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The NBA tips off again tomorrow, so there’s no better time to play the role of B-grade basketball Nostradamus and make some predictions for the upcoming season.
Specifically, I’ll nominate the NBA champions, the major award winners – plus one little bonus prognostication.
Drum roll please!
NBA Champion: San Antonio Spurs
It’s not exactly a bold selection to nominate the Spurs as NBA champions.
Apart from the fact they’ve won five titles in the last 17 seasons, and are a perennial playoff team, they also had the best off-season of any franchise, signing superstar LaMarcus Aldridge, along with the experienced David West.
They’ll join an already strong squad that includes the evergreen Tim Duncan, star point guard Tony Parker, young gun Kawhi Leonard, ‘3&D’ specialist Danny Green, the versatile Boris Diaw, bench sparkplug Patty Mills, and cagey veteran Manu Ginobli
It’s a stacked line-up, and coached by the best in the business – and maybe ever – in Gregg Popovich, who was recently named the next Team USA head coach.
The Spurs have the best roster, the best coach and the best culture – so San Antonio may be an obvious choice for the title, but it’s obvious for a reason.
MVP: Kevin Durant
For a short time, the MVP discussion each year was a two-horse race between LeBron James and Kevin Durant, yet this season it’s a somewhat cluttered field.
Steph Curry deservingly won the NBA’s highest individual award last season, and could potentially be even better this year. Meanwhile, the runner-up to Curry was James Harden, who was actually nominated by his peers as the best player in the league last season.
Anthony Davis is on the cusp of superstardom, and will therefore also be in the conversation, provided his New Orleans Pelicans can win enough games.
Likewise, Russell Westbrook catapulted himself into MVP contention last year, however his team’s inability to make the playoffs counted against him. If the Thunder can stay healthy, that shouldn’t be a problem again this season.
That’s four players before we even mention LeBron James, who only happens to be the best player on the planet, and a four-time winner of this award.
Then there are names like Chris Paul, Paul George, Carmelo Anthony, DeMarcus Cousin and Blake Griffin, who may not win, but should still poll strongly.
Yet my selection is Kevin Durant, who – if he’s fit – is primed to remind everyone of just how great he is. And I think a few pundits may have forgotten.
He missed most of last season with injury, but was the MVP the year before, and I think he’ll be motivated to bounce back and have a monster year.
Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard
A ball-hawk in the mould of Scottie Pippen and Michael Jordan, Leonard is an absolute beast on defence. He’s capable of downright smothering the player he is defending, and with his staggering wingspan and ridiculously large hands, he’s nothing short of a nightmare for opponents.
Leonard led the league in defensive rating last year, and would be at shorts odds to do so again.
He also won this award last season, so it’s not exactly a stretch to see him winning it again, but the fact is, he’s the best defender in the league, so why wouldn’t he?
Coach of the Year: Doc Rivers
As a Laker fan, it pains me to ever give the Clippers any credit or kudos, but I suspect Los Angeles’ other (main?) team is primed for a massive regular season.
The Clippers have run their mouth a little in the off-season, sniping at the supposed ‘luck’ the Golden State Warriors had on their way to last year’s championship.
Those comments have actually put some heat back on the Clippers to perform, and atone for last season’s choke against the Houston Rockets in the playoffs. Combined with the signing of veteran Paul Pierce, it should ensure the Clips play with some motivation and fire this year.
That sustained intensity – along with some improved depth – should lead the team to a lot of regular season wins, for which Rivers will be rewarded with winning coach of the year.
To be honest, Rivers’ tactics and nous may not add up to the best ‘pure’ coaching job that will be done this season – which, for mine, will still be the work done in San Antonio – but it will still earn him the nod.
Most Improved Player: Doug McDermott
This award is always difficult to predict, as you really have no idea who is going to surprise you with their development.
In fact, many times it’s not even the improvement of said player that nets them this award, bur rather, simply more opportunities.
With that in mind, I think the Bulls’ McDermott is in line to take home the trophy.
The sweet-shooting small forward should see increased minutes under new coach Fred Hoiberg, plus Mike Dunleavy is out for an extended period. That might be enough for McDermott to considerably up his production – particularly his points per game average – and thus be deemed the most improved player in the league.
Rookie of the Year: Karl-Anthony Towns
The easy answer is Jahlil Okafor, considering he’ll be playing for lowly Sixers. He’s going to get plenty of minutes, plenty of touches, and plenty of points. That’s generally all you need to win Rookie of the Year.
However, I think Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns might just pip him, with a more well-rounded game that may appeal to the voters.
Towns won’t be asked do too much on offence for the T’Wolves, but Ricky Rubio will still get him plenty of lob passes, and Towns’ offensive rebounding will also help boost his scoring rate. Combine that with his anticipated defensive presence, and I think he might be the unexpected winner over Okafor.
Well, as unexpected as it can be when you’re taken first in the draft . . .
Sixth Man of the Year: Enes Kanter
If you come off the bench for most of the season, and score lots of points, you’re in a good position to win this award.
With the Thunder apparently starting Steven Adams at centre, Kanter will head OKC’s second unit, and considering he’ll score a lot of points, he essentially ticks the two boxes most needed for this award.
I’m not putting more analysis than that into it, because the voters generally don’t, though I suspect Andre Iguodala’s new found status as a NBA Finals MVP will also hold some sway with voters.
Bonus prediction: Derrick Rose will get traded
There are rumblings out of Chicago that Rose is a little on the nose with the organisation and some teammates.
Normally I prefer to ignore tabloid narratives of this kind, but I think there might be a little fire to this particular Bulls’ smoke, and I can envisage a scenario in which the former MVP gets traded away.
Coldly, but pragmatically, a fresh start may be exactly what both parties need.