SPIRO: Sorry Wallabies, Wales can survive the short turnaround

Understanding what is going on in the minds of his players is as important for a coach as giving them the right tactics and selections to win a match.

Once again Warren Gatland has shown his awareness of this truth with his tough-love message before the Wales versus Fiji match on Friday morning (AEST).

“We got a massive high from Saturday,” he told the Welsh public, “but we cannot let that slip. The biggest challenge for us is mental rather than physical so I gave the players a rocket.

“I named the team but warned them that even though training will be a little shorter, we will be studying their intensity and GPS stats.”

Gatland will drop any of the selected players if he suspects that they have somehow accepted that a victory over Fiji is a done deal.

Complacency is a vice that tends to raise its placid head after an unexpected victory. It is the enemy of a strong, winning back-up performance.

Gatland, an honest, not-too-talented All Black in his playing days, comes from the New Zealand tradition of fearing and respecting every opposition, no matter how unlikely it is that they will offer a serious possibility of winning the contest.

The prospect of making the finals by clambering out, alive, from the pool of death is now very real and very close for Wales.

Wales have only to defeat Fiji with a bonus point and they are virtually assured of a place in the finals, even if England defeat the Wallabies on Sunday.

The Wallabies’ failure to gain a bonus point in their 28-13 win against Fiji could still come back to haunt them.

Wales have beaten England, supposedly their hardest match, and they thrashed Uruguay 54-9 with a bonus point, in all probability their easiest match.

On October 10 they finish their pool with a match against the Wallabies at Twickenham, with referee Craig Joubert officiating.

Wales have had a reasonably difficult draw. They played Uruguay on Sunday September 20, then backed up against England the following Saturday. England, having opened the tournament on Friday September 19 with a bonus-point, 35-11 victory over Fiji, had an extra day to prepare for this crucial contest.

Probably because the match against Uruguay was not too intense, Wales gained the momentum towards the end of the Test against England. The six-day turnaround, in this circumstance, provided more than enough time to allow for a superb fighting performance by Wales.

But now Wales have only a four-day turnaround before playing Fiji. Is this enough, after the physically and emotionally draining victory over England?

Before this tournament, Gatland put his squad through some excruciating training camps in Switzerland and Qatar. The rash of injuries has been attributed to the ferocity of these camps.

There may be something in this. In preparation for the 2007 World Cup, the All Blacks endured a similar sort of torture training regime. They, too, fell like shot ducks during the tournament.

Against this, though, Wales have asserted a momentum and energy towards the end of their matches so far. This was especially the case against England when, in the second half, Wales wiped out a 10-point lead.

Another plus for Wales is that they play Fiji at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff. Giving Wales the home ground advantage in this fixture is yet another example of the World Cup authorities putting the ker-ching! ker-ching! money principle ahead of fairness to Fiji.

Why should Fiji have to play Wales in Wales in a tournament hosted by England’s Rugby Football Union?

If some games in a tournament run by England have to be played at the Millennium Stadium, fairness suggests that Wales should not be one of the competing teams.

This is just one of the local difficulties that has been inflicted on Fiji in this tournament.

First they were given the dubious honour of opening the tournament against the hosts, England.

Fiji played as if they were overawed by the occasion, which was probably the intention behind the scheduling. They kicked away most of the ball their forwards won. They hardly ever challenged England with their backs. It was tame and submissive.

Then, only four days later, Fiji had to play the Wallabies at the Millennium Stadium. Fiji played their traditional, ball-in-hand style more so than against England, but they conceded too many points in the first hour of play. When they finally got into their stride towards the end of the game, they ran out of time to get tournament points.

The short turnaround, as it did with Japan when the Brave Blossoms caved in to Scotland in the second half of their match, proved too difficult for Fiji to manage against the Wallabies.

Now they play Wales with an 11-day break between games.

However, it must be said that despite the short turnaround against the Wallabies and the pressure of opening the tournament, Fiji have underperformed so far. If the team and coaching staff decide there is nothing to lose by throwing everything at Wales, rather like Japan taking on the Springboks, then they could create an upset.

I don’t think this is going to happen, though. Gatland has handled Wales’ short turnaround well. His players were given a couple of days off immediately after the victory over England, then they had short, sharp training sessions designed to retain a fitness edge but not over-train into exhaustion.

Finally, Gatland has ensured that complacency should not infect his team’s performance by telling his players he will drop any of them if they take a win against Fiji for granted.

Although Wales have had many injuries, most of them have been in the backs. Gatland has brought in three new backs – Matthew Morgan, Alex Cuthbert and Tyler Morgan – into the side to play Fiji. He retains Dan Biggar, the dead-eyed kicker whose nerveless penalty from halfway gave Wales their crucial and final lead over England. Biggar is the leading kicker in the tournament.

But it is the Welsh pack that has lifted the team from being everyone’s pick to be drowned in the pool of death to be, in all likelihood, one of the two survivors. And Gatland has picked that same pack that held and finally got on top of England to do the job against Fiji.

Many Roarers took exception with my argument that England’s defeat by Wales was a good thing for the Wallabies, but I still insist that this is the case.

The point is that everyone, including the bookies (who put their money where their mouth is), expected England to go through to the finals. If England lived up to this expectation by defeating Wales and the Wallabies, this meant that the Wallabies had to defeat Wales to get through.

But England’s loss to Wales has created opportunity to put them out of the tournament. Even if England defeat the Wallabies, they still have a loss on their record and the Wallabies, if they beat Wales, create the situation where all three leading teams have losses.

It then gets down to bonus points and who beats who in establishing the two finals-bound teams.

The Wallabies go into their match against England having scored 14 tries so far in the tournament.

Ireland – who have been quietly efficient and somewhat under the radar of speculation, rather like the Springboks in Rugby World Cup 2007 – have scored 13 tries.

The All Blacks, with their good win against the Pumas in one of the best rugby games in the tournament, and a scratchy, short-turnaround performance against Namibia, have scored 11 tries.

Scotland and the Springboks have scored 10. Their match at Newcastle, virtually home territory for Scotland, with the Welsh referee Nigel Owen officiating, will tell us a lot about both teams.

Are Scotland as good as they are looking with their cranky pack, complemented by clever and fast backs?

Are South Africa better than they looked against Japan? They certainly were impressive against Samoa, but Samoa let themselves down in their forward play, something Scotland is unlikely to do.

Getting back to the Wallabies, the loss to injury of Wycliff Palu and Will Skelton has actually improved the squad for this tournament.

To begin with, it has allowed Michael Cheika to clean up the glaring mistake of not selecting a third hooker by bringing James Hanson into the squad.

And with Skelton unavailable as a finisher on the reserves, there is the chance with a six-two split of bringing Sean McMahon into the 23-man squad against England.

Cheika could use Matt Giteau as his back-up halfback and Kurtley Beale as the reserve utility, and pick six forwards, with an entire reserve front row, Dean Mumm as a second rower, with Ben McCalman and McMahon – who has been the player of the tournament so far for the Wallabies – as his reserve loose forwards.

The point here is that England is extremely vulnerable to any pack that is quick around the field. Wales showed that. The Wallabies could keep the pressure on England’s rucks by sending in their aggressive, efficient loose forwards.

This overall quickness around the field by the Wallabies’ loose forwards should be a decisive factor in the Test against England – it was in Sydney when the Wallabies overran the All Blacks.

So Wales to beat Fiji, alas. And the Wallabies to beat England, great!