After a week and a half of hard slog in our 2016 NRL preview series we now get to teams that were actually quite successful in 2015. Well successful enough to make the eight and in the case of today’s team, the Dragons, get knocked out in Week 1.
2015 in review: Defensive grit
2015 was an up and down year for the Dragons, as coach Paul MacGregor, who had taken over mid-2014, began to put his imprint on the team.
The team began strongly, winning eight of their first 11 games on the back of incredible defence, conceding under 12 points a game over that stretch.
However, while the defence was robust, the attack was anaemic and as the season wore on the team simply wasn’t able to score enough points to compete, as the defensive intensity inevitably dropped away.
This trend carried all the way through to the elimination final, which they lost 11-10 to the Bulldogs.
However it is worth remembering that expectations were not high for the team at the beginning of the year, and while fans may have ended up disappointed at the team’s exit, simply making the eight was an achievement
Offseason story: Recruitment hits and misses
As a team at the bottom end of the eight with a lot of space to grow, it was inevitable the club would be linked to a number of off-contract players. So it was, as the Dragons were reportedly in on players like James Roberts and Jack Bird before landing one quality player, Tim Lafai from the Bulldogs, as part of the great centre-go-round of 2015.
Roster management
2016 gains: Kalifa Faifai Loa, Siliva Havili, Sebastine Ikahihifo, Tim Lafai, Dunamis Lui, Kurt Mann, Mose Masoe, Josh McCrone, Russell Packer
2016 losses: Craig Garvey, Dan Hunt, Justin Hunt, Heath L’Estrange , Trent Merrin, Eto Nabuli, Dane Nielsen, Rory O’Brien, Charly Runciman
Lots of movement here, but not all that much substance.
The team has made several moves to bolster their forward pack, however few were particularly inspiring.
Enormous former Rooster and Panther Mose Masoe has spent the past two seasons in the Super League and would have brought valuable size and experience. Sadly however, Masoe tore his ACL in preseason and will miss most if not the entire season.
Of the other forward recruits, players like Sebastine Ikahihifo and Dunamis Lui have been fringe first graders throughout their careers, while it remains to be seen whether former Warrior Russell Packer can return to football at an elite level after several years out of the game.
The team’s backline recruits are no more impressive. Kurt Mann was solid enough during his time at the Storm but there is always a question mark about how well a former Storm player will perform when they don’t have that team’s nurturing framework and star teammates around them.
Lafai however is a good player, and many Bulldogs fans could be forgiven for wondering why the team allowed him to depart simply to recruit the underwhelming Will Hopoate.
On the other side of the coin, losing Trent Merrin is a huge blow. Not only was he a critical part of the team’s success in 2015, he is also tailor-made for a reduced interchange league with his ability to play big minutes as either a genuine front rower or in a power lock role.
Of the other losses, the most significant are probably Eto Nabuli and Heath L’Estrange. Nabuli was the team’s third-highest try scorer in 2015 with seven in just 13 games, but was lost to the game altogether, having moved to rugby union. L’Estrange meanwhile performed well as backup to hooker Mitch Rein, however the club may be eying an 80-minute role for the impressive Rein this season.
Likely line-up
1. Kurt Mann
2. Peter Mata’utia
3. Euan Aitken
4. Josh Dugan
5. Jason Nightingale
6. Gareth Widdop
7. Benji Marshall
8. Lesson Ah Mau
9. Mitch Rein
10. Russell Packer
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Joel Thompson
13. Mike Cooper
14. Ben Creagh
15. Dunamis Lui
16. Sebastine Ikahihifo
17. Jack de Belin
The big talking point is the decision to move Josh Dugan to centre, which has been widely speculated. Certainly Dugan is a powerful ball runner and an extremely talented player in any position, however the average centre touches the ball far fewer times that the average fullback and is, in the modern split-halves system, generally limited to one side of the field. Moreover, the touches a centre does get are more often than not in the cut-and-thrust on the edge of the ruck rather than the free spaces a fullback gets to operate in.
Unless Dugan is significantly better within that limited role than he is at fullback (a position which he has played at Origin level), or unless Mann is significantly better than he demonstrated at the Storm in 2015, it seems an odd choice to put the ball in Dugan’s hands less often and with less room to move.
Additionally, Dugan is not renowned for his passing game or ability to create tries for others. He recorded only a single try assist all season in 2015, with only Josh Hoffman creating fewer tries for teammates among regular fullbacks. Dugan’s game is about running the ball, not passing it.
However Dugan will almost certainly be a great centre because he is a wonderful, natural footballer and he will adjust his game to the role. But a great fullback, which Dugan is despite the lack of a passing game, is much more important than a great centre.
Overall however the Dragons backline is a solid mix of talent and experience, with players like Euan Aitken and Peter Mata’utia looking to build on excellent seasons in 2015, and veterans like Jason Nightingale, Gareth Widdop and Benji Marshall still more than capable at first-grade level.
The forward pack however is less impressive. While Tyson Frizell and Joel Thompson were both very good in 2015 and should continue to shore up the edges, the middle unit of front rowers and locks is concerning.
The team will be relying on players like Leeson Ah Mah, who had a career year in 2015, and Packer, who has just returned from several years out of the game (he did at least play the second half of the NSW Cup season in 2015 which will help) in the starting line-up.
Beyond those two, the team’s depth is troubling. Players like Lui and Ikahihifo are slated to be regular members of the match-day 17 after being fringe first graders thus far in their careers. Meanwhile, Ben Creagh has been in decline for a number of seasons.
Player to watch: Benji Marshall
I’m about to compare Benji Marshall to Shane Warne, but please bear with me. I promise it makes sense and I guarantee there will be no references to Warne’s ‘celebrity’ lifestyle.
In the early part of his career, Warne beat the opposition with brilliant audacity – the monster leg spinner out of the footmarks or the flipper straight up the middle into poor old Daryl Cullinan’s pads. But later in his career Warne lost those balls and relied instead on a craftier game, on subtle variations, and in the end on being intimidating simply by being Shane Warne.
The same is true of Marshall. Gone are the otherworldly flick passes and extravagant steps and dummies that were the hallmark of his game in the early part of his career. In their place are accurate kicks, well-timed runs, and artful, rather than otherworldly, passes. He is a more grounded and ordinary player than the mid-2000s Wests Tigers Benji but he still has the nous to be effective, recording 18 try assists in 2015.
However Father Time remains undefeated and rumours already abound that this season may be Marshall’s last in the NRL. Even if he doesn’t depart, it’s likely his skills will begin to diminish in the near future. I recommend everyone enjoy watching Benji while he is still resembles the wizard of the 2005-era Tigers.
Predicted finish: Miss the eight
Dragons fans will be aghast at this prediction, however the team has achieved very little in recruitment to improve, while the teams immediately outside the eight – like the Eagles, Panthers, Raiders Warriors and Eels – have brought in exciting new players, or have important players returning from injury.
The Dragons’ success in 2015 was built on a level of intensity theY struggled to continue for the full 26 rounds. Perhaps they can start afresh with that intensity in 2016, but they can’T continue it for an entire season.
Adir
Guest
Any of this changed after the Dragons smashed a near to full strength Warriors side?
Devout Saint
Guest
Personally I doubt that we will make the top 8 this year. I think we will be competitive. I think we over achieved last year. I also think that clubs such as Parra, Canberra and Manly have improved their rosters, while Penrith were decimated with injury and will appreciate the addition of Merrin this year. We also have probably the toughest draw this year. I am one who wants Dugan at centre. From the moment we signed him, I said that he was not my style of fullback. The one try assist last year is the clincher. I think Dugan will make a top centre and I have him penciled in as one NSW centre with Fergo NSW other centre. I have Tedesco penciled in as NSW long term fullback. I am not convinced of Mann yet, but I am prepared to give him some time to prove himself. I want to see Mann at fullback. He may add anther dimension to our attack, that we desperately need. I had Lafai penciled in as one of our centres, based on his 2014 form for Canterbury, but he was very ordinary, to say the least in the Charity shield, while Aikten looks to have come on from last year. I would like to see Widdop play halfback and see if he can take on the dominate play maker role, but I expect Mary to keep Marshall at halfback and Widdop 5/8. I am expecting a big year from Jack Debelin. I have him penciled in for the starting lock position. I think he could push for NSW this year. I see him as an origin player. I also expect Frizzel to have a big year and push for origin too. AhMau was good at prop for us last year and I expect him to go just as well this year. Prop is his position. I think Packer is a great aquisition. We have been lacking a big tough prop who in an enforcer for years. I think Packer will be that prop we have been missing. I do not think that Merrin is a major lose as I think DeBelin will cover the lose of Merrin and Packer replaces him in our pack. There are some wraps Milne. I am keen to see him play too. Maybe we could end up with Dugan and Milne as our centres by the end of the season.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Keeping Dugan at fullback will only produce a repeat of last year - near to last in points scored. The Dragons were more dangerous in their own half last year than inside their opponents twenty - This fact is disturbing considering the Dragons forced more re-starts than any other team. Dugan does not have flair or nouse to create opportunities for those around him close to the opponents line. He is a hard runner and is better suited to being placed in a half a gap, than attempting to put someone else through a hole. His try assists last year measured all of two! Kurt Mann is the Mann for the job. He has great hands and displays soft touches on the ball, which is more akin to a Matt Moylan style of player. His short kicking game is what has impressed me the most. Chiming into the backline with either Lafai or Dugan running off him will be a nightmare for a host of defenders. I'd also start Aitken on the wing to further bolster their strike-power. He's also a safer bet in the air than Mata'utai.
Dean - Surry Hills
Guest
Nice work Baz - Did you spend the weekend in the company of Billy Birmingham? You may do well to trot out an entire NRL styled Australiana, as Austen Tayshus is still looking for his next hit.
Julian King
Roar Guru
Lafai has played on the right but he's actually a left centre. I'm not sure Gareth Widdop at 26 with 118 games under his belt qualifies as a "veteran". For all we know a ball playing fullback could revolutionise the red V this season. I wouldn't dismiss them.
3 Hats
Guest
Nice one Barry, now you have to do this for all clubs.
Tom Rock
Expert
Dragons just don't have the points in them to make a serious run at the finals. I find it bizarre that, despite Wayne Bennett having left several seasons ago, and two head coaches have been in place since he dashed off for Tinkler's millions, they still essentially play the same way. The personnel has been completely overhauled, save for Ben Creagh and Jason Nightingale, yet they are still a stingy defensive team that struggles to post enough points.
jamesb
Guest
Put Lafai in the centres and Dugan at fullback. If Dugan plays in the centres, then I think Mary has outfoxed himself. My backline at the start of the season 1. Dugan 2. Nighty 3. Aitken 4. Lafai 5. P.Mata'utai 6. B.Marshall 7. G.Widdop It will be interesting to see how Drew Hutchinson comes along this year. He did play five-eighth in one or two games last year. I'm more optimistic about our chances this year. Sad to see Mose go down. Hopefully we might see him towards the back end of the season. Prediction: 6th. But I'm more then happy if they went higher.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Ha ha-some of your best TB :)
Ken
Guest
I wasn't down on the signing of Lafai, I remember his form from 2014 was hot and hoped to see it again in red and white. I've actually thought of him as a having a lock on one of the centre positions since I heard he was coming, it's only really after watching him go around in the shield that I've had second thoughts. I'm not going to suggest that one trial game should determine his place, but if I had to make a call based on form from last year and pre-season I'd have Aitken in front by a considerable margin. If Dugan's in the other centre spot that means I've actually got Lafai unluckily missing out. I don't know how it will play out.
The Barry
Roar Guru
I don't think I can mate - I have Kurt Mann to thank...
The Barry
Roar Guru
Ken - I'm really dirty the dogs let Lafai go and think you've picked up a good signing. When he came into first grade he was quick and light footed but avoided heavy contact. He's since bulked up and learned that he can make yards by running straight and hard but still has the footwork. He was outstanding in 2014 and I really thought he could be pushing for an origin jersey in 2-3 years. Last year was injury interupted - if he has a good run with injuries there's no reason why he can't excel again. I look forward to seeing your opinion of him in a couple of months in the red and white.
Charles NSW
Guest
I agree with Walter and Ken comments giving a positive view to the Dragons for 2016! Your team Lachlan, is how I had it but putting Silvia Havile instead of Dunamis Lui to utilise two hookers also I had DeBelin as the lock Tim Lafai did not impress and will need to do much more to earn a spot which Aitken has earned Your comments on Mann and Dugan were interesting as to why Dugan should remain fullback However Dugan has proven he can play centre and if Mann utilise his skills especially his passing game it will add to our attack I have no doubt the Dragons will be in the top eight as McGregor knows what is needed and will work on ironing them out McGregor was one of the greats at centre so wanting Dugan there indicates he can see potential to what I am also thinking If it does not work out we have plenty of time to come up with another plan no worries We now have a good attacking coach to help McGregor add more points which we lacked last year
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
So I'm afraid Lafai's omission is down to poor quality control when finalizing the preview. It will be Aitken he competes with id imagine although I'd note he has typically played right centre at the Dogs which is where Dugan will slot in. It's certainly possible I'm underestimating the forward pack but I don't think so. Time will tell
Ken
Guest
OK, you've just set the standard, you'll have to pull one of these out for each preview from here on.
Ken
Guest
I don't think you'll get too much flack, we Dragons supporters are mostly level-headed.... well sometimes. I think you're underestimating the pack considerably though. I'm always baffled by the idea that Creagh has been reduced to a passenger, he has completely transitioned his game from a wide-running backrower to a hard hitting middle player but he's no less valuable. He hits hard in defence and runs up the middle winning the contact more often than not. When he's on the field the Dragons are much more likely to be moving forward than laterally. Also Dunamis Lui doesn't really fit the concept of fringe first grader, he's played 70 games with 38 of those in the last 2 seasons at Manly - that's pretty much a first choice player. He & Ikahihifo will be fighting hard for those bench positions though, Will Matthews had some good game time last year and, as mentioned by Walter, Havili has looked pretty good in the trials. What's your final read on Lafai? You singled him out as the best buy they made but then left him out of the strongest team. Personally I'm not sure on him, No doubt he has some talent though, but he didn't have a great season last year and I'd prefer to see Aitken keep a centre spot.
The Max
Guest
The review is reasonable enough although a bit pessimistic. Assuming players that played well last year won't be able to maintain form and that all fringe players will fail to establish themselves as regular first graders.... The only significant loss from last year was Merrin and if you compare the losses and the gains, the roster looks to have improved. As for Dugan switching to centre, I recall 2014 when there was a big difference in our attack.Having a large hard-to-handle centre had defences scrambling and panicking. Dragons definitely need a more threatening centre like Dugan provided that they can find a reasonable fullback. The review also fails to mention that the losses that came in the latter part of the season were on the back of a huge injury toll.....a couple of close games that could have been won would have had the dragons on the fringe of the top 4 Having better depth was a priority with the Dragons recruitment team. An optimistic review would have mentioned that the forwards have improved their size and added depth, the backs have had a few additions to add depth and competition while the bench looks more versatile and has added first grade experience. The Dragon spine is a good one, second rowers are awesome, Packer and AhMua could be as good as any starting front row pair and the backline is going to be hotly contested by players with youth and potential. It should be an interesting season. If combinations click and injuries are not too frequent, the dragons could improve on last year's effort.
The Barry
Roar Guru
Widdop McGregor can pull the right Rein and Marshall the troops and the dragons Mann up. If they do fans will be Lafai-ing all the way to the bank. Ah Mau, but they could Packer it in and have their season Frizzel out to nothing. Fans will be Aitken and Creagh-Creagh if they do. For Cooper de Belin tolls.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
I obviously agree that they will be uninspiring but will probably grind out a few wins however I just can't see it being enough to make the eight. All the teams around them on the table have improved whilst their roster has at best stayed the same and arguably gotten worse.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Thanks for reading and commenting Walter. I'm expecting a fair bit of flack from Dragons fans today so its nice to get a reasonable response first up. I certainly agree that I could have mentioned Mike Cooper who was excellent in 2015 and I agree Leeson Ah Mah was terrific as well. For Cooper I can see that continuing but for Ah Mah 2015 was far and away his best season. I remain sceptical that he can continue that form. Happy to be proved otherwise though. Perhaps he has just found his niche as a starting prop. Depth is the concern. If you're already slotting in Ikahihifo and Lui then its hard to believe there is genuine quality behind them.