Late last year, I looked at the Australian conference in the new Super Rugby format, going through the squads of each team and analysing how everyone might fare now that there are more teams and different match-ups.
Not to shy away from a challenge, nor to exclude readers of The Roar who would rather hear about their own nation, I will continue the analysis by breaking down the New Zealand conference.
My intention is to provide the facts and then add my two cents about the respective teams and the season.
Blues
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: 14th
Projected finish in New Zealand conference: fifth
Players in: Quentin MacDonald (Chiefs), Hoani Matenga (Wellington), Gerard Tuioti-Mariner (North Harbour), Tanerau Latimer (Toshiba Brave Lupus), Kara Pryor (Northland), Billy Guyton (Crusaders), Sam Nock (Northland), Reiko Ioane (Auckland), Rene Ranger (Montpellier), Male Sa’u (Yamaha Jubilo), Matt Duffie (NRL: Melbourne Storm)
Players out: Greg Pleasants-Tate (Highlanders wider training squad), Angus Ta’avao (Waratahs), Tony Woodcock (retired), Keven Mealamu (retired), William Lloyd (Auckland), Culum Retallick (Rebels), Hayden Triggs (Leinster), Chris Vui (North Harbour), Luke Braid (Bordeaux), Brendon O’Connor (Leicester Tigers), Airi Hunt (Auckland), Jamie Booth (Manawatu), Jimmy Cowan (Tasman), Jamison Gibson-Park (Hurricanes), Daniel Bowden (Bath), Simon Hickey (Bordeaux), Pita Ahki (Hurricanes), Hamish Northcott (Manawatu), Francis Saili (Munster), Matt Vaega (North Harbour), Frank Halai (London Wasps), Charles Piutau (London Wasps)
Extended playing squad: Afa Fa’atau, Joe Edwards, TJ Faiane, Piers Francis, Michael Little, Scott Scrafton, Jordan Trainor, Namatahi Waa
The Auckland faithful are still trying to figure out what went wrong for the Blues in 2015. Blessed with a mix of youth and experience, the attack-based Blues could out-run and bump off most defences when given the ball and a bit of space, but for whatever reason they just couldn’t click.
Admittedly, someone has to lose and in a pool with four other New Zealand teams, it’s never going to be easy no matter who you are. It doesn’t get easier with Angus Ta’avao heading to the Waratahs and stalwarts Tony Woodcock and Keven Mealamu – centurions of both Test and Super Rugby – retiring.
The list of quality players leaving is too long to repeat, so I’ll ask to revisit the list above to reiterate just how depleted the stocks were for the Blues before signing new players.
The experience of Tanerau Latimer, Male Sau and Rene Ranger will be invaluable, all of whom should leave a mark on opposition defences. The arrival of younger, less experienced talent – such as Reiko Ioane and Matt Duffie – should also prove helpful, but too much attention has been paid to beefing up the outside back stocks.
Injuries to the forward pack will prove very costly in a squad where the starting team differs greatly from the bench and rest of squad.
The biggest change up has been All Black great Tana Umaga taking over from another legend, John Kirwan. What experience and tactics Umaga can bring to this team will make or break, but I for one am keen to see what he can do.
Expect improvement, but no finals yet for the Blues.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Charlie Faumuina
2. James Parsons
3. Ofa Tu’ungafasi
4. Steven Luatua
5. Patrick Tuipulotu
6. Akira Ioane
7. Tanerau Latimer
8. Jerome Kaino
9. Billy Guyton
10. Ihaia West
11. Reiko Ioane
12. George Moala
13. Rene Ranger
14. Ben Lam
15. Lolagi Visinia
Chiefs
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: fifth
Projected finish in New Zealand conference: first
Players in: Nepo Laulala (Crusaders), Atunaisa Moli (Waikato), Nathan Harris (return from injury), Dominic Bird (Crusaders), Mitchell Karpik (Auckland), Tom Sanders (Canterbury), Taleni Seu (Auckland), Tawera Kerr-Barlow (return from injury), Glen Fisiiahi (NRL: New Zealand Warriors), Toni Pulu (wider training squad), Chase Tiatia (Bay of Plenty), Sam McNicol (Hurricanes)
Players out: Jarrod Firth (Counties Manukau), Jamie Mackintosh (Southland), Ben Tameifuna (Racing 92), Quentin MacDonald (Blues), Michael Fitzgerald (Leicester Tigers), Matt Symons (London Irish), Mitchell Crosswell (Taranaki), Ross Filipo (Racing 92), Liam Messam (Toshiba Brave Lupus/7’s), Sean Polwart (Auckland), Liam Squire (Highlanders), Hosea Gear (Clermont), Bryce Heem (Worcester Warriors), Tom Marshall (Gloucester), Tim Nanai-Williams (Ricoh Black Rams), Marty McKenzie (Crusaders)
Extended playing squad: Stephen Donald, Siegfried Fisiihoi, Rhys Marshall, Shaun Stevenson, James Tucker, Latu Vaeno, Sam Vaka
Again, the Chiefs look like the real deal and will be pushing for a finals berth amidst the toughest conference in the competition.
It’s easy to look at their mountainous list of players leaving and wonder how they could field a team, but a lot of those players are being replaced by some equally exciting talent, or just weren’t in the Chiefs’ best 23 anyway.
The biggest losses are versatile backs Tim Nanai-Williams and Marty McKenzie, who combined can each cover nearly the whole backline. The other setback is that Liam Messam, Augustine Pulu and Sonny Bill Williams are all involved in Sevens program this year, so it’ll be telling how much of their respective seasons they will play at the Chiefs (in Messam’s case I don’t think he’ll play at all).
Nepo Laulala and Dominic Bird have been brought across from the Crusaders, two superb players to have in their ranks, and with Taleni Seu, Chase Tiatia and Tom Sanders plucked from the ITM Cup, depth and development won’t be a problem for Dave Rennie’s men.
Here’s hoping Aaron Cruden can remain injury-free this year. If he can, I’d back the Chiefs to topple near anything in their path.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Nepo Laulala
2. Hikawera Elliot
3. Pauliasi Manu
4. Dominic Bird
5. Brodie Retallick
6. Taleni Seu
7. Sam Cane
8. Michael Leitch
9. Tawera Kerr-Barlow
10. Aaron Cruden
11. James Lowe
12. Charlie Ngatai
13. Seta Tamanivalu
14. Chase Tiatia
15. Damian McKenzie
Crusaders
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: seventh
Projected finish in New Zealand conference: fourth
Players in: Michael Alaalatoa (Waratahs), Tim Boys (Southland), Peter Samu (Tasman), Marty McKenzie (Chiefs), Richie Mo’unga (wider training squad), Ben Volavola (Waratahs), Sean Wainui (Taranaki), Sione Fifita (Counties Manukau), Mitchell Hunt (Auckland)
Players out: Nepo Laulala (Chiefs), Dominic Bird (Chiefs), Richie McCaw (retired), Luke Whitelock (Highlanders), Billy Guyton (Blues), Willi Heinz (Gloucester), Dan Carter (Racing 92), Colin Slade (Pau), Tom Taylor (Toulon), Nathaniel Apa (Canterbury), Nafi Tuitavake (North Harbour)
Extended playing squad: Jed Brown, Israel Dagg, Mitchell Dunshea, Leon Fukofuka, Jack Goodhue, Tim Perry
Did you read the ‘players out’ section? What else can I say about this team?
No Richie McCaw? No Dan Carter? Is this even the Crusaders?!
Fear not Crusaders supporters, you’re not in trouble yet. Sure you’re losing six All Blacks, but those players couldn’t last forever, and Todd Blackadder is building for the future with a host of great ITM Cup players as well as a replenished stock of fly-halves following the mass exodus of anyone that’s ever worn the 10 jersey.
While I’m not expecting an appearance in the grand final, the Crusaders are always there or thereabouts come the end of the season. With a Test-capped tight five, inspirational skipper Kieran Read still leading the pack, and a dangerously quick and over-sized backline, there’s nothing too much for this team to fear.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Wyatt Crockett
2. Codie Taylor
3. Owen Franks
4. Luke Romano
5. Sam Whitelock
6. Jordan Taufua
7. Matt Todd
8. Kieran Read
9. Andy Ellis
10. Ben Volavola
11. Nemani Nadolo
12. Ryan Crotty
13. Robbie Fruean
14. David Havili
15. Marty McKenzie
Highlanders
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: fourth
Projected finish in New Zealand conference: third
Players in: Siua Halanukonuka (Tasman), Luke Whitelock (Crusaders), Liam Squire (Chiefs), Matt Faddes (Otago), Rob Thompson (Canterbury)
Players out: Ma’afu Fia (Ospreys), Kane Hames (Tasman), Pingi Tala’apitaga (Bay of Plenty), Joe Latta (Gloucester), John Hardie (Edinburgh), Nasi Manu (Edinburgh), Scott Eade (Southland), Shaun Treeby (Wellington), Trent Renata (Tasman), Kurt Baker (Taranaki)
Extended playing squad: Jackson Hemopo, Craig Millar, Greg Pleasants-Tate, Fumiaki Tanaka, Sio Tomkinson, Teihorangi Walden
The Highlanders have the greatest challenge of all: no one likes a team winning consecutive Super Rugby titles, so they’ll be marked men all tournament. The good news for their supporters is that this doesn’t faze Jamie Joseph or his incredible squad.
With a forward pack featuring no All Blacks, it’s hard to imagine how they could be so dominant, but the way in which this team worked together shows you don’t need to be a household name to cause damage. This also helped them retain the bulk of their players, making a back-to-back finals appearance a strong possibility.
The biggest losses are Nasi Manu and Shaun Treeby. This isn’t to discredit the other players – Kane Hames and John Hardie, in particular, were fantastic for the Highlanders – but losing an experienced co-captain in Manu and a hard-working, behind-the-scenes player like Treeby will be a lot harder to replace than just whacking in two new players.
Fortunately, the Highlanders have made smart transfers over the off-season. Expect to see a hotly contested battle for the backrow spots – when you consider the players coming in, the ones listed below and the likes of Gareth Evans, James Lentjes and Dan Pryor still to be utilised, the options are nearly limitless.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Brendon Edmonds
2. Liam Coltman
3. Josh Hohneck
4. Alex Ainley
5. Mark Reddish
6. Elliot Dixon
7. Shane Christie
8. Liam Squire
9. Aaron Smith
10. Lima Sopoaga
11. Patrick Osborne
12. Jason Emery
13. Malakai Fekitoa
14. Waisake Naholo
15. Ben Smith
Hurricanes
Place at the end of 2015 regular season: first
Projected finish in New Zealand conference: second
Players in: Loni Uhila (Waikato), Hugh Renton (wider training squad), Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi (Taranaki), Pita Ahki (Blues), Ngani Laumape (NRL: New Zealand Warriors)
Players out: Tolu Fahamokioa (Hawke’s Bay), Ben Franks (London Irish), John Schwalger (Wellington), Brayden Mitchell (Southland), Jeremy Thrush (Gloucester), Adam Hill (Wellington), Chris Smylie (Benetton Treviso), Frae Wilson (Wellington), Rey Lee-Lo (Cardiff Blues), Ma’a Nonu (Toulon), Conrad Smith (Pau), Sam McNicol (Chiefs)
Extended playing squad: Leni Apisai, Michael Fatialofa, Jamison Gibson-Park, Willis Halaholo, Tony Lamborn, Hisa Sasagi, TJ Va’a
The Hurricanes have a lot to prove. After finishing top of the table in 2015, they lost to the Highlanders in a spectacular grand final, which featured the two best and most consistent teams of the competition. However, unlike the Highlanders, the Canes have seen a host of players leave their squad.
All Blacks Ben Franks, Jeremy Thrush, Ma’a Nonu and Conrad Smith are all gone, with the centre combination the most damaging. On top of their departure, heir to the throne Rey Lee-Lo, who spent a fair amount of time warming the bench for these two All Black greats, is also heading overseas, so the backline combinations are sure to get a mix-up.
Less attention has been paid to the fact that both Chris Smylie and Frae Wilson are departing – skilled scrumhalves who could slot into other Super Rugby teams as a starting 9.
These losses have been addressed, but it’s still a shame to see such talent leave.
A few big transfers aside, this team still looks strong, dominant and fast in the forward pack, and the tried-and-tested halves combination has a range of powerful and agile outside backs to link up with.
Look out for Nehe Milner-Skudder to continue improving, as well as a great contest between James Marshall, Jason Woodward and Cory Jane for a spot in the backline. You know you’ve got talent when some of those names have to miss out.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Reggies Goodes
2. Dane Coles
3. Jeffery Toomaga-Allen
4. Mark Abbott
5. James Broadhurst
6. Vaea Fifita
7. Ardie Savea
8. Victor Vito
9. TJ Perenara
10. Beauden Barrett
11. Julian Savea
12. Willis Halaholo
13. Matt Proctor
14. Nehe Milner-Skudder
15. James Marshall
Be sure to keep posted for the two African conferences to follow.
Like always, I welcome all comments and feedback on which teams you like the look of, and whom you’d pick in your preferred teams.
wardad
Guest
A very minor glitch in some excellent and detailed articles . Kudos !
taylorman
Roar Guru
Now Umagas talking of AB coach? Please. Win something first... Anything! Pretty sure no Blues coach has gone onto AB coach in the last 13 years so id recommend succeeding there first!
wardad
Guest
Dont you want to see the best playing each other ? If you arent playing the best how do you improve ?
ABasquefan
Roar Rookie
I didn't know about this Laumapi but another to take into account to fill the void left at canes' centers is Willis Halaholo. He's very strong also, around 105 kg, and has been the defense crasher and breaker for Southland the last 3 seasons. But the young with more potential of the canes is IMO Vaea Fifita. He was really impresive last ITM season. Very similar to Ioane in phisycal constitution and style of play, I hope he's given gametime in an overloaded backrow plenty of quality with Vito, Shields, Blade Thomson, Gibbins and Ardie Savea besides Fifita.
ABasquefan
Roar Rookie
If Samu can translate his ITM cup form with Tasman, and mainly that of the beggining of the season, to SR, the saders' backrow is going to be impressive. With Akira Ioane (who already has shown what is capable of at SR level and has the words AB written all over him) and Vaea Fifita (outstanding prospect, let see if he can have gametime in a quality and jam-packed canes' backrow) were the inform and outstanding loosies of the last ITM cup. I'm awaiting to see also Mo'unga playing at flyhalf, he has tons of potential and after 2 excellent ITM seasons it's time to step-up. It would probably have been better to make the transition coming from the bench with someone like Slade starting but won't be possible and he will have to take the full responsability if he's choosen to start (but IMO he's the one). Another very good prospects are Goodhue and Sean Wainui at centers. Goodhue was excellent in the U20 WC showing some good skills and an excellent rugby brain even playing at wing. A pity that he's injured for a long time and probably this won't be his season. Wainui is a strong center, already 102 kg with 20 years, but who reads pretty well the plays and defends excellently.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Hurricanes have the same problem in the midfield that Crusaders have in the flyhalf position in that every option pretty much left in the one hit. I think the Canes have an awesome squad, plenty of firepower in the backline, but I'll be really interested to see if any of the imports can fill the massive shoes left by Ma'a and Conrad. There have been a lot of league imports this year, so I'm keen to see Laumape and others such as Duffie (Blues) and Robinson (Tahs) and the like and gauge how they contribute to their respective teams. With players ranging from Folau, Hunt, Burgess and Benji Marshallm it's hard to tell how the success in league will translate to Super Rugby level
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Agreed Kuruki, that's the reason why I have such faith in the Chiefs. They were really affected by injuries last year though; they'll need to retain the bulk of the starting team for the majority to the season to really fire.
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
I've only seen limited amounts of Trainor, but I'll be keenly watching to see him get a crack at the next level. With it being the year after a world cup, I think a lot of new players will be unveiled and spark some energy into the new super rugby format right from round 1
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Hurricanes. Very interesting situation in the midfield. Pita Ahki is a very solid player and one who i think will slot straight into the starting side for round one. The exciting talent for me is Ngani Laumapi, he was a star player in schools rugby before heading to league so he knows the game well. He is almost a body double for Nonu. Really looking forward to watching his progress. Tony Lamborn is another to watch, he is hard as nails reminds me of Lack lam just not quite as explosive with his pace but just a ball of power.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Highlanders. Liam Squire and Whitelock are good additions to the side especially if Squire can unleash his talent at the next level, he should be ready for a huge season. Will be interesting to see if the Highlanders pack can do the job again this year because they have the backs to shred everyone.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Crusaders. There are two names that excite me in the new inclusions for the Crusaders. Peter Samu and Sione Fifita. Fifita is a big fast, strong outside back who has not quite lived up to his potential yet but has plenty of it. He will give them another option to go with Nadolo outwide. Peter Samu is one of the most exciting ball carrying forwards in NZ, he was someone i was praying the Chiefs were going to sign. I think we are going to see the future of Crusaders backrowers unleashed this year with Taufua and Samu a menacing combo.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Chiefs. The pack is where it's at for the Chiefs this year, they have a really strong pack imo better for the lack of Liam Messam. 1. Manu 2. Harris/Elliot 3. Laulala 4. Rettalick 5. Bird 6. Bardoul 7. Cane 8. Leitch That is a workman like pack. Can't wait to see how the new back recruits go so much potential.
Kuruki
Roar Guru
Blues. Look out for Jordan Trainor to get his opportunity and nail it. This kid is exactly what the Blues need, one of those clever talents that could become the glue to hold together some of the most explosive backs in New Zealand rugby. Look for him to be one of the big movers of the next few seasons, with a Damien Mackenzie like rise through the ranks.
wardad
Guest
That big booming boot of his is a huge asset to any team ,he may have been left out of the ABs last year but I would be loathe to write him off given the games he did play . Most teams would love to have him in their squad including Test sides .
wardad
Guest
Oh mah gahhd T-Man ,a Blues man eh ? Now I know where that imperishable core of yours was forged ,quenched in the tears of a thousand regrets over these many ,many sad seasons.... Nah just taking the mickey mate I love all Kiwi teams ,just have somewhat more love for the Mighty Chiefs having been born and bred by the Mighty Waikato ! Even have me Father -in-laws cow bell for the appropriate atmosphere inducing sound effects .
wardad
Guest
Seems to me that whats good for the ABs is good for NZ rugby in general . Results in both tiers speak for themselves of late .
RobC
Roar Guru
Im the world's worst tipster, Mitch. In any case, for me its Lions, Highlanders, Brumbies, Canes
Rugby Fixation
Roar Guru
Thanks RobC, who are you tipping as the front runners this year?
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Mitch. Nice wrap.
ABasquefan
Roar Rookie
thanks for the info. I made some research and found that he's expected to be playing around the first weeks of April. "On Dagg’s form of 2015 it’s probably not a big loss." well, or you didn't watch the Super Rugby games he played or you are very wrongly remembering. He was in an excellent form, in the form of his life comparable in my view whith his form in his second year with the landers or his first with saders. And the stats are there to prove it. in 4 matches and a half (had to leave his first game before halftime) he scored 2 tries, gave 1 assist, run 526 metres, made 8 clean breaks and beat 15 defenders. If he had played the whole season at this pace his numbers would have been more than outstanding being at the top in all the parameters. "if he takes off after the 2016 season" it would be a huge loss for the AB and the NZ rugby. He's still one of the 3 best FB in the world with Smith and Folau and the best tactical kicker in the world. If I was Hansen and Ben Smith get injured I would like to have Dagg playing in NZ