Who your club should and shouldn’t let go in 2016 (Part I)

Yeah Swans comments are pretty weird. Why shut off any chance of getting a deal. I'd be reasonably comfortable with pick 27 - I think in the long term it will be shown to be well unders but for where things are at right now I would say its about right, and if the blues can turn it into a few of the GWS boys being talked about then all the better. I don't think Brisbane should expect too much more given they risk losing Aish for nothing and what they gave up for Christensen.

Collingwood's second round pick is 26, and will probably end up as pick 27. I think that is probably fair value for Bell, but unders for Aish. We'd want something else back from Collingwood, I'd think. Given Swann's comments I think it'd be difficult to accept that deal. I suppose you could spin it as being the compassionate thing to do given Bell's circumstances, but it'd still be pretty embarrassing.

That is a concern Jamie but the problem the Lions have is that Aish is out of contract and Bell is in contract - they can get Bell for him or they can get nothing for him - there is nothing in it for the blues to sweeten the pot, especially as Carlton could take Aish in the PSD.

I'm happy with that. But my concern was mainly the Lions not wanting to let Aish go, and the extra pick and Bell would be hard to knock back.

See above. And remember Bell finished 4th in the blues best and fairest and still has some upside and Aish played just 11 games for the year. Also Bell averaged 50% more possessions, 4 times the goals, 50% more tackles, 4 times the inside 50's, double the marks and double the clearances - I think Bell is at least worth what Aish is.

Jamie - I think Bell is worth a pick in the mid 20's, TomC (a Brisbane Supporter) has him worth ". I’d say a pick in the late 20s would be fair value, although maybe that’s unders if the draft really is that poor" and PaulD (another Brisbane Supporter says "Bell/Aish straight swap?" so the blues shouldn't need to throw in pick 40, jus t have Aish to Collingwood, Pick 24 to the blues and Bell to Brisbane.

Saw this after posted comment above. You really think Bell is worth a 2nd round pick? Cos without the 3rd round thrown in that is what it would amount to.

TomC/ PAulD - what do you think of a modification of Jamie's trade below - Aish to Collingwood, Collingwoods pick 24 to Carlton, Bell to Brisbane?

I disagree Macca. Bell worth somewhere between a 2nd and 3rd round pick don't you think? If that is the case then the deal is fair for all concerned.

I would say if you dropped off the 3rd round pick that would go pretty close to keeping everyone happy.

Jamie - So Carlton lose Bell and their 3rd round pick (somewhere around 40) which they will be hoping to use to get Bailey Rice for just pick 24 - the blues lose out on that deal big time.

I've thought about writing an article on Essendon about this Paul, and how they have gone about getting their last three coaches. Pick 5 for Carlisle is ridiculous. I hear people go on about how good he could be, but all I've seen is some glimpses once or twice a month, and a bad attitude. Personally if my club offered anything more than a second round pick for him I'd be pretty annoyed. On the coaches thing, three times coaches have gone through the rigmarole without any chance of landing the job, because they had already made their minds up. Then there is how they initially contacted Worsfold behind the Crows' backs despite promising not to. If they aren't already, they are quickly becoming the most hated club in the AFL. On Bell, as a Lion's supporter what do you think of Bell and Carlton's 3rd round pick going to Brisbane, James Aish to Collingwood, and Pies second pick goes to Carlton. Lions get Bell and 3rd round pick, Collingwood get Aish, and Carlton get pick 24.

Oh and Rookie Listing Jons is a good idea but doesn't work if we don't get another key forward in - unless Foster takes a big step forward over summer or we just go with Walker, Everitt, Menzel, Lamb, Smith & Casboult

I'd be happy if the Pies did a straight swap: Seedsman for Aish or Henderson. All three blokes could do a lot better in a new environment.

Col - I would say Warnock is definitely gone if we get Phillips and most likely gone anyway, they are just waiting to see if they can get anything for him rather than delist. If we go by your list though with Weitering going 1, lets says we get Walker and a third round pick for Henderson and Aish for Bell (as I can't see Brisbane having picks to satisfy) and pick 15 for Yarran which we give up for the 4 GWS players and then we use our third and 4th round pick for Silvagni and Rice that still leaves our second round pick and the third rounder we got for Henderson to use before we even get to 4th of 5th rounds and 2 players to move on to get to use them. This to me would indicate the blues would be chasing a higher draft pick from Geelong rather than Walker and a later draft pick and they may not go for all 4 from GWS (Could they Rookie llst Phillips via the trade?)

Macca, looking at who has gone (Judd, Carrazzo, Ellard, Gilles, Watson, Henderson as definite and Yarran and Bell as probables, we have eight vacancies on the list. The players mentioned as possible pickups are Weitering, Sumner, Plowman, Lamb, Philips, Walker, Rice and Silvagni, which is eight possible ins. We obviously need to shed at least one more player off the list to allow us a first pick in the PSD. The obvious one for me if we get Philips is Warnock. Given that we have pick 1 and pick 20 (at this stage) then third, fourth rounds etc and will get picks for Henderson (likely second round), Yarran (possible first round if Hawks are interested) and Bell (possibly third round) we could have 2 first round picks and 2 second round picks and 2 third round picks. Pick 1 is for Weitering, talk is that a late first round or early second will satisfy GWS for their 4 players. If Rice nominates us I would say we should get him for third round pick and Silvagni a fourth or fifth. So we could still be left with a first or second round pick and a third round pick. By my reckoning we probably still need to cut a couple of more players and maybe re-draft as rookies. There is talk that a loop hole could allow us to de-list Jones and re-draft as a rookie and therefore his TPP is outside the salary cap unless we up grade him later on. Any thoughts?

Paul D - if the bombers keep that attitiude up St Kilda will get him in the pre-season draft for nothing.

TomC - As I said to PaulD I wasn't using Rockliff as an equal, just as a pint of reference for what Bell achieved. If you look at Bells best performances this year they are 28 touches, 8 marks 0 goals 3 behinds against Sydney with the Blues missing Gibbs, Murphy & Judd, 32 touches, 6 marks and 0.2 against the Suns and 27 touches 9 marks against Hawthorn (arguably you could throw in 4 goals against the saints 22, touches 6 marks and 7 tackles against Freo or his 10 tackles against Melbourne but I'll leave them out) he doesn't need to improve on his best (particualrly when you look at the sides he palyed well against), just perform at his best more often which is usually what happens when you get past 50 games and get to 25 which is what Bell is - throw in him being happier at home and he should take another step next year. The more interesting point is that he doesn't fill an obvious need which I agree with (but he does want to be in Brisbane which is more than you can say for a lot of your list) which is why the Aish Bell swap makes sense but anything else is hard to see happening.

I think Bell can grow a bit more and become a valuable player for whichever team he plays for. I would like to see him stay a Blue but he will do what he feels is best. Aish would be a bonus for the Blues but if he wants to go to the pies, should Carlton take him? Casboult won't go anywhere, the Blues need him right now and another big key forward to help him. I think the Pies are on the way down, at least the Blues can only go up from here. I really hope the Blues take a few chances and play the up and coming youngsters next year. We know they won't be in the top eight so why not take a year to get game time into them. I will watch the trade period with interest as there will be some significant pick ups for a few clubs this year.

I've always thought that rep was overstated. They did reasonable deals for Gumbleton, Crameri and Monfries.