2015 Caulfield Guineas: Can Press Statement win from barrier 14?

Shooooooosh , Ron !! E/W all day !

Bookies lay favourites,and one of the reasons for that is every jockey riding in the race knows who the favourite is and where he is in the run.That is the advantage every other runner has.

Nothing is impossible in racing that's for sure. However that being said, a statistical fact worth noting is: No horse has won the Caulfield Guineas from a barrier wider than 13 since Drawn claimed victory from barrier 17 in 1985.

Totally concur razzor, he is definitely the horse to beat however his odds of $2.50 is poison and couldn't touch that considering it's his first time racing the other way, although granted Waller would have trained him going both ways so it shouldn't pose a problem but under race pressure it's a totally different ball game. The other fact is his barrier drawn out in 14 will make it allot harder. I'm almost certain he will be on the speed, I have him going hard early to then slot in one out, one back or one out two or three back at the very most - if he is able to slot into this position early without burning to much petrol to get there early then he will be extremely hard to beat.

I watched the Danehill Stakes & Caulfield Guineas Prelude races over and over. The Colt by High Chaparral named Last Bullet who has won a Group 3 as a two year old over 1200 meters along with another race in Adelaide over 1200 meters. The only progeny by High Chaparral to win at 1200 meters was Shoot Out who went on to win 5 group 1's. This colt Last Bullet looks like he could be the next superstar once he gets over ground. If you watch his race in the Danhill he got heavily sandwiched and had to be pulled up, however he still made up ground late without being touched because the race was well and truly over. In the Caulfield Guineas Prelude Last Bullet was literally last and about 12 lengths from the front with 200 meters to go, however his last 100 meters he flew home finishing only 1.75 lengths from the eventual winner in (Bon Aurum) As he was making up all this ground in the last 100 meters he was also being forced to run wide due to Ready For Victory pushing him wide, this alone would have cost him at least 2 lengths, so if he had the chance of going straight he may have won the Prelude. Last Bullet sectionals were phenomenal, he ran the 2nd quickest 600 meters, also the 2nd quickest 400 meters and the fastest 200 meters. I really liked what I seen with this young colt by the mighty High Chaparral. If he has the opportunity to position himself in the first half of the field early in the Caulfield Guineas he has the potential to finish of very strong down the outside to win this. My only reservation is whether or not 1600 meters will be to short for him. One thing is for certain, once he gets over more ground such as 2000 meters plus, this colt could be anything. At $21 he is way over the odds for mine and exceptional value.

Press statement can win. But is he a 5/4 chance? A 45% chance of winning the Guiness. Settles back at the Heath, possible traffic issues. Pace may determine his fate. Looks okay tempo,but hoops arnt silly if its all about having something late, those up front can control tempo. 5/4 is a crazy price to take. More like 7/4 for the Sydney visitor...for mine.

Really good question Tristan. From inside 7 maybe, just maybe, his odds are warranted but to draw that gate, at this distance, on this track with the speed all over the place. needs plenty of beard stroking while studying the racemap before deciding on an answer.

Lonhro, God's Own and Whobegotyou all won from wider barriers so it isn't impossible, especially if there is a class edge. Not sure Pierro had enough of one on All Too Hard who was pretty good on left handed tracks. Denman couldn't see out a mile from memory.

After the barrier draw I like Dal Cielo, his last effort reminded me of Shamus Award, but what exactly has Bon Aurum done to be double-figure odds?