After watching Scotland almost dispatch the Wallabies, I’m dispensing with a one-eyed approach and predicting that the semi-final cruncher between the All Blacks and Springboks at Twickenham on Saturday is, well, anyone’s game.
I am an All Black supporter, but for once we the fans – just as the team itself – know they are in for one heck of a contest.
I am interested to see how the Boks try to put the brakes on Julian ‘The Bus’ Savea. The Jonah Lomu-like figure, who knocked over three Frenchmen on the way to scoring one of his three scintillating tries in their quarter-final last Saturday, must know he will be a marked man.
I remember how Bok winger James Small, given the task of keeping New Zealand’s incredible hulk at bay in 1995, managed to successfully quell the Lomu machine so that he was not really a factor in the Ellis Park final.
My guess is that the Boks will wave tackle Savea – commit at least two players to bringing him down – and use that as a basis to snuff him out of the game.
It will still be tough however, because Savea makes impressive carries, even when he is not dotting down.
This could then serve as the ideal opportunity, because if the Boks are committing numbers to stop Savea, it could open up gaps.
Against France, the All Blacks played in sixth gear for just about the entire match. Can they repeat this kind of performance? Will the Boks let them?
I’m afraid that the same high-paced approach might not come off, as the Boks – having seen what the Kiwi machine is capable of when fully on song – will be ready to slow things down.
The Boks are likley to use ‘heavies’ like Schalk Burger, Damien de Allende, Duane Vermeulen and Bismarck du Plessis to stifle the All Blacks and deny their backs the expansiveness they thrive on.
If things are not in synch these full-throttle approaches can backfire. If the All Blacks throw the ball around with abandon, the Springboks will punish a knock on, dicey pass, or intercept.
With brutes like du Plessis, Burger, Tendai Mtawarira, de Allende and Lood de Jager in the mix, the Boks have few equals when it comes to getting to the gainline. Heyneke Meyer’s gameplan is to play it the South African way – in the forwards.
And if the forwards lay the platform, they have the backs to do the job. Guys like Jesse Kriel, de Allende, Bryan Habana, pivot Handre Pollard and JP Pietersen can exploit any gaps.
The Boks held their own at breakdowns and scrums in the previous Rugby Championship match, and can effect penalties, which could upset the All Blacks’ structures and tactical patterns.
Fetchers Francois Louw and Burger will be giving it all they’ve got around the fringes to deny their opposition sight of the ball. The Boks are also using the rolling maul to good effect and it’s a weapon they could use if they are awarded penalties and can kick towards the corner flags.
Perhaps the Boks’ biggest concern is their renowned habit of losing focus in the last five to 10 minutes. The All Blacks’ conditioning is superb, as shown by their annihilation of the French. New Zealand’s ability to run teams flat in the last 15 to 20 minutes is an important string to their bow.
The All Blacks’ mobility and backline skills, aligned to the fact they play the game at a terrific tempo as and when they see fit, could prove too much for the Boks.
The All Blacks are masters of sucking in the opposition and working quick ball through the hands to open up gaps. The midfield pairing of Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu are workhorses who can cut through defences and take on gaps.
The breakdown will be a ferocious affair and strongmen like Jerome Kaino, inspirational captain Richie McCaw, Brodie Retallick and Sam Whitelock will be asking serious questions of the Bok pack.
The All Blacks have tremendous mobility around the fringes, and their supporting players seize gaps and find players on the outside. Scrumhalf Aaron Smith is superb at foraging for quick ball and releasing his backs as quick as a flash. His box kicks are improving and his duel with Fourie du Preez will be captivating to say the least.
The substitutes bench is going to play a crucial role in this match. Sonny Bill Williams adds a new dimension to the All Blacks’ bench, as does Graham Kerr-Barlow. However the Boks have a very effective bench too.
It comes down to the Boks trying to run through players, while the All Blacks will be looking to run around the opposition with slick handling, skill and an eye for the gap.
These two contrasting styles will make for an absorbing contest.
taylorman
Roar Guru
All irrelevant when none of them were against each other. It's only relative about how they go against England really, the ground itself irrelevant. Pretty sure Boks wouldnt be unbeaten in a decade there if they'd played the ABs every match. Nor vice versa.
mactheblack
Guest
My apologies to Roarers for my serious oversight, that should have been Tawera Kerr-Barlow in my post.
mactheblack
Guest
I feel a bit embarrassed that I cannot say the ABs for sure are going to nail it - even though I am a die-hard supporter. But you have to give the Boks respect - and their renowned determination to beat the foe, always make up for what they lack in terms of some skills compared to the ABs! The ABs inability to steady the scrum and counter the rolling maul were huge concerns the last time round in the Rugby Championship against the Boks. Also, it's not that Aaron Smith had a bad game then, the scrum was under so much pressure, the collisions and counter-rucking so brutal, he battled to clean out the ball effectively - and get the backline moving. One hopes that they have found some sort of counter for it come Saturday. May the best team win .. but am hoping of course the result goes, for me that is, the right way!
Left Wing
Guest
Yes, I was there that day. Mulder was not exactly a giant; just a tough Japie!
mace 22
Guest
P & P I like what your saying. ABs will cruise to victory.
Left Wing
Guest
Yes, I was there that day. Mulder was not exactly a giant....just a tough Jaap!
Vic
Guest
Ha ha. The AB's are the underdogs. Good try. It will either be a hard fought, no quarter asked no quarter given fight to the death with a small winning margin by either Boks or Kiwis, or the AB's wlll establish authority quickly and run away with it. Hope it's the first. #praytheAB'sdon'tfallpreytoastomachbugagain
Geoff Parkes
Expert
OJ, you've captured my feelings exactly. I am surprisingly calm and un-anxious about this match. I respect SA greatly but I am confident that the AB's will have prepared well and will deliver. I have also found myself thinking about how we will never see these players for the AB's again and I imagine that will only intensify into (hopefully) next week.
Tiger
Guest
For the Bok's to win, they will need to completely outplay the AB's (or keep the margins close) in all facets of the game. The Bok's can't rely on beating the AB's in some areas they'll have to match or better the AB's in all to give themselves a chance. If the Bok's control the set pieces and the AB's the ruck area and kick return, the AB's will keep ball-in-hand, look to wear the Bok's down and punch holes through the defense line in the latter stages of the game. Complacency won't be a factor for the AB's, Hansen, Ritche and co won't allow it. The weather will play a small part, both teams are professional enough to deal with this factor. The officials will do their jobs. It's a semi-final so no motivation needed for either team. The Bok's defiantly have the personnel to beat the AB's, however, I think the AB's fitness will be a key factor in this game, IMO they have a slight edge on the Bok's in that department. Cool heads will also play a role, the AB's edge the Bok's here as well for mine. AB's to take this one.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
After being frustrated with the All Blacks in the pool stages, I stopped worrying about them from the quarterfinal build-up on. These past two weeks have been the least apprehensive I've felt about an All Blacks test since I was a kid. Let the team show what they can do. So many people were worried about the French test, but the team had prepared for it behind closed doors. Now people are bullish, but again the team are preparing for the game behind closed doors. If anything, I'm starting to think about how this is the end of the line for Carter, McCaw, Smith and Nonu. It's drawing closer. An 11 year run that started on the 2004 EOYT and can maybe be capped with a history making WC victory. I think I'd feel a whole lot worse if we were still waiting for our first WC since '87.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Yes, you have won your last 5 at the ground against England. How did you go in the previous 5 matches there? Your Twickenham record overall is 12 wins 9 losses 1 draw. The All Blacks is 18 wins 6 losses 1 draw.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
In all honesty you can double team Savea. We have weapons everywhere. Milner-Skudder is just as damaging. How many first tackles has he been breaking all season and he has superior stepping skills to Savea. Ben Smith has made more metres than anyone this tournament. Nonu is always a danger. Carter, in case you hadn't noticed has been attacking the line more in recent games and Aaron Smith is always a danger around the rucks. Difference between 1995 and this team is far more world class attacking options and if you double team one player you are going to give space to another lethal attacker.
Antoni
Roar Rookie
New Zealand are huge favourites an deserve to be. Yes, they have not won a World Cup out side Auckland but on recent form and in particular 2015 form the Boks should be given a 21 point start. Doesn't mean the Boks can't win. Most of us still rate them because they have some of the best players in the World. I am not sure if I want them to win or not because if the Wallabies win a Bok win would deprive us of the chance to defeat NZ on the final.
pete and paul
Roar Rookie
oh dear Harry - you have lost the plot now...I thought you were really intelligent...what has Twickers got to do with it??? the ABs would still win if it was in Abu Dhabi...
pete and paul
Roar Rookie
dreaming and hoping again...now you want the weather to help you...jeez maybe the lights will go out ...
pete and paul
Roar Rookie
that was 1995 - HISTORY - we are now in 2015 - and all your dreaming, hoping, wishing will count for nought!!!
gbrizzy
Guest
Harry you have been fervent in your quest for the underdog tag since before the WC started and then they lost to Japan. When both teams run out onto the feild at Twickenham it will be with no tags attached for both teams only a focus and confidence in their abilities to getting the job done. Passion will get you so far but skill and fitness with execution will bring home the Bokke I mean bacon
Geoff Parkes
Expert
Graham Kerr-Barlow?? Let's hope that Tawera does a better job on Sunday morning than Graham managed in this clip... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mY4Qi7J4ag
mielie
Guest
Does anyone recall what the bookies odds were on the 1995 final?
Paul from Melbourne
Guest
I love the banter.