2015 Winterbottom and Railway Stakes: Preview and tips

Perth’s big day of racing always provides some highlights, and is made all the more interesting by the good Perth horses being matched against some hand-picked opposition from the eastern states.

The Winterbottom Stakes honour roll is of seriously talented horses, and it has provided two of the classic races of the last 10 years – in 2013 when Buffering just outlasted Moment of Change, and 2008 when Takeover Target and Apache Cat fought a two-horse war down the straight.

This year’s race looks one where the five main chances should fight it out, and while it may not even be that many, there is a chance that something on the periphery could even sneak up to snatch it.

Buffering is the rightful favourite at $3.80, and in some ways that seems like well over the odds.

He’s been exceptional this campaign, winning the Moir Stakes first-up, the next best run of the race behind Chautauqua in the Manikato second-up, and then only half a length of Delectation and Chautauqua in Australia’s best sprint, the Darley Classic.

We know he travels, we know he’s class, and we know he’s going to be awfully tough to beat.

Fast N Rocking has been well backed around the country in the last week for this, launched into second favouritism. He’s always been a nice sprinter, but not quite Group 1 weight-for-age material, so a Perth race is probably his best chance of landing one.

It’s arguable the best two runs of his career have been his last two, so he’s in the right form, and while he did beat Buffering home in the Manikato, the race was more set up for him than his rivals. He’ll run well, but does appear unders.

Waterman’s Bay occupies the next line of betting, having not finished outside the quinella in his last seven Perth starts, including second in this race last year off the back of a Melbourne spring campaign of little impact.

He’ll get back from a wide barrier, but a big field and genuine speed will suit, and he’ll be flying home to be somewhere around the mark.

Good Western Australia mare Magnifisio was Waterman’s Bay’s conqueror in the Winterbottom last year, and is coming off an incredibly similar preparation this time around, and is possibly going even better. Jumping from the outside gate is the biggest slow on her chances.

Lucky Street is the lone three-year-old in the field, and is finding life tougher than in his two-year-old season, when he routinely blew his opposition away. He’s been taking on the older horses this time around though, in benchmark handicaps, and now gets some weight relief under these conditions.

He should roll forward from barrier 12 to make the use of his light weight, but you’d be brave to suggest he could outdo Buffering in a speed battle and then be the last man standing.

Shining Knight has run well in the last two Winterbottoms, and will likely do so again while finding a few better. Rommel looks a good rough bet, first-up since February when winning a handy Caulfield Group 3. There’s a case for Rock Magic at double figures too, there isn’t a lot between these second tier Perth sprinters. Liberty’s Gem can sneak under a few guards also.

Dawn Approach is the best bolter at an outrageous 60-1. Forgive his last start as he’s not a 1400-metre horse, and his form this year is plenty good enough to run a drum.

There looks to be genuine speed on paper, with four natural leaders and a few others that look to be right there. Between them they could break the race open and give nothing else a chance, or otherwise set it up for the best closer.

Selections
1. Fast N Rocking
2. Waterman’s Bay
3. Buffering
4. Rommel

The Railway Stakes is the other big race feature on the card, and while it may not be the deepest edition we’ve ever seen, it should still be a quality race.

Black Heart Bart has won his last seven Western Australia starts, and nine of his last 10 in his home state. He was tested at Group 1 level when he travelled to Adelaide and Brisbane earlier in the year, running exceptionally in the Goodwood, before failing in the Stradbroke as a long summer campaign took its toll.

He hasn’t been winning by big margins in his three starts this prep, but he’s looking to peak here. He’s had five starts beyond 1400 metres for no wins, so the mile trip has to be some query, particularly with the big weight.

Delicacy holds favouritism over Black Heart Bart at this stage, having returned well after making a name for herself cutting a swathe through the Western Australia and South Africa staying trips as a filly last season.

She meets Black Heart Bart two-kilograms better for finishing on his heels in the Lee Steere Stakes first up, and should be more suited by the step up in trip. Barrier 15 will make things tricky though, so Pike is going to have to make good decisions early.

Real Love is another that has strung together wins in his home state, winning his last four in Perth either side of not disgracing himself at WFA in the Melbourne autumn. If we look back to November last year, we see he was right with Black Heart Bart at level weights in the Ascot Carbine Club, so the four-kilogram swing must work in his favour.

Good Project is the other horse in single figures for the Railway, and while there’s nothing in his record that demands you back him, his last start was one of the runs of the Flemington carnival, coming from near last with a big weight to run second to Malaguerra on Cup day, a horse which then won again on Stakes day. And let’s face it, having Chris Waller appear next to his name is no harm either.

Of the other interstate raiders, Messene appeals as a value bet, no longer having to chase the likes of Winx, Royal Descent and Disposition home, and this is very much his distance. Mr Utopia has some talent, and a repeat of his Winter Championship run in July, splitting Amovatio and Coronation Shallan, both subsequent winners in the Melbourne spring, would see him in the mix at big odds.

The rest of the Perth horses look an even lot, so there is some value around. Hazzabeel might be the pick of those, especially if he can cross from a wide gate and lead with relative comfort, as he did last week in the RJ Peters when he gave nothing else a chance.

The horse that started short-price favourite in that race, Battle Hero, couldn’t quite reel in the leader, but he appeals as the best roughie at big odds, sure to get a cosy run and a few more things in his favour than last week.

Selections
1. Delicacy
2. Messene
3. Real Love
4. Black Heart Bart