Pool A in the 2015 Rugby World Cup has been called the ‘pool of death’ as it contains four teams in rugby’s top ten and three sides that could realistically win the tournament.
With a bunch of games already played in the pool, what is the situation and how will it play out?
There are four games left in Pool A. In Pool A, these teams have played twice and have the following points: Wales (9), Australia (9) and England (6).
If we assume that England beat Uruguay and gain a bonus point, they will go to 11 points.
Then, there are three remaining games: Wales versus Fiji, Australia versus England and Australia versus Wales.
We can look at each team separately to assess their possible outcomes.
Fiji and Uruguay
First things first, and Fiji and Uruguay have already lost two games and cannot make it out of the pool.
England
If Wales beat Fiji, then England must beat Australia to stay in. If they don’t they can only get to 13 points and – since Wales and Australia are already on 13 – neither team would lose in a tie-break qualification situation with England.
Then the winner of the Australia versus Wales game wins the group and the loser comes second.
If Wales beat Fiji and Australia, and England beat Australia, then Wales win the pool and England are second.
If Wales beat Fiji, England beat Australia and Australia beat Wales, then it becomes quite interesting.
England, Wales and Australia are on a minimum of 15, 13 and 13 points respectively. Bonus points then become crucial. England would be on 15-16, Australia on 13-16 and Wales on 13-16.
5.If Wales lose or draw to Fiji and England beat Australia, then England would go out if Wales beat Australia, but England would have a chances, depending on bonus points, if Australia beat Wales.
Wales
Regardless of the Wales versus Australia game, if Wales beat Fiji with a bonus point, then they are almost certainly through on 14. If England beat Australia (to 15 or 16 pts) then Australia beat Wales 5-0 (to 14 pts), Wales go out.
Regardless of the Wales versus Australia game, if Wales beat Fiji with 4 points, then they go through on 13 points if Australia beat England and England don’t get two bonus points from Australia.
If Wales beat Fiji with 4 bonus points and Australia beat England, then Wales go through.
If Wales beat Fiji with 4 bonus points and England beat Australia and Wales can get more bonus points in their two games, then they go through even if they lose to Australia.
If Wales lose to Fiji and Australia, then they can still go through with two or more bonus points and Australia beat England and receive bonus points.
Australia
If Wales beat Fiji, and Australia beat England, then the winner of the Australia versus Wales game wins the group and the loser comes second.
If Wales beat Fiji and Australia, and England beat Australia, then Wales win the Pool and England are second.
If Wales beat Fiji, England beat Australia and Australia beat Wales then it again becomes interesting. England, Wales and Australia are on a minimum of 15,13 and 13 points respectively.
Bonus points then become crucial. England would be on 15-16, Australia on 13-16 and Wales on 13-16 pts.
If Wales lose or draw to Fiji, England beat Australia and Wales beat Australia, then Australia go out.
Hello
Roar Rookie
Completely agree jaysper
jaysper
Roar Guru
When any tournament (soccer, rugby, whatever) has a "Pool of Death", almost invariably the result is an anticlimax whereby one of the teams tipped to battle it out for a coveted spot fails to fire and the pool of death looks more like a procession as the outcome becomes obvious early on. However, in this case there are just too many ways for the end result to be something totally different from what you might predict. I am picking Australia to top the pool with Wales 2nd, but at this reasonably late stage in the pools it is still possible for England to top the pool. What a completely AWESOME spectacle for world rugby, regardless of the outcome. It would seem a little unjust for the Welsh not to make it through given how much they have left out on the field, but then its not like the Poms and Ozzies are particularly undeserving of a place also.
Gavin Melville
Roar Pro
Thanks for just saying. Fiji can get to a maximum 10pts with a 5-0 win over Wales and a 5-0 win over Uruguay. My assumption is that England get to 11 points with a 5pt win over Uruguay. So Fiji can't catch England. Australia and Wales are on 9pts. They have to play. One of them wins (13pts) or they draw (both on 11pts) So Fiji can't catch both Australia and Wales. Fiji are out. I'll happily bet anyone, at good odds, that England get a bonus point win over Uruguay
taylorman
Roar Guru
Don't think Fiji are out mathematically. Should Fiji beat Wales with four tries and oz thrash both England and Wales it leaves Fiji, Wales and England on two losses each, meaning bonuses could come into it. Just saying...
Tissot Time
Guest
Come on Wales
Harry Jones
Expert
This weekend is going to be a cracker!
Rt
Guest
So if Wales or England or Australia win their final 2 games they top the pool. We should just do that I reckon. 17 points sounds good, 19 sounds better. Bugger it 19 sounds about right.