NRL season preview series: Introduction and the Nines

Deep breaths everyone, we’re almost there. That’s right, as of 10am tomorrow, rugby league is back. Well the Auckland Nines are back, which is close enough after four months of largely uninspiring international cricket.

Let’s be clear, the Nines probably aren’t a particularly good indicator of likely success in the upcoming season, because most squads bare little resemblance to the teams that will run out in Round 1.

Whether it is a fear of injuries or simply a desire to avoid interrupting the preseason, few teams are sending a full-strength squad. Indeed, several of the squads, the Bulldogs in particular, are laughably thin.

However, there are two teams to look at in particular.

As hosts, one imagines the Warriors feel some pressure to perform, and boy is that reflected in their squad. Both Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and Shaun Johnson will play, which is more than enough attacking ability for a nine-man game. But then you add players like Konrad Hurrell, Solomana Kata and Tuimoala Lolohea and the Warriors will be cooking with nitro.

The other team to watch is the Cowboys, who have not only sent three quarters of their grand final side (minus Johnathan Thurston of course) they’ve bulked out their squad with young phenomena Coen Hess and Gideon Gela-Mosby, the latter who scored a mere 31 tries in the NYC in 2015.

Beyond those two it is very difficult to predict which teams will do well. However, while the results are hard to predict, and don’t matter all that much, the Nines can help to give us a sense of how teams and players are shaping up (literally for some of the more weight-challenged players around the league) ahead of the new season.

The structures in both attack and defence might not be the same, but combinations can be formed, and disused skills can be reengaged in a competitive environment.

The Nines is also terrific for checking in on players who have switched teams in the offseason, and for giving us a sneak peek at some of the young players who may find their way into first grade in the season to come.

So whether it’s Tuivasa-Sheck or Tyrone Roberts running out in new colours for the first time, or NYC stars like Te Maire Martin, Curtis Scott and Gela-Mosby playing with the big boys, there is plenty to get excited about.

But even more importantly than checking in on who enjoyed the Christmas cheer a bit too much or who looks sharp in a new uniform, the arrival of the Nines means that it’s almost time for the real NRL season – and that means it’s time to launch The Roar’s NRL season preview series.

Starting on Monday we’ll have a comprehensive preview for each and every team in the competition. We’ll look back at 2015 and assess what went right and what went wrong. We’ll look at all the big ins and outs, and let you know who’s poised to make a big impact for each team. We’ll lay out a likely line-up and assess the strengths and weaknesses of every team. We’ll also zero in on one player on each team and look at why 2016 is going to be an important year for that player – whether they’re a young player on the cusp, a veteran with something to prove, or a star who has signed for three quarters of a particular team’s salary cap.

Of course the most important section, and the part where you will decide whether I’m an insightful analyst or full of rubbish, is the predicted finish. But rather than nominating a particular finishing spot on the ladder, which is a fool’s game, these previews will put the teams into one of five tiers on the basis of their likely finishing spot.

The first tier is the self-explanatory ‘top four’ – reserved for teams set to make the top four. Because there’s always a shock or two in the top four, I’m only going to slot two or three teams into that category to leave room for surprise packets.

The next category is ‘make the eight’ and these are the teams that I’m very confident will make the eight but can’t quite to commit to in the top four. Again, because there are always ups and downs, the ‘make the eight’ category doesn’t fill out the entire eight.

That is reserved for the ‘fringe of the eight’ category, where I’ve put the handful of teams to slog it out for those final few spots in the finals. This is the category where the difference might be a missed field goal, or a points-differential-padding flogging in another.

The fourth category is ‘miss the eight’, teams with little to no chance of making the finals, but who I don’t want to condemn to the final category, which is ‘bottom four’.

We’re going in reverse order from last year so happily, or sadly I guess, for fans of the Knights, Tigers and Titans we’ll be getting to your teams early, then continuing on with a new team every day until the season starts.

In the meantime, get up early tomorrow, mow the lawn, get the washing on the line, grab some adult beverages, enjoy the spectacle of the Nines, and start looking forward to the return of the real deal in just three weeks’ time.