The news that champion openside and maul-based try-scoring machine David Pocock is contemplating a sabbatical year of study at either Cambridge or Oxford is not so much of a surprise to the Australian rugby fraternity.
Pocock’s decision to re-sign with the ARU and the Brumbies for just the 2016 season was always going to fuel speculation as to his plans for 2017, but the concept of him taking a year off rugby to study or scratch his numerous charitable itches was always said to be on the cards, and was viewed as Pocock wanting to do something for himself in order to extend his playing career.
It was, and still is, hard to argue.
More rugby:
» David Pocock could take a sabbatical from rugby
» Bill Pulver flexible, Brumbies not so much
» Liam Gill to leave the Reds after 2016
» Super Rugby format explained
The news on Wednesday about Liam Gill, however, was somewhat from left field.
The Queensland Reds confirmed the prolific 23-year-old ball-thief would be heading to the endless rucks and open chequebooks of the French Top 14 competition, having signed a deal of unspecified length with super-spenders Toulon.
When Gill re-signed with the Reds last year, albeit for just the one further season after knocking back a serious approach from the Melbourne Rebels, the general presumption was that this was Gill giving the club and particularly coach Richard Graham 12 months to convince him staying at Ballymore beyond 2016 was worth his while.
No doubt the lack of interest from the Wallabies coach since then has been a major factor in Gill’s decision. If one of the leading ball-winners in the country cannot rate among the top three openside options for a Rugby World Cup, then there probably isn’t a lot of point him remaining in Australia – no matter how good the Reds’ rebuild is, or how good an offer the Western Force tabled.
Gill’s “I feel I have done as much as I can in Australian rugby and now look to enjoy a new opportunity” was as pointed as it was sufficiently explanatory in this regard.
The irony now is that Pocock shapes as an option to replace Gill, and return home to Brisbane.
Brumbies’ CEO Michael Jones is walking back down a dangerous path if he maintains the position behind his “my preferred solution, and our offer to him, doesn’t allow a break” quote.
Even if the Brumbies thought they had met every one of skipper Stephen Moore’s requests during his recent negotiation, Jones comprehensively lost the PR battle with a press release as strongly worded as none other I can recall in all my time, to convey the Brumbies’ disappointment at the time.
Continuing to play hardball with Pocock – named the ACT’s Australia Day Ambassador as much for his off-field exploits less than three weeks ago – would show nothing was learnt from the Moore episode. Is Jones really prepared to gamble seasons 2018 and 2019 on making Pocock play in 2017? It’d be ballsy.
Of course, the Brumbies may well read the tea leaves and revise their offer. There is still, as Jones said, “a fair bit of water to go under the bridge” until the deal is done. But Pocock himself told me for ABC Grandstand the same week as his Australia Day gong that a new deal was something he was “keen to sort out sooner rather than later”.
Brumbies fans will certainly be hoping the conversations continue. And if they don’t, you can be sure the Reds will be hovering in the background.
‘If not playing in 2017 is what it would take for you to wear a Reds jersey in 2018 and 2019 and return home to your family, David, sure we can find a way of making that happen,’ is how I imagine the phone call would go.
And that’s without even thinking about offers from Europe or Japan. Already I’ve heard whispers of a French offer a long way north of $2.5 million per season.
In the short term, though, where once the Wallabies’ options at openside seemed to run waist-deep, the departure of Gill and the looming Pocock sabbatical make the cupboard appear a bit Mother Hubbard-like.
Presuming Michael Hooper stays fit, the race to be his understudy suddenly puts Sean McMahon, Jarrad Butler, Colby Fainga’a and the like firmly into the frame.
Butler, off contract at the end of this season, could quite easily find the Reds on the other end of the phone regardless of any Pocock decision.
Fringe players like Chris Alcock, Kane Koteka and Richard Hardwick over in the west, Jack Dempsey and Boyd Killingworth in Sydney, and even Michael Gunn in Queensland might suddenly find themselves in demand, too, and good luck to them.
But while all of those guys are useful players at their current levels, it’s really only McMahon that sticks out as Test quality at this stage. Wallabies coach Michael Cheika clearly rates him, and he played very well alongside Pocock and Scott Fardy in the 15-6 win over Wales during the Rugby World Cup, when deputising for the suspended Hooper.
But if Pocock sits out 2017, then a Hooper-McMahon double team will hardly strike fear among the ruck monkeys of world rugby. Both players were able to play as well as they did in 2015 because of the guys wearing No.6 and 8 beside them.
Australia’s return to the top of the tree has to involve a competitive over-the-ball unit, and with Pocock and Gill going or gone, it’s suddenly alarming as to where such vital playing attributes might come from.
ForceFan
Guest
Meanwhile 34yo Matt Hodgson just keeps on doing what he does. In his first run for 2016 his 50 minutes against some big units in the Pacific Dragons Hodgo earned 2 TOW, numerous tackles, some solid ball carries and a try from the back of a rolling maul. Like good red wine - just gets better with age.
ForceFan
Guest
In SXV 2014 Hooper earned turnovers at the rate of 1.3 TOW/80 minutes. He has not shown this level of involvement/effectiveness since - at any level. This may be to make the most of his attacking flair. The reality is that when Pocock isn't playing for the Wallabies somebody has to step up as our regular No 6 and No 8 earn 1.5-2.0 TOW between them. Or we decide to not put any pressure on the opposition at the breakdown. A strategy that has proved to have a low success rate in Tests. I've made time to watch replays of the Wallabies' RWC 2015 games. It now appears that opposition players have worked out how to easily/quickly move Hooper off the ball at the breakdown where they struggle to move Pocock. Hooper is still strong if/when he gets in early enough - but that is not very often.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I agree, but I think some judgement should be reserved based on him rarely playing at 7. What role is he instructed to offer? Michael Hooper has in some seasons been very effective at the breakdown, and others minimally effective. Is he instructed to play differently? But most importantly, can either offer more if instructed?
Sam
Guest
For so long reputation was the criteria for Wallabies selection. Cheika has made it about ability. What is needed is the selection of players who will play flat out and with courage for 80 minutes with cohesion.
Chivas
Guest
Is that the best you have Ken. TBH you know a lot.more about the drink than me. I've never tried it. But I guess it is no less boorish ior relevant to any of your other comments and posts. Thanks for sharing. [Mods. Warning. PLS refrain from personal comments]
Stah man
Guest
Not sure I completely agree, without pocock and gill (who can be considered cheikas 4th or 5th choice) the wallabies already have plenty more options at 7 than any other country. Hooper and McMahon are the obvious choices and I like the look of jordy Reid at the rebels plus Matt hodgson will probably keep going till he's about 40. I've also heard that George smith might get brought into to Canberra to cover pocock in 2017 although I don't see that as too likely. The only real issue is that of those players only Reid is a specialist fetcher
Bakkies
Guest
Won on the last minute after Pocock came on to hit rucks and Meyer subbed his best performer in Bismarck.
Bakkies
Guest
Hooper left due to White preferring a bigger 7. He picked him there after he made his decision to leave.
PeterK
Roar Guru
RobC - At super level there is no one else for the tahs to do pilfers so it should be Hoopers role.
RobC
Roar Guru
ooops link fubar. This is the correct one:
RobC
Roar Guru
Pete, the S15 numbers for Hoops is for a role at 7, which is not aligned to other 7s. Whilst Sean stats, playing blindside is highly aligned, because that is his role. http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/wallabies-by-the-numbers-openside/
ForceFan
Guest
I'm always interested to see how players turn SXV Stats into test stats. IMO to maintain the same level of input is good and to operate at a higher level is excellent. To operate at less than SXV is one indicator that not quite at Test level (or being asked to perform a different role) Key personnel from RWC (Av per 80 mins): Pocock: 38T (18A/20D); 3.5 TOW (14% less than SXV av. More TOW) Hooper: 29T (19A/10D); 0.4 TOW (Same as SXV) McMahon: 27T (20A/7D); 0 TOW (18% less on rucks. Less TOW) Out of interest: Fardy: 32T (17A/15D); 0.9 TOW (10% more on rucks, same TOW) McCalman: 28T (19A/9D); 0.7 TOW (40% more on rucks, same TOW)
winediamond
Guest
Michael Jones is a total clown. Steven Moore bought a new house in Canberra, & recently moved in. Why would he do this if he was intending to leave ??, What happened ??. Does Jones think that standover tactics will work with an idealist like Pocock ??? What a moron. What an egomaniac. What a fool !!!.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Train for clarifying. Just as well they didn't come from the 9s programme. Then FF will share with us SeanMc's box kicking statistics ;p SeanMc will not be a successful modern WB 6. He will need to move to 7. Currently, Seans stats are classic Aussie blindside stats. His job in the Rebs is not to pilfer. http://www.greenandgoldrugby.com/wallabies-by-the-numbers-blindside/ The sooner he moves to 7, the sooner he can be a long term openside. He can hug trees and get his PhD after he wins all the medals.
Zero Gain
Guest
The comment has some value. I think Poey would rather play 7 and Cheika has really demoted him to a second choice position. Maybe the writing is on the wall?
ForceFan
Guest
Thnx for the clarification TWAS. SMcM shows the benefit of his 7s background but not complete No 7 program. Aplogies Colby - Fianga'a.
PeterK
Roar Guru
there are so few of them, and for 6, Fardy is getting on.
nickoldschool
Guest
That's exactly how I see it Shane. Question is, is having a better shot at winning a rwc every four years better for Rugby as a whole in oz, nz and sa? SH nations in rugby are the only countries who have prioritise their NT this way. No other nations have tailored their domestic comps just to satisfy their NT (bar cricket but again it's the same nations). Am sure all other countries have thought about this for football, basket, hand, volley, ice hockey etc but they have realised club sports is their bread and butter.
jemainok
Guest
I think it is Subject association, you talk about losing flankers, so he has talked about NZ losing flankers as well. I like your articles though they are very informative. And you seem to be one of the most balanced Australian writers keep up your good work bro.
PeterK
Roar Guru
FF - Thanks. Stats show how similar Hooper and McMahon are re the ruck which is what a lot have said.