Great wrap, Cam. Given Hartnell has flagged his intentions to run from a long way out and make it a truly run race, all Winx now needs to do out of the barrier is find his back and follow. In that case, Winx will easily win the sprint around the final turn. Not only does it bring Winx into it, but Lucia Valentina too especially if it’s wet.
I think Godolphin tried to get too cute. They should have ran Hartnell in the Caulfield Cup and won it. Now they’re going to win neither the CC or the Cox Plate………. in my opinion anyway!
Goodl uck all punters, I’m backing Winx and also have some on the exacta into Lucia Valentina if it gets wet enough. Looking forward to your Manikato wrap tomorrow, Cam.

I think it atleast LOOKED like gut buster for Libran last week on the sticky track down the straight. They did dawdle at first but Libran had to hike 58kg (drops to 54kg for this) in the glup and he looked to battle in the final 400m to get the win. Has it taken it out of him? I’m not sure but I’m not willing to back him.

This Sydney Cup field is as uninspiring as a Julia Gillard speech. I’ll go Grand Marshal as this is his peak race (WSTB was BMW), and has the class. I just feel last weeks race was a gut buster so can’t have Libran but won’t be surprised to see him win either. Respect for Gallante, but this race does nothing more than fill up Waller’s wallet!
I really like Miss Rose de Lago at her price in the Queen of the Turf. But can she handle a soft track? She’s had three runs on soft. Her first ever race for a 5th. A 2nd, and her 3rd on soft she failed after firing up in the barriers in the Myer. So the jury is out. What do you think, Cam?
I also like Badawiya. Barrier 18 hopefully means Newitt slots her 2 or 3 wide with cover a few pairs back. Randwick barriers at 1600m aren’t vital I don’t think. Atleast then Newitt shouldn’t be forced coming back on the inside like he did on her last start instead of the pace wider. But I just have no confidence with Newitt in the saddle. She’s a class filly.

Again, terrific analysis BrisburghPhil. Winx is unders for sure. You get the same price on her as last start, but this start she gives up weight to every contender? I can’t figure out how she’s so short.

Cam, do you know why Berry And Dunn changed mounts? Does one jockey pull rank at that stable? Did Hawkes kick Dunn off Chatauqua after his last start 3rd? Just wondering, seems very odd, might be something to it…..

The TJ is interesting. I see no initial speed on inside barriers until OBM in barrier 6. There’s not much in the whole field. So he should get an easy lead. Chautauqua is better suited here at WFA but I prefer him fresh, and Exosphere…. well. He has the class to sit off the back of OBM and easily overpower him, but will it happen on the day or will JMac get jammed in somehow? I think Exosphere should win, but OBM at 20-1 is value considering he’ll get a soft lead without much other initial pace in the race.
Yankee Rose in the Slipper was outstanding for a 1st up run. A massive standout for mine, but did you read Purtons comments after that race? He thinks he could have won except for the whip rules preventing him from giving her a nudge earlier! What the……? The whip rules are idiotic, but for goodness sake Zac, if I were an owner I’d be screaming at him, “Pull out the whip early! I’ll pay your fine, throw you a sling, just win the damn race!” I think Yankee Rose is a good thing, but I’ll just watch this race I think. Throw in Seaburge as your 4th pick and I think you’ve got the First4, Cam (Hayes said Seaburge was his best 2yo).

Fantastic analysis BrisburghPhil. MV at 1200m is barrier important and your analysis topped me off nicely. I’m taking the barrier 1,2,3 trifecta. BUt Kinglike and Flamberge on top of Scarlett Billows. Kinglike is lightly raced, ratings going up, Flamberge has had a month to get the juice back in the legs and I loved the way Scarlet Billows hit the line over 1100m last start. Good luck all.

I think you’re onto a winner Cam. Don’t want to jinx you, but Tom Melbourne, into Tally, into Shiraz…… Shiraz ticks LOTS of boxes. Loves the track, distance, soft, 2nd up. Yes please! I’ve got the quinella with Fell Swoop as well as you but I really hope Shiraz comes in for you. Although if Malaguerra runs then all bets are off. Good luck mate.
Flying Artie in the Slipper for me. Can spank EC if both get equal running and Price said he’ll run more forward tomorrow. Needs much less luck.
Lay Tarzino in the Guinneas. First run in Sydney, gate 2 in a big field and he likes to get back, Sydney traffic really is horrible. Jameka and Vanbrugh for me. And Shards is OVERS.
Winx is also a lay at her current price. Minimum $2 in that field.
A ripping days racing, enjoy!

Well done last week Cam. Selenia and Tom Melbourne were two specials thrown in on the non Group 1s, good work!
I have the same trifecta on the Australian Cup, but leaning towards Our Ivanhowe based on his last run.
I’ll take Counterattack in the Newmarket for the odds. Waller horses always run well down the straight, he has no weight, Bossy on board. Japnisme the threat. I’ll risk Chautauqua this week with the bigger weight.
And more tips for other races this weekend Cam? I reckon Revolving Door will beat home Seaburge again for the exacta at Flemington.

I agree with you, Cam. Firm tracks, sun shining, likely favorites day again for mine. I’ll put the quinella on Our Boy Malachi and First Seal in the Canterbury Stakes so I don’t have to think about which will win. PS just wins the Randwick Guinneas. The Aus Guinneas is much tougher. It’s very hard to go past Xtravagant, but the next best runners are tough. Palentino has been primed for this race. Being drawn wide is a positive but his odds seem short considering the quality field. River Wild seems to have value. Had a terrible start last which gave him no chance, could be hard to run down if the track favours front runners. Risque is a Group 1 winner and did very well last start, but a case can be made for plenty. Enjoy the racing!

Great analysis again Cam. For me, the Futurity is a lottery. I can make a case for 6 or 7 horses so I won’t touch it. If I could back “6 horses to finish within a length” at decent odds I would bet on that. Really looking forward to it though.
I REALLY like Heatherly in the Oakleigh. OK, she won’t get it so easy up front as last start, but she should be up there again. Her time last start was outstanding and can anyone compete with that when she gets let down? Brisburgh Phil had some interesting points about roughies and wide barriers, but I think she’s something special.
Winx just wins in Sydney, but I like Mongolian Khan for the exacta, and will in fact put the quinella on and HOPE MK comes in 1st. Hartnell was unlucky in the spring and was terrific last Autumn so I’ll have him in the trifecta.
I really like Our Ivanhowe but would be keener if the track was a soft 5, I’ll watch that race.
A ripping days racing tomorrow!

Thanks for the analysis Brisburgh Phil. I was unaware of those statistics and they are very interesting, some were completely unexpected (average price $14 and 1 winner inside barrier 4). I have Heatherly on top as well. She is something special and I can only see an side barrier for her style of race being a good thing. Her time last start was ultra impressive and if she gets to the front I can’t see anything running her down besides track bias (if there is any on the day). I had Heatherly and Keen Array as my two but will now include Fell Swoop on the back of your analysis.

I just can’t wait. I won’t have abet on this, but assuming to track is fair I can only see two winners. But down the straight at Flemington anything can happen…… argh! Can’t wait.

Can’t wait for this race. I can forgive Exosphere getting beat in the Coolmore last year, the track bias was disgraceful and he wasn’t on the Highway. He looks like he’s come back very well this prep and MacDonald staying in Melbourne to ride him. But how can you go past Chautauqua? Has the form on the straight at Flemington, ready to fire 1st up over 1000. 1: Chau, 2: Exo, 3: Terra. Can’t wait!

Welcome back Cam. On the whole racing debacle thing, I support RV and the 30 minute gaps. Just need the others to follow suit (as you say, wouldn’t a national racing body work well on that?!)
How hard is the Orr to pick first up? A big, quality field. I’m going Lucky Hussler and Boban. Lucky Hussler because the 8 barrier seems perfect (Bossy shouldn’t get stuck on the fence) and has had a (very good) run, and Boban because he loves it 1st up and from watching it trial he looks sharp. Respect the field so I’m betting midget.

Nice work Andrew. I was on Durendel, into Weinholt, then I put it into Good Project in the Railway Stakes following the same form lines. Good Project dropped 4 kg odd, form franked, good track, Williams aboard, Waller trained. My goodness it ticked a LOT of boxes………. And whilst I was against Buffering in the Winterbottom, well done you old warhorse.

Great analysis Andrew. Divan into Dandino last week. And today, Famous Seamus (I had a lot more on Generalife who flew home) and Solicit. Well done, have loved your wraps all year.

And thanks for all your wraps this year too, Cam. Once you were also on Divan into Dandino last week, I loaded up. And today I loaded up on WSTB, thanks mate! MC form all the way. What a ride by JMac. Pace was slow, he said not again, and pulled their pants down. Booyah!

Haha, thanks Norton Bit and Cam. Well there you go, Arod can’t handle the wet, don’t know what I was looking at. Bring on the beer and pizza!

It’s rant time………. We can all do our research, form lines, jockey we like, whatever. The way this carnival has been with the tracks, it means NOTHING unless your horse finds its way onto the “highway”. I’ve been altering my punting to try to predict which horse can find the highway and hold position as opposed to who is the most likely to win the race based on “typical” analysis. What a farce, it’s wrecked the best racing of the year for me.

I’ve been beaten up with these tracks. Flemington usually stands up quite well, it’s killing me. I’ve also got no confidence in my bets, Cam.
I’d be all over Amovatio if it was dry, but seeing it’s slop I’ll go with Arod. Loves the mile, Williams aboard. Just needs a good jump from the wide gate to get up front without using much juice. It’s a risk but it’s been duking it with some of the world’s best over a mile and doing well. What a tough race to pick.
I’m risking Chatauqua tomorrow. He’s the easily the best horse, but these tracks……. I’ll be on Delectation and I’ll also have a low confidence punt on Boban. He goes very well first up, can handle the wet. It is a bit short for him, but the heavy track will make the race feel longer than 1400. Waller-Schofield has won as many Group 1s this spring as Waller-Bowman.

Thanks Cam. Yes, Caulfield Cup form all the way for me. I was just waiting to see what the track was rated before I jumped in. No rain, Trip To Paris. I have a feeling a lot of women will be winning with their $2 E/W bets this year with a name like that (my Mum for instance!) Or at least I sure hope they will.

Thanks for the run down, Cam. Well done on getting through every race! The Waller-Bowman combo looks like it’s got quite a few trading unders (including Flamingo Star, I admit). Lizard Island had a tough run out of the gate in the Caulfield Classic and rode on well. Don’t like Etymology with MacDonald on board?
Royal Descent never got let down in the CC, she’s got plenty of gas left. I have doubts on her on firm ground, but that was somewhat dispelled from her run in the Turnbull. If Stay With Me wasn’t in the race with 49kgs, I’d be all over the $6 as she’s a class above the field. I’m just going to back them both and the quinella.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s tips, Cam! You didn’t mention Flamingo Star in the Mackinnon. Ran on well after a soft run in the Toorak. Hugh Bowman on board. Certainly not without hope. Contributer’s connections have been complaining about the firm tracks all spring. Unless the track gets a good soak before the jump I just can’t have it.

I was at Randwick when Hartnell started the Sydney Cup at $2. Didn’t quite run out the 3200m in soft going then. I’m the same as you and sticking to the CC form for the MC for now. WSTB and Fame Game. And if there’s showers then also Our Ivanhowe and Grand Marshal. But let’s see what this Saturday throws up first!

Great article Cam. You could see by the afternoon many “front runners” odds were coming in hard before their races. Strawberry Boy and The Cleaner to name two. And Winx who had the inside gate. So the rail bias wasn’t lost on the punters, the smart ones adjusted their strategy and good on them. The losers are the punters who got on early, but that’s the risk you take.
The disappointment from my, and I think Cam’s point of view, is that we didn’t see all these top, top horses racing on an equal basis in one of Australia’s great races because of outrageous track bias.