It hasn’t worked out the way I thought it would, when all those weeks ago I declared Hawthorn were virtually good things to win the AFL premiership. But here we are at grand final week, and guess what? I still think Hawthorn are good things to win the flag.
I know what the bookmakers are saying, that there is not much in this one. I also have a clear memory of what happened just a few short weeks ago when the West Coast Eagles gave Hawthorn a five-goal touch-up in the qualifying final.
And I’m the first to admit that you truly have to admire what Adam Simpson and his team have achieved this season, not too many apart from their faithful would have remotely considered they would end up where they will be next Saturday.
And it hasn’t been done with luck or great injury management or a favourable draw, they have been a consistent performer all year, have squatted inside the top two for much of it, and thoroughly deserve their place in the decider.
But this game won’t be played at Domain Stadium, and it will be against a team who won’t be ambushed this time around. A team which, despite some saying they are reaching the end of their run, still knows what it takes to win on the last Saturday in September – or in this instance the first Saturday in October.
It was interesting to note some of the comments that Hawks coach Alastair Clarkson had to say about the loss to the Eagles after they qualified for their fourth straight grand final.
“Our preparation for the game in terms of our tactics, the mindset of our playing group, that resilience that we demonstrated tonight, and demonstrated in the Adelaide final last week – for some reason, we didn’t have that in the West Coast game,” Clarkson said after they qualified for a shot at a three-peat with an emphatic win over Fremantle.
“It was slippery that night and we slipped, we had the wrong footwear. We just didn’t prepare for the shape of the oval very well. We did all those things a hell of a lot better this week.”
And now they are back in non-slippery conditions with the forecast for mid-20s, and on a ground they have called their own for the past few seasons.
The Hawks have won 29 of 36 matches played at the MCG since they lost the 2012 grand final to the Swans. In that same period they have also won all seven finals matches on the home of football.
But that’s not the only reason why they will win. It is more about the loss to the Eagles in the qualifying final being the loss they needed to have.
The interesting line from Clarkson was the one mentioning the “the mindset of our playing group”. I’m wondering if the Hawks players had started believing their own press, that despite not finishing top two, they would still head West, beat ‘the other’ Perth team, and take the next step to setting up a grand final showdown with the team from Perth most expected to be here, the Dockers.
Well, hasn’t that worked out well?
The Hawks know how to turn up on grand final day, and will terrorise any side that either has a little stage fright and is nervous, or one that doesn’t turn up from the opening bounce – just ask Sydney what happened last season.
Are the Hawks as good as they were last season? Well, midway through the year I would have said yes. Perhaps now I might say possibly not.
Are they – having won the past two flags – as hungry as the boys from Perth for a premiership? Maybe not? Maybe the appetite of the success starved Eagles playing group is greater.
Are Hawthorn, on their day, at their 2015 peak, the best team playing next Saturday? Yes.
That’s all I can go on right now, that both teams turn up at their best. And if that happens, not only will it be a great grand final, but it will be three premierships in succession for the Hawks.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
If the Eagles get a break before half time, they'll win If they're level at quarter time they'll win If they're level at 3/4 time they'll win The Hawks must get a lead early and hang on Naitanui is rested,Priddis is firing,Kennedy is the best forward in the game Hawthorn are the underdogs on revealed form
Penster
Guest
1990 - 2014, 18 interstate teams have played in the grand final, winning on 11 occasions (this includes 3 occasions where no Victorian side made the granny). Not a bad average given GWS & Suns were formed in 2012 & 2011 respectively, Port and Lions joined in 1997, and Freo in 1995. Interstate teams have defeated Victorian teams on 8 occasions, and been defeated by Victorian sides on 5 occasions. In other words, the odds are good! West Coast have had 12 home games this season but since the Darwin match on July 4th, have only left Perth twice (Gold Coast 1st July & Adelaide on 30th August). That's a good run in to finals. If there was a play off for feral supporters I think Freo have that in the bag.
Wilson
Roar Guru
"AFL giving them Tasmania" Wrong that was the work of Kennett and the Tasmania government. if the AFL had it way it want Hawks out of Tassie.
Dean
Guest
He has come close yet again. Very unlikely that he will ever get that honour now. What an excellent and consistent performer he has been over his career. Many Brownlow medalists have a few good years and that's it. I would take a Sam Mitchell over and Adam Cooney everyday of the week. Hopefully he can get himself into Hawks team of the century, he's won the teams best and fairest 5 times from my memory
justinr
Guest
My gut feeling is that the flag is there for the taking for West Coast, it seems to be a matter of whether they can hold their nerve, esp. if the Hawks get 20-odd points in front in the first half.
New York Hawk
Guest
Being able to read and type puts anyone in a position to bag Don.
jax
Guest
They are working the fans into a frenzy.
jax
Guest
We mean the same thing with junk-time, I think? I probably used the wrong term but I meant all of this - late in the season, tired after winning 8-9 games straight including a brutal travel patch with lots of 6d breaks and Tassie and Darwin trips, they knew they had some big games ahead, due a draw/loss etc. They weren't mentally switched on that day for whatever reason. Probably too many players thought they'd be pushovers is my guess. GC were very good, take nothing away from them. They wanted it. No WC didn't annihilate other finals teams like Hawthorn did but it's not very important IMO. Hawthorn is playing WC and some teams just match up well against each other. During the Lions 3-peat WC were rebuilding under Woosh and regularly beat them, even at the Gabba and on two occassions as I recall? Maybe the other teams fear you but we don't and we don't fear anyone in fact. We're just a young group committed to having a crack. You have been gracious with the compliments and honest with your analysis which is terrific to see. The Hawks are mighty unit and I acknowledge the challenges that lie ahead for WC are massive. We are the underdogs for sure. I'm not that parochial. Good luck on Saturday.
AB
Guest
Mitchell has overtaken both Harvey and Matthews. Now sits at number five on the all-time list. Only Gary Dempsey, Robert Harvey, Gary Ablett Jr and Chris Judd have received more votes over their careers. And if Mitchell has a reasonable season in 2016, he'll move to number two or three on that list. Remarkable. He's also now received more votes than any player in history who hasn't won a Brownlow.
Dean
Guest
Mans a genius. Literally dozens of incidents, not 12 but multiples of 12. Every second Hawks kick was less than 15 metres. He precisely measured it with his eye ball. Another butt hurt Freo supporter no doubt. Just upset Freo's premiership window has been slammed shut. That window slammed shut that hard the glass blew out. Hawks have caused Freo so much pain and suffering over the years, it's easy to understand the hate and jealousy.
AB
Guest
A 'slow motion analysis', hey? And what methodology did you use to measure the precise distance of each kick? Do you have grid lines on your telly?
Matt
Guest
yep, did a slow motion analysis of Hawk's kicks and there are dozens under 15m that get paid as marks. They also throw the ball a lot as well when being tackled.
mattyb
Guest
West coast travel every second week.West Coast finished higher than Hawthorn on the ladder but are travelling in their biggest game of the year,West Coast defeated Hawthorn in a previous final yet Hawthorn gets the home game.Yes,that's how it is,but it's arrogant to cry foul about travel.
AB
Guest
Yep, I think only Leigh Matthews and Boomer Harvey have received more career votes without winning a Brownlow. And the way he's polling tonight, Mitchell may overtake Matthews.
mattyb
Guest
The sons of the west but that doesn't mean west oz :)
andyl12
Guest
So who do you go for MattyB?
DeanM
Guest
Let's hope Sam Mitchell can win tonight's Brownlow. Unlikely but what a champion player. Will probably end up been the player with the most career votes to not win the honour.
DeanM
Guest
Can't blame Don for been the countries biggest Hawthorn hater. If you look at all of Fremantle history, any time they looked like maybe having hope of dusting out the cobwebs and putting a premiership cup in that empty cabinet the Hawks have stomped on their throat. So many bad memories that Don personally holds against the Hawks. He refuses to wear and clothes that are brown and or yellow.
AR
Guest
I honestly don't understand what you're on about. Hawthorn have played 3 games in 3 weeks, 2 of them in Perth. It includes about 8 hours of flying. WCE have played 2 game in 3 weeks - both at home. It's hardly Vic bias to point out that the above scenario favours WCE.
DeanM
Guest
That edge been giving Adelaide an absolute hiding in their biggest loss of the year or getting the lead and comfortably holding it against Fremantle before comfortably finishing the game?? And becoming the first Victorian team to win an away Preliminary final ever and against the seasons minor premiers?? Yeah I would probably assume the edge has been found.