After capturing their first title in millennia in 2014, the Rabbitohs were largely disappointing in 2015. Can the return of one large, handsome Englishman reverse their fortunes in 2016?
2015 in review: Premiership hangover
If you look up ‘premiership hangover’ you’ll find a picture of the 2015 Rabbitohs. Unsurprisingly enough the team (and a lot of fans) reacted to the drought-breaking 2014 premiership by giving 2015 a protracted shrug.
While the team did finish with 13 wins to limp into the finals, they were swiftly eliminated by the Sharks. Throughout 2015 there was always a sense that the team had lost the menace they showed during their title run. However good news on that front because…
Off-season story: Big Sam is back
There is little doubt that when he left rugby league at the end of 2014 for a disappointing stint in the 15-man code that Sam Burgess was the best (non-hooker) forward in the game and the heart and soul of the premiership-winning team.
Burgess led the club in average metres gained (159.6) and tackles made (34.3) while playing the most minutes of any forward on the team (73.9). He also broke 73 tackles (only Jason Taumalolo had more among forwards) and had 58 offloads (second in the competition behind Corey Parker).
In summary: he’s pretty good at rugby league.
But despite these gargantuan direct contributions Burgess’s true value is as a force multiplier for his teammates. When you have a player, and particularly a forward, who can sustain that level of performance over such big minutes you’re also allowing lesser players to play fewer minutes at higher intensity.
Burgess’s work rate was noticeably missed in 2015 as players like Ben Lowe, Jason Clark and David Tyrell were pushed into more minutes and all struggled to deliver the sort of forward dominance the team had enjoyed in 2014.
Burgess’s return will give Michael Maguire considerably more flexibility to use his bench more effectively in addition to being simply amazing himself.
Roster management
2016 gains: Sam Burgess, Damian Cook, Dane Nielsen and Michael Oldfield.
2016 losses: Dylan Walker, Chris McQueen, Issac Luke, Tim Grant and Glenn Stewart.
Burgess is the big acquisition but Damian Cook is also looming as a key contributor. While the club had originally earmarked Cameron McInnes to replace Issac Luke, McInnes did not impress in first grade last season and Cook looked the more impressive player in Saturday’s Charity Shield.
Meanwhile, Dane Nielsen and Michael Oldfield have also been added to the squad to add depth to an outside back corps that is probably, Greg Inglis aside, the weakest element of the team.
On the other side of the recruitment and retention ledger, the club has offloaded three players – Glenn Stewart, Tim Grant and Chris McQueen who were disappointing in 2015.
The deal to bring in Stewart always smacked of a desperation move to acquire a big-name player without much regard to the evidence of Stewart’s declining production and increasing injuries. For his part McQueen struggled with additional minutes and responsibility in 2015 and will look to restart his career on the Gold Coast.
Losing Luke is a blow. However, while on the field he is irreplaceable – though Cook has shown the pace and running instinct to perhaps be a poor man’s version of Luke – there were persistent rumours that he and Maguire did not get along and player-coach feuds generally end badly (for reference see: Farah, Robbie).
Dylan Walker is an interesting case. After an outstanding 2014 in which he recorded 12 tries but also 12 try assists, 15 line breaks and 12 line-break assists to go with 106.5 metres per game on nearly 14 carries, his stats, and particularly his playmaking, cratered in 2015 with only four try assists and four line-break assists.
Likely line-up
1. Greg Inglis
2. Alex Johnston
3. Bryson Goodwin
4. Kirsome Au’ava
5. Aaron Gray
6. Luke Keary
7. Adam Reynolds
8. George Burgess
9. Damian Cook
10. David Tyrell
11. Kyle Turner
12. John Sutton
13. Sam Burgess
14. Tom Burgess
15. Paul Carter
16. Chris Grevsmuhl
17. Jason Clark
In the backline I have opted for the default five players from last season but acknowledge that either Oldfield or Nielsen could easily snag a spot. While Inglis is Inglis and Johnston has shown plenty of potential none of the other three backs are untouchable.
Despite the recent acrimony at a pre-season function between Luke Keary and the old man owner with the raspy voice it seems likely that Keary will at the very least begin the season alongside Adam Reynolds in the halves. However the sheer volume of coverage about the 26-year-old ‘up and comer’ Cody Walker suggests some at the club would like to see Keary moved aside.
With Big Sam’s return the forward pack looks far more balanced than 2015. In this line-up I have placed Tom Burgess on the bench in the expectation that he would substitute in and out for his brothers at various stages to ensure there is always two of them on the field. However, I can also easily envisage a scenario where they start all three brothers and try to overwhelm the opposition.
Similarly, in the back row I can easily imagine Chris Grevsmuhl – who was excellent in 2015 – starting on the left edge with former captain John Sutton to be introduced off the bench as a wild card.
Paul Carter, who joined mid-way through last season, is a solid acquisition and will be even better when he can hold onto the ball, something he struggled with during the Charity Shield.
Overall this is a stronger pack than 2015 but still not quite as strong as the premiership-winning team which had McQueen during his apex (or not his apex, hope Titans fans) and Ben Te’o who brought raw aggression that players like Kyle Turner cannot replicate.
Depth remains a concern as money squandered on players like Grant and Stewart in 2015 now leaves the cupboard bare and should any of the Burgess brothers miss significant time the club will struggle to find adequate replacements.
Player to watch: Greg Inglis
Inglis is among the most frustrating players to watch in the game. When at his best he makes the game look effortless but there are just as many occasions when he seems disengaged. Souths fans, while no doubt appreciative of the good days, must surely wish they could find a magic switch to activate GOANNA mode every game.
However he is still the most physically gifted fullback in the game with an unparalleled combination of imposing size and truly remarkable skill. And he is still barely 29 years old. Which is why Inglis will be fascinating to watch this year.
Despite being contracted to South Sydney for 2016 and 2017 there is already abundant reckless speculation and innuendo that he is likely to move to the Broncos in 2018.
Inglis has already been asked about these rumours and unsurprisingly denied them but if the team starts badly you can expect them to continue all season long.
Predicted finish: Make the eight
Recognising that this entire preview already reads like Sam Burgess fan fiction I’m still prepared to say that without Burgess’s return I had pencilled the Rabbitohs in for a fringe of the eight finish.
However with Burgess back in the fold I’m happy to improve that rating to the Rabbitohs making the eight. Burgess revolutionises (or more accurately re-revolutionises) the entire forward pack and there is still ample quality in the halves and backline to capitalise on the sort of forward dominance that a three-Burgi pack can be expected to deliver.
3 Hats
Guest
WOW, parrafan, you settle down mate, You've obviously been smoking something if you think that a Premiership halfback and the Next Cab off the Rank for the State of Origin. Adam Reynolds is not as good as Sezer! Seriously mate you have lost ALL credibility with that one! Reynolds was injured most of 2015, NOT his best year but 2016, bring it ON! There is NOTHING wrong with Johnstons defense mate, I have hardly seen him miss one single tackle. Hymel Hunt, while a youngster handled the Dragons and Titans with ease. Well mate I know one thing is for sure the Rabbitohs will finish in front of your Eels. Your forwards are pathetic and you blokes will get trampled on. AND while Semi trailer is a fine player, You can expect him to be lucky to score 10 trys this year with that Ball Hog inside him, Jennings. I will be laughing at you when you get smashed in Round 1.
Glenn
Guest
Unfortunately Au’ava is now well known for all the wrong reasons. Sam Burgess is the best forward in the NRL, particularly in 2014, and along with his two brothers carried Souths that year. Whether Sam is still the best forward after playing, what, centre for rahs rahs, (only they could use the world's best forward and put him in the backs. What! SBW also plays centre in rahs rahs. WTF) remains to be seen but we can only hope. And this coming from a non Souths fan.
Parrafan
Guest
Settle down 3 hats. This is an opinion site and just because Lachlan's opinion isn't the same as yours doesn't make it any less valid. I'd argue Sezer is a better half than A Reynolds. Johnston is a liability in defence as is Hymel Hunt and Sam Burgess will be required to carry the team on his shoulders for much of 2016. Given they limped in to the eight last year and have lost some quality players in the off season I hope you have some white out for that inked bold letters.
3 Hats
Guest
Well, Lachlan Bickley you obviously know little about the Rabbitohs if you did then you would have Hymel Hunt under the new signings category and I will give you the tip Hunt is the next cab off the Rank for a Centre Position NOT Oldfield or Neilson. Have you seen any Souths Trials? In the Losses column, you missed Ben Lowe, who retired due to persistent shoulder injuries. It seems to you that it is "the Burgess and Inglis" ONLY SHOW? NO mention of Reynolds the best NSW half in the Comp. No mention of Johnston an Australian International, and tryscoring speedster. Your last point "penciled in to make the eight" WOW, I have them in BOLD letters and in INK, to make the eight.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Bulldogs pack lacks workers? I think Aidan Tolman, James Graham and Josh Jackson would disagree with that. I really like the Rabbitohs pack but they're still carrying guys like Tyrell and Clark which leaves them at a disadvantage to those other three teams for me.
Rod
Guest
the Bulldogs have a big pack, that lacks workers and has tony Williams in it. The roosters pack I won't, l argue but they could not do it in 14( Souths pulverised them in the QF, and they don't have SBW anymore, but still very good. Cowboys pack is good without being great. I can still see James Tamou and the big kiwi forward getting steamrolled by the burgess boys last year , now they have added Sam, plus some new blood . I reckon the bunnies pack can hold its own against all comers.
steveng
Roar Rookie
For a start 'No Luke, Walker, McQueen from 2015' Luke was hopeless last year, he was a liability not an asset, he was continually suspended, dropped the ball and did some of the stupidest things a footballer of his class and calibre should do, but the biggest problem with Luke was his suspensions at crucial times when Souths really needed him for the playoffs! Walker had a good to a mediocre season but was really irrelevant in the centres towards the end of the season (yes he is a big loss), McQueen wasn't top notch either and he played his season in patches but mostly he had a very ordinary season. So in saying all this, Souths didn't lose much in as far as top notch talent from 2015 and 2016 looks a much brighter and better season seeing all the youngsters that are ripe and ready to take on the NRL Telstra Premiership all they need is for Maguire to give them a go in 2016! .
steveng
Roar Rookie
The Rabbits will be in the top 3 this year, forget about all the gossip and talk of Reynolds and Keary wanting to out or any other thing that is happening at Souths. This year we have added allot of great talent and the team has learned allot from last years poor effort. With the return of Sam Burgess.and hopefully the inclusion of Cody Walker sometime at 5/8 in the top side and Damien Cook at dummy half things will improve as they can't get any worst than 2015. I have every hope and faith in the Rabbits of 2016 but then again ask me what I think in 'Round 14' and things might be different!...lol...Go the Rabbits!!!!
The eye
Guest
It's easy to forget that last season was Gurgess' only 2nd full season in the NRL and although he played every game except for those 2 weeks he was sat down for chucking the water bottle,only he knows how many of them he played burdened with that hip injury.. Back alongside Sam and Tom..expect a huge season from him.. Damian Cook looks a superb buy..cant recall any jaw dropping contributions from Luke,Mcqueen or Walker last year so not as if they'll be missed.. Cowboys showed you dont need outstanding three quarters to win the comp..just a true game winning marquee in the spine (GI),a smarter than average hooker and a line bending pack..Souths have got that..as awful as they played last year,was still good enough to get them into the 8,so,you know...
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
Rabbitohs pack, with Sam back, is very good but not in the same league as the Bulldogs, Roosters and Cowboys. Probably in the next tier down with teams like the Broncos
Rod
Guest
I'm pretty confident souths will make the eight. Even last year they showed when the forward pack was on, it was hard to stop , think back to the Cowboys game. With Sam back, Turner has some good fortune and some new blood, a lot really good signs in the charity shield. I'm keen to see if Chrichton steps up this year! I rate our pack at full strength the best in the comp we have good halves, a great player in GI a try scorer in AJ. The rest of the backs are solid and have size . It's a strong side
pete bloor
Guest
Remember that Brisbane game where I think it was Hoffman just kept getting lit up like a Christmas tree every time he hit a gap, which unfortunately for him was about every second set of six.
Lachlan Bickley
Roar Guru
If you go through each of my previews you'll notice I haven't talked a great deal about young guys for the simple reason that every single team has "an exciting crop of youngsters coming through". Every fan base can point to three or four can't miss prospects in NSW Cup or NYC and for the most part guys don't deliver on the promise. Perhaps the Rabbitohs will convert all of those guys into regular first graders. Being a winning team helps and so having Burgess back might make a difference to how guys progress and certainly helped develop players like Chris McQueen. But every team can point to just as many "top line prospects" so I've tended to ignore that for the most part in these previews
Worlds Biggest
Guest
Agree with Reynolds being a key factor, he will need his forwards to deliver. I am really interested to see how Cody Walker plays in Rd 1. He was very good in the Charity Shield and totally dominated at State Cup level last year.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Roar Rookie
Ha ha TB-just googled sloth from the goonies....spitting image:)
The Barry
Roar Guru
I know Dean Young soiled himself. I agree with your points on Inglis. Hayne has suffered from the same thing. Because they're capable of 90 metre tries and beating five defenders at a time, if they don't they're quiet or inconsistent.
Tom Rock
Expert
Too much class and size for this team not to make the finals in 2016. I think their year will hinge on whether Adam Reynolds finally pushing his game up a notch after flirting with form and consistency over the last few years. If he can provide the Bunnies with a sharp kicking game and stay injury free, they have a shot at top 4. Would love to see him make the leap and give Origin a crack this year.
Brendan
Guest
Are you guys delusional? Inglis is one of the best players in the comp. The things you dont notice, but other coaches and commentators do is his presence on the field. How many tries has the Souths left side attack scored in recent years from opposition defences double teaming or rushing up on GI, he then just shifts it out to the winger for an easy try. His ball playing is underestimated, as is his last line of defence. Many players have hit a gap and crapped themselves when running towards GI. Does the same thing happen when they run towards say a Moylan or a Zillman? i think not
ferret
Guest
Spot on Nambawan. Despite a pretty exciting backline and two good halves the Bunnies played a very forward-dominated game last year. The big question is what is Maguire's "Plan B" if the power game isn't working? Re-watching the finals over the summer break it emphasised how much more open footy the teams were playing (even in finals which are generally much more conservative in style). Souths seemed to have not read the script.
The Barry
Roar Guru
The year before it was getting smashed by James Graham. His entire highlight reel consists of him getting belted 47 times and one try from three metres out.