Three-year-old stars set to dominate autumn

I’ve always thought the measure of a good three-year-old is how well they can perform against the older horses. And if that is the case we could be looking at a vintage crop of youngsters this year.

Godolphin three-year-old Holler started the ball rolling by winning the weight-for-age Australia Stakes roughly a month ago, and he isn’t even the best of his generation.

The Hawkes-trained Headwater then won the listed Kensington Stakes race down the Flemington straight a week later at a generous early price, perhaps not beating a great field of older horses but still getting the job done in convincing fashion.

Last week was truly a red letter day for the younger contingent, though, not only here, but also across the Tasman in New Zealand.

I’m still quite shocked that the three-year-old filly Valley Girl was able to comfortably beat two of New Zealand’s current star (older) gallopers at Te Rapa. It was her first attempt at a middle distance against experienced rivals who were very fit.

Both Kawi and Stolen Dance were left in her wake and there seemed to be no fluke about the win, given the time run. It suggested that no excuse could be given to any of the beaten brigade in a truly run race.

Later at that race meeting star colt Xtravagant stepped out in the 1400m Group 1 sprint, and the state of the track, and a last start failure against his own age group, had punters a little doubtful of his credentials.

They needn’t have worried though as it turned out, for he absolutely toyed with his top class older rivals winning by a widening eight lengths. Though he was the only horse to save ground sticking to the rails in the straight.

It’s doubtful there has ever been a more dominant performance by a three-year-old against older rivals, and there is no doubt he is the best three-year-old sprinter New Zealand has produced in many years.

Xtravagant’s ability to relax so well on the pace is quite unusual to watch. His head goes down almost like he is going to fall asleep, but when the accelerator is pressed he really kicks into overdrive, as he did here, decimating his rivals with a blistering turn of foot which he sustained from the top of the straight to the finishing post.

Almost as impressive as Xtravagant was the win of three-year-old filly Heatherly in the Group 2 Rubiton Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield. She was up a mile in class, and was barely mentioned in the top echelon of two-year-olds in the spring, yet she had this race in her keeping almost after the gates opened.

Heatherly literally jogged through the first half of that race, keeping a decent margin between her and any of her opposition. It was virtually a procession from that point as she strolled away to record a 5.5 length win.

Have we ever seen a three-year-old filly do that to older rivals in a race? I can’t think of one in recent years. Maybe we have to go back to Surround in the 1970s, but I’m not sure she could have done that to her opposition at 1100 metre. Heatherly is probably going to best at that distance or 1200 metres, but at this stage she has the Oakleigh Plate next week seemingly at her mercy.

So, onto the Lightning Stakes this Saturday down the straight at Flemington, and we have three very capable three-year-olds – Exosphere, Japonisme and Kinglike – taking on the star older gallopers – Chautauqua, Delectation and Terravista.

This has been a poor race over past ten years for the younger horses, with 20 or more having failed since their last victory in 2005. Keep in mind though that Black Caviar did win three of the last ten editions, and she was the closest thing to being unbeatable down the straight.

This looks a good opportunity to end the drought, though it could be argued all three might be even better suited if they progress to the Newmarket handicap in three weeks’ time.

The Chris Waller-trained Brazen Beau couldn’t quite match it with Lankan Rupee in this race last year, but he was gallant taking the runner-up spot before revenge was sweet in the Newmarket. No offence to it but Exosphere is almost certainly a superior horse at the same time, and Japonisme is probably a better prospect than Brazen Beau at 1000 metres.

Kinglike looks a very nice rough odds chance in the race too, as he may possibly have improved a lot since the spring, and he has already won down the straight. Any of the three could win without surprising.

In the short term, this autumn, other races the three-year-olds might target against their older counterparts will be the aforementioned Newmarket, and possibly the Australian Cup (Tarzino, Perfect Reflection, Xtravagant).

Long term, up in Sydney (The Championships), the weight-for-age Ryder Stakes and Queen Elizabeth loom as possible targets, and the Doncaster Mile will almost certainly contain a few quality youngsters. It nearly always does, and Kermadec bolted the race in as a three-year-old last year.

It could be a stellar season for the fillies and colts this season, but they definitely won’t get things all their own way with the likes of Winx and Chautauqua (just to mention a couple) in opposition. Some Japanese raiders in Sydney will also make life difficult for all of the locals in late March and April.

Lightning Stakes thoughts

1. Kinglike
I think he might be the value horse off a recent trial win where he led. Not a lot of pace in this race and I’d like to see him leading or sitting outside the likely pacemarker Va Pensiero. He could pinch a handy break and be difficult to run down, but he is yet to really prove himself against top quality opposition.

2. Japonisme
He too could sit close enough to the lead but he generally settles in behind the leaders. Has Chris Waller got him fully wound up for a first-up tilt? If so I think he can win.

3. Chautauqua
Goes like a bomb fresh and if the leaders don’t get enough of a break on him he will almost certainly outsprint them with his dynamic finishing burst.

4. Exosphere
Class colt who will probably exert his superiority if right. But his Coolmore Stakes run was poor down the straight, and he just doesn’t represent any value at his current quote.

Bet suggestion
Kinglike and Japonisme straight out at quotes of $26 and $10 respectively.