In the past decade, the mid-season coach change has become the single biggest signpost of the parlous state of on-field affairs for clubs around the bottom of the ladder.
Since 2009 alone, 12 coaches have been given mid-year marching orders. Two of them are named James Hird.
But heading into 2016, I’m ready to make a big call, not unlike a head coach: each of the AFL’s current head coaches will see out 2016.
Removing a coach in the middle of a season is fraught with all sorts of costs, both visible and invisible. The real costs often run into seven digits; so-called ‘restructuring costs’ that appear as hard evidence of mistakes made by the powers that be in AFL clubs.
Essendon took a restructuring charge of more than a million dollars (lumped into employee expenses in their annual report) after removing Hird, while Carlton had a similar, unexplained increase in employment costs following Michael Malthouse’s departure.
Clubs don’t get better instantly, either, which is a somewhat counterintuitive outcome. Part of the rationale for removing a coach mid-year is that his tactical nous has waned, or the players aren’t ‘playing for him’.
When I ran the numbers from 2009 to 2015 following the Malthouse sacking, I found that the winning percentage of teams that had moved their head coach on mid-season was exactly the same as the winning percentage of the team prior to removing the coach.
The head coach is an important position, but there are 100 to 200 people employed at football clubs these days – change at the top doesn’t bring change everywhere else. Where a change in the head coach department is often viewed as the end of a process, it is, in fact, often merely the beginning.
Last season was something of an outlier in the moved on coaches department. Hird’s sacking was – well, do we need to go over this again? Malthouse probably stayed a year too long, but the whole leadership of that club needed a good clean out. The tragic events surrounding Phil Walsh are the very definition of an outlier in this context.
Those moves came hot on the heels of a remarkable number of somewhat more orderly coaching changes in the two years prior: the top of the pyramid changed at Adelaide, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Melbourne, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs between the off-season of 2013 and start of the 2015 season. That’s 11 of the league’s 18 clubs, including last season’s changes.
It means there are just five head coaches with expiring contracts as calendars flip over to 2016: Brisbane’s Justin Leppitsch, Collingwood’s Nathan Buckley, GWS’s Leon Cameron, Hawthorn’s Alastair Clarkson, Melbourne’s Paul Roos and Richmond’s Damien Hardwick.
| Team | Current coach | First season | First signed | Last signed | Expires |
| Adelaide | Don Pyke | 2016 | 2015 | N/A | 2018 |
| Brisbane | Justin Leppitsch | 2014 | 2013 | N/A | 2016 |
| Carlton | Brendon Bolton | 2016 | 2015 | N/A | 2018 |
| Collingwood | Nathan Buckley | 2012 | 2010 | 2014 | 2016 |
| Essendon | John Worsfold | 2016 | 2015 | N/A | 2018 |
| Fremantle | Ross Lyon | 2012 | 2011 | 2014 | 2017 |
| Geelong | Chris Scott | 2011 | 2010 | 2014 | 2017 |
| Gold Coast | Rodney Eade | 2015 | 2014 | N/A | 2017 |
| GWS | Leon Cameron | 2014 | 2012 | N/A | 2016 |
| Hawthorn | Alistair Clarkson | 2005 | 2004 | 2014 | 2016 |
| Melbourne | Paul Roos | 2014 | 2013 | N/A | 2016 |
| North | Brad Scott | 2010 | 2009 | 2015 | 2018 |
| Port Adelaide | Ken Hinkley | 2013 | 2012 | 2015 | 2018 |
| Richmond | Damien Hardwick | 2010 | 2009 | 2013 | 2016 |
| St Kilda | Alan Richardson | 2014 | 2013 | 2015 | 2018 |
| Sydney | John Longmire | 2011 | 2010 | 2014 | 2017 |
| West Coast | Adam Simpson | 2014 | 2013 | 2015 | 2019 |
| Western Bulldogs | Luke Beveridge | 2015 | 2014 | N/A | 2017 |
I say five, because while Roos’ contract is technically up at the end of the year, that is by mutual agreement. His three-year stint at Melbourne, which is coming along swimmingly (number one draft picks withstanding), ends on November 30, 2016, at which time Simon ‘I got out of Essendon just in time’ Goodwin takes over.
Goodwin’s takeover is the last of the league’s handover contracts to turn over, following a strange period at the start of the decade where they were all the rage (Buckley, Cameron and John Longmire rose to power under similar circumstances).
But which of those remaining five coaches would expect to enter the 2016 season without another deal, stretching at least one more year, on the table?
Clarkson will almost certainly remain Hawthorn’s head coach, unless he decides that this AFL thing is a little too easy after winning a fourth straight flag in 2016. Are there any vacant coaching gigs in the NRL?
Cameron looked set to be the first new wave expansion side coach to steward his team into the finals, before injury wrecked the Giants’ 2015 season. He will most certainly receive a contract extension before March, and is an outside chance to be extended out to the end of 2019, much like West Coast’s Adam Simpson recently was.
Buckley is about halfway through his job at Collingwood, and the calls to remove him as coach coming from segments of the fan-base ring as hollow as the Pies’ bank vault (or the opposite of that). He would also be a candidate for a three-year extension, which would take him to 2019 and smack bang in the middle of Collingwood’s premiership run. The noises out of the Westpac Centre have been nothing but positive.
That leaves Richmond’s Hardwick and Brisbane’s Leppitsch. According to the footy tabloids, there is “a lot of media scrutiny” on these two gentlemen heading into 2016 (the irony must be lost on this mob).
Hardwick is the second longest current tenured coach in the AFL, behind Clarkson at Hawthorn, having taken the reins from Terry Wallace in 2009. He, like Buckley, can claim that his job is only half finished.
Everyone points to the three straight finals campaigns that resulted in three straight-sets exits when it comes to analysing where the Tigers are at. This ignores both where the Tigers have come from – a thoroughly Terry Wallace’d list – but also where Hardwick has taken the yellow and black.
Excluding the 2014 season, when the Tigers limped out of the gates only to find their feet with nine rounds remaining, Hardwick’s team has seen an increase in its percentage every year during his tenure.
Last year, the Tigers were a win away from making it into the top four, after a season which saw them emerge as the most likely defensive unit to pinch the miser crown from Fremantle in the years ahead. Sure, there were points of frustration, but by the end of Round 23 some statistics (Pythagorean expected wins) had Richmond as the fourth best team in the league (ahead of Fremantle, who had fallen to fifth).
Richmond aren’t an old team, either. Their 45-man roster is the 11th oldest (or eighth youngest, if you’d like) in the AFL, behind Collingwood, West Coast and Carlton. They sit eighth in terms of games played, too.
There’ll be many more words written (and spoken) between now and March 24, but from this far out, it’s clear Richmond are by no means at their peak. A more mature regime off the field will surely look to sign Hardwick for at least another year past the 2016 season, if not two, so he is given the chance to see out his vision. Indeed, that is what has been reported in recent days.
A reasonably tough draw, which includes double-ups against Hawthorn, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Collingwood and Essendon, and two trips to the west – although it also includes 14 games at the MCG – may make the road to a double chance in 2016 difficult. But the Tigers are in with a chance, which will see Hardwick through another year or two.
Then there is Leppitsch – and this is where the no-coaches-moved-on situation could get a little hairy in 2016.
Two years into an initial three-year deal, Leppitsch (44 games) is the third longest tenured coach in the history of the Brisbane Lions, behind Leigh Matthews (219) and Michael Voss (107). His winning record of 25 per cent is the lowest of the three, and is worse than the 37 per cent winning record of the four other guys who have led the Lions in their time north of the border.
It’s been as tough a start as any head coach in recent memory – excluding the two expansion sides.
Precious few Ws, a player exodus and reported disharmony off the field belie a list that is chock full of quality talent through the middle of the ground. Brisbane are a proof point for why key position players get paid lots of money: it doesn’t matter how good your midfield is, if there aren’t tall people to kick the ball to inside the stripe (and to stop the opposite from happening down the other end) it can all amount to naught.
There have been injuries, too. Tom Rockliff (16 games played), Dayne Beams (16) and Pearce Hanley (11) missed big chunks of the 2015 season, while Daniel Rich and departees Jack Redden and Matthew Leuenberger were absent for much of 2014.
In an interview on Melbourne radio earlier this week, chief executive Greg Swan said 25 players have left the club since Leppitsch took over, which is more than half a full list.
That’s a lot to deal with, but it doesn’t end there. Off-field, the Lions have seemingly sorted their stuff out for now, but that comes after a year or two of covert war among powerbrokers, and with League HQ. The club lost $3.5 million in the 2014 football year, marking the club’s sixth seven-digit loss in the prior seven years.
All of this is to say Leppitsch hasn’t set the world on fire, but that is in no small part because the world was already smouldering around him.
Swan’s interview revealed that Leppitsch’s future had been discussed at board level, and it would not be put off until his contract expires at the end of the coming season. He would not be subject to arbitrary win KPIs, and stressed that what the club needs now is a period of stability. It’s pointing to an imminent re-signing, but Swan has also been careful in his language – this is the guy that brokered the Malthouse-Buckley apprenticeship contract, so he knows what he’s doing.
For what it’s worth, I’m taking Swan’s words, and the parlous state of the administration Leppitsch has overseen, at face value. It may not happen this side of Christmas, but I expect Leppitsch to be re-signed as coach of the Brisbane Lions for at least one more year, and possibly two.
But there are strong, overwhelming even, arguments to let Leppitsch coach out his current deal and move on. Indeed, this is the vibe surrounding the chief of the Lions.
Like the Tigers, the Lions have a deceptively young list: just seven players have played 100 games, and a mere seven of their 44 players were born in the 1980s (oh yes). The pedigree of the playing list is less than ideal: after the exodus of recent years, Brisbane have just four first-round draft picks signed on, and two of them were drafted a fortnight ago.
As above (and as per earlier this year), the talent Brisbane have assembled is strong, and deep.
There is no Patrick Dangerfield ‘Batman’ necessarily (although Rockliff, Beams, Hanley and Rich is a strong core four), but there are many ‘Robins’. But they are evidently a few moves away from building a team with deep talent at the top of the list. If recent history is anything to go by, Josh Schache and Daniel McStay have a few years worth of development ahead of them.
The lingering question for Brisbane’s administration is whether Leppitsch is the coach to take the team through its current phase, and help mount a charge up the ladder in, say, three or four years’ time. Regardless, an answer will be found in the 2016 season, and under the new, Greg Swan-led regime, Leppitsch will be given the time and space of 22 games to mount his case.
Either that or the recent trend of premature separation will continue and Leppitsch will be removed in the second half of the year. I don’t see this as the base case, but a very poor start to the year (say, two wins from 12 games, which is feasible given the Lions’ draw) may force Brisbane’s hand.
There is, after all, “a lot of media scrutiny” on the men in charge in the AFL.
Paul D
Roar Guru
I don't think it's wins and losses that they'll be looking at. The key areas for the Lions next year are - Squad development - lot of attention will be paid to how the younger players are coming on - Effort - can't have these last quarter blowouts anymore, the side must look to run out the games - Gameplan - enterprising football has to be played - the clubs rising up the ladder are teams like the Bulldogs & Saints, who play fast, attacking football. The handball-heavy style by the Lions needs to evolve and eventually be replaced. I think Leppitsch's success in those areas will play a big part in the assessment of his fitness to continue in the role. If you look at the first two months anyway, our opponents are Eagles (A) Kangaroos(H) Geelong(A) Suns (H) Bulldogs (A) Swans (H) I can only see us winning the Suns game, realistically - and maybe not even that, Gold Coast have got much bigger and better talls than us. We could definitely snag an upset, but I also wouldn't be at all surprised if we were 0-6 after that start.
Dylan Matthews
Roar Guru
Surely Leppa is under some severe pressure heading into next season. 11 Wins and 33 Losses is barely passable as a coach who took over the Lions the year after finishing 12th in 2013 and ending the season with 6/9 wins on the run home. The Lions went from 15th in 2014 down to 17th this year with ten of these losses coming over 50 points. Yes he was dealt with an injury plagued squad in 2015 yet players continue to want out a Brisbane and Leppitsch's name has been mentioned a number of times as a major reason for this mass exodus. The first two months of next season will be crucial if he is to lead the Lions any further, with at least three wins being a necessity or else I can guarantee the Lions will wave him goodbye.
Don Freo
Guest
I don't.
dave
Guest
i think pies get one more flag with malthouse. i think blues top 4 with ratten. i think freo one flag with harvey.
The Original Buzz
Guest
Tall soldiers are a mark for bullets, Tall footballers mark footballs.
The Original Buzz
Guest
It is a point that the media seemed to make a big deal of but I don't really care where he came from, as long as he can take the team forward. His past successes certainly make him a very good candidate and I think he will do well. Bolts has had a good apprenticeship under Clarko and I think he will be good for the job. He has a good panel of coaches and the board are right behind him so he has all the support he needs to succeed. I think the recent drafting has been really good and we will see success with them in the near future. As Richard Branson said, if someone offers you an opportunity too good to refuse, take it and learn as you go. (or words to that effect). I have done the same myself in the past. I do agree with your comment "No doubt being an AFL player is a very good thing to have on a head coach CV, but there is no way known that I would consider it an absolute pre-requisite for becoming one." Many coaches with a high pedigree have failed (Malthouse with Carlton) and some have come from seemingly nowhere (Beveridge and Simpson springs to mind) to take a team into finals. Players don't always make the best coaches, it is those who can inspire and lead that do. I think that goes for any role including the CEO of an ASX listed company or the SAS.
Macca
Guest
"I cannot see how anyone can expect a club to draft a whole bunch of kids,completely forgo any experienced players or leadership and then think these young players will slowly develop into great footballers and leaders" Who in the world is expecting that?
mattyb
Guest
I have to agree with some of your points here Rick.I also question the way the term re build is mentioned.To write off a complete season in the name of a re build is unacceptable,to say we will be good in five years is unacceptable.If teams choose to go about complete re builds though,there could also be a right way and a wrong way.I cannot see how anyone can expect a club to draft a whole bunch of kids,completely forgo any experienced players or leadership and then think these young players will slowly develop into great footballers and leaders.Mediocrity breads mediocrity and losing habits can be hard to change.
Don Freo
Guest
They only "got" Eade because everyone else had no interest. Eade was the default coach.
Don Freo
Guest
One thing is very clear, Andy. You know very little about almost everything you post about. Rubbish every time.
Horace
Guest
Ryan New carlton coach with those credentials...
Penster
Guest
"because you got a Dorothy Dixer from penster about Clarko." Oi! Was not.
Macca
Guest
"The values I “project onto Carlton” are certainly not what your club’s PR department are letting out" No the values you project on to Carlton are ones of your own bias (probably built up through the battles of the 70's and 80's) and stereotypes, they have no relationship to the actual values of the club. "In the past when I’ve asked Carlton fans to describe their culture they say “one of being the best.” That would seem more like club PR pre-LoGiudice, maybe you could clarify that one for me." Exactly -those supporters are just parroting the PR line, just as you Parrot the "family club" line someone in the PR department dreamed up years ago. But again not every supporter has the same values - the key ones are largely shared through shared experiences and shared PR buter supporter has slight differences and also every club is largely the same for a supporter "culture" - the sense of belonging - it is only how that culture is dressed up. As for Clarko - he is just as likely to choose any of them as any other club, he would look at the playing list, see what he has to work with and his chances of success and wiegh that up against the contract being offered - he will back himself to mould the "culture" of the players and not give a toss about that of the supporters. As for players being cleaned up - the senior players themselves have stated this in interviews - and I thought you knew you clubs culture.
Paul D
Roar Guru
Why should we justify where Clarko would choose to go? The only reason this whole debate started was because you got a Dorothy Dixer from penster about Clarko. You’ve spent all your time since then waxing lyrical about how marvellous Hawthorn and Clarko are, and isn’t it just wonderful how good they are and what a good environment it is. All this over an utterly hypothetical one liner about a coach who has shown no signs of going anywhere.
andyl12
Guest
The values I "project onto Carlton" are certainly not what your club's PR department are letting out. In the past when I've asked Carlton fans to describe their culture they say "one of being the best." That would seem more like club PR pre-LoGiudice, maybe you could clarify that one for me. I know that some of you might be sick of this discussion, but it would be a shame for you if it had to end without you give me the slightest reason why Clarkson would choose any of those five clubs over Hawthorn. It would also be nice if you could name some of the youngsters that were reportedly cleaned up by senior Hawthorn players, and maybe provide the evidence by showing that they missed reserves games for a number of weeks afterwards.
Macca
Guest
COl - I'm just a bit bored today.
Macca
Guest
Andyl12 - " I’m not going to reply to your last paragraph because I flat out disagree with you on that." You can disagree all you want but it is true you have absolutely no idea about the culture inside the club. Supporters project the values they want on to a club (or often reflect what the PR dept says the club is) and while a lot of those values similar amongst supporters of that club they aren't universal and they aren't unique but more importantly the culture that the supporters foster or believe they have has absolutely no impact on the performance of the team and has no inmpact on the decisions of coaches or players looking to arrive at a club. And yes the Hawks have done a lot of things well in the past decade but that is no guarantee of future success or of a culture that will span the decades, just as they had a lean 15 years post 1991 they can easily have a lean decade or so post 2017. as for the blues if after they have replaced a significant portion of their board, their president, their CEO, their recruiting manager, almost their entire coaching staff, the most first round picks in their history and 15 players off their list you only see a word then I don't think you have much comprehension of change. "Oh yeah and Carlton have had 6 coaches since '91, Hawthorn 5. Carlton have had 6 coaches since 2000, Hawthorn 2." Thanks, this perfectly illustrates that the culture of both clubs is the same "stick fat when things are going well and you have a good list (the blues through the 90's the hawks post 2005) and sack the coach when they aren't".
Col from Brissie
Guest
Macca, my suggestion to you is not to try and engage andyl12 in any sort of dialogue about Hawthorn and culture as he/she seems to think he/she knows about everything about Hawthorn and the culture of every AFL club. One word sums up that sort of thinking - delusional.
andyl12
Guest
Macca- I'm not going to reply to your last paragraph because I flat out disagree with you on that. As for your analysis of Hawthorn's ebbs and flows, yes we've had our low points and we've made recruiting mistakes, but we've always been the family club whose fans felt welcome and looked after and whose players felt a sense of solidarity and professionalism was behind them. We were mature enough to know from the start that the Tassie deal was good for us- at the time many other Victorian clubs saw Tassie as a symbol of our inability to survive in Melbourne but those same clubs now (especially Melbourne) are wishing they'd taken up Tassie when they had the chance. Similarly, we were smart enough to hit the MCG once Waverley was sold from underneath our feet- I know some Carlton fans who now wish they'd done this instead of persisting at Optus Oval and being left with no choice once relocation became inevitable. We traded smartly to get the Hodge draft pick. And had we been Melbourne we would've lost Hodge and Mitchell through incompetence to more professional clubs after a few years. The evidence of this is there for all to see- and yes, Paul Roos admits that the tanking culture still hurts Melbourne. The only change I've seen at Carlton the last 12 months is that LoGuidice uttered what used to be Carlton's dirtiest word- Rebuild. Whether or not your fan base will embrace the word remains to be seen. Oh yeah and Carlton have had 6 coaches since '91, Hawthorn 5. Carlton have had 6 coaches since 2000, Hawthorn 2. Regardless of your reply, these are all things that a coach considers when they decide what club they want to coach at. Same goes for when free agents decide where they want to play.
Macca
Guest
PaulD - I can't find anything specific but it is a pretty well known fact that the likes of Brereton, Dipper et el were very tight and liked keeping each other in the team so if one of them was coming under pressure from a young bloke they would clean him up at training.