Collingwood are coming, everyone look busy

Is it inconceivable that Collingwood’s Scott Pendlebury ends the 2016 season as his team’s second or third best midfielder?

The champion Pie is long odds for the Brownlow medal, despite his excellence. That’s as much a product of who is now around him: the best emerging midfield group in the competition.

You could call me a closet Collingwood sympathiser. After their second straight end-of-season collapse, I wrote a very glass-half-full take on where the club was at in August.

It was an unfashionable view at the time. The fans were baying for the coach’s blood, questioning the list management strategy, and calling the players mentally weak. The more level-headed takes were that the Pies just didn’t have ‘it’.

How quickly things can change, hey? The Pies are now a fashionable choice as a final eight leaper; the candidate most likely to emerge from the middle-class quagmire. Nathan Buckley is still on the chopping block for many, which vastly underrates his tenure since taking over the reins from Michael Malthouse in 2012.

In the past two seasons, the Pies have had an 8-3 record at the halfway point of the year, only to reverse the ledger in the second half to miss finals. In both years, the first half has been greeted with surprise, and the second with disappointment. On a number of indicators, the Pies could be expected to perform better than they have in recent times simply by virtue of better luck.

But there’s something more than luck – there always is. It’s easy to give the glib answer that this is Collingwood. And to be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s what a lot of the newfound optimism is based on across the spectrum. That isn’t satisfying in the slightest.

There are two issues at play, both related to Collingwood’s list. These feed into a third reason, which should give us all pause for thought.

Collingwood have almost completely revamped their list in the space of four years, without ever using the dreaded ‘R’ word in public. Just 12 of Collingwood’s 2011 fully listed players remain in the black and white, with 29 net changes in their squad. They’ve done this, as I say, without using the term rebuild. It’s a near tear-down of what was a talented and still young squad, conducted mostly in the shadows.

Funnily enough, Collingwood will enter this season with remarkably similar demographics to their 2011 list. The average games played of the fully listed Collingwood team in 2011 was 71.7; in 2016 it is 69.5. It’s a similar story on the age front: 24 years old in 2011 versus 24.5.

In both cases, the Pies were ranked right around the middle of the competition – although their talent, and the coaching scheme of Malthouse, saw the 2011 team through to its second straight grand final.

That’s remarkable. Their fellow 2011 top-four finishers (Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast) have pursued different paths. The Cats were the oldest and most experienced list in the competition, and have retained 15 of the players that were on their list in 2011. If we did this exercise in 2015, that figure was 19. Hawthorn, who were just moving into prime age, still have 16 of their 2011 list active. West Coast, who were the youngest of the four, and arguably a long way ahead of schedule, retained 16 of its players.

And this leads to Collingwood’s second and more important feature heading into 2016: the sheer depth of blue-chip talent they have assembled to run through the middle of the ground. It’s almost expansion-esque, with this group of sub-24-year-olds rivalling both the Giants and Suns when it comes to pedigree and potential.

Collingwood have a dozen top-20 picks on their list, and that doesn’t include a couple of players acquired in the expansion side prelisting period. Many of these are the Pies elite veterans, but what is astounding is the extent to which Collingwood have bought these highly rated players to the club in recent years.

Adam Treloar
Brodie Grundy
Darcy Moore
James Aish
Jamie Elliott
Jordan De Goey
Matthew Scharenberg
Taylor Adams
Tim Broomhead

Just five of those players are Collingwood draftees, the rest joined through various trades the Pies orchestrated in recent years.

Football is so enamoured of Geelong’s ability to wheel and deal their way into contention that they’ve missed the clinical precision with which Collingwood have gone about stacking their list.

This group of players are all aged 20 to 23, and so are still a years away for the most part from being considered prime age players. They’re the core in waiting.

These signings complement more mature additions like Jeremy Howe, Levi Greenwood, Travis Varcoe and Jesse White, who all fit the 27-30 age bracket that the Pies would have struggled to fill out given the departures required to facilitate Collingwood’s young talent injection. Howe, Varcoe and White can all expect serious game time in 2016 as they help the emerging book end talent of the Pies develop.

Greenwood has struggled to break into the side on a consistent basis since joining the Pies as part of a necessary move at North Melbourne, and when you consider how stacked Collingwood’s midfield now looks following the arrival of Treloar and Aish, that struggle will only grow.

Speaking of, how does Collingwood’s starting midfield look this year? By the time the whips are cracking in July and August, it could look a little something like this.

Steele Sidebottom, Scot Pendlebury, Adam Treloar
Brodie Grundie, Taylor Adams, Jordan De Goey

Sidebottom, who doesn’t get the plaudits he deserves outside of Collingwood, may find his starting midfield spot under pressure by Aish by this point, but given the relative youth elsewhere I’d consider it more likely Aish plays off of the bench or on a wing. That lineup should strike fear into the hearts of most non-Collingwood supporters, who will be terrorised for the next decade.

The starting six is so strong that Brownlow medallist, and ACME Corporation-strength ball magnet Dane Swan has been relegated to a permanent spot at half forward. Jamie Elliott could also end up spending a lot of time through the middle of the ground, particularly if the new 90 interchange cap bites as hard as expected.

Is it the best emerging midfield in the competition? The other candidate is Greater Western Sydney, who would have this crown sewn up if Treloar hadn’t defected to Victoria. Gold Coast is up there too, as are the Western Bulldogs, but if I were a betting man, all my chips would be on this group as being the best in five years’ time.

Treloar’s move to Collingwood is what makes this group look so strong. He has already become one of the game’s better midfielders, with a rare all-around game reserved for the absolute elite. He bursts packs like Pat Dangerfield, kicks like Brent Harvey, and runs like former teammate Dylan Shiel. His size – standing at 182 centimetres – could be a limiting factor, but with a smaller stature comes more nimbleness on the ground.

He’s the guy I have in mind when posing the question of whether Pendlebury will be the best midfielder at Collingwood at the end of this season. Pendlebury is a top-five player in the competition, a status earned through multiple years of outstanding play. Treloar is 22 games away from breaking into that elite class, and he’s 50 or so from being considered a top-ten player.

I personally have him just outside of my top 50 players coming into the season, but would have no qualms if he made it in. He’ll certainly be there for me next season, after he hits the 100-game mark.

Press pause, if only briefly
They do require more growth as a collective, though. And this is where the rising Pies narrative falls over a little. Their relative inexperience, particularly as a group, is one thing, but the more pertinent issue is how the group – and the whole Collingwood midfield really – can improve upon their two-notches-above-awful ability to cleanly move the ball around the ground.

Champion Data rated Collingwood’s ability to kick as 12th-best in the league last season, a figure confirmed by other sources which suggest the Pies effective disposal percentage is near the bottom of the table. Collingwood’s poor disposal manifested in a real inability to transition the ball from their back half; often the Pies’ defence would do all the hard work, only for it to be undone with poor disposal further up the ground. They were ranked dead last in both points from kick-ins and points from defensive 50, according to Champion Data.

This is also reflected in the way Collingwood played last season. They had the third lowest uncontested possession percentage in the game, and had just two games with substantial positive outside differential – against renowned outside defenders Carlton and Gold Coast. Some of this is scheme, with Buckley building on the Malthouse press with his own tactical tweaks, but the best sides in the competition are increasingly those that use the ball well.

There’s nothing wrong with this per se; ten wins suggests something may need to change. However, it’s unclear whether Collingwood’s youngsters are additive in this respect. Adams and Aish are not elite kicks, and while Treloar may be good at everything, he’ll cop a lot of attention week in, week out. De Goey could be the key here, given he’s just coming into his second year and remains the high pick that’s most like an unmoulded lump of clay.

The talent is there. The question is whether it can be taught to use the ball more effectively.

The other key question for Collingwood is how their multitude of talls fit together. Leaving Travis Cloke and Nathan Brown to one side – we know where they’ll be playing – the Pies have a number of options in the big-man department.

The acquisition of Howe, who played both forward and defence in his time at Melbourne, has been the catalyst for this flexibility. That should free up Ben Reid (remember him?) to play more time forward, a role he has pinch hit in to great success in the past. However, Collingwood’s depth at key defender is non-existent, so Reid will be required to play down back when match ups dictate. Tyson Goldsack is another tall player who can play up forward and down back, although defence has been his game in recent years.

This leaves Jesse White stuck in a difficult spot, or perhaps more appropriately, without a spot. White is another Pie not particularly gifted by foot, with his speed-for-size and marking ability his key attributes. That could suit use as a high half forward, providing a strong link up option down the wings or through the middle of the ground.

The story of Collingwood in recent years has been one of surprise, and then disappointment. In many ways, we shouldn’t be surprised if the Pies get off to another fast start in the wins column; we shouldn’t be disappointed if they fall away again. They remain a building side, if not one that is chock full of promise.

So enjoy this intermittent period while you can, because Collingwood are coming. We may just get a glimpse of what they’re capable of this season.