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As we wind down and celebrate the year that was, I can’t help but feel jolly. Not because of the festive season – that’s fine and all, but no – I’m jolly because each day that passes is a day closer to the start of Super Rugby!
As an avid Wallabies supporter and all-round rugby lover, the inclusion of the Kings (South Africa), Jaguares (Argentina) and Sunwolves (Japan) has made me all the more excited for the commencement of the 2016 season.
It’d be foolish to say this new format doesn’t have flaws. Certain teams don’t play each other throughout the season, some teams will miss out on facing entire continents even, but I’m looking at this new system with an overdose of optimism.
The format banter can wait though, I’m here to discuss how the Australian teams will fare, after analysing their off-season transfers.
Brumbies
Place at end of 2015 regular season: sixth
Projected finish in Australian conference: first
Players in: Albert Anae (Treviso), Tomas Cubelli (Belgrano), Nick Jooste (Perth Spirit), Andrew Smith (Montpellier), Aidan Toua (Agen)
Players out: JP Smith (Stormers), Siliva Siliva (Rebels), Fotu Auelua (released), Sean Doyle (Munster), Nic White (Montpellier), Rodney Iona (UC Vikings), Jesse Mogg (Montpellier)
Extended playing squad: Robbie Abel, Joe Powell and Michael Wells
The Brumbies again have a formidable forward pack, have extended their depth, and the bulk of their players are further battle-hardened due to the Canberra Vikings’ impressive performance in this year’s NRC. The inclusion of zippy Argentinian scrumhalf Tomas Cubelli is also cause for celebration.
The key to improvement is making the backline more dangerous and attacking. This is made easier with Aidan Toua, James Dargaville and Nigel Ah Wong showing they have what it takes to make a stamp on the competition.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Scott Sio
2. Stephen Moore
3. Ben Alexander
4. Sam Carter
5. Rory Arnold
6. Scott Fardy
7. David Pocock
8. Jarrad Butler
9. Tomas Cubelli
10. Matt Toomua
11. Joe Tomane
12. Christian Lealifano
13. Tevita Kuridrani
14. Henry Speight
15. Aidan Toua
Force
Place at end of 2015 regular season: 15th
Projected finish in Australian conference: fourth
Players in: Richie Arnold, Peter Grant (La Rochelle), Ben Tapuai (Reds), Jono Lance (Waratahs), Semisi Masirewa (Manawatu)
Players out: Wilhelm Steenkamp (Brive), Sam Wykes (Coca Cola West Red Sparks), Justin Turner (Associates), Sias Ebersohn (Cheetahs), Zack Holmes (La Rochelle), Pat Dellit (released), Nick Cummins (Coca Cola West Red Sparks), Mitchell Scott (Tasman), Akihito Yamada (Sunwolves)
Extended playing squad: Kane Koteka, Brad Lacey, Ammon Matuauto, Guy Millar, Tom Sexton
Nowhere to go but up, right? This year the Force failed to continue the momentum of an outstanding 2014 season, slumping back to claim the wooden spoon, with their season highlight being two wins from two games over the Waratahs.
Sadly, a lot of the locks in the squad have departed, but the acquisition of Richie Arnold will pay dividends and aid the lineout, while players like Adam Coleman and Steve Mafi smash their way through rucks and tackles. With Sias Ebersohn leaving, the door has been opened for Peter Grant, Luke Burton and Jono Lance to contend for the 10 jersey and rejuvenate a poor attack.
The strength of this team still lies in the forward pack, but if the backline, refreshed with some new faces, lives up to its potential then Michael Foley’s men are in with a shot.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Pekahou Cowan
2. Nathan Charles
3. Tetera Faulkner
4. Adam Coleman
5. Richie Arnold
6. Angus Cottrell
7. Matt Hodgson
8. Ben McCalman
9. Ryan Louwrens
10. Peter Grant
11. Dane Haylett-Petty
12. Kyle Godwin
13. Ben Tapuai
14. Luke Morahan
15. Jono Lance
Rebels
Place at end of 2015 regular season: tenth
Projected finish in Australian Conference: third
Players in: Ryan Cocker (Taranaki), Jamie Hagan (London Irish), James Hanson (Reds), Siliva Siliva (Brumbies), Culum Retallick (Blues), Adam Thompson (Reds), Reece Hodge (Manly)
Players out: Paul Alo-Emile (Stade Francais), Keita Inagaki (Sunwolves), Ben Whittaker (released), Cadeyrn Neville (Reds), Scott Higginbotham (NEC Green Rockets), Radike Samo (Queensland Country), Luke Burgess (Zebre), Tom Kingston (Sydney Stars), Telusa Veainu (Leicester), Bryce Hegarty (Toyota Industries Shuttles)
Extended playing squad: Paul Asquith, Harley Fox, Daniel Hawkins, Michael Snowden, Rob Leota and Sione Tuipulotu
Melbourne have fallen short of the finals since their inclusion in the competition, but have their best chance to rectify that situation in 2016.
A few impressive players have left the squad, particularly Paul Alo-Emile and Telusa Veainu, but their forward pack has been bolstered by a host of players, including Reds recruits James Hanson and Adam Thompson. Add some NRC players who’ve also shown glimpses of stardom in Australian Under-20s team, and the Rebels’ prospects are good – if they can retain the bulk of their young players.
My eyes will be on the development of the much-hyped halves pairing of Nic Stirzaker and Jack Debreczeni, but the whole team is exciting, and they are quickly becoming a lot of spectator’s second team.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Toby Smith
2. James Hanson
3. Laurie Weekes
4. Culum Retallick
5. Luke Jones
6. Adam Thompson
7. Sean McMahon
8. Lopeti Timani
9. Nic Stirzaker
10. Jack Debreczeni
11. Sefanaia Naivalu
12. Mitch Inman
13. Tamati Ellison
14. Dom Shipperly
15. Mike Harris
Reds
Place at end of 2015 regular season: 13th
Projected finish in Australian conference: fifth
Players in: Taniela Tupou (Queensland Country), Kane Douglas (Leinster), Ben Matwijow (Canterbury), Cadeyrn Neville (Rebels), Lukhan Tui (Queensland Country), James Tuttle (Queensland Country), Lagi Setu (Queensland Country), Junior Laloifi (Brisbane City), Eto Nabuli (NRL: St George Illawarra Dragons), Izaia Perese (Queensland Country), Ayumu Goromaru (Yamaha Jubilo)
Players out: James Hanson (Rebels), James Horwill (Harlequins), Marco Kotze (Agen), David McDuling (Sharks), Tom Murday (Agen), Ed O’Donoghue (released), Eddie Quirk (Sunwolves), Beau Robinson (released), Adam Thompson (Rebels), Will Genia (Stade Francais), Quade Cooper (Toulon), Sam Johnson (Glasgow Warriors), Ben Tapuai (Force), Tom Banks (Queensland Country), James O’Connor (released), Lachlan Turner (Toulon)
The Reds have the biggest case of turnstiles in the Australian conference, with lot of new faces – young ones for the most part too, which is great news. It’s the exodus of seasoned players, many with Test experience, that is the real hamper. Worsening the new-look Reds’ chances is that they’ll be missing Kane Douglas and James Slipper for large chunks of the season due to injury.
However, with a lot of young forwards in the squad, the tutelage of newly appointed forwards coach Brad Thorn will prove invaluable. How immediate his impact is will be vital for how the team performs, as this inexperienced group of backs will only fire off the back of forward dominance.
Potential, yes, but it’s hard to see the Reds jumping back to 2011 form just yet.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Pettowa Paraka
2. Saia Fainga’a
3. Greg Holmes
4. Rob Simmons
5. Cadeyrn Neville
6. Lolo Fakaosilea
7. Liam Gill
8. Hendrik Tui
9. Nick Frisby
10. Jake McIntyre
11. Junior Laloifi
12. Samu Kerevi
13. Karmichael Hunt
14. Chris Feauai-Sautia
15. Ayumu Goromaru
Waratahs
Place at end of 2015 regular season: second
Projected finish in Australian conference: second
Players in: Angus Ta’avao (Blues), Brad Wilkin (Reds development), Jim Stewart (Sydney Stars), Zac Guildford (Hawke’s Bay), Harry Jones (Sydney Stars), Reece Robinson (NRL: Parramatta Eels)
Players out: Michael Alaalatoa (Crusaders), Sekope Kepu (Bordeaux), Mitchell Chapman (retired), Tala Gray (Toulouse), Pat McCutcheon (Australia Sevens), Jacques Potgieter (Sharks), Wycliff Palu (Toyota Verblitz), Auvasa Faleali’I (Nevers), Brendon McKibbin (London Irish), Jono Lance (Force), Adam Ashley-Cooper (Bordeaux), Peter Betham (Leicester), Taqele Naiyaravoro (Glasgow Warriors), Ben Volavola (Crusaders)
Notably different to other Australian teams in 2016; instead of all eyes being on the players coming and going, the Waratahs will be embracing the succession of Darryl Gibson from assistant to head coach. How he handles the new job following Michael Cheika’s departure will determine how the Tahs fare in 2016.
The Waratahs have been hit hard with the loss of Jacques Potgieter, Sekope Kepu and Wycliff Palu in the forward pack, while nearly every winger in the squad except for Rob Horne has left.
Gibson has added two NRC players, an NRL player, and a talented but troubled All Black to the backline stocks; how these players rejig his team will shape their season.
The touted changes of Israel Folau to the centres and Kurtley Beale back to fullback could be crucial in the Waratahs claiming their second title in three seasons.
Potential XV for opening game
1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Polota-Nau
3. Angus Ta’avao
4. Will Skelton
5. Dean Mumm
6. David Dennis
7. Michael Hooper
8. Brad Wilkin
9. Nick Phipps
10. Bernard Foley
11. Rob Horne
12. Kurtley Beale
13. Andrew Kellaway
14. Zac Guildford
15. Israel Folau
I’ve taken particular interest in how the five Australian teams might fare, not just against each other, but in a reformatted competition with the Jaguares, Kings and Sunwolves all eagerly awaiting to join the Super Rugby rank.
The greatest shame is that none of the Australian teams will get to face the Jaguares just yet, unless they should face each other in the finals. This of course should not deter anyone from getting into the spirit of looking ahead to your team’s chances next year. Any comments on how you think your team shall do and what starting XV you’d pick are most welcome.
I know ’tis the season to be jolly, but it’s the rugby season that I await more eagerly. Happy holidays!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.