Rugby World Cup: State of play and future forecast

This is an overview of the recently completed 2015 Rugby World Cup in England, with some analysis of the way things panned out and the possibilities for the future as we countdown to 2019.

The wonderful thing about the Rugby World Cup is the build-up to the tournament proper, with the early completion of the draw finalising the participants in each pool playing a major part.

The results and form of the various Test-playing nations in the lead-up to the World Cup was also a major source of excitement.

We had Ireland in 2015 winning the Six Nations, which heightened the possibilities and excitement both for Irish supporters and northern hemisphere supporters in too. As 2003 was the first and only sip from the champagne cup for the north, the drinks were considered well overdue, especially for an Irishman!

To win in 2003, the English had the quality players, a clear strategy, and the organisation and management to support them. Was this trifecta in place for any northern team in 2015?

In the south we had a chink shown in the All Black armour in Sydney in the Rugby Championship, with the Wallabies winning well with the ‘two flyer’ strategy using Michael Hooper at No.7 and David Pocock at No.8.

This was a promising build-up for the Wallabies after their moderate efforts on the November 2014 end-of-year tour to the north, where only Wales could be defeated. England, Ireland and France proved a step too far at that stage, though there was some promise and hope in those close losses.

Michael Cheika had only just taken the reins after the disastrous Di Patston-Kurtley Beale saga and the demise of Ewen McKenzie, who fell on his sword. The 2014 Super Rugby coaching triumph for the Waratahs was Cheika’s platform, yet the 2015 dual-coaching role for the NSW Waratahs and Wallabies was criticised in many quarters.

As it turned out, Cheika managed the Wallabies side of the equation quite brilliantly, getting buy-in for the disparate groups of differing Super team players to replace the internecine warfare from the recently closed McKenzie era. Good team spirit was the result, and results started to reflect that change in culture.

So much so that even New Zealand commentators were talking about it, as well as labelling the Wallabies as a potential threat at 2015 Rugby World Cup.

The Rugby Championship saw the acceleration of the rise of Argentina, with a defeat of the Springboks in South Africa opening the eyes of the rugby world. And it wasn’t just the win, but the manner of the win that was so impressive. That form continued at the World Cup until their demise at the hands of Australia in the semi-final. Ireland, the erstwhile pride of the north, had been summarily despatched in the quarter-final, and New Zealand given an extremely tough opener as well.

Argentina are playing like the France of old, such as in 1987 when Serge Blanco and Patrice Lagisquet were brilliant runners from anywhere on the field. Has the Top 14 seriously diminished the French Test team’s efforts? Much has been said about the large numbers of foreign players playing in the Top 14, particularly for teams such as Toulon.

Foreign player numbers may need to be wound back to a maximum of five at most and perhaps as low as three, as well giving young French players minutes, before we might see France challenge again.

France did make the 2011 Rugby World Cup final, and lost 8-7, with multiple chances to win in the second half unable to be converted. While that sounds tragically unlucky, what they would have given to have Serge Blanco on the field!

In 2007 they knocked New Zealand out in the quarter-final, and in 1999 they beat New Zealand in the semi-final. So 2015 was their worst Rugby World Cup performance so far, and the manner of their losing was dismal indeed.

New Zealand won so easily, it was more like a training run against a minnow. The French set-piece remains strong, and mostly the defence has been good bar that quarter-final, but there is not the flamboyance of old that could turn a game. What a shame that is. Can they show something in the upcoming Six Nations tournament?

This year there has been great criticism of the haste with which the pools were drawn, largely because of the famous ‘Pool of Death’, which contained too many teams ranked in the top 10. Australia, England, Wales and Fiji were all in the top 10, with only Uruguay being relatively lowly ranked.

It was indeed the ‘Pool of Death’ for the host nation, as England stumbled against Wales after attempting to sit on a slender lead, and was then put away by Australia in the Wallabies’ best performance of the tournament. Was it a killer blow for the tournament itself? No. While it would have been better if England had made the semi-final at least, the tournament was fantastic.

The atmosphere around that England-Australia Test at Twickenham was electric because of the possibilities. An England loss would be their demise, while Australia would have to beat Wales if they lost to make a quarter-final and a tough match against the Springboks.

England could not even envisage a loss, it seemed, so confident were they projecting themselves, with a big press beat-up for them as well. When the Wallabies shut the crowd out with two brilliant tries in the first half, the panic was everywhere among the English players and supporters.

It was then obvious that Stuart Lancaster and his coaching regime would inevitably have to go. The England Under-20s can win the Junior World Cup, and England has the largest player base, yet their Test team underperformed with not much in the way of a coherent strategy.

Eddie Jones has now been appointed to take over as England coach, and it’s an excellent choice for them. I can’t wait to see the Six Nations start, but it may be a bit too soon to see drastic changes. However, personnel will change for sure, and Danny Cipriani is a probable starter at No.10, with Chris Robshaw probably not in the mix.

It takes time and sustained effort to change a team’s playing style, because it has to become part of their DNA to enable instinctive decisions. When to run? When not to run?

The Springboks suffer similarly. They can deliver fantastic attacking structures, but in the second half in the semi-final against New Zealand they froze and allowed a potentially winning lead to be squandered by having the one strategy of ‘kicking the ball to the shithouse’ to paraphrase Bob Dwyer.

That lack of variation merely gave the ball back to New Zealand. Could the South Africa defence hold out a New Zealand team with such a potent attacking DNA? No. They had to play to win, but could not bring themselves to do it. New Zealand dodged a bullet there.

Cheika was awarded Coach of the Rugby World Cup, but his efforts in moulding the Wallabies in a short period of time from November 2014 through the 2015 Rugby Championship and into the World Cup must have been considered as a whole.

I sensed some panic in the Wallabies selections at times, with the perseverance with Israel Folau, even though his ankle clearly wasn’t up to it, being the prime example. Beale played brilliantly so there was a ready replacement, but it didn’t seem as though Cheika could bring himself to risk it. Persevering with Pocock against Wales after he incurred the calf injury seemed foolish as well.

For coaching at the Rugby World Cup itself, Jones coaching Japan to three wins out of four in the pools and just missing out on a quarter-final spot was phenomenal. And Scotland were pretty lucky to catch Japan with a very short interval after their spectacular defeat of the Springboks in their opening match, as well as the Scots having the luck of the Irish so to speak.

So Eddie has to be first choice, unless you plump for the winning coach Steve Hansen, whose ability to have his team at their peak on the day of the final looked a lot like a Bart Cummings-trained Melbourne Cup winning effort.

Cheika deserved third spot, though, and one of his best traits is his ability to learn, so he’ll note how Hansen trusted his squad and had his team peak for the final.

The 2015 Rugby World Cup in England was being touted as the “best ever” even prior to the start. It probably was, because it was indeed was fantastic. Now we rugby followers have a patient wait until the Six Nations starts, followed by a new Super Rugby season and then the Rugby Championship 2016.

The Top 14, Heineken Cup etc. in the north are a big part of the mix of course. All these events are part of the build-up for the 2019 Rugby World Cup in Japan. How exciting is that?

So what might happen to the rugby-playing nations in this lead-up period? New Zealand was so professional in their plan management and execution. They are the gold standard the other teams must follow and hope to better, and that’s off the field!

On the field, it is still the quality of players that counts, and New Zealand have been blessed with the talent and commitment of Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, and in more recent times, Ma’a Nonu. In fact Nonu is possibly their major loss. All three will no longer be turning out for New Zealand, and replacements will have to emerge. It remains to be seen whether the same quality can be found.

Argentina is in the Super Rugby 18 in 2016 and the team is probably very similar to their Test team. Watch out Super Rugby opponents, because they look a lot like tournament favourites to me. That is also going to mean that Argentina will be a formidable presence at the 2016 Rugby Championship, and could cause enough trouble to challenge for the title.

It’s a new era for the Springboks, who look good when they run the ball, with Handre Pollard, Damien De Allende and Jesse Kriel being genuine stars. But will they attack as a plan, or just as an afterthought, and fall back into more conservative habits?

The Wallabies are a mixture of old and new, so a number of changes are likely to occur. Adam Ashley-Cooper and Matt Giteau won’t be there, while the new captain Stephen Moore will need to show that he should be in the team via strong 2016 Super Rugby performances for the Brumbies.

Moore is looking slow, even ponderous, and is a liability in defence sometimes, particularly when he sticks his head in a breakdown without noticing what is actually going on. For example, the Nonu try in the World Cup final just after half-time.

Tatafu Polota Nau made a big impact when he came on, and the difference was noticeable. Nathan Charles may regain his 2014 form, while Tolu Latu could leapfrog the lot. James Hanson is in the mix as well, and looked good for the Barbarians when he came on, once again making Moore look the lesser by comparison.

Pocock is a ready-made replacement captain, and Cheika doesn’t have to worry about the politics of overlooking Hooper for the captain role since he no longer coaches the Waratahs. Some new young locks could emerge as well. The centre positions are up for grabs at the Wallabies as well.

Ireland’s golden era, blessed with a bunch of great players, has probably begun to peter out, so the Six Nations looks a road too hard for them. A rebuild for 2019 depends on the quality of the replacements, a bit like New Zealand. The All Blacks are always the favourite, so the replacements will be good, but for Ireland it is more problematic.

Wales impressed in the 2015 World Cup, with their commitment, talent, playing style and roster depth. Watch out for some impact in the Six Nations from them. They could take the title.

Jones will get England up for the challenge, and could get something happening sooner than might be expected. They could fight Wales for the Six Nations title.

Jones knows that tries have to be scored to win, Japan certainly played that way. Converting the English instinct for conservatism will be the hard part. In 2003, the set-piece was very dominant, and Jonny Wilkinson could do it all at No.10 running the show, with finishers out wide to seal the deal. That’s probably the trajectory of the Jones gameplan.

Scotland is looking improved, and can attack successfully now, so Vern Cotter has done well. More to be done to really threaten though.

Italy needs a thorough rework. We want this to happen, though, because being Six Nations also-rans is not helping the northern hemisphere cause. There are glimpses, and it is not a lost cause.

And then there’s France, the enigma. On their 2015 Rugby World Cup quarter-final form they might run last in the Six Nations, but that won’t happen. They won’t be in the mix to win it either, but will beat Italy and probably Scotland, and maybe even Ireland. The control of their domestic game is the key to a French re-emergence.

The Pacific Island nations often get grouped as such, but these days it is Fiji first and a widening gap to Samoa and Tonga. That is probably likely to continue and perhaps even accelerate. Fiji draws its players from overseas playing rosters, which limits any local development. They do a marvellous job despite that holding them back. They can hold their spot around the bottom of the top 10, but are unlikely to rise too much higher.

So, it’s chocks away for the build-up for the 2019 Rugby World Cup, and the spills and thrills along the way will be fabulous. Rugby fans have never had it better, and so it should be for the game that’s played in heaven.