“Listen to this buddy, for it comes from a guy whose palms are still wet, whose throat is still dry and whose jaw is still agape from the utter shock of watching Joe Louis knock out Max Schmeling.”
American writer Bob Considine was writing his story from the ringside at Yankee Stadium in New York in the late 1930s and, of course, he was describing a world heavyweight title fight, not rugby.
As in rugby, boxing relies on power and skill. All brawn and no brains and you’re likely to end up on the deck.
You have to change with the times in all sports. What would have been good enough a few years ago may not bring success now. And that is something for Springboks coach Heyneke Meyer to ponder as his South African rugby warriors head for the World Cup knock-out stages.
Meyer appears to believe that the tactics which brought the Boks glory in 1995 and 2007 will be enough to lift the Webb Ellis Trophy again.
I doubt it. If you don’t believe me, ask Graham Henry, who coached the All Blacks to World Cup victory four years ago.
Writing for The Guardian, Henry said, “South Africa have recovered from losing to Japan but they appear back to their old ways, more brawn than skill, high in their carries (and tackles) and slow to get the ball away.”
Meyer and some South African critics see the defeat by Japan as ‘blip’ and that subsequent wins over Samoa and Scotland have put the Boks in the World Cup-winning frame again.
The coach turned a blind eye to why we lost against Japan and seems adamant that the Boks will overpower any opposition.
There is little subtle about Meyer’s game plan: kick for territory, use box-kicks, dominate the breakdown, employ the rolling maul, and bag points from penalties.
A great deal is talked about our physicality. We’re the tough guys on the block, and power, not guile, holds the key to victory.
The problem is that other coaches know how the Boks play and work out counters. Ireland coach Joe Schmidt, another Kiwi, did this when they beat us and Eddie Jones, Australia’s coach in the 2003 World Cup and now with Japan, came up with a plan which shocked the Boks in Brighton a few weeks ago.
All the teams in this year’s showpiece have tough guys. They also have gameplans, but the difference is that their tactics are flexible. As Henry noted recently, he had learnt to empower the players and allow the captain on the field to make decisions on how the team played during a match.
Meyer appears to think that his predetermined plan will pay off and that he is better placed to control matters from his box in the stand than the captain.
“The players wouldn’t listen to me,” he is said to have told a fan while wandering gloomily about Brighton after Japan’s sun set over South Africa.
No one knows why hooker Bismarck du Plessis was dropped from the team – and didn’t even get a seat on the bench – for the next game. However, talk on the rugby grapevine was that mutiny was in the air and several players, including Du Plessis, voiced their disapproval over Meyer’s tactics.
South Africa are on course to reach the quarter-finals and maybe go further, but the teams they will encounter will be far stronger, skilful and better prepared than most of our pool opponents.
It is one thing to kick the ball downfield to gain territory, but that plan opens the way for a counter-attack. Teams such as the All Blacks and the Wallabies simply run the ball back up the field and try to keep it in the tackle. That way they turn defence into attack and men such as the All Blacks’ Richie McCaw and Liam Messam and Australia’s David Pocock and Michael Hooper are hard to beat in the battle of the breakdown.
The Boks have the players to beat any team on the planet, however it’s how we play that matters. If Meyer insists on tactics like we used in 2007, we’re likely to bow out of the tournament earlier than hoped.
The Boks coach also believes that experience rather than form is vital for success. That is why he preferred Victor Matfield, big on experience but short of form, to Lood de Jager, who is one of the star players of the tournament, as a lock for his starting line-up in the game against Samoa. He also opted for captain Jean de Villiers at centre, another player beyond his best days.
Then injury struck. De Villiers broke his jaw again and had to be replaced in the squad, while Matfield suffered a strained hamstring.
That opened the way for de Jager at lock and Jesse Kriel at centre in the backline. Fourie du Preez took the captain’s armband and suddenly the Boks were a better side when they played Scotland.
Too much should not be seen into our defeat of Scotland, who fielded a second-string line-up, obviously aware they could lose to the Boks and still make the knockout stages by winning their last match against Samoa.
Du Preez, at scrumhalf, has an astute rugby brain and I hope Meyer allows him to use it. If he brings back the 38-year-old Matfield as captain and prefers him in a starting line-up to one of the other two locks, the Boks will be in trouble.
Matfield, like Meyer, is conservative in approach and I doubt he will go with the flow of the game if necessary.
Does South Africa have a KO punch, like Joe Louis, good enough to deck other top-tier teams? I doubt it. We will have to box clever, too, if we hope to win the World Cup again.
Sabine Schroeder
Guest
the 17th of this month is the witching hour, Andrew. If it`s Wales, as many expect it to be, you have a great record - 20 and 2. Except one of those two was last year at Millenium. If it`s Oz, Hooper and Folau will be back. Better to face Wales. You`ll win that encounter. Meyer saw what the Wallaby backs did to England. No way he won`t use them properly. BTW, Bob Considine was a Hearst man and as such was anathema to fair-minded folk.
RedsKing
Guest
Lood has played more than Matfield. Matfield stole the most against Samoa. No doubt Matfield is the one breaking down other opposition lineouts, and Eben and Lood are profiting from it. However, if Matfield continues his form that he showed in that Samoan game, then he is good enough to start.
splinter
Guest
Cood article AJ Meyer can not blame the players for executing his out dated game plan perhaps he is family of Buurman van Zyl 10 man rugby reminds me they are both from NTvL.
Vic
Guest
It's not just a flawed game plan, it's often the basics. JP know only one way of tackling - round the neck. The Scots try scorer could not be stopped because our tackling skills were poor. Jannie continues to lead shoulders first. We continue to bunch up in the midfield, we deny the backline any chance of scoring by continously kicking - how many times does the donkey need to smash its head into a brick wall before it learns?
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
World Cup stats of all teams show that Lood de Jager rates sixth best in line-out steals and Victor Matfield 13th. They both started in 2 games. In addition, de Jager runs like a youngster and Matfield like a 38-year-old.
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
Our backs need to run into space and not just charge into the tackle. Agreed, variation is key, but I doubt the Boks will do that. It will be the same old domination game.
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
Our forwards are no bigger than those of Australia, England and France. All have an average weight of 251 lbs per player. Eddie Jones did his homework and worked out a plan to beat the Boks.
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
Realistic not negative. We do have the players but not the game plan. Sticking to the same Plan A without a Plan B is not going in the right direction. Our pool record is not what we hoped for: defeat by Japan and wins over Samoa and a second-string Scotland. Of course we can beat any team on the day, but our predictable play could cost us dear.
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
Stats: damn lies, said Mark Twain. SA fans always talk about our bigger forwards. Stats from the UK Telegraph show that Australia, England, South Africa and France have the heaviest packs all at an average weight per player of 251 lbs. New Zealand, Ireland and Scotland are next with an average weight of 249 lbs. The business end will be at the breakdown and the arm wrestle for the ball when Bizzy and the boys battle the likes of Pocock and McCaw.
splinter
Guest
The article is not about how bad the Boks are it is about HM game plan you can not have these forwards working like trojans and then kick the ball in the hands of the full back you can not have SB as first receiver to predictable he must run off Pollard and yes we have to keep the ball in front of the forwards. This is our best team the team will not lose but the tactics or game plan can.
RedsKing
Guest
If Matfield can get back to his best (2007-2009) where he embarrassed opposition lineouts by taking their throw ins as his own, then it will go a long way in helping the Boks campaign. I like Matfield, but was annoyed at how lazy he had become at the lineout. His whole point of being on the field is for his lineout dominance. Yes, he still took his own lineouts with ease, but he was not attacking the oppositions throw ins. He upped his game immensely against Samoa though, I think I saw him steal 4 or 5 with Eben helping out too. If Matfield can continue with that form then the Boks kicking plan wouldn't be such a bad approach.
Suzy Poison
Guest
A typically negative article about Boks Andrew. Boks aren’t playing champagne rugby, by any means, but it would be good if you could perhaps bring yourself to recognise the Boks are moving in the right direction. My Kiwi and Aussie mates, have recognised that the Boks are still a dangerous side, especially in knock out mode. In fact as luck would have it Lood and De Allende are way better than the injured old crocks they have replaced. You have also cherry picked a negative view on a Kiwi site, there is a positive view on the same site, as a counter. http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/72687420/australias-domination-of-england-chariot-catapults-them-up-world-cup-power-rankings “2. South Africa (up one) Here come the Boks. South Africa's forward pack is beginning to rumble. Only a few short weeks ago Heyneke Meyer told his big men nobody respected them anymore. Meyer sure got the intended response. His young locks, Eben Etzebeth and Lood de Jager, who was man of the match in the 34-16 win over Scotland with 10 powerful carries and 16 tackles, set the tone and Schalk Burger is back to his best. Halfback Fourie du Preez, at 33 years old, is pulling the strings. His composure, option taking, control of tempo and box kicks paint him as the perfect puppeteer. Make no mistake, the Boks are back and right in this.” On top of that, if you look at the stats in WC so far, there is one man whose name sticks out. Go look at tackles made and carries over the gain line. Considering he almost died a while back, Schalk typifies the Bok spirit. Don’t be too quick to write off these guys just yet.
Hi Andrew, I think it is too late to expect the Springboks to change their tactic of kicking for territory, however I will point to three things that can make it effective within this world cup without having to change the plan in a sugnificant enough way to confuse the players. Kicking, kick for touch more, kick into space more with little grubbers and chip kicks. Vary the point of attack, Schalk Burger has shown how much of a link man he has become, the one pass channel is the biggest weakness in our attack, it is entirely predictable. Attack wider, against Scotland our attacking lines were too narrow,meven when the ball went wide we had our midfield so bunched up that even when De Allende did manage to draw more than one defender there was no space for Kriel, it also didn't really allow Willie much space to join the line. Other than that, allow the players to counter whenver they see space, regardless of where the field position is.
Paul Kruger
Roar Pro
Heckuva read andrew some great points you made. Personally, I don't have a problem with the "maak sag voor" (soften up front) style of play- as long as you have the personnel to back it up. At the moment our forwards are well equipped to succeed on that front. However, I'd like to see the backs get a bit more time with the ball. The few occasions when we ran it against Scotland and put the ball through hands we looked dangerous. We just need the ability to switch that on when the time is right. We looked a bit vulnerable when defending counter attacks - the backs need to put the same physical effort in made by the heavies. As for the Japan loss- I'm not convinced it had anything to do with tactics. Our guys were not in that game and thought it was in the bag. The japanese played beautifully. I think it was a matter of too many old timers just going through the motions - just look at jp and habana playing with a new lease on life. Wouldnt be surprised if meyer told those guys their tickets were up.
Stray Gator
Roar Rookie
Great writing, Andrew, really excellent. Fascinating to see whether the Boks will (or can) adapt their style to account for the smarter teams who they actually respect (Japan was much smarter, but apparently didn't warrant respect), or whether Meyer even believes they need to bother. Such an enigma, South African rugby.
Harry Jones
Expert
Thanks for the excellent piece, AJ. Only IRE (122 kicks) is using the kick-chase more than SA (114), and with fellow kick-chasers ENG, GEORGIA, FIJI, and ITALY departing the tournament soon, only IRE and SA will be left as the teams using that style. The other way to look at is that Willie le Roux has yet to launch a counter-attack (he was not in the squad for the Brighton loss) but hasn't needed to, because neither Samoa or Scotland could find a way through SA's defensive line and therefore, the smartest thing to do until SA reached the red zone was to kick-chase-tackle. Pollard is certainly taking it to the line when he or FdP aren't kicking--and has beaten more defenders than any other 10 as AS many as Damian de Allende, giving SA a great one-two punch at 10-12. In fact, SA has beaten more defenders with ball in hand than anyone except NZ (85 vs 84). The other RC teams, OZ and ARG, are also good at this. The dry fields of RC and Super Rugby encourages defender-beating runners, whether with pace, power, or stepping. The price of this is energy. Chasing kicks and carrying into traffic takes a lot out of a team. SA and NZ are using a carry-heavy style (SA 417, NZ 412) with SA using heavy forwards (Burger 47 carries, Lood 29, Eben 26, Louw 26) and NZ using backs (Ben Smith 34, Savea 34, SBW 32). The other thing about carrying a lot of ball is it can cost you penalties. SA has been pinged 38 times, tied with France for the most among the heavyweights. Bismarck was dropped for conceding 4 penalties at Brighton (and being the chief rebel in the changeroom); notice how he conceded none at Newcastle? Jannie continues to cost SA in this regard, and I don't know how Meyer can justify his continued selection with the bad knee, bad attitude, and bad tackling, when Frans Malherbe has shown he is ready to anchor the scrum. The good news is the Boks are missing very few tackles. Only NZ and IRE have missed fewer. Another thing to watch is the weather. It'll be colder at QF time. Maybe 7-10 degrees. Wet. A drop-kicking flyhalf in that weather can win a RWC.