Let's get wild for the NFL's bumper weekend

It’s about to get wild. One of the best football weekends of the year is upon us. Soak it up. We’ve got four mouth-watering match-ups on the slate and plenty of storylines to talk about.

Without further ado, let’s preview the wildest of football weekends.

Chiefs (5) at Texans (4)
Sunday 8.35am (AEST)
Line: Chiefs -3.5

These two teams share a lot of similarities. Both lost their starting running backs to injury this season, both boast top ten defences in all four major categories, and both defences have carried their team on their back at times this season.

The Chiefs are arguably the hottest team in football and come into the playoffs on a ten-game win streak. The Texans finished the season on a three-game run and have won seven out of the last nine since being embarrassed by the Miami Dolphins.

The Chiefs’ turnaround came in a home win against the Steelers after five straight losses to start the season 1-5. These two teams faced each other in Week 1, a 27-20 win to the Chiefs in Houston. But so much has changed since then.

The key for the Chiefs is turnovers. Alex Smith hardly makes any bad decisions and the Chiefs cause plenty of turnovers of their own. Whatever team wins that battle will win this game.

Key to the game: Chiefs cornerback Marcus Peters versus Texans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins
Kansas City hit the cornerback jackpot with Peters in the first round last year. He finished the regular season with eight interceptions and two touchdowns. His first pick of the season came on his first ever play in the NFL on a pass from Brian Hoyer intended for DeAndre Hopkins.

Hopkins is a beast of a receiver and plays really physical on cornerbacks, often subtly pushing guys out of the way on touchdown catches. He actually went on to have nine catches for 98 yards and two touchdowns in that Week 1 clash against Peters and the Chiefs and from there was well on the way to his stellar Pro Bowl season.

Now Hoyer is back under centre you can expect Hopkins to get a tonne of targets. If Peters can keep him in check then the Chiefs defence may have its way with the Texans offence.

Player to watch: JJ Watt, Texans DE
Last season the name Justin James Watt was being thrown around with the same regularity as Steph Curry and LeBron James. You know ESPN has its favourites and Watt was one of them. He deserved it too. Watt had a massive season (20.5 sacks, four forced fumbles, five fumble recoveries, a pick-six and three receiving touchdowns) and was being talked about as a candidate for NFL MVP.

This season the hype around Watt has all but disappeared, but it’s not like Watt’s numbers have fallen off a cliff. He led the league with 17.5 sacks and had three forced fumbles. To give you an idea how good Watt is, he might win back-to-back defensive player of the year awards in a season when he has underperformed in most people’s eyes.

Watt’s coming out party came in a Wild Card game against the Bengals in 2012, when he picked off Andy Dalton and took it back for a touchdown in the Texans’ first-ever playoff game. He could really disrupt things against the Chiefs at home as the Texans look to make their third Divisional Playoffs in five years.

Prediction: Chiefs 24-14 Texans

Steelers (6) at Bengals (3)
Sunday 12.15pm (AEST)

Line: Steelers -2.5

Looking back at this time last year I wrote that Andy Dalton had led the Bengals to three straight Wild Card games and lost every one. Well, we can put an end to that horror streak this year.

Dalton played a huge part in the Bengals’ record this season, but it was AJ McCarron quarterbacking this team down the stretch. And it will be McCarron, not Dalton, who leads the Bengals out on Sunday (AEST). So who is to say it will be any different this year? And are the Bengals destined to be just a Wild Card team during the Marvin Lewis era?

Um. It probably won’t be any different and yeah, they are, for now.

Apart from the Seahawks, the Steelers are the other popular pick to shake things up in the playoffs. Every other year a team comes from the Wild Card weekend and makes a run through the post-season. The Steelers will have to do it on the road each week. Starting in Cincinnati, where they are no strangers.

In fact, they won there in Week 14. Replacement running back DeAngelo Williams had a big game on that night, rushing for 76 yards and two scores. But he’s out for at least this week, meaning the Steelers will rely on two relative unknowns out of the backfield. Look for Big Ben to go to the air with regularity, as always, and if the Bengals don’t get pressure and keep him in the pocket then he could pick them apart.

Key to the game: Bengals running backs versus Steelers front seven
It looks like McCarron will again get the start for the Bengals as they look to keep pace with the high-flying Steelers offence in this AFC North Wild Card clash.

Can the Bengals match it through the air with the Steelers with McCarron under centre? No.

So what is the best game plan to get the W? How about running the football? Cincinnati will need to control the football and finish with the lion’s share of possession if they are going to win this game.

The Steelers boast the fifth-ranked rush defence in the NFL and have given up 1,456 yards this season, at 3.8 yards per carry. The Bengals struggled against them on the ground in their two match-ups this season.

Jeremy Hill had 60 yards in the first game in Pittsburgh, by far the best total in the two games. Cincinnati should have the league’s best young running back duo but they don’t know how to utilise these two unique backs.

Hill is the power guy, the short-yardage runner and the goal-line touchdown-scorer. Giovani Bernard is the third down back, the screen back, who can catch passes and elude defenders. And yet they have only one game of more than 100 yards rushing between them this season.

Bernard clocked it up in Week 2 on 20 carries against the Chargers. Hill has had far too many ineffective games and the Bengals seem to go away from him when he struggles. The team needs to stick with the run game and mix it up between Hill and Bernard if they are going to make a mark in the playoffs.

Player to watch: Antonio Brown, Steelers WR
How do you cover this guy? That’s the one question cornerbacks and defensive coordinators must have been asking themselves this year when they have been preparing to face Brown and the Steelers. Cincinnati has actually done a pretty good job against Brown this season, holding him to 47 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 and 87 yards and zero scores in the return match-up in Week 14.

They might sound like decent numbers, but compared to the rest of his season, Brown was pretty much held in check. For example, in between those two games against Cincinnati, Brown had 284 receiving yards against Oakland and two other 100-plus yard, two touchdown games. Three straight seasons now, AB has finished in the top two in the league in receptions and receiving yards. And he did it this year with Big Ben in and out of the line-up.

Brown comes to play in the playoffs and if he gets loose in the secondary he could carve this Bengals team up. Pittsburgh need Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton to get open and give Ben Roethlisberger someone else to target to limit the amount of double coverage Brown sees. Even if the Bengals do put two on Brown, if Big Ben can scramble in the pocket and Brown can get open then this team could torch the Bengals and send a message to the rest of the NFL.

Prediction: Steelers 31-24 Bengals

Seahawks (6) at Vikings (3)
Monday 5.05am (AEST)
Line: Seahawks -5.5

No one gives the Vikings a chance in this one. A week removed from claiming the NFC North title against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field and no one is giving them a shot in hell of beating the Seahawks.

You could argue the Vikings are maybe a season or two away from making a deep playoff run, while the Seahawks are primed and ready for another tilt at a Super Bowl.

Russell Wilson is having the best statistical season of his career, Marshawn Lynch looks like he’s going to be back and healthy, Doug Baldwin has cast off the tag of underachiever once and for all and the defence is playing lights out.

Seattle blew the Vikings out in Minnesota in Week 13, but it’s important to note the Vikes were without several key defensive players and abandoned the run early on when they fell behind. Sure, everything might need to go right for the Vikings to win this one, but who is to say it won’t.

No turnovers, a defensive score, a few Blair Walsh field goals and a healthy dose of Adrian Peterson and Minnesota is as good a chance as any team of knocking off Seattle. If any one of those factors goes in the opposite direction it could be a long day for Vikings fans.

Key to the game: Adrian Peterson versus Seahawks front seven
If you’ve been listening to or reading NFL playoff previews this week then you would have heard that it’s going to be zero degrees in Minnesota on Sunday (Monday AEST). But they are not talking about Celsius.

Zero degrees Fahrenheit. That is -18 degrees Celsius. That is bloody freezing. So, given that it’s going to be a frozen tundra out there expect the Vikings to lean on their top offensive weapon even more against the Seahawks. And if they get a lead then Peterson should get 30 plus touches out of the backfield.

Peterson was bottled up and had his worst game against Seattle in Week 13 and the Vikings were destroyed. It was the only game this season when Peterson had less than ten carries. When Peterson has 18 or more carries the Vikings are 11-1 this season. Feed him early and stick with the run, Vikes.

Player to watch: Russell Wilson
Don’t you just hate Russell Wilson? No, obviously not as a person, he’s like the nicest dude in the NFL. But don’t you just hate how good he is? How he keeps getting better every season? How he’s always composed under pressure? How he always turns busted plays into touchdowns?

Damn him.

For the first time in his career, Wilson had to overcome some adversity this season when Marshawn Lynch went down with injury. The Seahawks plugged in Thomas Rawls and he did the job for a while before he also got hurt. So Russell and the Seahawks have had an inconsistent running game this season.

Do you think that has hurt Wilson? Nope. He’s played better. The bastard. He set career marks in passing yards (4,024 yards) touchdowns (34) and passer rating (110.1) and despite having the sixth seed the Seahawks look like one of the hottest teams in football. Here we go again.

Seattle are going to start slow, finish fast and sweep through the playoffs. And it’ll be on the shoulders of Wilson. Don’t you just hate him?

Prediction: Vikings 23-20 Seahawks.

Packers (5) at Redskins (4)
Monday 8.40am (AEST)

Line: Redskins -1.5

September 15, 2013. That was the last time the Packers played the Redskins. It was during a period of offensive dominance for Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. In fact, Rodgers threw 480 yards and four touchdowns as the Packers won 38-20 at Lambeau. The yardage mark remains Rodgers’ best game of his career.

But how things have changed. Kirk Cousins looks more like Aaron Rodgers than Aaron Rodgers does right now as the Packers limped across the finish line into the playoffs after initially looking near unstoppable. The Redskins finished strong to avoid a Week 17 showdown for the division.

Cousins has looked sharp under centre since #YouLikeThat and his weapons, Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, are far outplaying the Packers’ skill players. This Redskins were 6-2 at home this season and even managed to sort out their horror road record before the season was over. Put this match-up on any other weekend over the past five years and you would take the Packers in a canter. But Green Bay just isn’t Green Bay right now.

Key to the game: Packers receivers versus Redskins secondary
It’s no secret the Packers offence has been un-Packerlike for much of this season. Usually unflappable quarterback Rodgers has been routinely flapped. His play on the field doesn’t pass the eye test and his statistics look ordinary.

One theory about why Rodgers and the Packers have been struggling is that Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, James Jones and company have struggled to get open. Cobb has been inconsistently bad this season and Adams hasn’t caught a touchdown, despite getting a massive amount of targets from Rodgers. The Packers could be a quick out in the playoffs if Rodgers’ passes keep ending up in the dirt.

Player to watch: Kirk Cousins, Redskins quarterback
“You like that?!” That seems like the obvious way to start a blurb about Kirk Cousins’ recent form, right? What do you mean it’s been done to death? Ah, what do you know.

Cousins has been pretty dang good the last three weeks, throwing for 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions and 860 yards. The Redskins won all three games to clinch the NFC East and averaged 35 points a game. If they put up those sort of numbers at home against the Packers then I don’t expect the struggling Green Bay passing attack to keep up. If Cousins plays well then expect the Redskins to move on to play Arizona.

Prediction: Redskins 27-21 Packers.