The NBA tips off again tomorrow, so there’s no better time to play the role of B-grade basketball Nostradamus and make some predictions for the upcoming season.
Specifically, I’ll nominate the NBA champions, the major award winners – plus one little bonus prognostication.
Drum roll please!
NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
It’s not exactly a bold selection to nominate the Spurs as NBA champions.
Apart from the fact they’ve won five titles in the last 17 seasons, and are a perennial playoff team, they also had the best off-season of any franchise, signing superstar LaMarcus Aldridge, along with the experienced David West.
They’ll join an already strong squad that includes the evergreen Tim Duncan, star point guard Tony Parker, young gun Kawhi Leonard, ‘3&D’ specialist Danny Green, the versatile Boris Diaw, bench sparkplug Patty Mills, and cagey veteran Manu Ginobli
It’s a stacked line-up, and coached by the best in the business – and maybe ever – in Gregg Popovich, who was recently named the next Team USA head coach.
The Spurs have the best roster, the best coach and the best culture – so San Antonio may be an obvious choice for the title, but it’s obvious for a reason.
MVP: Kevin Durant
For a short time, the MVP discussion each year was a two-horse race between LeBron James and Kevin Durant, yet this season it’s a somewhat cluttered field.
Steph Curry deservingly won the NBA’s highest individual award last season, and could potentially be even better this year. Meanwhile, the runner-up to Curry was James Harden, who was actually nominated by his peers as the best player in the league last season.
Anthony Davis is on the cusp of superstardom, and will therefore also be in the conversation, provided his New Orleans Pelicans can win enough games.
Likewise, Russell Westbrook catapulted himself into MVP contention last year, however his team’s inability to make the playoffs counted against him. If the Thunder can stay healthy, that shouldn’t be a problem again this season.
That’s four players before we even mention LeBron James, who only happens to be the best player on the planet, and a four-time winner of this award.
Then there are names like Chris Paul, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, DeMarcus Cousin and Blake Griffin, who may not win, but should still poll strongly.
Yet my selection is Kevin Durant, who – if he’s fit – is primed to remind everyone of just how great he is. And I think a few pundits may have forgotten.
He missed most of last season with injury, but was the MVP the year before, and I think he’ll be motivated to bounce back and have a monster year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard
A ball-hawk in the mould of Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan, Leonard is an absolute beast on defence. He’s capable of downright smothering the player he is defending, and with his staggering wingspan and ridiculously large hands, he’s nothing short of a nightmare for opponents.
Leonard led the league in defensive rating last year, and would be at shorts odds to do so again.
He also won this award last season, so it’s not exactly a stretch to see him winning it again, but the fact is, he’s the best defender in the league, so why wouldn’t he?
Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers
As a Laker fan, it pains me to ever give the Clippers any credit or kudos, but I suspect Los Angeles’ other (main?) team is primed for a massive regular season.
The Clippers have run their mouth a little in the off-season, sniping at the supposed ‘luck’ the Golden State Warriors had on their way to last year’s championship.
Those comments have actually put some heat back on the Clippers to perform, and atone for last season’s choke against the Houston Rockets in the playoffs. Combined with the signing of veteran Paul Pierce, it should ensure the Clips play with some motivation and fire this year.
That sustained intensity – along with some improved depth – should lead the team to a lot of regular season wins, for which Rivers will be rewarded with winning coach of the year.
To be honest, Rivers’ tactics and nous may not add up to the best ‘pure’ coaching job that will be done this season – which, for mine, will still be the work done in San Antonio – but it will still earn him the nod.
Most Improved Player: Doug McDermott
This award is always difficult to predict, as you really have no idea who is going to surprise you with their development.
In fact, many times it’s not even the improvement of said player that nets them this award, bur rather, simply more opportunities.
With that in mind, I think the Bulls’ McDermott is in line to take home the trophy.
The sweet-shooting small forward should see increased minutes under new coach Fred Hoiberg, plus Mike Dunleavy is out for an extended period. That might be enough for McDermott to considerably up his production – particularly his points per game average – and thus be deemed the most improved player in the league.
Rookie of the Year: Karl-Anthony Towns
The easy answer is Jahlil Okafor, considering he’ll be playing for lowly Sixers. He’s going to get plenty of minutes, plenty of touches, and plenty of points. That’s generally all you need to win Rookie of the Year.
However, I think Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns might just pip him, with a more well-rounded game that may appeal to the voters.
Towns won’t be asked do too much on offence for the T’Wolves, but Ricky Rubio will still get him plenty of lob passes, and Towns’ offensive rebounding will also help boost his scoring rate. Combine that with his anticipated defensive presence, and I think he might be the unexpected winner over Okafor.
Well, as unexpected as it can be when you’re taken first in the draft . . .
Sixth Man of the Year: Enes Kanter
If you come off the bench for most of the season, and score lots of points, you’re in a good position to win this award.
With the Thunder apparently starting Steven Adams at centre, Kanter will head OKC’s second unit, and considering he’ll score a lot of points, he essentially ticks the two boxes most needed for this award.
I’m not putting more analysis than that into it, because the voters generally don’t, though I suspect Andre Iguodala’s new found status as a NBA Finals MVP will also hold some sway with voters.
Bonus prediction: Derrick Rose will get traded
There are rumblings out of Chicago that Rose is a little on the nose with the organisation and some teammates.
Normally I prefer to ignore tabloid narratives of this kind, but I think there might be a little fire to this particular Bulls’ smoke, and I can envisage a scenario in which the former MVP gets traded away.
Coldly, but pragmatically, a fresh start may be exactly what both parties need.
ALLeigHOOPS
Roar Rookie
Its worth noting that not one of my above predictions came in... :(. Although OKC should have won game 5 or 6 and made the finals. Okafor did average 17 and 8, so that was pretty much on the money. Didn't think KAT would be that good though.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
I read the following stat today, and was reminded of this conversation! “No NBA player has ever matched Noel’s per game steal (1.8) and block (1.7) averages through his rookie and sophomore seasons . . . "
Riordan Lee
Editor
Watching the Spurs vs OKC - holy moly, it's early days but on Durant, Leonard is an absolute monster - lock him in for Defensive Player of The Year
blue eyed codger
Guest
Super Mario from the Magic will be the rookie of the year!!
ALLeigHOOPS
Roar Rookie
I'm more inclined to lean towards what the pre season stats may glean than euro league stats... Have you watched any of the games Pete? Williams hasnt had to create any offense with the Knicks, which is what he is made for. He's FINALLY being used properly and is clearly a different player. So, yes, the pre season can be very useful and should just not be ignored entirely. We're not talking about wins/losses in preseason thats a different argument altogether. We're talking about players. Williams will be different this year just wait and see.
pete bloor
Guest
Also the stats can't be both "mostly useless" and a "pretty good guide" they are either one or the other as stats at their predictive best are only a guide.
pete bloor
Guest
I disagree on the preseason stats just sample size alone renders them useless let alone the rest of the obvious flaws. I like the "I prefer to watch the games" if that's the case why are all your arguments stats based and why keep throwing out the meaningless preseason stats like they are stone tablets from heaven? Even your DPOY was solely 2.5 + 2.5 without a single qualitative element to it. As for the injury yep there are many (58thirty has one apparently but it doesn't go into specific injuries - inability to generate a sufficient sample size and data quality would be a concern) but it wouldn't really work for Noel because he was a rookie so there is no prior period to go from. He also had what 20 months off? Hard to say last year he was really hampered by that injury for any meaningful period, if he was then there is no reason to think such re-occurrences wouldn't happen this year. Clearly noel's going to put up good steal and block numbers, but asking for a leap like that given his minutes I think is pretty out there. If you think the threshold for a pipe dream is a #4 pick on a horrible team beating out a 5th year guy earning less than his rookie scale contract then surely this type of leap has to be pretty far fetched right?
pete bloor
Guest
It is incredibly rare for a player to suddenly just become decent in their 5th season though. I remain incredibly dubious of their being any role that suits Williams that doesn't have him being a bench player. He can inefficiently create his own offence which off the bench isn't horrible but he doesn't bring a lot more. As for the constant preseason stats are you telling me the Warriors will be in the lottery this year?
ALLeigHOOPS
Roar Rookie
Pete, while I agree preseason stats are mosty useless, it's not entirely accurate. They can be a very good guide too what is about to happen. Noel is also going from being a rookie returning from a horrific career threating ACL-Leg injury that removed a year of growth out of his journey. It's well known that while it may take 12 months to return physically, mentally it takes several more months. This year you will see a massive jump acorss the board in his percentages, efficiency and raw numbers as his comfort increases. He is also more comfortable playing the PF position now with Okafor taking the scoring load as the starting C. Noel can just concentrate on being a doberman on defence. Watching him in preseason he has improved out of site. Is there a mathematic algorithm for players returning from injury? I prefer to watch the games.
pete bloor
Guest
Yep but in each case it was a minutes jump for Scottie he went from 20 to 33.1 to 38.4 So you're basically saying Noel will play north of 36 minutes a game as an NBA big. Preseason stats are meaningless. Sample size, competition level, rotations etc. all make for it just throw all validity out. It's a qualitative process only really during preseason.
ALLeigHOOPS
Roar Rookie
It's worth noting that the role Williams is playing now suits his game. Hes back to being the college player that became the number 2 pick in the draft. Minny and the Knigs tried to make him something he wasnt and did not play to his strenghths at all. The Knicks are using properly, he will be a different player this year. Pre season with the Knicks he averaged 17 points per game.
ALLeigHOOPS
Roar Rookie
Sorry Pete, I think I accidently reported your comment thinking it was the reply. Unintentional. But In reply to your comment, I dont see that being a big jump at all. It's been done many times in NBA annals. I give you Scottie Pippen's first 3 years in the league as my exhibit A. Steals per game YR1 - 1.2 YR 2 - 1.9 YR 3 - 2.6 He jumped 0.7 steals per game each year. Noel averaged 4.5 spg in pre season. He is in the process of being unleashed
pete bloor
Guest
I think the 30 games is more probable than the 2.5/2.5 Jumping 0.7 steals per game when you already play 30 minutes would be an amazing feat in an of itself.
pete bloor
Guest
Actually to clarify the upgrade from 14 to 18 is based on - I don't see Melo playing heavy minutes in 65+ games as a 30+ guy coming off knee surgery that's always had niggling injury issues and toughness questions. So I think he'll get the green light to shoot more than would otherwise be advisable. This is exacerbated by New York having no other bright spot on their roster.
pete bloor
Guest
I pulled it from his Euro league stats. Hey kill me for it if you like but plenty of NBA teams use the exact same regression model pioneered by Hollinger and then further refined to give a rough translation for euro numbers into what you can expect a player to do, pace adjusted, in the NBA. Again the top line number is going to be minutes driven So if you're thinking he's playing 15 or so minutes sure. I think given the lack of any viable alternative to play upfront (moving Carmelo there just leaves a hack playing the 3). I don't actually rate him that highly as an overall player but if I've got two seasons of in competition professional play that suggest one thing or a handful of preseason games which have always been incredibly unreliable I'm taking the professional games if it is okay by you.
pete bloor
Guest
Obviously it is based on him getting the minutes as ROY is normally just rookie scoring leader. I’m not saying he will be good this year, far from it I think he’ll be a bit of a train wreck on D and take a lot of bad shots. I think where we differ substantially is that I’d be stunned if he doesn’t get 25+ minutes given I think he’s been named as opening night starter. I just don’t see O’quinn and/or Williams getting big minutes. Neither could start, get 20+ minutes off the bench or stay healthy at Sacramento or Orlando last year so I just don’t see where the sudden optimism that they are churning out starters minutes at the 4 for 82 games (Mel will play more 3 than 4 and is likely to top out around the 65 game mark anyway) all season comes from now. I see most of Quinns minutes coming in for Lopez. As For Williams I know the Knicks aren’t the most stable of franchises but why give minutes from your #4 pick to a known quantity bust inefficient scorer (whose output is less than Kristaps translated euro numbers). I don’t think Kristaps will be the best rookie but the Knicks roster is flaming car wreck and that means minutes and minutes for a guy like him means scoring which normally means ROY.
Sebastian Quinn
Roar Guru
A lot of people sleeping on the David West signing for the Spurs. Will be great off the bench for them!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Either way, Ainge's asset hoarding is bound to pay off. Either he packages something up in a trade for a quality player, or he keeps them and gets three consecutive lottery picks (plus the other picks he has up his sleeve).
my2cents
Guest
While boston Badly needs a consolidation trade. I don't think any GM who's good at their Job would be willing to trade those picks this far out. Boston Just needs to find a way to turn the guys they have into a better singular guy that is ready to move on.
Kingcowboy
Guest
I think there is less than a 2% chance that Boston see all three of those high draft picks. I think there is a massive chance that Danny Ainge packages a number of draft picks, with Sullinger and maybe James Young and goes after a player like DeMacus Cousins from the Kings. George Karl and Cousins is an power keg ready to explode, so it would be awesome to see the big man in Green.