We have moved through seven sides and forecast a bleak 2016 for Essendon, Brisbane, Carlton, Melbourne, Gold Coast, St.Kilda and the GWS Giants.
We move to South Australia and find a team that fought crippling odds in 2015 to play finals footy, but look like their might plateau in 2016.
Adelaide – 11th
No sporting side has dealt with the pain and adversity that faced the Crows in 2015. The alleged murder of their coach Phil Walsh mid-season placed the side in a place no-one could comprehend.
They fought hard to finish the season in seventh spot and notched a stirring finals win over the Western Bulldogs, but lost their best player and best and fairest winner Patrick Dangerfield.
Whether they can improve enough across the field to make up for this loss remains to be seen, particularly as their next best midfielder is almost 33 years old.
B: Luke Brown, Daniel Talia, Ricky Henderson
B: Rory Laird, Kyle Hartigan. Paul Seedsman
C: Matthew Jaensch, Scott Thompson, Nathan Van Berlo
HF: Tom Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Richard Douglas
F: Eddie Betts, Taylor Walker, Troy Menzel
R: Sam Jacobs, Rory Sloane, Brad Crouch
I/C: Matt Crouch, Charlie Cameron, David Mackay, Brodie Smith
Forward line
This is one of the more skilled, versatile and potent forward lines in the competition. Walker is one of the league’s better leaders. Often seen as a joker, his ability to lead from the front and kick goals places him comfortably among the AFL’s best.
Alongside Walker is Betts, arguably the league’s best small forward despite not having the profile and hype of some others including a certain player at Hawthorn. Betts kicked 63 goals to rank second in the competition in 2015, a remarkable return for a player seen as inconsistent in his time at Carlton.
Tall forward Josh Jenkins not only provides a quality third option, but has developed into a more than serviceable backup ruckman.
Jenkins kicked three or more goals on seven occasions in 2015 and was held goalless just once. Add him to the lethal combo of Walker and Betts and throw in the unheralded Tom Lynch and recruit Troy Menzel and scoring will be the least of Adelaide’s problems in 2016.
Forward line – 8/10
Backline
The backline features an intriguing mix of players. Brown and Talia are two of the more low profile, effective defenders in the competition. Neither are household names and most would blend into the crowd but both are miserly and critical to the Crows success.
Hartigan is presented with the opportunity to take centre half back and make it his. In a largely under-sized backline he seems likely to have the first crack at pairing with Talia in forming a key positional defensive duo around which the Crows can launch towards finals.
The defence ranked sixth for points conceded but conceded the seventh-most marks inside 50 and inside 50 entries. They ranked eighth in rebound 50s and that number is bound to improve with Seedsman, Laird and Jaensch attacking from the half-back line.
Talent has never been questioned for Seedsman, but Nathan Buckley grew tired of his inconsistency and reported lack of professionalism. Adelaide will hope a change of scenery helps for this very talented player who can provide drive and flair.
Backline rating – 5/10
Midfield
Thompson remains a marvel ranking in the top 10 in both contested possessions and clearances per game and showing few signs of slowing down despite entering his 17th AFL season. Sloane provides quality support and Crows diehards will be hoping Brad Crouch can catch a break on the injury front. When he plays, the youngster is among the best contested inside players in the league – he averages almost 25 possessions a game but has played just 25 games in three injury-plagued seasons.
Those three are elite midfielders but the quality drops away quite quickly. Douglas is a solid player and Mackay, Van Berlo and Matt Crouch provide decent depth but the strong midfields often go 8 or 10 players deep; the Crows do not have that talent at their disposal and will hope Laird, Atkins. Jarrad Lyons and Riley Knight
continue to develop and push into the best 22.
The Crows ranked second in contested possessions and fourth in clearances which reflects their top-end midfield talent, but just as importantly outlines the value of Jacobs. Cast off by Carlton, Jacobs quietly goes about his business as one of the league’s very best ruckmen. He features among the league leaders in possessions (for ruckman) and hitouts and remains one of the more consistent players in the AFL.
Midfield rating – 5/10
Fixture
Playing at one of the more impressive home venues in the league, the Crows will need every bit of that advantage with a brutal 2016 draw ahead. Two matches against Fremantle, West Coast, North Melbourne, Geelong and Port Adelaide are as difficult an assignment as any team has. Adelaide play six of last season’s finalists in the first seven rounds with arch rivals Port Adelaide being the seventh team.
Facing North, Port, Richmond and Sydney in the first four weeks and Fremantle (in Perth), Port and the Eagles in the last three games poses challenging bookends to the season; the draw opens up in between but the start and finish will dictate where the Crows finish among the mid-table logjam.
Fixture rating – 4/10
Coaching
Don Pyke was an unobtrusive, no-fuss footballer for the West Coast Eagles and one figures his coaching approach will be similar. Stepping into the breach left by Walsh leaves him large shoes to fill, but he survived a tough selection process and reportedly comes on board as the recommended choice of Crows legend and chairman Mark Ricciuto.
The game style he brings to the table will make for intriguing viewing; Adelaide played a largely contested game in 2015 but that was more than likely due to poor midfield skills. They ranked 15th in disposal efficiency and committed the second most clangers per game in the AFL, giving Pyke quite the challenge should he wish to change the gameplan.
A return to the finals looks to be a par score, but Pyke probably gets 12 months’ grace with the departure of Dangerfield and need to develop more midfield depth.
Coaching rating – 4/10
Summary
Adelaide’s forward line potency places them in a position where they may be able to cover deficiencies down back and in the midfield, especially if they improve their disposal efficiency. Thompson is a soft tissue injury waiting to happen and opposition coaches will put far more time into this forward line in the hope they can contain Walker, Betts and co.
Pyke is recognised as a coach who backs players to play with instinct and flair and his understated manner may be just what the Crows need. Adelaide doesn’t accept mediocrity as a club and the way in which Ricciuto conducts himself embodies this attitude; if Pyke can pull the right reigns and get a good run with injury they may well replicate last season’s performance.
However the lack of midfield depth and pressure on the forward line to reproduce their exploits of 2015 may result in year on the outside looking in once September starts.
Predicted finish – 11th
Tony Kolic
Guest
Adelaide will finish 6th
Tommy
Guest
Brendon the 1st, your analysis of the crows midfield is fair; Thompson is old, yes, Sloane is a gun and will probably be the best player, yes, B Crouch is a gun, yes, Douglas provides good support and we need our depth to stand up. All fair points. At this stage you haven't seen any other 1st ranked depth, I guess that is why these players haven't been able to hold spots in our team. But realistically, B Crouch in for Dangerfield and we have the same mids as last year. So it's not the end of the world (we finished 5th last year), and B Crouch was generally considered a top 5 open draft pick, possibly top 2. So a good replacement. Backline is better than last year, full stop. Still a long way off, but better. It's building. The forward line is top 4 in the comp. End of story. Eddie Betts is a gun. So really it is a pretty good line up. But 11th is realistic, it is possibly 1 or 2 games between 11th and 8th, and with a tougher draw this is possible. So your conclusion is fair. The 2012 season was a cracker though, we finished second, then we knocked of Sydney, Fremantle in the finals before losing the prelim final by a kick. If you watch the prelim again you will see that there were a few poor 'clutch' umpiring decisions right at the end of the game that went the other way, as so often does, and really we should have/ could have made the GF. If that is not reason to be optimistic, then I don't know what is!! We know the draw was good, but winning finals is what it is all about. We played another 2 finals last year, we are getting ready for our tilt. It will be in the next 2-3 years or we miss out, so this year needs to be better, and we need to beat better teams. Tend to agree with Volcons on this one.
berrlins
Roar Pro
that'll be the test for Sloane, with Danger gone and Thompson getting older he'll become the main midfield target, however they do have a couple of young midfielder's impressing. Brad Crouch would be one I think who will have a go. I could be wrong here but I don't think they'll slide because of the loss of Dangerfield.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
And NAB rising star nominee.
Lamby
Roar Rookie
Brodie Smith is an All Australian backman. Put him back in. And you have AA in Talia and AA nominee in Rory Laird. Chuck in Lever - a NAB rising star nominee for 2015 as well. So 3 of 6 back men are elite or A grade - And you only give the backline a 5? The average age/games for the backline is also only early 20's/less than 50. So the backline is getting close to 50 games each so should step up this year. Put Atkins in ahead of van berlo or Mackay. (from afc.com.au) Adelaide has three players ranked ‘elite’ in the competition: Rory Sloane, Eddie Betts and Brodie Smith, as well as eight in the ‘above average’ category based on Champion Data rankings. These include All Australian defender Daniel Talia, All Australian nominees Taylor Walker, Sam Jacobs and Rory Laird and influential pair Tom Lynch and Richard Douglas.
Vocans
Guest
With exception of Danger the quality has gone up rather than down, and the same depth got them inti the 8 and a finals win, so thats not as significant as you suggest. The draw is the killer as you say.
David C
Guest
They're in a bunch of teams like Geelong, Collingwood, Port, Dogs, GWS and GC all fighting to make the 8. Very open this year.
Vocans
Guest
The first part of the draw is tough so I wouldn't start with Milera. I'd put Hampton where you have Smith, who I'd move to the wing to get him closer to the mids and the goals with that boot of his. Knight would take Milera's place on the bench. I'd put the left foot of Menzel onto the right forward flank, Lynch's right boot on the left forward flank, and Cameron into the left forward pocket. I'd get Betts and Cameron training together to run rings around the opposing backline. I am uncertain about having both Matt Crouch and Thommo together as both are slow, but I guess they're grooming Matt for when Thommo retires. Brown Talia Lever Hampton Hartigan Laird Smith Thompson Seedsman Menzel Walker Lynch Betts Jenkins Cameron Jacobs B. Crouch Sloane M. Crouch Douglas Knight Grigg
Brendon the 1st
Guest
Hendo gets injured every six games and misses the next six, Seedsman is an unknown and McKay other than being built like a wing attack Net baller has never ripped a game apart. I don't see Eddie sliding but how many small forwards kick 60 plus goals, the only one I can think of currently playing is Le Cras and only once, like I said Tex may pick up the slack, Cameron has promise, lynch, yeah OK, Menzel, could be good, could do what he did at Carlton, the forward line is great, but who other than Sloan, Douglas, and Smith are getting it in there, and that's the issue. The crows do have the potential to be around the 8, but no Danger, a harder draw and a lack of quality depth all over the park, how could they possibly go higher, I just can't see it. There best 22 is good, I'm happy to admit but they need to stay on the park to get on top of their draw and that's no guarantee.
John Freed
Guest
Brown Talia Lever Smith Hartigan Laird Knight Thommo Seedsman Lynch Walker Cameron Betts Jenkins Menzel Jacobs B. Crouch Sloane M. Crouch Grigg Douglas Milera That's the 22 I'd choose
George
Roar Rookie
Good point, how will Sloan handle being tagged? Also if you assume Sloan just steps into Dangerfields vacated role, who is going to be the next Sloan? I don't see Adelaide having the midfield depth be as good as they were last year.
David C
Guest
Sloane will take the role of Danger all right ... the role of being tagged every week.
Macca
Guest
Don Freo - "Interesting. I am now ignoring my own statement? Is that what you mean?I wrote it." Yes that is exactly what I mean, you wrote it, it has been shown to be ridiculous and you have run a mile from it.
Macca
Guest
Mattyb - Don clearly lives in an alternate reality, a place where for example Hawthorn and Sydney are too old but Freo & North (who are roughly a year older on average) are top 4 sides, how is asking how he lives there so successfully "below the belt"? If I know more about his affliction I can be more sensitive to it. I do the love the irony that you are taking the high ground on wanting to talk sport and not dish out abuse on this site when you sport related conversations can be counted on one hand. If you follow this conversation from the beginning you will see that all I did was post a very relevant stat when discussing clubs being to old (the average age of the clubs) and it was old Donny boy who chose to start the abuse and take a turn to the irrelevant.
Don Freo
Guest
Interesting. I am now ignoring my own statement? Is that what you mean? I wrote it...although I have no idea which statement you mean. It doesn't really matter. It's only you who has some issue and you are not really anyone's intended audience.
mattyb
Guest
Pull your head in Macca,you can't say that. What's your next line,terror groups. You just sounded like Andy,that was poor and below the belt. I know Don can defend himself but I just want to express my concerns that we come on here to talk sport,yes people can disagree but that/those insults are way out of line, and a bit to much is being allowed to go through. It's not anyone's fault your are always being owned,it's your own.Saying the same thing over and over and mentioning irrelevant stats.
Freddy
Guest
I think your been overly harsh there. People have been writing off Scott Thompson for a number of years now, but he keeps on delivering. Your prediction is based on the flawed assumption that players will drop off. Eddie is well and truly in his prime, Tex is just reaching it and you can expect improved years from Jenkins and Cameron who over the last two years have slowly but consistently provided better seasons. The backline is still a few years away, but the running brigade is more than capable with Henderson, Laird, Smith, Jaench, Seedsman and Mackay all able to fill that role. The midfield without Dangerfield is the only real concern for me and if one of Sloane or B Crouch can become that elite, they are well poised to make an impact in finals. That been said, the most likely result for 2016 would be an away elimination final
Macca
Guest
Don Freo- Hmmm, if that statement is true (which I doubt) why bother responding to something you haven't read? It would make much more sense just to ignore it. Can I just ask is your ability to live so successfully in an alternate reality due to a medical condition, drug consumption or just years of practicing wilful delusion. And don't think I haven't notice that you are once again trying so hard to ignore your ridiculous statement.
Don Freo
Guest
I don't read every post. Only the short ones. The rest I skim. The long posts by you and Rick...I doubt anyone reads them through. (Maybe you read each other's). I just skim. If there is a mention of a Freo player, Freo or Don Freo...I might read that bit.
Kasey
Guest
Tommy said: "New coach Pyke has the amazing opportunity to take a top 6 team (end of finals) and move into the top four. No Dangerfield actually settles the team, last year was a nightmare of speculation. They are still better than Port, GWS, Collingwood and have always been better than Gold Coast. Anybody who doesn’t agree probably has a bias towards one of these clubs (Don’t worry, we all do!). Thanks for the write up, but 11th is a dismal prediction from one of the form teams of the competition. Prediction: 6." As a Crows fan I feel you've rebutted the underrating position of the Original piece well and 6th is probably about where I and many other Crows fans hope and expect our team to finish this coming year. theknown unknown is strength of fixture, which teams are going to be on song this year? and how will that affect strength of Fixture perceptions? The 'unknown unknown' of course is Don Pyke. We all hope he can continue the great work started by Phil Walsh. Actually as a Crows fan we are used to being under-rated and I'd much rather be under rated by the talking heads and then have a 'surprisingly good' season than be tipped to make the GF and have a shocker falling well short as our little brothers from down Alberton way did last season:) Go Crows!!:)