2015 Rugby World Cup Big Questions: Minnows closing the gap

We’re right into it now, with a dozen games under our collective belt for the 2015 Rugby World Cup. And it’s caused a shift here at the Big Questions, because from a World Cup front, we can finally ask questions based on something that actually happened.

The first week has given us tries of all possible variations – anyone else love that the first try of the tournament was a penalty try? – and of course, the biggest upset in the history of anything remotely resembling competitive endeavour.

Yes, without any hint of exaggeration, Japan’s 34-32 win last weekend is the biggest upset since the dawn of time; and furthermore, it cancels out all losses henceforth.

This week we’ve tackled a couple of our own questions, but they’re all pearlers. But we want your questions for next week, so leave us your curliest below in the comments and we’ll add them to the list. And once we’ve had our say today, it’s over to you guys.

Question 1 (from Harry Jones): “What is the standout tactic or style of the 2015 Rugby World Cup thus far? The cross kick? The maul formed in general play, as opposed to from a lineout? Ultra-quick scrums?”

Diggercane: The standout for me has been the positive attitude the games have been played with so far. There has been real intent from all sides to use the ball and pretty willing in the contact areas as well.

Sure, one could argue the execution is lacking at times but to me that is to be expected given the nerves and playing in front of enthusiastic crowds at the start of the tournament. Perhaps this is a positive impact from the introduction of bonus points in the pool stages, I cannot be certain, however long may it continue throughout the balance of the tournament.

Harry: Yes, to Digger’s point. The teams (with the unsurprising exception of Ireland – 30 kicks from hand) have kept the ball in-hand more than usual. Tonga and Italy should have kicked more (they kicked an astonishingly low 12 times, each), but most of the teams ranged from 17-18 to 22-24 kicks per game. This style continues a long trend at the World Cup.

However, I have noticed the kick-pass fashion; Jonny Sexton even tried one on his own try-line! It’s an exciting play, which looks daft when it fails and genius when it comes off. Finally, I have noticed that referees are allowing extraordinarily skew feeds into set pieces. If this is suddenly tightened, as it was against Uruguay, it will feel quite unfair.

Brett: Certainly have to agree with Digger’s point about the positive intent of teams, and the pursuit of bonus points I think is a major factor. It’s essentially the same impact on the game we saw in the early days of Super Rugby.

But I’ll throw quick throws into formed lineouts as the surprise tactic. It’s clear teams are ‘calling’ their option as they get to the lineout mark, and then they just form the lineout and throw to the mark. New Zealand and Japan used it to good effect over the opening weekend, and several other teams did too. And it’s just smart; the opposition doesn’t get the chance to read body language, or even hear a call in some cases. The throw is that quick that the only options are to either not contest, or guess where to jump.

The Last Word: Digger
Some great observations from the guys here and as we get further into the tournament I expect we will see a few more tricks come out of the bag. The major takeaway is the positive intent the teams have shown thus far and hopefully this will continue throughout the balance of the tournament. What have you Roarers noticed?

Question 2 (Brett): “If South Africa do end up second in Pool B now, is it better for the Pool of Death (Pool A) contenders to finish first and play the Boks in the quarter-final, or finish second and face Samoa, Scotland or Japan in the quarter-final before New Zealand (probably) in the semi-final?”

Digger: I do not believe any team should give their potential playoff opponents any real thought. All of the previous World Cup winners have gone through the tournament unbeaten. That is not to say it is impossible to win the tournament after dropping a pool game, but for me momentum and belief is vital.

If you are good enough, and hold that belief, then your likely opponents should not be given a second thought. Winning is a habit, potentially manipulating your mindset for what may be ‘perceived’ an easier route will only end in tears.

Harry: The Pool A bridesmaid will obviously prefer to play the infighting, divided, fragile underdog South Africa than top dog and über-fit New Zealand, who tripped their way to a very nice win over a high performing Argentina. We can all congratulate Japan’s brave squad, but the truth is both the Pumas and the All Blacks would’ve dispatched the Blossoms by 25 or more points.

Brett: This is a reworked version of the hypothetical question I posed last week. And I agree with Harry, on current form you’d certainly fancy your chances against the Boks at the moment.

But in truth, I can still see South Africa topping Pool B anyway. Japan will now need to beat Samoa to really throw the cat among the pigeons, and so I can easily see all four teams having lost at least one game by the end of the pools. This means that bonus points in all games from here on will be crucial, just further underlying Digger’s point on the first question.

The Last Word: Digger
I do have to agree with my far more learned question teammates here that the Springboks do appeal as a better opponent than the All Blacks right now, but the truth is you just don’t know. You know what they say about cornered animals… only time will tell. At the end of the day, focus on your own form and if you are serious about winning this thing, the opponent shouldn’t matter.

Question 3 (Digger): “On the evidence so far, are we seeing a genuine closing of the gap between the top tier nations and the perceived second tier teams, and is it likely to continue throughout the balance of the tournament?”

Digger: Obviously, I am referring to the success of both Georgia and Japan from the opening rounds and their victories over more established nations, and for me, yes, I do believe we are. And the more exposure these teams have against established nations will only benefit them and rugby as whole.

More regular competition is a must and hopefully we will see more effort to include them and others in regular matches against the bigger unions. I have my doubts about whether these teams can continue their momentum into the tournament as I am unsure that they have the depth or experience in their squads to maintain their consistency, but I sure hope I am wrong.

Harry: Definitely! The percentage of improvement for teams like Argentina, Japan, Georgia, and other ‘minnows’ was always greater than the ‘top teams’. Regular exposure to superior teams has a profound effect on quality, after the initial spankings.

Brett: I think we definitely are. Georgia, Japan, and Samoa were the big movers on the World Rugby rankings this week – and South Africa the big loser, obviously – and there is only a bit over two ranking points between Argentina in eighth, and Japan in 11th.

But ranking points aside, I think we can see it on the field, that the ‘next eight’ teams really aren’t that far off the teams ranked two to seven. New Zealand remain a different level, but we saw how Fiji pushed England and Australia. Those performances showed that the top tier teams can’t take anyone easy, or they’ll get their arse handed to them on the biggest stage in the game. Wonderful times for the game!

The Last Word: Digger
Great times indeed for the game. The key is how these teams are incorporated into more regular matches outside the World Cup, and this charge needs to be led by World Rugby. The ability and enthusiasm has been shown and the gap has greatly improved.

Taking advantage of this and continuing to close that gap should be the priority for World Rugby, particularly when you consider that Japan is the next World Cup host (not to mention the Olympics Sevens program in Brazil) outside of the more traditional rugby strongholds.

Bonus point: Not necessarily player of the tournament, but for which player will the Rugby World Cup be the ‘breakout’ moment in their career?

Harry: Conor Murray. He’s quietly worked himself into one of the best No.9s for the last two years, but now the world sees it.

Digger: Sam Burgess? Nah, kidding. Or am I? Actually, the Romanian halfback Florin Surugiu caught my eye against France. Even at 30, perhaps this tournament may propel him into a full-time professional contract.

Brett: I reckon we’ve already seen him in two games: Nemani Nadolo. I thought he was well contained against the Wallabies, but he was great against England, and could yet cause some Pool A carnage. If Fiji spring a few upsets to get through, Nadolo could be 2015’s Rupeni Caucau.