In what was a grand final to forget for many West Coast players, there may be an upside to their 46-point loss to Hawthorn.
In fact, all things considered, the future looks particularly rosy for the Eagles.
They’re young, have now experienced the heat of a grand final, and are set to welcome back their 2014 best and fairest winner – Eric Mackenzie – after an injury derailed his 2015 campaign.
Here are five reasons Eagles fans should continue to show the faith in 2016.
1. The age factor
The average age of the Eagles team that played in the grand final was 25 years and six months old, almost two years younger that the squad Hawthorn fielded.
What’s more, the Eagles only had one player – Matthew Priddis – who was over 30. Hawthorn, on the other hand, had six players – Sam Mitchell, Luke Hodge, Josh Gibson, Shuan Burgoyne, David Hale and Brian Lake – who were into their fourth decade.
Intrinsically, what this means for the Eagles is that they now have a core group of players capable of creating a three-year window or more where they can dominate the competition without fear of retirement from several key players.
Elliot Yeo (22), Jeremy McGovern (23), Dom Sheed (20), Jack Darling (23) and Andrew Gaff (23) all have their best football ahead of them.
2. The grand final experience factor
Some Eagles, such as Darling and Josh Kennedy, played their worst game of the season in the grand final. Darling’s dropped mark in the third quarter – likened to Herschelle Gibbs’ dropped catch in the 1999 Cricket World Cup – swung the momentum of the game back in the Hawks’ favour when the Eagles were only just gaining the ascendancy.
Yet, for all the disappointment that mark would have caused Darling, he will be better for the experience. So, too, the goalless Kennedy.
Several Hawks playing in their first grand final in 2012 – such as Jack Gunston and Paul Puopolo – were overawed by the experience, but have since gone on to play pivotal roles in the Hawks’ past three premierships.
3. The Simpson factor
Adam Simpson was unlucky not to be anointed Coach of the Year after lifting the Eagles from ninth in 2014 to a grand final appearance a year later, in what was only his second year as a senior coach.
A protégé of the insurmountable Alastair Clarkson, Simpson will learn from the grand final loss just like his players. Only two weeks prior to the grand final loss, the Eagles bullied Hawthorn into submission, defeating the eventual premiers by 32 points. That alone should instil Simpson with the confidence that his team is on the right track to a premiership.
4. The injured players factor
Let’s not forget that the Eagles’ 2014 best and fairest, Mackenzie, was not only watching the grand final from the stands, but had also been out of action for the entirety of 2015 after tearing his ACL in a pre-season match. Fellow defender Mitch Brown was also out injured for the majority of the season.
While the Eagles covered for these losses well, there’s no question that they will benefit from the addition of some experience in defence next season. Mackenzie, in particular, will add class to the Eagles’ defence – not that it was lacking this year.
The combination of McGovern and Mackenzie in the backline should be a tantalising prospect for West Coast supporters.
5. Hawthorn has to fade at some point factor
Perhaps this is more of a hope. But sometimes you have to hope.
It seems ridiculous writing the Hawks off on age alone, but some of the players integral to their success are on the wrong side of 30, two of whom – Lake and Hale – have since retired after last Saturday’s grand final.
The last team to win three premierships in a row – Brisbane from 2001-2003 – made the grand final again in 2004, but were beaten by Port Adelaide. The next season they plummeted spectacularly and finished in 11th position.
The drop off surely won’t be as steep for the Hawks, but they will have to drop at some stage in the foreseeable future.
If Simpson and his team can harness their grand final disappointment and capitalise on their youth, it’s very possible that they can create some kind of football dynasty.
Fear not, Eagles fans. The future looks bright.
diamond jack
Guest
theres no guarantee on anything of course..they might, if fortunate get to a GF again to meet the hawks and may put on the show that was expected, and lose by a slimmer margin. but let me say this, they didnt get there by any mistake, they finished 2nd because they beat enough teams to earn that right, including some teams above them previously-freo ,tigers, roos, hawks, crows, swans. injuries may again take its toll. but they simply have so much depth and talent they should cope like this season gone. but i acknowlwedge all other teams are giving just as much to be there and improving and trading and drafting, but the eagles have arrived to take this further, just in or on the ledge of that golden window, along with maybe 4 other teams, to take on the hawks who may slide or may also improve and have to be bettered. eagles will be up there again. know thy club! no time for dreaming. (;
diamond jack
Guest
exactly..we're now having trouble keeping them, which is better than losing players because they see no future in a losing side, these guys see no future in a winning side, too tough to get a game. there goes brant colledge.
diamond jack
Guest
thats just not true, many Gf winners were the losers the season before, or peppered the deep finals over 3-4 yrs. eagles have done exactly that in around the 91-94 time and again around 2004-2007.
andyl12
Guest
They didn't make the top 4. North did.
David
Guest
They should make the 8 but will slide a bit along with the doggies because of a tougher draw. Adelaide will also slide a little. Port and Geelong will improve along with GWS and Gold Coast.
Maggie
Guest
Well actually at the beginning of the season you were using this unsophisticated analysis to confidently assert that, based on the 2014 grand final result, the Swans wouldn't make the top four in 2015. You were wrong right there. So perhaps it is you who should be making the admission of error.
andyl12
Guest
So Maggie, are you implying that this is all a coincidence and that a GF losing margin has nothing to do with how that team performs afterwards? It's a bit like saying that Prime Minister's opinion polls are not the reason why they get booted out of the job. Yes, I did post these stats a year ago and so many people on this website insisted I was wrong and that Sydney would fight back to win the 2015 flag. Those same people are now making excuses for their false predicament, such as blaming it all on Buddy's "injury"- never mind that Buddy's current issues are at least partially the result of him being at a club that doesn't handle player issues as well as Hawthorn does. I will stop posting predictions on here when they have been proven wrong. But until then it's other people's jobs to admit they were wrong and that they might be wrong again.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
This article does have the hopefulness factor built in,but the analogy of the New York Yankees in the 50s and 60s comes to mind.They were the best team by far during that period, but opposition teams took their best players on to the park to gauge how well they were going, despite knowing that there wasn't much chance of winning. If the Hawks are the yardstick, so be it, but every other team is putting everything they can into getting better. I'll bet everyone can name the teams that beat Hawthorn this year and all the coaches have squeezed that lemon dry Thanks Sarah for your thoughts this year I want to see Corey Adamson play next year and Cavca and Nelson
YearoftheEagle
Guest
Every other team will hope Hawthorn slides too as none are anywhere near them atm.
jax
Guest
I get it now. WC lost by 6 more points than 40 and North lost by 5 less than 40. Thank you making the call that 40 should be the accepted number,
Ben
Guest
Eagles 05 lost by 4 points and won in 06
Maggie
Guest
Andy, you've been banging on with this ultra-simplistic thesis all season, time to give it a rest I think. In my very first statistics tutorial many years ago we were given an exercise to help us understand correlation and causality. The data we were given over a 10 year period showed that the birth rate in Holland spiked every year during the month that storks flew over on their annual migration. Your use of one-dimensional information to 'prove' your thesis is a similar exercise.
Paul D
Roar Guru
So in summary they've got a young list, now have grand final experience, will get some players back from injury, have a good coach, and they can cross their fingers and hope Hawthorn start to slide. Incredibly insightful stuff.
gameofmarks
Roar Guru
Please no, not Jetta....he is a front runner.
The Oven
Guest
Hahahaha, you can't use the swans, there's only been one season since 2014 and if they actually had didn't carry injured player (Reid, Franklin, Parker, Jack, etc.) in to the semi they may well have been in a prelim.
johno
Guest
Geelong 1995 - they had played 4 grand finals in the past 6 years. Their team had aged significantly with stars nearing the end of their careers like Ablett, Brownless, Bairstow etc Sydney 1996 - from bottom 5 to grand final on the back of some aging stars in Lockett, Kickett, Kelly Brisbane 2004 - aging stars again in Lynch, Voss, Akermanis, White, Keating, Michael, Johnson, Chris and Brad Scott Saints 2010 - Lost their coach at the end of 2011 and have since lost Dal Santo, Hayes, Gardiner, Goddard, Kossi, Blake Almost each instance teams have had their best players in the later stages of their careers. In the Saints case they lost one of the best coaches in the comp The teams mentioned above were also at the end of a period of sustained success, you can add Collingwood 2003 as well as they played 2 successive GF's. Buckleys influence started to wane but frankly I am amazed a team with Richard Cole, Jason Cloke, Bodie Holland, and Lonie actually made a GF Melbourne in 2000, Port 2007 and Sydney in 1996 are unusual cases of teams coming from the bottom 5 to play in a GF the next year. No wonder they copped a beating!
andyl12
Guest
I chose the last 20 years because it was a nice round number and I thought going back further would be taking us into an irrelevant era- especially as there was no 16-team competition before 1995. The 80s were a different era where most clubs were bankrupt and the few who weren't had an easy time getting back up the following year. And I don't know why you've included the 1998 North side- last time I checked 35 was less than 40. I could actually bring out more stats to support my argument. Chiefly, that in the last 20 years most teams who've lost a GF by less than 40 points have in fact recovered to reach the prelim in a short time. The fact that so many 40+point losers fall away for a while and the fact that most teams don't is clearly more than a coincidence.
johno
Guest
# 6 Jetta and Redden # 7 Lamb, Duggan and Barrass # 8 Trade value of Scott Selwood Anyone who thinks the Eagles are going to miss finals over the next 5 years is deluded. The biggest issue will be getting games into the young players and keeping them.
jax
Guest
You've cherry picked the GF's. Here are some that you overlooked. 1975 - Hawks lost by 55 points and won the flag in 1976 1983 - Bombers lost by 83 points and won the flag in 1984 1986 - Carlton lost by 42 points and won the flag in 1987 1991 - Eagles lost by 53 points and won the flag in 1992 1993 - Blues lost 44 points and won in 1995 1998 - North lost by 35 points and won in 1999 If you're going to use stats use them all to avoid misleading readers. It could be viewed as a one-eyed agenda otherwise. You've added nothing of value or given us any insight into the future.
andyl12
Guest
Eight reasons why they can't bounce back are the eight other teams who've lost Grand Finals by 40+ points in the last 20 years, none of whom even reached a prelim for at least another four years: *Geelong in 1995- didn’t win a final for another 9 years. *Sydney in 1996- didn’t reach a prelim for another 7 years. *Melbourne in 2000- haven’t reached a prelim since. *Collingwood in 2003- a quicker recovery than some, but finished bottom-4 in 2004-5 and didn’t reach another GF until 2010. *Brisbane in 2004- have only reached the finals once since. *Port Adelaide in 2007- didn’t reach the finals for another 6 years. *St Kilda in 2010- have only played one finals match since. *Sydney in 2014- have been on the wane since, have playing list problems and off-field problems that won't be fixed in a hurry. The message is simple- get smashed in a GF and your mental strength gets smashed with it. For West Coast to even get close next year would be a much greater achievement than many realise.