Carlton: Another year of the Blues

Getting the prediction out of the way early, Carlton will be the second to last placed team in the competition this year. Admittedly not a terribly bold prediction.

The structure of the Blues’ best 22 might, however, raise some questions.

In particular, Carlton’s best 22 (listed below) actually contains three players who predominantly play in the ruck, in addition to Levi Casboult, who has played significant minutes as a back up ruckman.

The ideal team would have fewer rucks than this in order to be optimally mobile but for the Blues in 2016 this is probably the best of a bad situation.

Andrew Phillips is a useful pick-up for the team and in tandem with Matthew Kreuzer, these two should be the first choice ruck pairing for the club.

Kreuzer, though, is fairly effective as a forward when fit, at least more so than the other ruck/forwards on this list, and is one of the few established key forwards at the club.

With Kreuzer as a key forward the club can afford to play Cameron Wood, who is ahead of Daniel Gorringe in terms of overall output. Casboult then would play exclusively as a key forward which will be beneficial for him as a player. It would allow him to rely exclusively on outworking defenders and taking pack marks close to goal, which despite his shortcomings, he is actually pretty good at.

In practice, Charlie Curnow, Jacob Weitering and other youngsters will be given a go, which makes sense for the future but is not necessarily the best ‘win-now’ version of this team. Although an above average first year performance in the first month of the season could see Weitering and Curnow unseat experienced players.

The rest of the forward line is comprised of Dennis Armfield as a small forward, Andrejs Everitt as the high-half forward and Kristian Jaksch as a third tall forward.

Jaksch, at 196 centimetres, is probably taller and less mobile than a team might prefer for this third tall role, which makes an already ruck heavy team slightly more top heavy and even less mobile. He also played in defence for most of 2015, although I think he is yet to find an identity and position to call his own.

In turn, this places a fair amount of extra pressure on Armfield, Everitt and midfielders rotating through the forward like Dale Thomas, to tackle and pin the ball inside 50. In addition, I have Andrew Walker listed on a wing as a midfielder and in truth he probably plays his best football as a mobile high half-forward in the mould of Brett Deledio from 2015.

This top heaviness could have been mitigated by the Blues’ somewhat mobile backline where midfielders Kade Simpson and Sam Docherty play as effective running defenders. I have, however, named Simon White, Sam Rowe and Michael Jamison in the best 22 meaning one of them (Jamison) had to be named on the bench.

This in turn puts the Blues down one midfield rotation, which is compounded by already being a big side. There are enough ways to rotate players around that will ensure the midfield is rested effectively. Moreover, there just aren’t enough genuine midfielders on the list who should push any of these key defenders, rucks or forwards out of the best 22.

It is worth mentioning that I have Zach Tuohy as the small defender for this team, a role he occupied in the 2015 All-Australian team.

Ultimately the most experienced version of this Carlton team would still produce the worst 22 relative to every other team’s best 22. Nevertheless, the of lack of quality midfield depth and youth will mean this team will struggle to collect a lot of possession, which is usually a bad recipe for winning games.

As a tall team with at least one extra ruck and a few forwards whose number one strength is marking, if Carlton are going to struggle they might as well have a point of difference. In this way, the Blues might look to extend smaller backlines and find height mismatches for their taller players to beat opponents in the air.

Best midfielder: Marc Murphy
There is only one other contender for this mantle at Carlton in 2016 and that’s Bryce Gibbs. These two are comfortably the best players at the club in 2016.

This might be a compliment to Murphy and Gibbs until you look at the age and projected value of the whole list, which leads you to the conclusion that these excellent players will probably never have great success at the club.

Murphy is likely to gather near enough to 30 possessions a game and lay four or five tackles. Although Patrick Cripps is on the rise, Gibbs is good and Ed Curnow is serviceable, a lot falls to Murphy to pressure defensively, win the ball, attack and score. If he performs as projected and avoids injury he will be Carlton’s 2016 best and fairest.

As a side note, the ruthless economic rationalist in me says Murphy (and Gibbs) should look to be traded at the end of 2016. This would not only be in the best interest of the players but also for the club.

If we think that a five-year timeframe is realistic for Carlton to become a dominant premiership contending side then by this stage both Murphy and Gibbs will be in decline, albeit still good players. At least five players on the current list will be more valuable than Murphy and Gibbs by 2020 (Cripps, Curnow, Jason Tutt, Docherty and Nick Graham).

Trading Murphy and Gibbs would equal a full and comprehensive rebuild and would allow the club to go into the draft and find the next crop of superstars who will complement those core five players.

Best defender: Kade Simpson
It’s debatable to even call Simpson a defender. Sure enough, his role is rarely to quell an opposition forward and so in the traditional sense of what a defender does Simpson almost doesn’t qualify. Nevertheless, he has carved out a place for himself as a running half-back, is named as a half-back at selection and gains most of his possession in the back half.

It is also worth acknowledging the modern concept of AFL defences, which clearly preferences players who can get and use the ball themselves as opposed to simply stopping an opponent. One-on-one marking contests will never be Simpson’s forte but given the pressure that this team’s defence has been placed under in recent years his steady hand and efficient disposal is crucial.

Defence is not simply the act of locking arms with another player and punching the ball away from his hands. Defence is reading the play, running to link with fellow defenders, winning ground balls before your opponent arrives and taking the ball away from your opponent with effective disposal.

On these fronts, Simpson is as good a defender as there is and projects as Carlton’s best backman in 2016. Apologies to Zach Tuohy who is going to be a great defender of small forwards for a while to come.

Best forward: Andrejs Everitt
Again we have a definitional issue with Everitt. Although he has played forward a lot in his career, he has performed well in almost every other position. Indeed, Everitt is one of the truest examples of a modern utility player who can fulfill almost any role, owing to his all-round skill and combination of height and speed.

To some extent he wins this honour by default as Carlton do not possess a dominant key forward or even an established goal-kicker. Casboult has very solid hands, but does little else, Kreuzer is a flexible ruck/forward and young players like Charlie Curnow and Jaksch may well develop in the future. Yet none of these players are more valuable than Everitt in the forward line and his ability to act as a conduit between the midfield and forward line will be crucial.

Provided he stays uninjured, Everitt projects as a 15-17 possession high half-forward, albeit one who doesn’t provide as much defensive pressure as you might like from a mobile forward.

Biggest strength: Ruck depth and flexibility
I think with Kreuzer, Phillips, Cam Wood, Daniel Gorringe and Casboult having the ability to pinch hit, this club actually has a really deep ruck rotation, unlike many other clubs.

This is a hand forced a little bit by Kreuzer’s past injury problems, Cam Wood only really being relied on as a stop gap and the others being young and unknown in some respects. In any case, all but Gorringe are in the best 22 players and even Gorringe would not be a poor immediate replacement for Wood.

These rucks are also different from one another so that the club can experiment with mobile ruck options or with genuine tap ruck options. If you did play an extra ruck option and ‘went tall’, the team might also be able to work over teams with one player who plays almost the whole game in that position.

This team is not going to be able to pick one player to go up against Todd Goldstein, Aaron Sandilands or Sam Jacobs by themselves for the entire match. So if they decide to play that extra ruck they might find an advantage by working over these players with a number of options and stretching defences in the air when that extra ruck rests forward.

Incidentally, this depth is complimented by three extremely good mids in Cripps, Murphy and Gibbs (even if Gibbs had an average 2015). These players are the club’s best but by themselves can’t justify the midfield being the club’s biggest strength.

Biggest weakness: Unpredictable youth
This answer is a bit of a cop out. It is clear that the club has decided to rebuild and it is known that young players both take time to improve and can be inconsistent. I have not put any of the club’s 2015 draft picks in the best 22 but they will naturally find opportunities.

Having said that, my proposed best 22 is pretty young even without 2015 draft picks. Charlie Curnow and Jacob Weitering will have their opportunities, but Carlton’s youthfulness will not help them win in 2016.

These young players will struggle for continuity and consistency straight away and this will at times make the blueprint for success seem either unclear or a long way away.

Best 22 average output
Carlton: 11.14.80
Opponent: 11.10.76
Likely wins: 2 – 5

At their best Carlton can be competitive concentrating on low-possession defence. But even at their best, this team has too few stars, too many developing youngsters and too much imbalance to win many games.

The Blues will not start favourite in any game this year (maybe against Essendon) and if injuries start to stack up they could feasibly not win a single game.

History suggests even the last-placed team will pinch a win or two, and given Essendon’s troubles Carlton should be competitive against them in their two meetings this year. But this is the beginning of a stark rebuild and as such a year of patience will be required for Carlton fans.

Best 22
Backs: Lachie Plowman, Sam Rowe, Zach Tuohy
Halfbacks: Kade Simpson, Simon White, Sam Docherty
Centre: Ed Curnow, Patrick Cripps, Andrew Walker
Half-forwards: Dale Thomas, Matthew Kreuzer, Andrejs Everitt
Forwards: Dennis Armfield, Levi Casboult, Kristian Jaksch
Followers: Andrew Phillips, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs
Interchange: Jason Tutt, Nick Graham, Michael Jamison, Cameron Wood