Our first three teams in The Roar‘s 2016 NRL preview series were all teams that finished towards the bottom of the table in 2015.
While the Newcastle Knights, Wests Tigers and Gold Coast Titans will be looking to rebuild via incremental improvements in 2016, our next team has different aspirations.
The New Zealand Warriors have swung for the fence in recruitment and will be looking for major improvement and indeed a title challenge.
FULL 2016 NRL PREVIEW SERIES
NRL season preview: Newcastle Knights
NRL season preview: Wests Tigers
NRL season preview: Gold Coast Titans
2015 in review: Contention then capitulation
The review for the Warriors’ 2015 is summed up by a picture of the moment Shaun Johnson shattered his ankle scoring a try against the Sea Eagles in Round 20.
Up until that point the team was actually having a good season. With nine wins and eight losses the Warriors were sitting in eighth and seemed poised to make a run into the finals a la 2011. Instead, they capitulated without their talismanic halfback, falling to 13th on the back of an eight-game losing streak.
Off-season story: Ivan Cleary fired by the Panthers
It was the last thing that current Warriors coach Andrew McFadden needed: a well-regarded predecessor unexpectedly popping back on the market.
McFadden faces increased expectations since signing two of the top-20 players in the NRL. And the Panthers’ dismissal of Cleary has only sped up the clock for McFadden to find success.
Whether Cleary is interested in a return to Auckland or not, the perception will be there that every loss is inching his return closer. Unless the team starts very strongly that chatter is only going to increase.
Roster management
2016 gains: Blake Ayshford, Ali Lauitiiti, Issac Luke, Jeff Robson, Ligi Sao, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck.
2016 losses: Brad Abbey, David Bhana, Glen Fisiiahi, Nathan Friend, Siliva Havili, Sebastine Ikahihifo, Ngani Laumape, Suaia Matagi, Dominique Peyroux, Sam Rapira, Sam Tomkins, Chad Townsend.
If I offered you the best attacking dummy half in the competition and fullback, who is almost certainly Neo from the Matrix, is that something you might be interested in?
After years of chasing the big-name free agents such as Kieran Foran and Sonny Bill Williams, the Warriors finally landed the big one when they signed Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Then they basically got Issac Luke for free when internal ructions at Souths reportedly led the energetic dummy half to look elsewhere.
There is little doubt that Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck are absolutely top-tier talents in the NRL. The only real question will be how quickly they can settle into their new team. If they do adjust quickly this team may well be in contention for the top four.
However, the recruitment season wasn’t entirely a winning one for the club. In a team that is bringing otherworldly talents like Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck, it seems a little odd to say that the loss of Chad Townsend may actually hurt them.
In 22 games for the Warriors in 2015, Townsend recorded 11 try assists and six linebreak assists. He also ran the ball six times for 58 metres per game while making 20 tackles a game (and missing a little over two per game, a reasonable rate for a half). In short he was a decent, if not spectacular, NRL half.
But when the guy wearing the number seven is perhaps the most creative and frenetic half in the game when playing well, that ‘know what you’re getting’ foil was exactly what the mercurial Shaun Johnson needed. That steadiness may well be missed.
Meanwhile, the signing of Blake Ayshford is perhaps the most perplexing move any team has made in recent memory. Why in the world the team that produces a fresh batch of super talented outside backs every year needs to sign a mediocre centre from the Sharks’ NSW Cup team is mystifying.
Likely line-up
1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
2. Jonathan Wright
3. Solomone Kata
4. Tuimoala Lolohea
5. Manu Vatuvei
6. Thomas Leuluai
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Jacob Lillyman
9. Issac Luke
10. Ben Matulino
11. Ryan Hoffman
12. Bodene Thompson
13. Simon Mannering
14. Raymond Faitala-Mariner
15. Ben Henry
16. Sam Lisone
17. Albert Vete
There are a couple of key questions initially. The first being who will complement Johnson in the halves. In this line-up, I’ve selected Thomas Leuluai but he is probably better suited to playing at dummy half (and may see some time off the bench as a utility if the club wants to manage Luke’s minutes).
The other options are Jeff Robson, a serviceable professional who probably won’t hurt you too much but is also unlikely to win you any games. But the most intriguing possibility is moving young star in the making Tuimoala Lolohea from the outside backs to the halves.
Lolohea did pinch hit at the position in the tail end of 2015 and did a fair impression of a half. Moving Lolohea would also reopen a centre spot for the oft-injured, oft-dropped Konrad Hurrell who remains very large and very fast and if he can keep his knees to himself could still prove to be a very effective first grader.
The forward pack is rock solid, if lacking in a certain panache that was long associated with the Warriors. Ben Matulino and Simon Mannering are, unsurprisingly, the standouts, however players like Bodene Thompson and Raymond Faitala-Mariner also outplayed their billing (and presumably their pay packets) in 2015.
Meanwhile, while Matulino and Jacob Lillyman were typically excellent, the future is also secure with young props Albert Vete and Sam Lisone providing fine service in limited minutes. If those two continue to develop, this pack will give players like Johnson, Luke and Tuivasa-Sheck the space they need.
Player to watch: Shaun Johnson
In the first 18 games of 2015 Shaun Johnson recorded 12 try assists, eight linebreak assists and 14 line breaks and was running the ball just over five times a game for 55 metres. All of which are solid to good numbers but a long way from the numbers put up by the top tier of halves.
Certainly they were a long way from the sort of contribution that one expects from the incumbent New Zealand halfback and a long way from the perception of Johnson as fleet-footed chaos machine. Indeed Johnson recorded four games in which he didn’t record a single try assist, linebreak assist or linebreak.
So it is fair to say that even before the injury, 2015 was a down year for Johnson, who at his best makes a mess of defensive structures with his truly ridiculous first step and creative passing game. But now he faces not just reclaiming his playing mojo but doing so while easing his way back into football after a serious injury, the type which has permanently encumbered players in the past.
Predicted finish: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
It is a bit of a cliché to say that the Warriors will be unpredictable. But it is extremely difficult to project a team that not only just turned over three-quarters of its spine and in the process brought in two outstanding internationals, but also faces questions marks about Shaun Johnson’s fitness.
Johnson’s spectacular performance and free running at the Auckland Nines was encouraging but the test is to maintain that performance.
One thing is certain, a spine that includes three singular talents like Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is flames. But whether the fire is destroying the Warriors or the opposition is yet to be seen.
watcher
Guest
As a Warriors supporter I find it hard to disagree with the comments above, which I think have been well thought through. There are a couple of points of difference to the Warriors this year I would like to point out. Jim Doyle has been a revelation since coming on board. The front office is sorted and recruitment is now on track, his first two signings were Luke and RTS, which no one could say was not impressive. Isaac Luke is the other, for what seems like a century we have had Nathan Friend at dummy half. He is a brave committed bloke but couldn't impose himself and drive the Warriors pack round the park. Off field his attitude is rubbing off on what is generally a young squad. He will be vital, as back up there is Leuluei and Roach who looks the goods but surely a bit early for him. I believe the Warriors forwards are sorted. At this moment only RTS, Vatuvei, Johnson and Robson are locked in for round one. So for Centres and one Wing you have Maumalo, Wright, Ayshford, Hurrell, Lolohea, Fusitua, Kata and perhaps Henry. It is sorely tempting for sensibility to have someone like Wright there. He was signed for depth but I think the team will be RTS, Vatuvei, Lolohea, Hurrell, Kata, SJ, Robson, Vete, Luke, Lillyman, Hoffman, Henry,Mannering, bench Gavet, Lisone, Matulino, Thompson. I just think Matulino could be more devastating against a tiring pack. As usual with the Warriors that team could tear apart anybody, and on a bad day be torn apart by anybody. There seems to be a new harder edge about this squad, hopefully it translates on to the field, at their best there is no team better to watch.
Penrith Punter
Roar Guru
Agree with your assessment. The Warriors even with their killer spine aren't complete certainties for the 8. Love the ¯\_(ツ)_/¯, sums it up perfectly. Warriors in the GF would be killer though.
Spiritfree
Guest
Chad Townsend only went well as a foil to Shaun Johnson. He's short on talent. Leuluai has form for over-calling Johnson, so it's great that Robsob is likely to be starting the season. A solid defender and went well in the Nines, doing everything right. Wright is seen as being Mr Dependable, but I can run faster and there's no flair. However, he can defend and is solid under the high ball, which is his attraction over the multitude of classy-in-attack outside backs the Warriors have. BUT the Warriors have a new defence coach and if he has been able to work miracles with the likes of Kata, Lolohea and Hurrell, even Ken Maumalo, the Warriors will be unstoppable. Forwards, Hoffman is perhaps starting to show his age, Lillyman doesn't always play to his best. Some might say those are the best of the pack, but Matulino, Mannering, Bodene Thompson, youngsters Vete, Lisone, the completely fearless Charlie Gubb, these are all first class forwards. Coach Andrew McFadden - for me a big question mark hangs over this man. In the back end of last season he took some very strange decisions, including in one game swapping a heap of players from the positions they were used to, moving them from their usual side of the pitch to the other. It was a failure, as anyone could have predicted. He also imposed a rigid attacking structure over them, with Chad Townsend as his lieutenant, when anyone with half a brain knows that the Warriors kill other teams with their unpredictable attacking play, when their natural flair is allowed free rein. It's a problem for him. He was a half, so "he knows". But actually, the Warriors players know better than he does how to score points. They've shown that time and again. Three things need to happen: 1. Iron out the defensive issues with the outside backs. 2. The new team has to gel. 3. McFadden has to lighten his pull on the reins. If all three boxes are ticked, the sky's the limit for the Warriors.
Tom Rock
Expert
Roger is due for an injury. Every man and his dog will be trying to ensure he eats as much turf as possible this season. I have my doubts he gets through a full season in 2016. I predict McFadden leads the Warriors to a pedestrian 8th place and a week one exit of the finals. Bring on Bellamy.
maximillian
Guest
Yep, Doyle & owner Eric Watson have both said the Warriors best chance at luring stars is to target the top 20 odd Kiwis playing in the NRL, as the star Aussies are unlikely to come. Jim Doyle is sorting out the front office which definitely helps & the players appear to be more professional so Im optimistic a good 2016 is in the offing. Lets go Warriors!
Up the Wahs
Roar Guru
Fusitua in for Wright, he has a lot more to offer on the edge, I would even consider Kata as a wing, his service in the centres to the Beast leaves a lot to be desired. Anyway Lets Gone Warriors
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
”... a spine that includes three singular talents like Issac Luke, Shaun Johnson and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is flames. But whether the fire is destroying the Warriors or the opposition is yet to be seen.” Gold!
MAX
Guest
maximillion, A perusal of the NZ team list shows what your team is missing. Too many stars play away. If Jim Doyle could get (say) a Bromwich and/or Proctor to come home the Warriors become instant top4, especially with the RTS and Luke on board. Good luck for season 2016.
The eye
Guest
I'm waiting for the day RTS stands up in a game that REALLY matters..cometh the hour disappeareth the man,time after time.. SJ looked fragile on the weekend,fans are going to have their hearts in their mouth every time he gets tackled.. Surely their best 17 wont include the 2 sharks,Robbo and Jono..yep,Lolo at 6 and men mountains Manu and Maumalo on the wings..power and pace in the line..
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Haha that's a fair point about the fence sitting but i just really wanted to use the shrug emoji as a team prediction. If pressed i'd say the real tier for them is the "make the eight" tier (for which you'll start to see teams nominated next week). This year i think they just have too much quality to capitulate as they have in the past (except of course for 2011 where they did the opposite). I can definitely see the argument for Lolohea but i still think i'd err towards him at centre and allow Robson to do the kicking and organising along with Johnson. Lolohea will still get his touches but it will come with less responsibility.
Birdy
Guest
No matter what your qualifications as a coach , it must be a scarey job especially coaching the warriors. Imagine McFadden , he would be on top of the world with his new roster then Gus has an inspirational moment causing at least 3 NRL coaches to have nightmares. How could anyone coach the warriors with Ivan Cleary waiting in the wings? Reading what Terry Lamb had to say about the Dogs , I bet even Des is hoping that Cleary picks up a gig real soon.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Bit disappointed you have sat in the fence with your first challenge Lachlan. Warriors follow the same pattern every year. Start poorly. Win 7 of 8 through origin to be declared everyone's 'smokey'. Then collapse in the back end. I'm really looking forward to seeing this team go round but am going to avoid the hype until they prove it. I would put Lolohea in the 6. He is s natural 5/8. I think he needs to be settled into a position for the good of his game rather than playing every position. He's one of the most talented players in the NRL.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Absolutely, opposition kick chase will need to be on point or the Warriors could regularly be inside their half in two or three tackles. RTS led the league in kick return metres last year and that's before you count him taking it from dummy half or from first receiver on first or second tackle after one of his wingers takes the initial return.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Ah i didn't realise Leuluai was hurt. Agree then it probably will be Robson who gets the nod initially. As you say he'll be a steady option to complement Johnson the way that Townsend did last season
Al
Guest
As you say Lachlan, their season is going to depend heavily on how Luke and RTS settle, and how other teams handle them. Can you imagine how effective they could be on the first couple of rucks coming out of their end? RTS bringing the ball back and then while the line is still fragmented, Luke coming in an pinching another 15-20.
maximillian
Guest
The Warriors will go good this year. They rely heavily on Johnson so his injury basically ended their season last year, but RTS & Luke provide a few more threats in the spine positions so they aren't just a '1 man team'. The biggest concern is still the defence on the edges, particularly the left side of Kata/Vatuvei. Lolohea is a gun in the making so Im happy for him to fill in at right centre. He will shore up that side better than the rocks & diamonds you get from Hurrell.
maximillian
Guest
Leuluai is still injured & unlikely to play until round 4 so I think Robson will start at 5/8. He's a steady hand & a good foil to the mercurial Johnson. The Warriors will make the 8 this year for sure.
Parrafan
Guest
Sad to see Glen Fisiiah move to union. He seemed to have a bucketload of talent but just couldn't stop getting injured. Agree with the conclusion. Warriors could go really well, or really badly. I hope they go well because seeing Johnson and RTS firing at the same time will be a sight to behold.
peeeko
Guest
at age 25 Robson had barely played a first grade game, pretty unbelievable he is still here