NRL preview series: Newcastle Knights

Welcome to the first in the Roar’s NRL preview series. Starting today and counting down to the start of the season we will look at every team in the competiton.

We’re assessing strengths and weaknesses, looking at players to watch and predicting where each team will finish based on a five tier system: top four, make the eight, fringe of the eight, miss the eight, or the dreaded bottom four.

We’re going in reverse finishing order from last year, so starting off with the Newcastle Knights.

READ THE ROAR‘S FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES HERE

2015 in review: What the heck happened?
The Knights charged out of the gates in 2015, winning their first four matches and confounding the critics who had predicted a rebuilding year for the club.

However sadly for Knights fans those predictions looked more and more accurate as the season wound on, with the club winning only one of their next twelve games and finishing in last place with only eight wins.

Along the way they fired Coach Rick Stone and announced the departure of fan favourite Kurt Gidley.

Off-season story: Hiring Nathan Brown
Whether it was fair or not to sack Rick Stone only two thirds of the way through his first season back in charge of the team after the knightmare (pun intended) that was the Tinkler-Bennett era can be debated.

However for better or worse the Knights did chose to move on. In doing so they have made a bold move, signing a coach who was run out of not just the NRL, but the entire country after his first stint as a head coach.

Nathan Brown’s tenure at the Dragons is remembered by many as the original series of The Slap after his attempt to get Trent Barrett’s attention during an in game huddle went awry.

However Brown was coach for a further five years after that incident and while the team never reached the level of success demanded by the fans he still maintains a solid 53 per cent winning rate and made a qualifying final the year he was turfed.

Reports are that Brown has been given a three-year deal and based on the roster he inherited he may need all three of them to turn the club around after three awful seasons.

Roster management
2016 gains: David Bhana, Trent Hodkinson, Mickey Paea, Pauli Pauli

2016 losses: Adam Clydsdale, David Fa’alogo, Kurt Gidley, Chris Houston, Clint Newton, Chad Redman, Tyrone Roberts, Beau Scott, Carlos Tuimavave

This key story here is trading out one underperforming halfback for another underperforming halfback – but at least the second guy has played at the highest level.

Tyrone Roberts probably wasn’t the only reason the team struggled in 2015, or even a primary reason they struggled, but he became the name and face of the team’s struggles as the season went on.

Hodkinson meanwhile went from Origin hero in 2014 to Origin scapegoat in 2015. However, after a miserable start to the year at both club level and during Origin, Hodkinson did improve in the back end of the year averaging a try assist per game in his final eight games of the year (which for reference is very good – only Johnathan Thurston averaged more than one per game). The Knights will be hoping that it is this version of Hodkinson that is the real one.

The other key story is addition by subtraction as the club says goodbye to a number of older players including former captain Kurt Gidley and forward stalwarts Chris Houston and David Fa’alongo.

This generational change is hugely important for the club as none of those players brought much to the table in 2015 and all will be replaced by younger and more vigorous players.

Beau Scott will seem to many to be a big loss but the reality is that Origin Beau Scott and Knights Beau Scott were very different players in 2015. For the Knights in 2015 Scott averaged 59.2m per game on less than seven carries per contest placing him 79th of 87 players who played at least one game in the second row.

In addition to being a lacklustre runner of the ball it is fair to say Scott also isn’t much of ball player, recording only one line break assist and no try assists over the course of the season.

However it is generally Scott’s defence that attracts the praise and here his 26.1 tackles per contest is good for 52nd among those same 87 players. But again numbers don’t tell the full story as Scott is well regarded for the sheer ferocity of his hitting in defence and it is for that brutality that he is selected in Origin.

So perhaps it is more accurate to say that Scott himself was the same player but that the games were different and his contribution was more valuable in Origin given the brutal nature of that contest and the premium on hard-nosed defence.

For 2016 and beyond the Knights will probably be better off with a slightly worse defender to get a markedly better attacker, and almost anyone would meet that description. It is likely to be the junkyard dog, Tariq Sims.

Likely line-up
1. Jake Mamo
2. Nathan Ross
3. Dane Gagai
4. Sione Mata’uti
5. Akuila Uate
6. Jarrod Mullen
7. Trent Hodkinson
8. Kade Snowden
9. Tyler Randell
10. Korbin Sims
11. Robbie Rochow
12. Tariq Sims
13. Jeremy Smith

14. Danny Levi
15. Sam Mataoara
16. Joe Tapine
17. Pauli Pauli

The good news is that 2016 represents in many ways an opportunity for a new beginning for the Knights. Not only do they have a new coach, they will also likely have new (full time) players at three of the key spine positions with Randell, Hodkinson and Mamo (more on him below). They also have the opportunity to see some other well regarded juniors flourish.

In 2014 the Knights National Youth Competition team finished on top of the table after averaging 34.5 points per game on the back of stellar seasons from Jake Mamo, Sione Mata’utia, Danny Levi and Joseph Tapine who all made the team of the year.

In 2016 those four players will likely all get unfettered runs in the top team (though it should be noted that the club has hinted that if Tapine accepts a big money move to Canberra in 2017 he may well find himself in NSW Cup in 2016).

While Mata’utia has already represented Australia, Mamo represents the biggest upgrade as he will likely replace Kurt Gidley, who was truly, heroically awful in 2015 at the fullback spot. Dane Gagai – who pinch hit at the position at times in 2015 – is expected to revert to right centre.

Mamo has already shown some truly remarkable athletic skills at the back and will slot into a backline that on paper at least has plenty of strike power.

Sadly though we may not get to see much of that strike power as the Knights’ forward pack, and front row in particular, remains a concern. The Sims brothers remain both excellent and terrifying and Robbie Rochow is a fine workman but there is not a lot of talent surrounding them.

Kade Snowden was certainly better in 2015 after several down years but he remains inconsistent and the less said about the rest of the prop rotation beyond Korbin Sims the better. The late addition of Pauli Pauli who was released from the Eels in late January will help but the pack remains one of the weakest in the competition.

If the club is any chance to compete they will require well-above-expectations performances from the players number eight and above.

Player to watch: Jarrod Mullen
Jarrod Mullen has for many years flattered to deceive. At age 20 and with only 30-odd games of NRL experience he was thrown to the State of Origin wolves essentially on the evidence of Andrew Johns saying he liked the kid.

Unsurprisingly NSW lost, Mullen was discarded and he hasn’t genuinely come close to returning to that arena since. Another in a long list of halves who couldn’t compete against the greatest spine ever assembled.

Now 28, Mullen has settled into a relatively comfortable role running the team’s right edge attack – where he possesses perhaps the best left to right cut out pass in the game – even as the club cycled through an endless stream of failed experiments on the left edge. He has been consistent and effective, but rarely outstanding.

While Mullen has worn both the six and seven jersey at times in his career (and the distinction between halfback and five-eighth is smaller than ever with most teams preferring a split halves approach) it may well be that Mullen is more effective as a secondary playmaker, without the play to play responsibility to organise the team and run the game plan.

This is why the acquisition of Hodkinson, who is an excellent game manager, has the potential to give Mullen a new lease on life. If that partnership flourishes it will go a long way towards elevating the team.

Predicted finish: Outside the eight
The good news is that on paper the Knights look markedly better than 2015, with some addition by subtraction in key positions and a big opportunity for some young players to flourish.

Players like Brock Lamb, Danny Levi and the Safiti twins who all made some noise at the Auckland Nines are generation next for the Knights and all look capable of playing at an elite level.

However with a new coach, a new halfback and some generational change in both the backline and the pack there are likely to be some teething problems.

For that reason, it is simply too hard to imagine this forward pack putting the team in winning positions often enough for them to compete for a spot in the eight.