The Cox Plate has arrived, and what a genuine weight-for-age championship it is going to be this year. The likes of Pinker Pinker and Shamus Award wouldn’t even get a run in this edition, let alone be winning the race.
As is ever the growing case with our big races now, there is very much an international flavour too, with three overseas visitors.
The raiders took home their first Cox Plate last year through Adelaide and Ryan Moore’s masterful ride – can they do it again with three representatives, or will the locals be able to keep them at bay?
It’s a wonderfully even betting race, but Highland Reel is the current market-elect, about half a point above the each-way cut. Punters have zeroed in on him thanks to the same trainer/jockey combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore that delivered success to Adelaide last year, and a friendly barrier giving him every chance at the run of the race.
Adelaide won the Group 1 Secretariat Stakes in the US on the way to his Cox Plate, and Highland Reel won the same race in even more dominant style this time around. The trainer has an even higher opinion of him too. It all adds up to a horse that’s going to be hard to beat.
The only mare in the race, Winx, currently occupies the second line of betting, and has really come into her own this prep, even though it’s only been a short one, carrying residual fitness over from her dominant Brisbane form.
Despite looking in a bit of trouble at the top of the straight in the Epsom, she put them away with the authority of a horse that has special qualities. The form out of that race has been tested a few times, and found wanting so far, but her victory was impressive enough to say she’s a player here.
Criterion put together back-to-back Australian victories in the Caulfield Stakes last start, following on from his Queen Elizabeth win back in April. In between times, he turned out in Hong Kong and England, giving a decent account of himself without threatening to win.
The Caulfield Stakes was set up for the four horses that settled in the back half of the field, of which Criterion was one, but we’ve already seen Mongolian Khan come out of the race to claim the Caulfield Cup. The race was strong, and the form out of it should be too.
Criterion also beat Happy Trails, Kermadec, Fawkner and Pornichet in that race.
Happy Trails is the Cox Plate perennial, having run second two years ago, and a 0.7 length sixth last year, beating home Criterion. Give him an extra length to spread over the two races and he’s a dual Cox Plate winner right now.
He’s been tracking as well as ever this prep, without luck, and we saw what he was capable of last start. Happy Trails is the Fields of Omagh of his era, and it might just be his time to pull a “FOO” and claim victory swooping around them all. At the very least he’s over the odds.
Fawkner was also in last year’s Cox Plate, running a brave second, only being nailed in the shadows of the post.
His run in the Caulfield Stakes was so uncharacteristically poor that we can disregard it, and forgive him. He’ll appreciate the cushier Moonee Valley surface, but has drawn awkwardly in the widest barrier. Damien Oliver will have some decisions to make in the first couple of furlongs.
We know Fawkner is tough and honest, and we can count on him to bounce back and be thereabouts.
Kermadec was the disappointment of the run-on horses in the Caulfield Stakes, and while by no means did he run poorly, he couldn’t make an impression on the first three home once in the straight, despite having every chance to do so.
It’s not the sort of run I could back him to win a Cox Plate, given he’s meeting Criterion and Happy Trails again, and then some. But given his quality, I can’t rule him out either.
Pornichet was another to flop badly in the Caulfield Stakes, but I’m also happy to forgive him based on how badly Fawkner and Entirely Platinum faded too, horses that had been, like Pornichet, racing honestly up until that point.
If you look at how little was between he and Kermadec in the George Main over 1600 metres two starts back, and you can make the case that 2040 metre will suit Pornichet better, he’s at a big price. He’ll be forward, and looking to settle handy to the speed, perhaps in fourth or fifth.
Preferment was such an impressive winner of the Turnbull Stakes, following an amazing win in the Hill Stakes, yet he seems to have been forgotten in Cox Plate markets.
The Turnbull form has been a little mixed, with Royal Descent and Set Square failing badly in the Caulfield Cup, but they had their reasons. We’ve seen Amralah win out of the race, Dandino almost win the Geelong Cup, Happy Trails run second in a strong WFA race, and Gust of Wind and Who Shot Thebarman run extremely well in the Caulfield Cup.
The thinking seems to be that he’s a more natural stayer looking for further, and that the Melbourne Cup might be more his race. I wouldn’t be selling him so short, and you can watch for him charging late if the race pans out for him. If he doesn’t get there, he won’t be missing by much.
Hartnell also comes from the Turnbull Stakes, and really hit his straps late after settling at the rear instead of racing near the speed as usual. It was a lovely run, and he can make his presence felt, like almost all of these will!
The Underwood Stakes is the other key Melbourne form reference, supplying The Cleaner and Mourinho. These two battle-axes have already met three times this campaign, with a 2-1 lead to Mourinho, but The Cleaner’s victory was here at the Valley.
Both are Moonee Valley track specialists, with five wins apiece. Mourinho has claimed lofty scalps like Happy Trails and Fawkner in winning WFA races this year, so must be taken seriously, even though he won’t be. When he’s right, he’s a bloody good horse.
The Cleaner has slowed down tactically this campaign, and it hasn’t been to his detriment. He’s racing better than ever, still attempting to lead all the way, but staying in races longer when not winning them. I’m not sure I love him four weeks into a Cox Plate from his last start, but I hope he gives his fans an almighty shout once more. He’s so great for racing.
Complacent comes down from Sydney, like Winx, but through a different formline. He did beat Kermadec in winning the Chelmsford and only finished a length off Preferment and Magic Hurricane in the Hill Stakes. That’s solid Group 1 form right there, but there’s no room for him in my top six or eight.
The two remaining runners are the other two internationals, Arod and Gailo Chop.
Arod is the better credentialed and more highly fancied of the two, having put together a stellar five-run 2015, taking on Europe’s best for two wins and three placings. He’s never saluted in a Group 1, while running some great races, but all his best form has been around genuine Group 1 horses.
Gailo Chop isn’t as well regarded, but has strong form all the same, albeit he appears to be a much more dominant horse on wet going. He finished a couple of lengths behind Criterion in the Prince of Wales at Ascot, but also has a second to Solow on his resume this year, just like Arod.
For the uninitiated, Solow is arguably the best horse in the world right now, having won five Group 1 races in a row in 2015, travelling through France, Dubai and England. His current picket fence stands at nine, and he’s only been beaten once in his last 13 starts dating back to June 2013.
The point is, Arod and Gailo Chop have claims. Neither of them are just here for show. Like the other visitor, Highland Reel, they are also go-forward horses, so the race promises plenty of speed, particularly if any of them don’t settle in behind The Cleaner and want to take him on.
Mourinho is usually right up there too, but might have to settle just forward of midfield if Vlad Duric can slot him across from barrier 12. Pornichet has drawn 11 but can race comfortably anywhere in the forward half.
The Cox Plate is such a special race, and really anything can happen. These are 14 high-quality horses, all deserving of their place, and all in form, particularly if we’re willing to forgive Fawkner and Pornichet last start.
Internationals. Locals. Melbourne. Sydney. Proven veterans and untapped horses on the rise. Speed horses and swoopers. And then you add the vagaries of Moonee Valley into the mix.
It’s going to be a race to remember.
Selections
1. Preferment
2. Highland Reel
3. Happy Trails
4. Criterion
Garantiaa Taylor
Guest
If I have the first big 6 on the mine race at cox plate and I only put $ 5 dollars on it how much money would I get back ???
andrew
Guest
and today you won. well played. or atleast you right in not only potting the fave, but more forming the view it was unders, hopefully you managed to lay it or atleast work something constructive around it. i didnt like lucky paddy either, it was actually a good win 3 WNC this trip
Razzar
Guest
I understand that it's WFA Andrew, but the 7/4 I rate is the price where I rate it worth backing. I' m actually giving Lucky Hussler a 37 per cent chance of winning the race. It's all about win some lose some. Last night I rated Lucky Paddy a 5/1 chance. It won at 2/1. Unders for mine, No Bet. Geelong cup I rated Almoonqth an 11/2 chance. It wins. Win some, lose some. ?
Bondy
Guest
Interesting I note bookmakers are doing a exotic bet of The Cleaner top 5 finish at $ 4.00 , this suggests to me that bookmakers aren't stupid and they believe like most smart punters he'll be run over with 150 mtrs to go and not make a top 5 finish where that bet type suggests a prediction that 5-6 horses will be across the track on the line . I'll be backing something (anything) that's around 13-2 - 7-1 $ 7.50 or $ 8.00 that's where the winner should be ... Good punting lads .
Tomas Kelly
Roar Rookie
Another cracking instalment of the great race. Couldn't possibly bet with much confidence but will be hoping that Criterion drifts in the market and if so, I'll be jumping on each-way
johny bulldog
Guest
Scared of the fav men but im sticking with winks bowman swayed me over prefement,cant wait enjoy & good luck gents
michael steel
Guest
I'd love to see Winx win the Cox Plate. She is the most exciting horse going around right now. I have one big doubt though. She may be like Starcraft a sensational horse from 10 years ago who an AJC Derby and 6 months later finished 3rd as favourite in the Cox Plate and from that day on became a champion miler.. It could also be said that this is a much better field than the field Starcraft met, being beaten by 3 year old Savabeel. And that leads me to another point , two years ago the Cox Plate was won by maiden, who's name I have forgotten. The legacy of this horse is that last years field was very good and this year the field is even better. Maybe a few keen overseas judges thought 'Hey they had a maiden 3 year old win Australia's most prestigious race ( and huge prize money) lets give it a go, Good one.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Great insight Brendan. Would love to get your thoughts on the racing over there from time to time. I have put H/Reel on top in my preview. Cam......super preview mate and good luck with Preferment. A very good value chance if he copes with the Internationals. Very good historically.
no one in particular
Roar Guru
With a name like Haradasun I thought you'd be on highland Reel
andrew
Guest
razzar, if this was a hcp i would agree with you. but the reality is, its WFA, lucky hussler flogged those you mentinon last time giving them considerable weight and lucky hussler was held up for a run for a while too and had to bump hi world out to get even clear. he now meets these horses at a track where is a G1 WFA winner. id be shocked if you got 7/4 tomorrow. i think the heavy betters have him earmarked and he will be heavily backed in the last 20mins of betting when the big money comes. i mark him about $1.80. i guess we will have to wait and see.
Razzar
Guest
The Crystal Mile looks an enthralling race. Six runners like to get up or near speed. This may provide a delema for Lucky Hussler, having to work through field late. Sure he's got the runs on the board and is a deserved fav. But rail out 3, May suit a few on pacers. Namely Strawberry boy, no barr'r 16 tomorrow. He can be very cheeky. I rate him a 12/1 chance. Hopfgarten is fitter, and in the Toorak was disadvantaged by a swooperish track. Loves the mile. Looks a 10/1 chance. The Hussler will be hard to beat, but can't get him shorter than a 7/4 chance. Good luck punters!
paulywalnuts
Guest
Kermadec peaked on his run. The Mongolian put a length on him in the last 200m. He's a good horse Kermadec, but that was the run of a miler, he's massive unders. Winx too, there are probably a dozen horses in this race better than anything she's faced. Crazy odds. Criterion the only real local hope for mine, Gailo Chop the value.
Haradasun
Guest
Criterion should be favourite given the pace in the race and his barrier. I can't forget his queen elizabeth run. Not sure what was wrong with kermadecs last run? It was pretty good i thought. Boss had him too far back just idling over the big v12 for tomorrows race if you ask me. Discount him at your peril. Highland reel and arod look super strong and will be hard to run down. And i love winx she could bloom into anything. And has the master bowman on board too. He is in great touch. It could be set up for the swoopers but these europeans look so strong i think you will need to be in striking distance from the 600. Cracking race cant wait to see it all unfold.
brendan
Guest
this is the 1st time i have looked at Australian racing ...(for the cox) 2 trainers and a jockey have stated their horse will win ..how can 3 different horses win? here in the uk,the trainers or jockeys will never say if there horse will win..just say it has a chance. i dont no anything about your horses,,why run arod over a mile for his last 4 races? i have bet highland reel.. if it is better than the rest,gettin 6 and 1/2 lb from most of the field.will help his cause..i seen it run in the usa,on a left handed circle track..dont know what it beat,but it won going away 5 to 6 lengths.. has a good turn of foot..if uk and irish form is better ,it should win easy..if its traveled ok.if it gets out to the 1st bend behind the cleaner,,should have a great chance, it has got the best jockey in the world on it..he won the race last year on highland reels 1/2 brother....just the trainer is so mean.. he would never send any horse over for this race,if he knew it wasnt better than the rest in it he has stud farm set up their .so he must know the form of every horse in the race,would of had his spys checking everything..the only bad thing is the trainer is not going to be there..he has been on the phone for 2 hours every night tell them what to do with the horse.. i dont like the trainer myself.. i have learnt when it comes to the big price money races.. you either bet him or bet nothing..it will sweat at the start..price will go out.. so if you like it bet it then,, good luck, if i dont win.. hope you lot do... (i have done a cover bet e/w on arod) hopefully it will finish 2nd to mine..
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great stuff as always Andrew. I'm with Galaxy Pegasus in the It Is Written race, I've been following him all prep, and no reason to jump off now. Winnable race for him, and a great bet at $9-$10. He's obviously in the right stable right now too! Good little race though, chances to many. Agree on My Popette, another one I've been tracking and waiting for her right race. This might be it. United States the horse to beat, but Taiyoo is great value at double figure odds, so I'll be playing there each-way. Jameka would be my top pick too. Wary of the Sydney Spring Champion form, so Hierarchal is good value for multiples and a little saver. As good and deep a Vase as I can remember with the fillies in it, it's usually weak. Yeah, I backed Fawkner for the Cox after his Caulfield Stakes flop (should have waited for the barrier draw). I've got Happy Trails going for a bit too, and he'll run well. You could back six tomorrow and not get one in the trifecta.
Cameron Rose
Expert
There's up to eight of them who would usually sit in the first three or four, but a few of them might be ridden colder in anticipation of a hot speed (Fawkner is one that comes to mind). That's a lot of go-forward horses! I can see your call unfolding. Criterion is probably the most rock solid top four bet, for a number of reasons.
andrew
Guest
Just had to wait for scr to be finalised with several key dual acceptors Tonight 1 – vicerory. Inside draw, but has the burst accellaration to take a gap when it presents, a few of these will drop out quickly and he can pounce and win 3 – small bet akzar working into form. Goes well at valley and not badly treated given form last summer when competitive in G1/G2 WFA races. Can have last crack at them with likely decent tempo from durante and temps v 5 – impossible to miss the run of grane first up and is very well graded here. Entered for two races this weekend suggesting to me he is primed to run well this run of his prep. needs luck as he gets back, but a hot tempo is assured. 6 – it is written can make it a running double for griffits/allen. The mv specialist tuned up well for this with a good run over 1000m at cran hitting line hard, that run was a just a tick over run, for this is really the winnable race for him this spring. 7 – im with chataqua. Explosive turn of foot, quality animal, berry just needs to ensure he doesn’t get sucked into rail. High tempo assured, field will string out, he will click up from 600m and just keep powered, all he needs is clear air. Tomorrow 3 – my popette comes from a stable who had done well with 3yo fillies in recent seasons (they won it last year with lumosty) and have placed her perfectly here off a run in manifold where form has been strong via badawiya and sacred eye. She beat many of her rivals that day, same weight scale here, and for mine my popette had the toughest run working 3 wide for the first 600m around the sweeper. Think is comfortably the one to beat and logic says she must be rated on top (but logic doesn’t always prevail). 4 –skinny race. Holler and mawahib dominate. Safe quinella. blinkers come off mawahib just so he is not so fierce in the run perhaps, but his quality is obvious and his run last time in fast time was very good behind a smart one in keen array. Holler drops back to 1200m which I think will suit. Find it very hard to split them. All comes down to who gets the better run. Mawahib will work early and be on pace. Holler taking a sit with cover trying to nail it late. Both have top class jockeys on board. Delving deep, I think mawahib can get across comfy enough from his draw without working too much as there is not a lot of speed here and I lean his way by an inch. 6 – united states the horse to beat. Not sure why prince of penzance is so short, I like him as a horse, but has negative formlines to turn around, more a $7 chance. United states just missed in naturalism and no hope last time in JRA cup, he is going well. This is his chance to pick up a race. $4.20 a reasonable price. 7 - The melb fillies are better than the melb boys. It’s a view many have held and each week as more races pass by no one is deviating from. Things could fragment as move out to the staying trip I accept. Now, it doesn’t always work out this way. But when it does, you kick yourself you didn’t follow basic logic. So here goes. Jameka beat Badwiya in the Thous Guin. Badawiya easily beat Sacred Eye the run before in the Manifold. Sacred Eye comfortably beat Lizard Island last Sat. Lizard Island beat several of the boys who run in the Vase in the Caul Guin. You can argue this is tenuous and each race has its own circumstances, but I think there is a bit it in. Further, to strengthen things a bit. Tarzino beat Etymology 2 runs back by about the same margin Sacred Eye beat it by last Sat. Tarzino also beat Sailing By who then ran 4th in Manifold well behind both Badawiya and Sacred Eye. Conclusion: back Jameka and Pasadena Girl with a split, and take a little quinella also. 8 – as a few of you know, I managed to get a bit of $4 lucky hussler on Monday off the noms (I think the TAB must have thought it was still a hcp). But really, he surely just wins this. Outstanding, dominant and arrogant win last time in Toorak. WFA scale suits him, and disadvantages rivals. Proven at a mile. Already a G1 winner at the valley. Assured a good tempo with likes of strawberry boy, turn me loose, worthy cause (blinkers back on hooked too). boss just to give him clear air and pull him out at the 600m and he will be too good. appreciate hooked won this race last year, but it was much weaker race (he beat bull point) and hooked had better lead up form (was coming of an Epsom 3rd placing) and even then lucky hussler beat hooked when the clashed after that in the emirates when lucky hussler just couldn’t peg back hucklebuck. form out of this years espom shaping as dubious (entirely platinum, teranado, lucia valentina, sadlers lake all unplaced since). 9 –no firm view. One of my top 3 rules of punting is always forgive a good horse one bad run. Two bad runs and it’s a trend (ie, catkins). But fawkner has turned in one bad run. Small mug bet from me ew him, never forgive myself. Cracking race though. all 3 internationals are a must for any quad. I might even had a small quin with the 3 internationals. A bit against winx, more a $12 chance for mine. not convinced kermadec either over what shapes as a real test of stamina and an uphill run to the line. For the record 13-8-10-2. 10 – coronation shallam ran a cracking race last week and her first up run over 1200m here was just a good. both runs against the boys, back to mares grade here and very well graded. Not a heap of speed in this and she can get across from that draw and give a great sight at her fave track. ADL 6 – cavaloche returns and her first up win last time was that of a pretty smart horse. Form plateuad a bit after that. Keen to back her fresh, and hoping she can show the same ping as last time. 7 – held hostage has perfect draw and gets in light and 1400m suits first up. Tuned up with 2 trials and if coming back to flem over carnival (it won on stks day last year) will want to be forward first up and can win. 8 – amiconi originale back in trip and freshened up strikes a very weak race, plenty with maiden and 58 class form, im pleasantly surprised with the early odds of $5.50 Yarra Valley 5 – trancing will be very hard to run down for bevan laming stable after setting strong tempo in pinker pinker last time she is right back in grade her and won easily in the same grade (BM64) prior and after a few warm up runs this prep, can get back in the winners list Sale Sun 5 – Spur on Gold promising stayer in Pat Carey yard, all 3 runs this pre have been very good in races either too short in distance or in much higher grade. Strikes a race he can win at a trip that suits here. As a lightly raced 4yo, he has more upside than most of these and his 3yo form in sat grade last winner was certainly strong enough for this.
razzar
Guest
Tempo will have a say in who wins the 2015 Cox plate. The Cleaner drawn well to lead, Arod, Highland reel & Complacent. If this rat-pack get out around 3 to 5 lengths from the field, and not go too hard in the firsr 1000. It'll be hard work for the backmarkers to get into the race... Class should still rise to the top. Highland Reel should be hitting lead as they turn in. Criterion is now out in open. A dogged Complacent battles on....what race we're about to see. Highland reel 3/1. Criterion 7/2 Arod & Complacent 8/1. For mine............. Good lukk punters!