Zipping Classic day is always a relaxed way to end the Melbourne spring carnival, especially after the hectic nature of Cup week.
As punters on this day we usually have to decide between two different types of horse in each race.
There are the Group 1 quality horses that have been racing all spring, looking for one last good run post what they’d been set for, and perhaps their first win of the campaign. And then there are the slightly lesser horses that may have been set for a race on this day, with connections hoping for an inferior field, but still able to collect a Group 2 or Group 3 win.
The Sandown track is usually fair, and we sorely need it to be the case this year after what we’ve had to put up with over the last month.
The Zipping Classic is the feature race of the day, worth $300,000 as the first of two Group 2 races. At face value it looks a race in three.
Dandino is the current favourite with the impeccable lead-up form of fourth in the Turnbull Stakes, second in the Geelong Cup, and winner of the Queen Elizabeth last Saturday. He’s been competing against the best all campaign, and is yet to run poorly.
Rising Romance has the genuine Group 1 weight-for-age form, running second in the Makybe Diva Stakes and Mackinnon Stakes, either side of average runs in the Turnbull and Caulfield Cup. She’s a top class mare, and an obvious winning chance.
Even though Who Shot Thebarman hasn’t been able to finish better than fifth in any run this prep, but he’s been taking on the best and has been racing more than well enough to win something like this. He’s run into a deeper field than usual here though, but coming into this race off a Melbourne Cup run is a proven winning formula, which is a tick in his corner.
Tall Ship is right in the market, but I’ll be staggered if he goes close, and it’s hard to make any sort of case for Don Doremo or Do You Remember. Kirramosa is the knock-out chance if there’s to be one, she’s a good horse that’s been running well in higher grade.
Selections
1. Who Shot Thebarman
2. Rising Romance
3. Dandino
4. Kirramosa
The Sandown Guineas is the other Group 2 on the card, and well worth winning with $150,000 up for grabs to the victorious connections. This is a race that fillies do well in, and can also provide an upset result.
Don’t Doubt Mamma is favourite, and understandably so given how the fillies have held sway over the colts this season, and her form is around the very best of her sex. She won with authority on Melbourne Cup day over 1400 metres, but did only run fairly over 1600 metres at the start prior, so that’s a little query.
The Carbine Club on Derby Day often provides the Sandown Guineas winner, and there’s a handful here that are coming through it.
Mahuta won the Carbine Club, albeit benefitting from the rails bias and a smart ride, but three wins on the trot must be respected, as should be the stable that he’s from.
He’ll cross from a wide barrier, but if he can do so without much effort he should be able to set a tempo to suit himself. Patch Adams was the eye-catcher from the race, eating up the ground in the drive to the line, but he’d also had favours in the run.
He’s Our Rokki had a tougher time of it, forced wide on the turn coming from last, and making good ground in the quicksand further off the fence than the other two. He might be the one to beat from the race.
Dal Cielo is the interesting runner, the only one here to have run in the Caulfield or Thousand Guineas. He started his campaign in New Zealand, and has been up and down in his distances. It’s hard to know whether he’s got another run in him, but he must be a chance.
Gredington looks the best rough chance if he can reproduce his Stutt Stakes run instead of his Carbine Club flop. Demonstrate was excellent with weight behind Palentino after doing some work on Stakes Day. He might be ready now, and looks a value hope.
Selections
1. He’s Our Rokki
2. Demonstrate
3. Don’t Doubt Mamma
4. Mahuta
There’s some great racing elsewhere on the card too with the Kevin Heffernan Stakes for the sprinters at WFA over the unusual 1300 metres trip, the Sandown Stakes over 1500 metres for the milers and the Eclipse Stakes over 1800 metres, which looks particularly deep and tough.
The Sandown Cup over 3200 metres for the stayers, including the likes of The Offer, Almoonqith, Grand Marshal and old man Precedence has the makings of a very good edition, and the mares race to finish the day over 1500 metres is always a good affair, with this being no exception.
Rightly or wrongly, I always think of this day as when horses that have raced well without winning usually get their victory, so in respective order of the above, I’ll be going for Under the Louvre, Ninth Legion, Malice, Grand Marshal and Ballet Suite.
michael steel
Guest
What a very good days racing this turned out to be. Looking at the main races Group 1 winner at $8.00 Famous Seamus beats fav Generalife. The ZIPPING CLASSIC Who Shot the Barman who has been running well but not being in the money wins at $4.00 Casino Dancer at the great odds of $13.00 wins at Group 3 having been placed at Group 2 last week (I wasn't on her) Mahuta wins 3 in a row now , this time at $5.00 ( I wasn't on her because of the enormous knock given to her by the Channel 78 racing team, learnt a lesson their) The Sandown Cup, isn't it great to have to quality staying events in this meeting. The first 3 Almonquith, The Offer and Grand Marshall, all Fro the Melbourne Cup and all very reliable horses and Finally top weight and Group 1 runner Solicit gets up as top weight in the Summoned stakes at $5.00 I came out a tiny bit ahead but I'm sure there was the odd punter who really nailed it yesterday.
ryan
Roar Rookie
Great analysis Andrew. Divan into Dandino last week. And today, Famous Seamus (I had a lot more on Generalife who flew home) and Solicit. Well done, have loved your wraps all year. And thanks for all your wraps this year too, Cam. Once you were also on Divan into Dandino last week, I loaded up. And today I loaded up on WSTB, thanks mate! MC form all the way. What a ride by JMac. Pace was slow, he said not again, and pulled their pants down. Booyah!
steve
Guest
Thanks Andrew...great analysis as always. i would have been one of those ruling a line through solicit had it not been for your thoughts! Very glad i didn't!!
Haradasun
Guest
nice one andrew!! thanks for that! put it all on mamma!
andrew
Guest
MV tonight (good meeting complimented by perth test makes for an enjoyable evening, better still I hear harry potter is on, so will set up a tv in the kids room, mardi is welcome to watch the races/cricket with me if she wants some ‘company’, her call !!) 4- Marrakesh has come back well this prep and burst through late after being held up last time, sign of a horse going that she wanted to take the gap and had the acceleration to do it. Took a while to break through, but bumped into some handy ones, but her career is starting to take shape, after being a high price yearling. In a race of likely high speed, hoping she can repeat the dose here at a nice ew price 6 –Grane. One of my fave horses last 18months, just so honest, and there is a clear formula as to when he strikes, which prevails here. Basically he needs a high pressure race (guaranteed), a track where you can swoop (rail true MV) and an inside to mid-draw which means he isn’t having to circle the entire field, but isn’t going to be full hemmed up on the fence. In these high pressure races when the field fans for the home bend, he can shoulder out, coming inside 2-3 or runners – saving a bit of ground, but because he has the turn of foot – he can pick up that straight line speed quick enough to get over the top if the tempo is hot. It’s a perfect scenario for this eventuate tonight. Sand 2 – Change Sister. Not really a tip, but an observation of one I will have a soft bet on. On the week the moment of change leaves us (a very talented horse who served me well and one of the last form line links to black caviar) his full younger sister comes to town, at big brothers pet trip of 1400m. 3 – Famous Seamus. Pretty keen he will run well. been absolutely luckless in his melb runs to date. Both times carrying big weights from wide draws in rails dominated races when he was either trapped wide all run (caul) or tried to circle field at flem on derby day (ie, mission impossible). His 2 syd runs prior behind winx (giving it 5.5kgs) and terrvista (level weights) are very credible. A somewhat unknown and under-rated horse down here in melb, but his best is def good enough and trainer says horse is going super well. of course, under the louvre beat him at caul, but there is a 3kgs weight swing and under the louvre had the better. Still, under the louvre did beat it easily, so its not mean feat to turn the tables. Just wonder how much more under the louvre has to give this prep given its clear target race was back in sept and it resumed in mid-aug. a soft run last time prob helps. Generalife clear 3rd pick. The race end there. Im backing famous ew, and prob have a reverse exacta with louvre or generalife to beat it into 2nd. But you can play this race with quins/exactas and even a box tri with this trio and im pretty confident they will fill the first 3 placings, just a matter of what order, as not much between them as their ratings and formlines suggest. 6 – Scream Machine building up to a win for smerdon this prep after a good 2nd on Seymour cup and then doing as well as possible in a farcially run race on cup day over 1800m. one can only imagine a more genuine tempo here which will give him a chance to break through. Whilst it’s a wide open race, not many chances for mine. malice, worthy cause, scream machine. 9 – Solicit. 90% of punters who do ‘glancing’ form will simply put the pen through once they see 59kgs and wide draw. Firstly to the draw, love wide draws at these sand starts with such a long run to 1st bend. This race has good speed too, so field will break up, or if they don’t go hard and all look at each other, she goes to the front comfy. solicit will not be trapped 3 wide or ‘working overtime’. It’s a non-issue. Im actually preferring a wide draw cos mc evoy can pick his spot to some extent. If anyone is caught 3 wide it will be the dill drawn gate 5, 6, 7 or 8 who thinks they will just ‘slot in’. 2nd to the weight. A lot of these come through the scarlett billows race on melb cup day. Solicit was 1st up on caul cup and beat scarlett billows 2l giving it 2.5kgs. one would not only think she is going to be better/fitter for that run, but she meets scarlett billows better at weights for beating it (similar applies to tycoon tara through same race). So please don’t fall for the line she is poorly weighted. On the contrary, I think she is well weights. She gives 4kgs max away, but I don’t think those on 55kgs (highest rater on 55kgs is 80) are her serious rivals here. Rather, her rivals are horses she concedes 1kg or 2kgs to. She also beat she’s clean up in bris last winter (1l, 2kg swing she’s clean, evens it up). She is of course the only horse coming back from the G1 myer into this. Just like politeness was last year when she won. Far from disgraced in the myer, even though she was in better part of track, and her 1st up run at caul was ripper. One would think being 3rd up she is not over the peak or at end of prep, and I think the market has overlooked her and she is a great bet at $10, in once again what is an open race, but in think of not a great deal of chances (scarlett billows, shes clean). Ballet suite a hard one to assess as she is blinkers first time but then drawn wide to basically go back to last, somewhat contradictory to purpose of blinkers and was scr from a 2000m race last week and now in at 1500m (she probably goes in, but its an odd mix). ADl 4 – royal guard. Strong swooping win from the back on debut and looks another smart one for stokes to run through the grades in ADL, step up to 1400m ideal. Some handy form amongst rivals should ensure a price. 5 – Held Hostage. Just a run first up, but up in trip and down in class and extra fitness create a good scenario. Impulse diavola been getting beaten in weaker races, going well, but large jump in class. The fave is running well this grade, but finding one better and cant have any improvement left. Got beat easily by defiant angel last run in an almost identical scenario whereby defiant angle was 2nd up for stokes of a moderate 1st up run. Think same will happen here. Good value at north of $4. 7- Dr Dapper. Best of the day for mine. huge win last time when jumped well, but had to concede back to last from wide draw, circled the field, had a lot to do at the 200m, and charged to the line to get up. meets 6 other horses from that race here and I don’t think they can turn the tables. Goes up 2kgs, but draws for a much better run this, and will use the gate to sit in its usual spot right on the speed. That win was no shock as its first up run in a stronger grade was just as good. that day it beat mr backchat by about 4l (2kg swing backchats way) and beat it fair and square (nothing in stewards report). I find it astonishing that mr backchat has somehow opened up fave ahead of dr dapper on not only that clash, but the subsequent win of dr dapper. Mr backchat is a chance, but not sure why is $2.50 and dr dapper $5. 8 – Quick Lover, was a huge run at MV last time charging to the line the last 100m and her run prior was similar after no luck 1st up. she is ready to win and step up to 1400m is ideal for her now. been a while out of winners stall, but signs this prep in all 3 runs are that a win is coming and at $8 I wont be missing out and she is graded to achieve it. Dunk 8 – caves looks an absolute moral in the last. Just waiting for an early market to open. He should be odds on form. Drops back from runs in mortlake cup and st arnud cup where the horses who beat him ran quin in Ararat cup last sun. suffice to say, the form is panels above this 58 race. Was entered for the dunk cup, but they take the easier option, presume to just ‘get a win’ on the board. Jack martin takes 3kgs off, so he gets in min weight, and martin is riding well at present. 2 wins from 38 is the worry, but none of these are any good. Best: dr dapper, solicit, grane Multi: grane (place), dr dapper (win), solicit (place) comes to about $30/1.
Razzar
Guest
Thanks to Emirates day, the track came back to what is expected in a reasonable racing surface. So confidence in the punt rising. Looks a very competitive meeting. I have to back up on Eximius from last weeks unfortunate late scratching . The Sandown stakes looks wide open. But good speed, can allow fit horses to run on. I've marked Eximius 7/1. R9 the Summond Stakes, doesn't have good speed, but possibly blistering'. Love how Into The Mist is going. On wrong part of track last start. She can run well, and possibly win. But I rate her a 12/1 chance. In this very prickly mares race. Let's hope the the track races like the great Sandown of the past, where winning from anywhere was always possible. Good lukk Punters.