The trade, draft and hope for 2016

By Edgar Slosh / Roar Guru

The meat market is over for 2015 and an unprecedented amount of flesh traded colours in search of better opportunities, money or lifestyle.

It used to be about the game. Every club had a chance to refresh their list, strengthen their push for finals or for the premiership. Some needed to accumulate points to keep the talent they have nurtured for years.

So with that in mind, we look at what transpired during the trade period and what the draft may look like for each team.

Expect to see a major loophole where clubs start nominating academy players and father/son selections early to make clubs pay overs for talent and give themselves better positions later in the draft with extra points to bank.

Adelaide
Got screwed over with the Dangerfield deal. A first and second round pick for one of the best players in the competition was a joke. Spin it any way you want. Exchanging a third round pick for Dean Gore will be a wait and see proposition.

The recruiting of Curtley Hampton and Paul Seedsman were solid choices bringing much needed run and carry from the back half. Trading out Sam Kerridge and a second round pick for Troy Menzel was a master stroke.

The Crows’ potent forward line just became even more lethal. They also lost their second round draft pick for next year where they have two father/son selections available.

2015 draft picks: 9, 13, 71, 89, 107, 125

Adelaide has a giant headache. They didn’t leave themselves with enough points to get father/son recruit, Ben Jarman, without going into deficit for 2016. If the Hawks try and grab him with pick 15 it will hurt the Crows going forward.

They will be hoping that the versatile big man, Aaron Francis is available at pick 9. Highly doubtful he will be but if he is, it will be a bargain. If not Clayton Oliver will be high on their radar.

Lock in local lad Wayne Milera for pick 13. Later rounds will be for a few locals like midfielder Bailey Williams and wingman Hugh Haysman.

Brisbane
Achieved their desired result which was to have enough points at the draft to keep two of their future stars. Ryan Bastinac, Tom Bell, Jarrad Jansen and Josh Walker look like adequate acquisitions, while James Aish, Matthew Leuenberger and Jack Redden go out. The Lions also lost next year’s third round draft pick.

2015 draft picks: 2, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 78, 96, 114

Josh Schache will come in at two while the Lions should have enough points to snare academy players Ben Keays and Eric Hipwood. They may not have enough left over to get a third academy member in ruck sensation Mabior Chol without going into deficit in what should be a good draft for the struggling Queensland club. Half forward Andrew Gallucci and midfielder Kade Stewart could be surprise choices late.

Carlton
Brought in quantity for quality and missed the mark completely. Lost Troy Menzel, Tom Bell, Lachie Henderson and Chris Yarran and brought in Sam Kerridge, Andrew Phillips, Jed Lamb, Lachie Plowman and Liam Sumner. Not sure how they expect to kick goals and relying on the draft is risky at this stage. Safe to say the rebuild has begun.

2015 draft picks: 1, 8, 11, 19, 59, 60, 113

Lock in key defender Jacob Weitering at one and forwards Sam Weideman and Ryan Burton at eight and eleven respectively. Another key defender Kieran Collins will likely go at 19.

The biggest question is whether they can land Jack Silvagni as a father/son selection with their later picks. If they have to match an offer they will go into 2016 in deficit. Jake Bradley is another father/son who should get to the blues for very little. Their first four selections could be how the Blues structure their team going forward in the next decade.

Collingwood
Young gun Adam Treloar, unproven James Aish and the high flying Jeremy Howe come into the club at the expense of youngsters Nathan Freeman, Ben Kennedy, Paul Seedsman and next years first round pick. They paid far too much for Treloar and have left themselves exposed going into the future.

2015 draft picks: 27, 66, 77, 83, 84, 101, 119

Big gamble with holes in defense and up forward becoming an issue in the next few years. Tall defender Riley Bonner looks suited to the Pies. Ruckman/forward Tim Sullivan or forward Tom Wilson should be on their radar.

After that there is very little for the club to be excited about. Perhaps former blue utility Matthew Watson could be worth a late pick as well as agile half forward Davin Ferriera.

Essendon
Matthew Leuenberger and Craig Bird replace Jake Carlisle, Jake Melksham and Jonathan Giles. Nothing much to see there.

2015 draft picks: 4, 5, 24, 25, 57, 80, 98, 116

This is where Essendon must get it right. Watch the Bombers start calling academy and father/son names early to maximise their points and push their late selections up the order.

Depending on Melbourne’s first pick they will either take brilliant midfielder Darcy Parish or utility Aaron Francis and then mid Harley Balic with picks four and five.

Another mid Nick O’Kearney and forward/mid Aidyn Johnson should find their way to Tullamarine also. The tactic of calling names early will help with their chances of grabbing father/sons Tom Wallis who is a midfielder and more importantly utility Harvey Daniher who as a GWS academy member could end up at the giants if they have enough points and don’t call his name first.

Fremantle
Fremantle, oh Fremantle… another trade period where they failed to land a forward or a defender. Harley Bennell was a bargain but only if they can get him right. Spent too long obsessing over Cam McCarthy when there were other options available.

2015 draft picks: 22, 35, 61, 74, 92, 110, 128

200cm Utility Ben McKay looks like a good choice at pick 22. Local forward Dylan Smith should still be around at pick 35. Tall midfielder Jordan Snadden could also find his way to the club late as could key forward Matthew Allen.

Should have a look at St Kilda discard Spencer White. Tall forward who has talent. May have to look at a mature-aged defender late.

Geelong
Why would you trade your future away for a short term fix that may not even work out? The Cats got Patrick Dangerfield for a song, Lachie Henderson, Zac Smith and an injury prone Scott Selwood who for nothing is probably still paying overs.

Plus they lost a third and fifth-round pick from next year’s draft. Out goes Dean Gore, Jarrad Jansen, Josh Walker, Dawson Simpson and Steve Johnson who, let’s face it, was pushed out of the door. They have a bunch of 30+ year olds with a year or two left. After that there is no one of quality coming through the ranks.

2015 draft picks: 67, 85, 103, 121

Geelongs first two picks near the end of the fourth and fifth round will yield nothing but project players like tall forward Callum Moore or half back Lachlan Tiziani. Midfielder Nash Holmes is a smoky late. Their need for defenders is critical and the 2016 draft is even worse with the bulk of top end talent coming through the northern academies and father/son selections.

The only way to avoid a potential disaster is to trade for youngsters from other clubs and given how little currency they have left it is a high risk game that looks like it could back fire quickly.

Gold Coast
The suns bring in Daniel Currie, Matt Rosa plus a 2016 first round pick and three 2016 second round draft picks which has the Suns looking good for next years draft. Losing Harley Bennell, Charlie Dixon and Zac Smith isn’t the end of the world.

2015 draft picks: 6, 16, 29, 56, 79, 97, 115

Tough midfielder Rhys Mathieson looks set to join the Suns. Half forward Callum Ah Chee will be picked up next. Midfielder Ryan Clarke will go third round and left foot academy half forward Connor West should go next. Utility Ben Crocker and forward Mason Redman could figure late.

GWS
In comes the mercurial Steve Johnson and giant ruckman Dawson Simpson plus two 2016 first round draft picks and a 2016 second-round. Out goes Tomas Bugg, Curtly Hampton, Jed Lamb, Andrew Phillips, Lachie Plowman, Liam Sumner, Jacob Townsend, Adam Treloar and and a 2016 fifth round draft pick. Only Treloar is a big loss. Bringing in Johnson was a brilliant decision.

2015 draft picks: 10, 34, 43, 53, 55, 58, 63, 64, 65, 70, 95, 102

Not only have the Giants loaded up big time for 2016 with six picks in the first two rounds but they have ten picks in the first four rounds this year and enough points to bring in midfielders Jacob Hopper, Matthew Kennedy, forward Jock Cornell, ruckman Matthew Flynn and perhaps utility Harvey Daniher if Essendon don’t get to him first. Small defender Alex Morgan could figure late.

Hawthorn
Matt Suckling and Jed Anderson make way for Jack Fitzpatrick. Nothing much really.

2015 draft picks: 15, 18, 48, 76, 112 and 130

The Hawks ageing list will see them grab utilities Daniel Rioli at 15 and Tom Cole at 18. Tall midfielder Greg Clark looks set to join the club. Midfielder Tyrone Leonardis and half forward Jake Sushames could also be included. The Hawks lack of quality defenders could start to hurt them. Mitch Brown, a mature age defender could get a call up.

Melbourne
The arrival of Ben Kennedy, Jake Melksham and Tomas Bugg gives the Dees instant impact and much needed midfield depth. Losing Jeremy Howe, Jack Fitzpatrick, Jimmy Toumpas and a 2016 first-round pick is not going to hurt them at all.

2015 draft picks: 3, 7, 46, 50, 82, 94, 100, 118

Either Aaron Francis or Darcy Parish will go first. Massive key forward Harry McKay will also go to the Demons. Gifted forward Harrison Himmelberg is next to be selected. It will be Interesting to see if they begin calling academy names early to get enough points to get father/son Jake Lovett in the fourth round.

North Melbourne
Jed Anderson in and Daniel Currie, Ryan Bastinac and a 2016 third-round pick out.

2015 draft picks: 17, 26, 28, 47, 73, 91, 109, 127

Midfielders Jade Gresham, Liam Jeffs and key forward Charlie Curnow could all find themselves at Arden Street in the first two rounds. Pocket rocket Kieran Lovell should be there or there abouts in the third round.

They should definitely have a look at Port’s discarded big forward Mitch Harvey who has a lot of upside and was never given much time to develop. Ageing key position players and the inability to replace them will hurt in the long run.

Port Adelaide
Charlie Dixon and the disappointing Jimmy Toumpas come into the club and out goes a 2016 second-round pick.

2015 draft picks: 32, 49, 86, 104, 122

Big problems with defense. Their first pick won’t deliver what they need most. Half backs Mitch Hibberd and Stephen Tahana could be on the radar in the first two picks. Not sure how they can fix their back half issues here.

Richmond
Jacob Townsend and Chris Yarran come into the side and out goes a 2016 second-round pick. Failed during the trade period. Had all their eggs in one basket and became too obsessed with the same players.

2015 draft picks: 12, 52, 88, 106, 120, 124

Sudanese Ruckman Gach Nyuon is exactly what the Tigers need. They could also go for 206cm monster Kyle Galloway with their next pick. Forward Hisham Kerbatieh is destined to join the Tigers late.

St Kilda
Did enough to strengthen the team bringing in Jake Carlisle. One wonders who leaked the story on the same day about an apparent indiscretion. Nathan Freeman was a great get losing a 2016 second-round pick in the process.

2015 draft picks: 14, 45, 68, 81, 99, 117

Midfielder Darcy Tucker is on the radar. The Saints have enough points to pick up Bailey Rice with their second pick. Midfielder Kade Answerth is a potential late pick.

Sydney
Ruckman Callum Sinclair and defender Michael Talia come in with Craig Bird, Lewis Jetta and a 2016 fourth-round pick leaving.

2015 draft picks: 33, 36, 37, 44, 54, 69, 72, 90, 108, 126

Callum Mills is going to cost the Swans big time. Their second pick could come at 69 which won’t bring much in the way of what they need. If Josh Dunkley decides to go as a father/son then Sydney will be in deficit for 2016 in a big way. Not a great trade or draft period.

West Coast
Jonathan Giles, speedster Lewis Jetta and Jack Redden replace Matt Rosa, Scott Selwood and Callum Sinclair.

2015 draft picks: 23, 31, 62, 75, 93, 111, 129

Key defender Sam Skinner will be their first choice but after that the Eagles will have to settle for depth players this year. Midfielders Luke Partington and Will Snelling will be looked at. Jordan Matera should get there via the father/son rule.

Western Bulldogs
Matthew Suckling and a 2016 fourth-round pick in for Defender Michael Talia.

2015 draft picks: 20, 21, 30, 51, 87, 105, 123

The Bulldogs may snare two ruckmen first having to choose between Mitchell King, Wylie Buzza or Andre Parrella followed by the versatile Brayden Fiorini, forwards Blake Hardwick or Keiran Agius.

The Crowd Says:

AUTHOR

2015-11-24T10:51:39+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Didn't do too bad, Got a lot of players around the mark apart from a few that came from left field, notably Doedee to the Crows.

AUTHOR

2015-11-22T22:14:57+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


*Retraction* I have been contacted by the Adelaide football club and have been made aware that Ben Jarmans draft year is in fact next year. They apologized for the information I was given both orally and on their web site. I apologize for any inconvenience.

2015-11-15T05:06:42+00:00

scottydog

Guest


love to see the Dogs pick up either Skinner or Ben Mckay to sure up our backs and with Roughy set to take the No. 1 ruck in 2016 Kyle Galloway would be a great pick up for us.

2015-11-13T04:19:58+00:00

Macca

Guest


Col - "The AFL confirmed on Friday that draft points will change as the fluid draft order does and acknowledged the incentive for academy teams to bid on rival players." Looks like we will have plenty of points to get Silvagni - our picks 59 & 60 are more than likely going to end up close to 49 & 50 so unless Silvagni gets bid on a lot earlier than expected we should have points to spare.

2015-11-12T21:49:36+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Thanks Col. The other one.

AUTHOR

2015-11-12T20:12:00+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Get well soon Don. I like Adams, I hope he gets a shot, he brings something to the table. The draft is where they will grab some good kids

2015-11-11T14:02:00+00:00

Col from Brissie

Guest


Hope your recovery goes well Don. Same knee or the other one?

2015-11-11T13:28:59+00:00

Don Freo

Guest


Edgar, I love a good little AFL draft read between cricket matches as I lay here convalescing 5 hours after my second knee replacement. I will suggest Freo got things right by not trading if there was nothing worth taking. Freo is NOT short of good young talls. They are coming on nicely and are better than Spencer White. Don't be surprised if Freo's #19 draft pick comes from the WAFL. Mature aged Marcus Adams.

2015-11-11T04:16:11+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


Goal kicking power through Aish? He'll be a good player, but I don't think he'll ever kick a lot of goals.

2015-11-11T03:57:29+00:00

Talisman

Guest


Collingwoo have Brown, Reid, Frost, Toovey, Langdon, Williams, Goldsack, Maynard & Marsh to play defence. More goal-kicking power will come thru Howe, Moore, Treloar & Aish. Midfield looks pretty solid with Pendlebury, Swan, Greenwood, Adams, Treloar, De Goey, Sidebottom, Crisp, Varcoe. Overall they seem fairly well set up, though you can't have enough ball winners.

2015-11-11T00:59:50+00:00

Col from Brissie

Guest


Tom, first up, where did you get the idea that Richmond would get the GWS picks? Under your scenario where Melbourne uses their pick 7 to bid on Kennedy and GWS decides to match it the following happens. Pick 7 under the points system is worth 1644 points, however Academy and F/S players attract a 20% discount for their nominated club. Therefore GWS must use picks that total 1315 points (discount is worth 329 points). To do this they would give up pick 34 (542 points), 43 (378), 53 (233) and pick 55 (207) which total 1360 points. The difference between 1360 and 1315 is 45 points which is then added to their next pick 58 which is worth 170 points. All picks after pick 7 then basically move back one position ie. Melbourne's pick 7 is now the 8th pick and Carlton's pick 8 becomes the 9th pick and so forth until pick 43 whereby Sydney which has pick 44 see that pick become the 43rd pick. The end effect sees Gold Coasts pick 56 become the 53rd pick. The more picks used on Academy and F/S prospects will see dramatic changes in the draft order. It is not inconceivable that Carlton's pick 8 could be pushed out to say pick 12 or 13 and later round picks actually move up 15 places.

2015-11-10T23:15:24+00:00

Macca

Guest


When you have Melbourne on record talking about tossing up between Parish, Weideman & Curnow at 3 and Edgar has them tossing up between Parish and Francis and taking McKay at 7 with Weideman getting to the blues at 8 and Curnow being in a 3 way tussle to get to North at 17 we get a bit of an insight into the quality of the mail.

2015-11-10T23:11:26+00:00

Paul D

Roar Guru


Pretty standard response from Edgar - when challenged, claim insider knowledge. I guess the proof will be in the draft order.

2015-11-10T23:09:28+00:00

TomC

Roar Guru


I would also like to express my scepticism at that particular comment. Honestly, I don't know why Edgar bothers to pretend anymore.

2015-11-10T23:01:53+00:00

Macca

Guest


That and the fact they have grabbed Dangerfield, Henderson, Smith & Selwood already.

2015-11-10T22:42:13+00:00

George

Roar Rookie


And that is precisely why Geelong isn't that worried their first pick is currently #67, by the time the academy players get taken it could be 20+ picks higher.

2015-11-10T22:08:47+00:00

Macca

Guest


Inside mail hey, we'll just wait and see how close you get.

2015-11-10T22:07:10+00:00

Macca

Guest


Tom Baulch - I am no expert on this but if Melbourne bid on Kennedy with pick 7, GWS use the later picks to make up the points and Kennedy goes to GWS, Melbourne then pick another player (with their pick 7 but which would be the 8th player picked) and the later picks used by GWS get removed from the draft. The last part is important because Sydney, Brisbane and GWS have a large number of picks between 35 & 70 acquired through trading higher draft picks and so they had the points to bid on academy players and the removal of so many of them could see another teams pick in the 60's drop down to actually be close to the 40's. I hope this helps.

AUTHOR

2015-11-10T21:47:34+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Any wonder you need a complicated computer program to work it out

AUTHOR

2015-11-10T21:46:39+00:00

Edgar Slosh

Roar Guru


Wow, Tom, this is longer than all of your articles. Again you seem to be misguided with some of then names you think will go at certain stages where as I have some inside mail on who is attracting interest at what club

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