwards and midfielders can crumb and if that doesn't work the defenders are already in place after having pushed up the ground so as lock the ball inside 50 with their forward press which they learned under Woosha and Walsh. If the opposition regains possession WC's web is waiting to intercept the rebound 3) who knows how many of Pagan's philosophies are being used by Simmo today but it's naive to think that there wouldn't be a lot of them as that was a very successful era that he was a part of and he was there for 14 years. "And please don’t compare your WCE with this Hawks team just yet. Maybe in 5-7 years if you have won three or so flags' I've been comparing WC to the Hawks since last season when I saw what Simmo was implementing from Hawthorn. Are you really that precious that you can't give credit to another team/coach for taking elements of Clarko's, Woosha's, Pagan's and who knows who else's game plan and philosophies and blending them together to create a new game plan? Take it as a compliment. I'd argue that this is exactly what Clarko did at the Hawks which is why I find your comments one-eyed. On the one hand your having a go at me for not giving credit to Clarko then in the next breath your asking me not to compare my Eagles to your Hawks. Which one is it as I'm getting conflicting messages? Paul thanks for sharing your thoughts. Your Lions are really good example of a once mighty team coming back down to earth but that's another story as we both know there are mitigating factors at play but I would encourage NYH to take a look at Paul and the Lions and be a little grateful for the last 7 years as you guys have had quite the ride while many others, including my WCE have had to put up with all sorts of comments being leveled at us, some of them wrong and others unfair. Your team has received a little criticism from me and you spit the dummy? Can we drop this now? Your Hawks have been wonderful since 2008 and they are still in with a great chance of a 3-peat. I hope that you feel a little better now? Let's just enjoy the footy and barrack as hard as we can for our respective teams and be grateful that we made it to a prelim. That's what I'm going to do anyway. Good luck tonight!
johno
Guest
Unfortunately the Hawks best seems to be played at the MCG or Aurora .... Can they bring their best to Subi in a final? They lost to Port after going down by 9 goals in the first half in Adelaide, struggled to beat GWS Away (10 points), waited until the final term to get away from Adelaide in Adelaide, snuck past West Coast in the regular season before falling on their face in the finals against the same team. Their form away from Victoria / Tasmania has not exactly been setting the world on fire in 2015 3-2 seems ok, but the average winning margin has been 3 goals, while they lost to 2 teams that brought intense pressure. Freo on the other hand have won 11 lost 2 at Subi (Eagles and Tigers) this year and won 7 lost 3 away from Subi (including the white flag game against Port) Those predicting a Hawks win by 10 goals plus are in for a rude shock I feel.
New York Hawk
Guest
The whole football community outside of Freo supporters thinks Freo is the worst minor premier in the history of the game. Can't wait to see the Hawks give you the old heave ho tonight! 10 goals + to the Hawks is my prediction. Half of Subi will be empty by 3/4 time!
New York Hawk
Guest
FYI - top spot is determined after the final siren in the GF, and not a moment before.
New York Hawk
Guest
I did not once say WCE's season was an over-achievement. On the contrary, I agree with Jax that they are where they rightfully should be. At this time. I am just defending the Hawks, whom you summarily dismiss as too old and too slow. Jeez, we've never heard that one before.... Congrats on being right Jax! I merely pointed out why everyone thought you were wrong in April and never suggested you were wrong now. Please point out what Simpson learned from Pagan as you are right, I don't know what to look for. I can't see Kennnedy one out in the forward 50 pretending to be the Duck. I do see a workman-like midfield. But that is where the comparisons end. Who did Clarko learn from? Great question! Clarko learnt from many sources. He went to uni and did an MBA, was an assistant at Port to Choco, St Kilda to Watson and even what's-his-name at the Dees, while between AFL roles he coached some team in the Murray River league and Central Districts in the SANFL. So in my humble opinion, he formed his philosophy through years and years of study and research. His is whip-smart, a born fighter and always backs his players. he took a down-and -out club and turned them into a powerhouse in 4 years. He reinvented the game several times. He turned made the most amazing player in the comp expendable. So please tell me what I am missing with Pagan's influence on Clarko? Giving players a spray? And please don't compare your WCE with this Hawks team just yet. Maybe in 5-7 years if you have won three or so flags, we can reignite this debate. Unless of course, the Hawks have more flags to show in the meantime....
Wilson
Roar Guru
as a Mad Hawk Supporter I would have to agree with most of what you have to say there Jax. WC did destroy the Hawks confidence in that game they stop the hawks normal run an carry and the team lost it Confidence. and with People that say the Hawks Best is Unbeatable are crazy, no team is Unbeatable. "next year the Hawks will start to slide just as Geelong did" agree we will Slide but I see it more like what happened after the 2008 we dropped back blooded some young players and then came back hard. there are some good young players in the wings of the hawks that are just waiting for the Mitchell, Burgoyne and Lakes to move aside and I think they will not be playing as many games as they have this year for that reason
Paul D
Roar Guru
Have to agree with Jax – while it is always a bit hard to swallow a parochial fan running through the “I WAS RIGHT” banner, the fact is he has been saying all season that WCE was going to be a major contender at the pointy end, for all the reasons he’s listed, and so it has proven. Given how disappointing West Coast was last season, you can’t argue that this year has been anything other than a massive over-achievement for the club. They have put together an outstanding structure in both offence and defence, shrugged off a terrible injury toll to their spine, particularly in defence, and have won through to the prelim through toppling the premiers in an emphatic defeat that seems to have shattered the Hawks confidence and reacquainted them with mortality.
jax
Guest
I'm not sure where to start as once again there are a number of points wrong. I don't know it all and I've never said that I do. In fact I've often said that I don't and that I make as many mistakes as the next person. I'm not one-eyed and I didn't know that I needed to preface every objective comment I make on Hawthorn with a disclaimer that pays compliments to your past glories. Shall we all get down on our knees and pay homage to them now? That's a very arrogant position to have and we all know what happens when dynasties become arrogant. I think it is you that has the one-eye and the more that you type the more apparent it becomes. Read my comment below which were postsd before your reply and you will see that I do pay them and that I am objective. I don't know who Natalie is but I'm quite certain that we are very different and I'm not a fan of sweeping generalisations and characterisations as they are invariably almost always wrong. It seems that I've touched a nerve with you as you've resorted to using a derogatory term and overall you've become quite antsy and sensitive to any criticism of your team. It's you that needs to deal with it. I don't have anything to deal with. Approx 2 months ago on this forum I put my WC cue in the rack and said that if they went out in straight sets the season would still be a success and nothing has changed. Everything happening to WC right now is just a bonus to me so I won't be disappointed no matter what happens next but I think you might be if things don't go your way. "Everyone laughed at your early WCe prediction because it seemed insane." Which group turned out to be the insane one? I never, ever follow the experts or the crowd because I have learned that experts in every field invariably are wrong on the big topics, especially unpopular ones. "Adam Simpson didn’t learn his coaching skills from Pagan" Yes he did. He played in 10 finals campaigns under Pagan and was captain of the club for 5 years. How can you work for someone for 10 years and not be influenced by them? He was with the Hawks in 4 finals campaigns. Of course he learned how to coach from Pagan and it formed many of his coaching philosophies and you can see them manifested in his current game plan if you knew what to look for. He also learned a lot from Clarko but let's follow your logic for a minute - who did Clarko learn from and how far back shall we go to find the true source to give the credit to? The fact is that they learn from all of their experiences and that they all play a part in what we see today. I hope you can see how wrong that statement was now? I first met Adam while I was in Cairns visiting family, he was visiting his Dad who was working at the NAB with my cousin. He's one of the nicest blokes that you'd ever wish to meet and he was very mature for his age. It was easy to see that he was a leader even back then. People follow others and rarely form their own opinions on any topic. It's very easy to dismiss my predications as those of a one-eyed fan but that's disrespectful and dismissive. Across many posts I gave my reasons for making the claims that I did and almost every one of them has turned out to be correct. It was not the predictions of an insane, one-eyed WC supporter, you can take that to to the bank. As I said at the time - to me it was obvious what was about to happen at WC and I didn't think that it required any special skills or insights to spot it. You only had to connect the dots that were right in front of you but most didn't and that's their mistake not mine.
Don Freo
Guest
It's still how they determine top spot.
New York Hawk
Guest
Pretty big weakness, that scoring thing. Assuming of course that the scores still determine the winner...
New York Hawk
Guest
Sorry Jax, you know it all. I should have said pundits, as in the people like you on this forum. You are "Natalie Swans Fan" from 2014 under a different pen name and with a different team. Everyone laughed at your early WCe prediction because it seemed insane. I watched the Eagles every week as two of my best mates are Weagles supporters and it makes it easier to keep in touch from the other side of the planet. I have a great deal of respect for WCE and what they have been able to do. Again, I watch them every week. Just like Natalie Swans Fan, you are a one-eyes dreamer. You show no respect to Hawthorn and what they have accomplished, despite the fact that a) it is pretty impressive and b) your team has directly benefitted. Adam Simpson didn't learn his coaching skills from Pagan... Is the Hawks era at an end? Maybe. But we have money in the bank. Or what everyone else calls Flags. You have potential. That means nothing. Boo-hoo you have no experience on the 'G in big finals. Deal with it. Good teams make finals, great teams seize the opportunity and win flags. Your team is the former. Clearly the Hawks are the latter. Good luck to you and for what it is worth, I hope our respective teams meet in the GF. I'm sure you will blame the VFL if you lose that too.
jax
Guest
One important insight into the Hawks relates to confidence, or lack thereof and I'd like to share it as I've been tracking this since the WC v Hawks final. Post-game when Lewis was asked what the Hawks needed to work on to beat Adelaide he quickly and emphatically replied 'confidence' and when he was interviewed last Wednesday evening he said the same thing again (more than once) and other Hawks players have also said it as has Clarko. That tells me that WC ripped the Hawks confidence to pieces and that they are still trying to piece it back together. Internally they know that there best is beatable and that they are hanging on by the skin of their teeth. It should be noted that champion teams can still win a flag from this position as can any of the final 4 teams that are left standing. I'm not writing the Hawks off just yet as I don't know what Freo will turn up tonight but I know that their early season form is better than the Hawks best so I hope they bring it and beat you so that we can have a derby GF. If the Hawks beat Freo you have every chance to beat WC (assuming they make it) as you are the reigning premiers and it will be played on your home deck and you have battle hardened champions galore striving for.a rare 3-peat. Irrespective, next year the Hawks will start to slide just as Geelong did so you better make hay while the sun is still shining. My comments are an insight into the future, make of them what you will and good luck.
jax
Guest
"Jax doesn’t understand what a team’s “best” means" Really, and you do of course? What a condescending statement. Let me tell you what I do know. During the pre-season I said WC would play finals this year and that they already the list in place to challenge for a flag. I was scoffed at and ridiculed by 99.9% of people but now everyone single one of them has formed the same opinion as me, it just took them longer to realise it. It's the same again with this situation. WC's best is better than the Hawks, is that clear enough? Your defence is old and slow and your midfield isn't far behind it. This is the Hawks last chance at a flag for a little while so enjoy it while you can. The only thing that may swing the result is the venue that the game is played at and WC's lack of experience. Your era is quickly drawing to a close while WC's is just opening. We've all had years of watching the Hawks best so I am familiar with it. I know WC better than most while I doubt that you know very much about them at all. Somehow that qualifies you to know more about WC's best than me which is strange to say the least. "all the punters are writing us off." Wrong, the Hawks are the favourites and over 60% of the media experts have tipped them to beat Freo. Any more pearls of wisdom for us?