Yesterday we covered last year’s wooden spooners the Newcastle Knights, and today we’re looking at the Wests Tigers’ hopes in 2016.
2015 in review: Ah, let’s not talk about that
It was a season to forget for the Tigers as they limped into a 15th place finish and looked worse than that record suggests at times.
2015 was supposed to be the dawning of a new era as future State of Origin halves Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses took the reins for a team loaded with young talent. However, both Brooks and Moses struggled in their second seasons while Blake Austin, whom the Tigers released at least in part to give Moses and Brooks more opportunities, flourished in Canberra.
READ THE ROAR‘S FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES HERE
The shining light was the phenomenal form of James Tedesco who sloughed off two seasons of injury hell to put in the second finest fullback season of the year (behind probable Jedi Roger Tuivasa-Sheck).
Off-season story: So he’s staying now?
Have you heard the one about the team who realised they were going to have to vastly overpay their hard-to-get-along-with captain and told everyone he was leaving?
They tried really hard to find somewhere for him to go, couldn’t find anywhere and then declared that it was all sweet. He was going to stick around but only after the club also acquired another top level player who plays the same position.
After all that palava, Robbie Farah will indeed be remaining at the Tigers – for the time being at least. But the reality is that much like a couple who break up and then get back together, the mutual commitment to a new beginning will likely only last until first adversity.
The underlying reasons that led Tigers management to the drastic decision to publicly humiliate one of the team’s most talented and popular players can’t simply have been fixed over a couple of beers or a nice latte.
Roster management
2015 gains: Matt Ballin, Michael Chee Kam, Joel Edwards, Justin Hunt, Jack Littlejohn, Jordin Rankin, Tim Grant.
2015 losses: Siteleki Akauola, Martin Taupau, Pat Richards, Keith Galloway.
The big news is Farah staying and the ramifications for Matt Ballin (and Manaia Cherrington). But don’t sleep on the overall awfulness of these roster moves. The team have lost their goal-kicker (and equal leading try scorer) and two of their best forwards in 2015 while gaining, Ballin aside, only bench players or fringe first graders.
While Keith ‘Big Red’ Galloway may well have reached the natural end of his first-grade career, he was still making a solid contribution on a weekly basis, averaging over 114 metres per game and making 23 tackles, and Marty Kapow will be a huge loss.
While many fans grew frustrated with his perceived ill-discipline and combustible temperament, Martin Taupau was the only genuine tackle-breaking threat in the Tigers pack with his 77 tackle breaks in 2015 nearly three times as many as the next best (Aaron Woods with 28).
The late acquisition of Tim Grant is unlikely to help replace Galloway and Taupau as he is a long way from the player he once was, averaging only 35 minutes per game as a bench player for Souths.
Finally, losing Pat Richards is a big blow as he not only took the goal-kicking responsibilities but was also still a first-rate finisher and veteran presence in an outside backs corps that will now feature only two players with over 50 games experience and none with more than 60.
Likely line-up
1. James Tedesco
2. David Nofoaluma
3. Tim Simona
4. Kevin Naiqama
5. Justin Hunt
6. Mitchell Moses
7. Luke Brooks
8. Aaron Woods
9. Robbie Farah
10. Sauaso Sue
11. Curtis Sironen
12. Chris Lawrence
13. Dene Halatau
14. Joel Edwards
15. Tim Grant
16. Ava Seumanufagai
17. Kyle Lovett
So what do you do when you’ve got two hookers who have both been 80-minute players for the majority of their careers, plus a young player who probably needs regular game time to develop? This will be the first big challenge of year two for coach Jason Taylor.
In this line-up I’ve plumped for the most obvious solution, which is to go with a four-forward bench and rely on the guy who plays 80 minutes at State of Origin level to do so at club level as well.
This means leaving out both Ballin and Cherrington. However, one can also imagine a scenario where the team does decide to reduce Farah’s workload by cutting him to perhaps 60 to 65 minutes.
But even then it makes no sense to carry Ballin on the bench as he is no one’s definition of an impact player. Cherrington is a much likelier candidate for that role in such a scenario.
In the forwards, it is also easy to imagine some re-packaging of this group and perhaps a role for players such as Jack Buchanan and recruit Michael Chee Kam who saw very limited action at the Sea Eagles after a stellar junior career at the Raiders. Overall, though, it is one of the weaker forward packs in the competition.
The backline seems to pick itself with journeyman winger Justin Hunt drafted in to replace Richards. The key will be to get all five of these players on the field at the same time on a consistent basis.
Each of Tedesco, Tim Simona and David Nofoaluma has missed significant time to injury over the last three or four seasons. In fact, even Simona, who has been the least injured of the trio, has still only appeared in 56 per cent of Tigers games over the last four seasons.
Player to watch: Mitchell Moses
While Brooks attracted more attention after his stellar rookie campaign in 2014, Moses was as much a part of the long-term plan for the Tigers. After his first-grade debut was delayed after some unpleasantness in an Under-20s Origin game, Moses made several impressive cameos at fullback in 2014.
However, he was unable to carry that form into a full-time role at five-eighth (or more accurately as right-side half given Brooks’ focus on the left edge) in 2015.
Moses’s defence, in particular, was troubling as he missed an appalling 83 tackles of 512 attempted, one of the worst rates in the competition along with James Maloney and Ben Hunt. The difference being that the latter two players had 20 and 18 try assists respectively at the other end of the park while Moses contributed only eight for the Tigers.
Until he improves substantially in defence or finds a way to prosper in attack despite being targeted in defence, the spotlight will remain firmly on Moses. Especially given the perception, rightly or wrongly, that Origin contender Austin was forced out to make way for him.
To add to the pressure on Moses in 2015, he is also likely to inherit the goal-kicking duties given the departure of Richards. While Richards was not among the top tier in goal-kickers, the Tigers are likely to need every point they can get and every missed conversion will only increase the pressure on Moses.
Predicted finish: Bottom four
Even if Farah and Taylor can now magically coexist. Even if the outside backs can stay healthy. Even if the young halves can arrest their regression and begin to become the players they were promised to be… even if all those things happen the Tigers still have one of the weakest forward packs in the competition.
It is hard to see them consistently giving the young halves the time and space they need to flourish. This will likely be another long year for the Tigers fans.
Follow Lachlan on Twitter @mrsports83
Marto
Guest
Lovett won`t make the team, he is a lightweight and that backrow is underwhelming.. Sirro has done nothing Halatau is always injured and Lawrence is a converted centre.. 1. James Tedesco 2. David Nofoaluma 3. Tim Simona 4. Kevin Naiqama 5. Jordan Rankin 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Luke Brooks 8. Aaron Woods 9. Robbie Farah 10. Tim Grant 11.Curtis Sironen 12.Chris Lawrence 13. Sauaso Sue 14. Matt Ballin 15. Billy Mcconnchie 16. Ava Seumanufagai 17. Rod Griffin
The Barry
Roar Guru
Once a knight is enough...
Western fuglie
Guest
I think tigers and panthers may surprise a few this year,shame Farrah was not detained for longer in the states I think a year or so over there would of done wonders for the Tigers ala matt lodge.
bushtiger
Guest
As fans We need to stay positive and supportive of the players, i'm sure they are keen to win every game they play. And coaches are the same. Speculation wont achieve much. Only Time will tell if this is a good year, but i have a feeling theres lots of pleasant surprises ahead. Once a tiger Always a tiger
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
With regard to Robbie being threatened with reserve grade, there is a fairly solid rumour going around that it was Reddy that issued the threat, not JT. The Tigers parted ways with Reddy not long after. If this is true, the fracture between Robbie and JT may be repaired, or papered over at least.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
Most rookie halves get to play next to an experienced campaigner. I don't recall two rookie halves playing together behind a beaten pack. It has been a tough initiation for them. That said, this is the year they have to make their mark, along with Sironen. If these guys begin to realise their potential, the Tigers could surprise many people. If not, it is going to be a long year.
Jeffrey Dun
Roar Rookie
Perhaps not, but Tiger fans (such as myself) did note that there was a material difference in his impact when coming off the bench compared to last year where he was in the starting side and playing big minutes. Almost all of Tapau's best games were coming off the bench for either the Tigers or NZ. In fact, I can recall only one outstanding game from him last year as a member of the starting side (against Souths). All the Tiger fans I have communicated with are sorry to see him go, but at the same time we recognise that perhaps having to fork out big money to retain him was not a value for money proposition; especially in light of the reduced interchange this year, which will require forwards to play longer minutes. I wish him well this year for Manly. He certainly has a presence on the field.
Birdy
Guest
Hope your right Heich, But there's a lot of frustrated fans out there and I'm not talking about on field performance.
Heich
Guest
WILL PROVE YOU ALL WRONG THIS YEAR. I AM A FAN OF TIGERS. WE"LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS. THE GAME HASNT BEEN PLAYED YET. GO TIGERS, smash all those critics wrongs and have their teams as bait
Ebony le Blanc
Guest
I am like you Birdy. I am holding off this year on Membership because I am appalled at this club. From all angles. Farah has allowed his ego to damage the club and his selfish attitude (including undermining the coaches) profoundly affected the team who pay him huge money to just play football. I understand wanting to get rid of him - Ballin is a perfect player - unselfish and skillful and wholehearted. But having said that the Club's handling of the Farah situation was disgraceful. Amateur hour at its worst. However the thing that upsets me most however is the atrocious player recruitment/retention. We had two of the games future superstars in Te Maire Martin and Marion Seve. We let both of them go!!! From what I hear we got rid of Martin, and Blake Austin as well, because the club is in love with Mitchell Moses. I don't understand this. Moses was very poor last year. Would not get a start in any other NRL side, yet the Tigers treat him like a superstar. Huh? I agree with the Roar article above that the spotlight will fall on Moses this year and it wont be pretty. And then we will realise our mistakes in who we let go. Yet our recruitment managers will keep their jobs. As they have for many many years. Hopeless administration. Hopeless culture. This is why I am not signing up this year. This mob just breaks your heart.
Birdy
Guest
Unfortunately TheBarry, you've hit the nail on the head. The Farrah / Taylor mess is the ticking time bomb. When Bennett put Thaiday on notice last year the broncos board said nothing and stayed out of it. If, or should it blow up in the first quarter of the season then the whole Tigers board should be held responsible . I keep putting off paying my membership this year for this very reason. I wonder how many more like me are out there.
East Bound & Down
Guest
I really see the raiders making it this year on the back of good recruiting , and this is the be all for the poison gnome , if he can't win games with this team he oughta give it away . The only question with Manly is the coach , if the Parrot can get them to gel I also think they'll be there , maybe not top two as predicted by a few here . To say the Roosters have no halves , well I thought they had Pearce and Hastings , sure MP will miss a few games early , and it amazes me how people write Pearce off as a below par halfback yet once he's out they predict doom and gloom for the Roosters . Souths , well I kinda agree with you on them smelling a bit off , but if Sammy B has a big year they'll certainly lift on the back of it. The Eels , if early form is anything to go by they're a better team than last year and may sneak in . The Panthers are a mystery . I can't predict an eight ,I think this year will be full of surprises , but I wouldn't be too shocked to see your boys fail to turn up on the back of the satisfaction of achieving their first after so many years if coming so close . Or it may steel them to do it again only time will tell .
The Barry
Roar Guru
Hard to see the Farah situation ending in anything other than tears. He's been very clear he doesn't want to play to the coaches game plan (because it doesn't revolve enough around him). The coach wanted him out of the club for a multitude of reasons but for as many reasons couldn't get rid of him. He threatened to play Farah in reserve grade but has since backed down. He's received little to no support from the board at a club with a burgeoning reputation for sacking coaches. Now we're supposed to believe it's all happy families and everyone is working together??? The halves continue to confound with best in the comp performances every 8 weeks but dross in between times. No doubt the team has the talent and they will cause a few boilovers when everyone plays to their potential but they're another team skinny on depth and their best performances are so sporadic that it's difficult to tip them at any time with any certainty.
Kingcowboy
Guest
Na mate, I am serious about that. But I agree I could be way off the mark. Who do you think will make the top 8?
Birdy
Guest
That's not fair Peeko, Your thinking logically, you must learn to think as a fan.
peeeko
Guest
they will struggle along with titans and knights. very poor pack by NRL standards but Tim Grant could get back to his best given he should get more playing time here. there best signing is a player who plays 80 mutes who will play behind another 80 minute player
East Bound & Down
Guest
Classic gee up KC , the Tigers make the eight and Souths , Chooks , Manly panthers , Eels and Raiders miss out , I'm surprised you didn't get more bites .
The Barry
Roar Guru
I don't recall too many tigers fans complaining about Tapau's contribution before he signed with Manly.
The eye
Guest
Jack Bird..didn't need time Kane Elgey ...didn't need time Tom T..didn't need time What is this lump of an excuse about these Tiger halves..look at Tedesco,proves himself,imo,the most complete fullback in the NRL in one season ! Godot will turn up before these two.. best scenario 2nd last on points differential..
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
If you're relying on Grant and Edwards to bolster your forward pack its going to be a long year. Grant was mediocre at best in 2015 and Edwards dropped behind three players for a bench spot let alone a starting gig at the Raiders. Could either or both have a comeback year? Sure but i'd be very nervous counting on that. Disagree on Taupau who i think will be terrific for the Sea Eagles. Far from a bench player he started all but one game he played last year and averaged a tick under 50 minutes. Comparable minutes to other power locks like Taumalolo, Eastwood and Merrin whilst breaking the second most tackles for a lock and and the fourth most offloads. However i've definitely heard this sentiment from a number of Tigers fans now so i'm prepared to believe that there is something about his performances that disappoints fans who watch more closely than any non-fan really can.