Everybody has a view on how the ladder is going to look after the 2016 home-and-away season.
This is how one of the bookmakers currently sees it.
Bookmakers’ 2016 table
1. Broncos
2. Cowboys
3. Sea Eagles
4. Warriors
5. Roosters
6. Storm
7. Rabbitohs
8. Sharks
9. Bulldogs
10. Panthers
11. Eels
12. Raiders
13. Dragons
14. Knights
15. Tigers
16. Titans
As we know from my analysis last year, on average three sides that made the finals in the previous season won’t make it the following season. The above betting market shows the Dragons and Bulldogs dropping out and being replaced by the Warriors and Sea Eagles.
This seems to make sense on the surface of it, but let’s actually do a statistical analysis to see what the numbers say the ladder will look like at the end of the home-and-away season.
There is one primary factor that we will base our predictions on – each club’s average finish since 1997.
Then there are a further four factors that will cause adjustments to that ranking.
1. The roster – who have they gained, who have they lost, how will it affect the side?
2. The coach – Is he a guru, a rising star, a solid performer, an unknown quantity or right up against it?
3. Club stability – is the head office a tight and harmonious ship and the players united or is there subterfuge and in fighting aplenty?
4. Recent results – has the club played finals in recent season or have lots of players who have?
Average club finish
After every clubs individual results over the life of the NRL are averaged the table looks like this.
1. Broncos (16/18 top eight – 7 times top four)
2. Roosters (12/18 top eight – 9 times top four)
3. Storm (14/18 top eight – 9 times top four)
4. Sea Eagles (10/18 top eight – including Northern Eagles – 6 times top four)
5. Bulldogs (12/18 top eight – 6 times top four)
6. Dragons (11/17 top eight – only from merger – 3 times top four)
7. Knights (9/18 top eight – 4 times top four, but not since 06)
8. Eels (9/18 top eight – 3 times top four, but not since 05)
9. Sharks (9/18 top eight, 3 times top four, but not since 08)
10. Raiders (9/18 top eight, two times top four, but not since 03)
11. Warriors (7/18 top eight, two times top four, but not since 07)
12. Cowboys (8/18 top eight, two times top four)
13. Panthers (5/18 top eight, four times top four)
14. Rabbitohs (6/16 top eight, three times top four)
15. Wests Tigers (3/16 top eight, 3 times top four)
16. Titans (2/9 top eight, two times top four)
That top five would be a surprise to no one. The top five sides on that list have won 11 of the NRL’s 17 grand finals. Nor would the bottom eight surprise anyone. They have won 13 of the NRL’s wooden spoons.
One could argue that pointed to a bit of inequity in the competition. However, only three sides – the Raiders, Titans and Sharks – haven’t made a grand final.
Let’s now look at the variables club by club.
Broncos
1. The roster: +/- 0
Ins: James Roberts (Gold Coast Titans)
Outs: Justin Hodges (retirement), Dale Copley (Roosters), Ashley Taylor (Gold Coast Titans), Jayden Nikorima (Roosters), David Stagg (retirement), Daniel Vidot (Salford)
The big in is the incredibly talented and fast James Roberts. However, they’ve lost Hodges, Ash Taylor, Jayden Nikorima and Dale Copley to balance that out.
2. The coach +2
Wayne Bennett is the best there is. If anyone can get James Roberts performing at his best it is Uncle Wayne.
3. Club stability +1
Red Hill is a well-oiled machine. While there have been some issues with reporting, so far ASIC has not made any moves.
4. Recent good results +2
Making the grand final last year after an eighth place the previous season was a superb effort. That they did it with Josh McGuire injured is even more impressive. I can not see them missing the top four without a major injury crisis.
Total = +4
Only disaster can stop a top-four finish.
Roosters
1. The roster: -2
Ins: Dale Copley (Broncos), Jayden Nikorima (Broncos)
Outs: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (New Zealand Warriors), James Maloney (Cronulla Sharks), Michael Jennings (Parramatta Eels)
I just can’t see the Roosters recruitment as anything but a big loss. While they certainly have some red hot junior halves coming up, the loss of Jennings, Maloney and Tuivasa-Sheck is massive. With Cordner now injured and Mitchell Pearce’s issues there is great disruption at Bondi.
2. The coach +1
Trent Robinson is a proven coach. If anyone can bond the Roosters together as a unit, it is him.
3. Club stability +1
Nick Politis runs a tight ship. The players can upset the apple cart on occasions though.
4. Recent good results +2
The Roosters have been a benchmark for the last three seasons.
Total = +2
There is a lot of pressure on the kids, who – albeit talented – are inexperienced. Probably top 8, but it could go pear shaped for the Bondi boys.
Storm
1. The roster: -1
Ins: Matthew White (Gold Coast Titans), Mark Nicholls (Canberra Raiders)
Outs: Kurt Mann (St George Illawarra Dragons), Ryan Hinchcliffe (Huddersfield Giants), Mahe Fonua (Hull FC), Matt Duffie (rugby union)
Hinchcliffe and Kurt Mann departures will hurt but the spine of Slater, Cronk and Smith – if it stays fit – is still the benchmark. Will it stay fit?
2. The coach +2
Just after Uncle Wayne is Craig Bellamy. The master of crafting a silk purse from a sow’s ear.
3. Club stability +1
All is good and harmonious.
4. Recent good results +1
The Storm haven’t missed the finals for five years, and they’ve finished top four in four of those.
Total = +3
Will the spine stay fit? If they do – and Bellamy can get recruits White and Nicholls hitting their stride – they could well take it to their more fancied and flashy opponents.
Sea Eagles
1. The roster: +1
Ins: Dylan Walker (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Nate Myles (Gold Coast Titans), Martin Taupau (Wests Tigers), Lewis Brown (Penrith Panthers), Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers), Tim Moltzen (Wests Tigers)
Outs: Kieran Foran (Parramatta Eels), Matt Ballin (Wests Tigers), Jack Littlejohn (Wests Tigers), Clinton Gutherson (Parramatta Eels), Peta Hiku (Penrith Panthers)
Some massive outs there in Foran and Ballin. The leadership those two bought to the side cannot be underestimated. Add to that wunderkind Gutherson going. However, they’ve picked up some superb players. Nate Myles experience and leadership is superb. Dylan Walker has skill to burn, as does Moltzen. And I love Lewis Brown.
2. The coach -1
Trent Barrett is untested at NRL level as head coach. He is replacing a beloved son of Brookvale. He is doing it with an ageing squad. He could be right up against it.
3. Club stability -2
Lots of infighting. Between board and players. Between board members. If the results aren’t going well Brookvale will not be a happy place.
4. Recent good results -1
In spite of their run home with a wet sail they still missed the finals for the first time since 2004. Is it the end of an era?
Total = -3
Can Barrett mould this mob into a formidable fighting unit in the face of such issues? Maybe, but he can’t afford much to go wrong and seven of his first 17 are over 30 years old. I reckon they’ll miss again.
Bulldogs
1. The roster: -1
Ins: Will Hopoate (Parramatta Eels)
Outs: Trent Hodkinson (Newcastle Knights), Frank Pritchard (Hull FC), Damien Cook (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Tim Lafai (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Losing Hodkinson is a big one, as is Damien Cook. They are really banking on Moses Mbye and Josh Reynolds doing very well. They may. I rate them both. The pack will be as good as ever.
2. The coach +1
I know lot of people don’t like Des, but I do. He even smiled at me during an interview last year. Plus I rate him as a coach. If anyone can make this roster work it is him. He is in charge and the buck stops with him.
3. Club stability +1
I reckon the Dogs may be unruly on and off the field on occasions, but I think they are also a united bunch.
4. Recent good results +1
The Dogs haven’t missed the finals since 2011. I don’t think they’ll miss in 2016 either.
Total = +2
A few big outs but discount the Dogs at your peril.
Dragons
1. The roster: -1
Ins: Kurt Mann (Melbourne Storm), Kalifa Faifai Loa (Gold Coast Titans), Tim Lafai (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs)
Outs: Trent Merrin (Penrith Panthers), Eto Nabuli (rugby union)
Kurt Mann and Tim Lafai are potentially very good recruits. However, the loss of Trent Merrin is massive. At best their roster has not improved and may have gone backwards.
2. The coach +/- 0
Paul McGregor did get his side to the finals last season but it was touch and go. They won as many as they lost. While their pack can be very good indeed there are still real questions over whether the backline can score the required points.
3. Club stability +/- 0
It’s been at least 12 months since the fans called for Peter Doust’s resignation.
4. Recent good results +/- 0
Last season was the first since 2011 that the Dragons had made the finals
Total = -1
Letting Trent Merrin go is not something I’d do unless I absolutely had to. The Dragons rushing defence is a joy to watch but, as ever, do the Dragons have enough points in them to truly challenge. I don’t think so.
Knights
1. The roster: -2
Ins: Trent Hodkinson (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Pauli Pauli (Parramatta Eels)
Outs: Joe Tapine (Raiders), Kurt Gidley (Warrington Wolves), Beau Scott (Parramatta Eels), Clint Newton (retirement), David Fa’alogo (retirement), Tyrone Roberts (Gold Coast Titans), Adam Clydsdale (Canberra Raiders), Chris Houston (Widnes Vikings)
While picking up Trent Hodkinson is great, there are lots of big outs there. Beau Scott and Clint Newton were the soul of the defence and Chris Houston’s work in the middle was dependable. That Joe Tapine has now left for the Raiders is also not ideal.
2. The coach +1
Nathan Brown had six seasons in charge of the Dragons but could never get them across the line for the title. He was punted for Wayne Bennett. He then went to England where he raised his coaching win rate from 50 per cent to 63 per cent with the Huddersfield Giants and then St Helens, who he coached to the Super League title in 2014. Will it translate to success at the Knights though?
3. Club stability -2
The Knights have been through a hell of a time. They’d be dreaming of stability but it will take some work yet.
4. Recent good results -2
Wooden spoon last year and 12th in 2014. Not good at all.
Total = -5
The only way is up.
Eels
1. The roster: +2
Ins: Kieran Foran (Manly Sea Eagles), Michael Jennings (Sydney Roosters), Beau Scott (Newcastle Knights), Michael Gordon (Cronulla Sharks), James Hasson (Manly Sea Eagles), Clinton Gutherson (Manly Sea Eagles),
Outs: Darcy Lussick (Manly Sea Eagles), Chris Sandow (Warrington Wolves), Beau Champion (retirement), Richie Fa’aoso (retirement), Reece Robinson (rugby union), Joseph Paulo (Cronulla Sharks), Will Hopoate (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Pauli Pauli (Newcastle Knights)
One of the biggest challenges for the Eels players this season is learning each other’s names, such has been the turnover. Having said that, the recruiting has been potentially top class, while none of the departures hurt that much. While Foran, Jennings, Scott and Gordon will get the most press, a fit Clinton Gutherson is a superstar in waiting.
2. The coach +/- 0
While the presence of Brad Arthur no doubt helped attract Watmough, Gutherson and Foran from Manly, he is under real pressure to get results this year and will be well aware of Daniel Anderson breathing down his neck.
3. Club stability -2
It’s the Parramatta Eels. They’ve made club dysfunction into a saga more compelling that Breaking Bad.
4. Recent good results -2
The Eels last foray into the finals was in 2009. It has been all pain since then.
Total = -2
A lot rests upon the leadership and generalship of Kieran Foran, a burden he is more than up for. They have a lot to overcome.
Sharks
1. The roster: +1
Ins: James Maloney (Sydney Roosters), Chad Townsend (New Zealand Warriors), Joseph Paulo (Paramatta Eels)
Outs: Michael Gordon (Parramatta Eels), Blake Ayshford (New Zealand Warriors), Jeff Robson (New Zealand Warriors),
Not bad recruiting from the Sharks. Although they lost Gordon, the return of Townsend and picking up Maloney will provide some great attacking focus. Cronulla don’t defend too badly, imagine if their attack got on song too.
2. The coach -1
Shane Flanagan has a few questions hanging over him – most of which have been trawled over in the press for two years now. He needs results this year to back up last year’s sixth spot.
3. Club stability -1
The Sharks have seemingly recovered well from the peptides scandal, and the Carney scandal, and the Fifita brothers scandal. We await what this year brings.
4. Recent good results +1
The last time the Sharks made the top four was in 2008 under Ricky Stuart. Last season was the first since 2008 that they made it past week one of the finals.
Total = +/- 0
Gallen is such a talisman for this side. At the age of 34 can he stay on the pitch? Especially if he plays Origin again? If he doesn’t, I guess Ennis can fill the void. I reckon they will make the finals again – barring disaster.
Raiders
1. The roster: +2
Ins: Aidan Sezer (Gold Coast Titans), Elliott Whitehead (Catalan Dragons), Adam Clydsdale (Newcastle Knights), Jeff Lima (Catalan Dragons), Zac Santo (Cowboys), Joe Tapine (Knights)
Outs: David Shillington (Gold Coast Titans), Mark Nicholls (Melbourne Storm), Joel Edwards (Wests Tigers), Mitch Cornish (Parramatta Eels), Josh McCrone (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Of the 28 players that were at Canberra when Ricky Stuart arrived in 2014 only 11 are still at the club. Stuart’s recruitment has been strong. The inclusion of Sezer, Whtehead and Tapine looks inspired. This squad should be competitive.
2. The coach +1
As said above, if nothing else Stuart has recruited strongly. The only way his position is in jeopardy is if this season is a total disaster.
3. Club stability +1
The Raiders seem to be united on and off the field.
4. Recent good results -1
The Raiders have not made the finals since 2012. While their attack was the third best last year their defence was one of the worst.
Total = +3
If the Raiders don’t make the finals this year I will be stunned.
Warriors
1. The roster: +2
Ins: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Sydney Roosters), Issac Luke (South Sydney Rabbitohs),
Outs: Nathan Friend (Gold Coast Titans), Siliva Havili (St George Illawarra Dragons), Sam Rapira (Huddersfield Giants), Sam Tomkins (Wigan Warriors), Chad Townsend (Cronulla Sharks), Sebastine Ikahihifo (St George Illawarra Dragons), Glen Fisiiahi (rugby union)
Any side that has signed Tuivasa-Sheck and Issac Luke has done well. Further, they haven’t lost that much. Dare I say it, the Warriors look strong.
2. The coach -2
Andrew McFadden needs results and quickly. If by Round 6 the Warriors aren’t in the top eight he’ll be replaced with Ivan Cleary (if Ivan agrees to come of course). Blind Freddy knows that and there must be massive pressure on McFadden’s shoulders.
3. Club stability +1
The Warriors are pretty good at infighting and incidents but it has been relatively quiet for a while now.
4. Recent good results -1
The Warriors run to the finals fell apart when Shaun Johnson’s ankle broke. The last time they made the finals was in 2011 with Ivan Cleary as coach. They made the grand final.
Total = +/- 0
I reckon that the Warriors will make the finals. However, the stats disagree strongly.
Cowboys
1. The roster: +2
Ins: Shaun Hudson (Gold Coast Titans), Jahrome Hughes (Townsville Blackhawks)
Outs: Glenn Hall (retirement), Robert Lui (Salford Red Devils), Kelepi Tanginoa (Parramatta Eels)
They haven’t picked up much but they don’t really need too. The premiers have lost no one from the side that started – and won – the grand final last year. The only question marks are a) do they have the hunger and b) how will they go with injuries.
2. The coach +1
Paul Green won a premiership in his second season as coach. He is in a pretty good place.
3. Club stability +2
Nothing like being the Premiers to unite a club!
4. Recent good results +2
Yes. Very good recent results. Extremely good.
Total = +7
The only things that can stop them are injuries, lack of hunger or the Broncos.
Panthers
1. The roster: -1
Ins: Trent Merrin (St George Illawarra Dragons, Peta Hiku (Manly Sea Eagles)
Outs: Lewis Brown (Manly Sea Eagles), Brent Kite (retirement), Apisai Koroisau (Manly Sea Eagles), Nigel Plum (retirement), Sika Manu (Hull), David Simmons (retirement), Adam Docker (retirement), Jamal Idris (released)
What a pick up Trent Merrin is. And Peter Hiku is a handy acquisition to. The Panthers have otherwise been losing players. Lewis Brown and the early retirement of Adam Docker in particular will hurt.
2. The coach +/0
I have no idea why Gus got rid of Ivan Cleary. Last season was so blighted with injury that no blame could be apportioned. The season before Cleary got a similarly beaten up unit within six points of the grand final. Anthony Griffin took the Broncos to a preliminary final in 2011, first round finals eliminations in 2012 and 2014 and 12th place in 2013. It’s all to prove for Griffin.
3. Club stability +1
In spite of the coach getting sacked out of the blue, the Penrith club is solid.
4. Recent good results +1
Their 11th placing last year was due to injuries and they made a preliminary final in 2014.
Total = +1
I have absolutely no idea how the Panthers will go in 2016. I hope well.
Rabbitohs
1. The roster: +/- 0
Ins: Damien Cook (Canterbury Bulldogs), Sam Burgess (English rugby union), Hymel Hunt (Melbourne Storm)
Outs: Issac Luke (New Zealand Warriors), Chris McQueen (Gold Coast Titans), Dylan Walker (Manly Sea Eagles), Tim Grant (Wests Tigers)
The signing of Damien Cook and the return of Sam Burgess are huge. They offset the loss of Luke, McQueen and Walker.
2. The coach +1
Michael MaGuire is a good coach. He’ll have a plan to improve on last season. And he’ll have Sam Burgess to help him implement it.
3. Club stability +1
The Rabbitohs are a passionate bunch and they are hanging together. Things may start to fray if they don’t make the finals.
4. Recent good results +1
They surrendered in Round 1 of the finals last year but the 2014 Premiership isn’t that long ago.
Total = +3
Can they recapture 2014’s rampaging form? Any side with Greg Inglis, Sam Burgess, George Burgess, Tom Burgess, Adam Reynolds and Alex Johnston has to be a very good chance.
Wests Tigers
1. The roster: -1
Ins: Matt Ballin (Manly Sea Eagles), Jack Littlejohn (Manly Sea Eagles), Michael Chee-Kam (Manly Sea Eagles)
Outs: Martin Taupau (Manly Sea Eagles), Pat Richards (Catalan Dragons), Keith Galloway (Leeds Rhinos), Tim Moltzen (Manly Sea Eagles)
Matt Ballin is a great pick up, and Littlejohn is a half who can tackle, something they didn’t have. Apart from that their list hasn’t changed much. I thought it needed to.
2. The coach -1
Jason Taylor, in trying to wrest control of the club, opened Pandora’s box. Will Robbie Farah play first grade? Can Taylor get the squad behind him? Does he have the cattle to mount any form of challenge? The answer to those last two questions needs to be yes or he may well depart before the seasons end.
3. Club stability -2
While the Parramatta Eels are the benchmark for dysfunction, the joint venture is challenging hard for the title.
4. Recent good results -2
They haven’t made the finals since 2011 and have been in the bottom four for the last three years.
Total = -6
It is a big mountain to climb for the Wests Tigers. 2016 will be about rebuilding – or tearing the joint apart in a continuation of ugly civil war.
Titans
1. The roster: -2
Ins: David Shillington (Canberra Raiders), Nathan Friend (New Zealand Warriors), Zeb Taia (Catalan Dragons), Ashley Taylor (Brisbane Broncos), Tyrone Roberts (Newcastle Knights), Chris McQueen (South Sydney Rabbitohs),
Outs: Nate Myles (Manly Sea Eagles), Aidan Sezer (Canberra Raiders), Dave Taylor (Catalan Dragons), Matthew White (Melbourne Storm), Brad Tighe (retirement), Kalifa Faifai Loa (St George Illawarra Dragons), Beau Falloon (Leeds Rhinos), James Roberts (Brisbane Broncos)
Shillington, Friend, Taylor, Roberts and McQueen are all good pick-ups. The problem is they’ve been gutted by departures. While James Roberts would have hurt, it is nothing compared to the loss of Myles and Sezer.
2. The coach +/- 0
Neil Henry was my PE teacher back in the 1980s. If things go as badly as many predict this season then he may be one again next year. However, his work with the Raiders demonstrated that he could do good things with a weaker roster. He’ll need lots of luck though.
3. Club stability -2
Zero.
4. Recent good results -2
They haven’t made the finals since 2010.
Total = -6
This could get ugly.
So after all those variations are taken into account my predicted table for 2016 – after the end of the home-and-away season – looks like this.
Tim Gore’s 2016 table
1st – Broncos
2nd – Cowboys
3rd – Storm
4th – Roosters
5th – Bulldogs
6th – Raiders
7th – Rabbitohs
8th – Dragons
9th – Panthers
10th – Sharks
11th – Warriors
12th – Sea Eagles
13th – Eels
14th – Newcastle
15th – Wests Tigers
16th – Titans
Of course there is one variable that is down to luck: injuries. If important players like Thurston and Ben Hunt get season-ending injuries (touch wood) the whole season could turn on its head.
Bearfax
Guest
Dr Yes, I can see some elements of his assessment that make sense, others that are just checking out the chicken entrails. His four primary factors in general terms make a degree of sense for example but then suggesting equal weighting for each item seems skewed. Recent scores for example have a serious bearing if the players and coach involved are the same. Change those two elements and recent results become almost irrelevant, depending upon how significant the change. I can understand looking at the teams that are consistently winners, and therefore its probable they will have more likelihood of being at the top end than other sides that are less successful. But of course in the short term teams can go through purple patches, like the Cowboys are doing now. So much depends on the cattle you have and how well they are being coached. As for stability of the club, Manly for example had been unstable for years yet were still winning comps and remaining in the top group. What failed them last year was the loss of so many of their top players of yesteryear, not adequately replacing them, contractual issues and a savage injury toll especially in the first half of the season. If Manly had retained their cattle on the field they would have reached the semis at least. Its just bad luck primarily with injuries. As for stability, the club as mentioned is now controlled by one group. Where's the instability? Supporters may be peeved with he Toovey issue, but Manly are hardly being managed poorly this year. As with my slanted perspective so it is with Tim and anyone using such loose stats. Someone else using those rather loose stats could come to a significantly different outcome.
WarriorsFaithless
Guest
I'm not actually saying that the 3 grand finals come down just to Fittler, I'm merely quoting the statistics. If Stuart was indeed a "good coach" surely he should have planned for an after-Fittler period. He clearly didn't. I do believe that you can't judge a coach by a single season (e.g. Paramatta) but if the same coach goes consecutive seasons & goes backwards, that must be a sign that they're not that good. So, if you consider consecutive seasons that Stuart has coached (where Fittler has not been a part of his team) he has missed the top 8 4 of 5 seasons (seasons 4 & 5 with the Roosters & seasons 2, 3 & 4 with the Sharks)... Again, hard to argue with the statistics. And that's all I'm looking at. I believe Stuart went well in his first few years as much due to his "current knowledge" (at the time) of the game. A now changing game I think he hasn't adjusted to since...
Dr Yes
Guest
Tom K. Way to go, stick with the bookies. According to top of Tim's article, they put Chooks at 5. Right now: tab have Chooks at 2, sportsbet at 5, w Hill at 5, and ladbrokes at 5. So, 5 it is - definitely stick with that, they have the big moolah to win and lose. Tim and his statistics have Chooks at 4. 1 place different.
Dr Yes
Guest
Thanks, Bearfax. Makes sense it's very complex to judge club's operation, individual players, coach and team dynamics and mesh together. If we could do it well the bookies would suffer. Still, need to make decisions somehow, with some basic bits of info - on long-term club, coach, recent team form, potential change to form due to change in roster. Think you could argue Tim's picked the most direct stats possible. Don't agree with all his figures in each box, where gut judgment's been used, but big picture approach is good. Will be subject to far more fluctuation that judging batsman performance, no doubt...
Sleiman Azizi
Roar Guru
Glebe still have a win rate of over 55%. I think they will do well this year based on those stats.
Bearfax
Guest
Dr Yes, you obviously dont read my comments on the cricket forum. I would probably be identified as a stats tragic. I have a great deal of faith in stats, but not when there are too many variables involved, such as are being identified here, especially stats regarding what happened 5-15 years ago. If I pick a batsman in first class cricket, their performances can be gauged over years and though they fluctuate, the element that makes stats work with them, is that they are the same person playing over and again. Therefore a strong first class average over many seasons, gives cause to have some confidence for that players potential as a test player. But when you talk about a team, especially one that changes personnel, coaches etc, stats involving past displays by the team become redundant. You can make a general assumption, probability given the players you are bringing into the team, but teams especially regarding games like rugby league depend a great deal on combinations, strategic game plans. Generalised stats wont give you that. It will individual players to a degree but not teams that have significantly changed personnel. And as I said with a good 1-6-7-9 spine, you have the basic elements to suggest some success. But if there is ineffective combination or inadequate support and not to forget injury issues, prediction , other than based on the qualities of the players you have playing this year and the coach's skill, is near impossible.
Dr Yes
Guest
I'm going to play devil's advocate and assume Broncos & Cowboys don't make GF - just on fact that Souffs & Dogs didn't last year, and they haven't depth of experienced players outside top 13, but more good youngsters. Yep, I'm asking for trouble there :). 1. Manly Pro: Footy op, end to 2015, Turbos, hookers, Walker, Brown & Kapow. Risks: lost leaders, backs injury 2. Sharks Pro: Flannigan, killer pack, Maloney+Bird+Holmes sounds dangerous. Risks: Gallen's legs, centres? 3 Broncs Pro: Bennett, roster, halves, backrow, know-how. Risks: Injury, no Hodges, Origin, key juniors departed 4. Cowboys Pro: JT, Morgan, Matt Scott, Green, 'nuff said. Risks: injury, Origin. 5. Roosters Pro: Robbo, pack w JWH, Cordner, Fergo, juniors, Robbo+pack :). Risks: backline, supension, JWH on field 6. Storm Pro: Bellyache, big 4, Koroibete, all-rounders Risks: not too many, they're robust. 7. Raiders Pro: Stuart, halves, pack Risks: outside backs, depth for spine 8. Dragons Pro: Pack, defence, halves, Dugan at centre Risks: Need Marshall fit & on song, no Merrin 9. Eels Pro: Foran, Jennings, Semi, Peats, Ma'u. Risks: Still miss Hayne, props, fullback, season fade, spine injured 10. Warriors Pro: Great spine, big bopper backs, Mannering. Risks: Johnson injury, five-eighth, depth, coach, prop fitness 11. Rabbits Pro: Inglis, Surgess, AReyn, Cook Risks: Back row, no Walker, props 3 & 4, depth, things getting narky 12. Dogs Pro: Hasler, Graham, Klemmer, Jackson Risks: BMoz hammy, Eastwood fitnes, Hoppa form, T-Rex form, half depth 13. Panthers Pro: Segeyaro, Merrin, Taylor, Moylan Risks: no Koroisau, Brown, Idris, hooker+halfbacks+fullback all injury-prone 14. Wests Tigers Pro: Angry Farah, angry Woods, Tedesco Risks: brittle halves, pack size, no Kapow, Taylor covering backside 15. Titans Pro: Bird? Risks: worst player losses - no Miles, Roberts, Sezer, Dave Taylor; Elgey at half, pack size 16. Newcastle Pro: Hodko? Sims? Risks: worst player losses :) - no Scott, Roberts, Tapine, Tuimavave; half depth, pack size
Dr Yes
Guest
Assume they miss JWH, Cordner & Pearce for 10 weeks, have SKD throughout, have ok injuries, win 5 of first 12 and 9 of second 12. That's about 5th place. Last year was 6 of 12, then 12 of 12, then no JWH and Pearce as semis commenced. Heaps of assumptions there. But on the upside: Fergo had a great 2015 - 80% of RTS's attacking stats & can improve at the back. Hastings can step up - maybe not quite hitting Maloney's stellar figures for assists, but outdoing him for defence. (Jennings to Copley is a drop, given Copley played 9 games last year for 1 try, 1 linebreak, but, Bennett & injury didn't give Copley a big go). New players can develop a little during tricky period. Burgess is England winger, Elliot's a junior centre of the year (one of two), Manu's a junior winger of the year (maybe too young), Mitchell's an Aus schoolboy fullback and member of junior team of year, and Omar Slaimankhel's the NSW cup fullback of year. Hastings and Nikorima are the junior Kangaroo halves. Big steps up to star in NRL, but they have the season to develop... So the replacement troops are evolving from juniors. Still, playing the 5v6 semi is a mountain to climb.
Dr Yes
Guest
Warriors, if you put the Roosters 3 years of GFs down to the Fittler factor alone, maybe you weren't watching the team too much? Stuart was revolutionary. Best defence of the decade: rush-in, charging as a line and driving in numbers. That's not just Fittler. Attack fast & dynamic - alot of Fittler there, I admit. Had Morley, Wing, Fitzgibbon & Fletcher, but every top side has stars. Brought juniors to star level. Half had a start under Murray, but e.g. Minichiello was an under-weight green winger. Under Stuart, the following debuted as internationals: Minichiello, Wing, Fitzgibbon, Ricketson, Crocker, Hegarty, Tupou, Cayless, Lomu, Sa, Soliola. Hodges, Cross, Flannery, Finch made Origin debuts. Cross was close. In other words, a production line. Most of those developed significantly under him. Stuart 's had below-par squads for a decade. He's intense & gets cantankerous and abrasive if things hit the skids. But he knows the game like few & can coach.
Dr Yes
Guest
Bearfax, any info you use to influence decisions is a stat. If you don't use stats, then your pulling teams out of a hat. :)
Dr Yes
Guest
I think footy clubs can live off leagues club cash cows forever. Leagues clubs are setup with constitution to fund to the footy club. In addition to providing services & entertainment to the community, of course. It's just an arbitrary split. Same group overall.
Dr Yes
Guest
In defence of Tim, he's breaking the problem down into categories, gathering numbers on each, then recombining to give predictions. That is analysis, you know. Don't think you can say the same for a seemingly reasonable hunch that the biggest recruiters will go top 4 or top 6. Certainly, recruitment helps. But how much? And over what time? And Tim did rate the Squads - whether new players or existing. Whether you agree here, though... For the record on recruitment: Initial Success 2009: Dragons took the minor premiership in 2009, after recruiting Kangaroos / 30% of Bronco's squad and the game's best coach. 2011: Cowboys in 2011 bought Brent Tate, Dallas Johnson, Glenn Hall, Ashton Sims, Tariq Sims, Antonio Winterstein, Cory Paterson, Joel Riethmuller, Kalifa Faifai Loa. Finished 7th. 2012: Dogs bought Hasler & T-Rex, Hodko & friends & Barba and won minor premiership in 2012. 2013: Roosters took a premiership after signing 2 internationals + Maloney + Trent Robinson - but their young forwards and backs were particularly good. Initial Failure 2004: Tigers bought Brett Hodgson, Scott Prince, Jason Moodie, Scott Sattler, Todd Payten, Nick Graham, Pat Richards, Ben Reynolds, Shane Elford, Keiran Kerr. Finished 9th. 2012: Knights did almost identically to Dragons 2009. Finished 12th. 2013: Penrith bought James Segeyaro, James Roberts, Dean Whare, Lewis Brown, Jeremy Latimore, Sika Manu, Wes Naiqama, Mose Masoe, John Isaac, Tom Humble. Finished 10th. 2014: Dragons bought Mike Cooper, Benji Marshall, Dylan Farell, Joel Thompson, Gareth Widdop, Sam Williams, Peter Mata'utia, Michael Witt. Finished 11th. So maybe recruiting can be rocks or diamonds, at least in the first year?
Dr Yes
Guest
Mals, you mean just like last year when they had single majority owner? And were unstable? Foran, DCE, Toovs replaced, board members mutiny against other board members & proactively hitting the media. Mebbe Parra & Tigers eclipsed them (just).
Dr Yes
Guest
Hey, Renegade. Saying it's pointless seems a bit harsh. While, Squad & Coach figures cover team form, they don't summarise the clubs' big-picture ability to steer to results. Think past 20 years average would correlate well with future performance. Seems to work very well with Broncos, Manly, Roosters, Panthers, Tigers and Titans - strong operations v ones challenged in the past. Good/bad performance for a couple of years can include luck - temporary combination of coach, team, injuries, bounce of ball, blow of whistle. What about club finance, passion, smarts, skills development, culture, living conditions, injury management? These matter greatly and are longer-term features not blips on the radar. Recent good/bad results tend to regress to long-term average (with fluctuations, of course). Much easier to average 20 years of performance than to dig into finance books, employees, processes, etc. In the end the figure only makes up 20% of the formula. Seems very sensible to me, Tim.
Walter Penninger
Roar Guru
Tim I am sure the past has something to do with the future but a mathematical relationship may be pushing things too far and your own list seem to break your opening sentence which predicted 3 sides to drop out of the 8 from last year. The one team you have droping out is Cronulla and a lot of people would disagree with that view and what happened to the other 2?
The Barry
Roar Guru
there is nothing analytical in these "statistics"
Tim Gore
Expert
Baz, you make fair points. But can we downgrade from "Significantly flawed all the way through" to "a brilliant piece of work that will inspire and inform for generations"?
The Barry
Roar Guru
Recent results and strength of roster are completely different things. Forget the Roosters, the squad ratings for the Cowboys and Broncos PROVE the roster rating methodology is flawed and applied in at least two different ways. I love Tims articles. They have a unique view, are interesting and challenging. This one is just subjective opinion dressed up as statistical analysis and significantly flawed all the way through.
Bearfax
Guest
What is far more relevant than stats about a team over the past 10 years is the old 1-6-7-9 theory. If you get those positions well filled, you have the framework to build a seriously competitive team. Usually teams with a strong spine are the most effective. The Cowboys have Coote, Morgan, Thurston and Granville, Brisbane Boyd, Milford, Hunt, McCullough, Warriors Tuivasa-Sheck, Leuluai, Johnson, Luke. Sharks Bird, Maloney, Barba, Ennis. Souths have lost Luke but still look strong with Innes, Keary, Reynolds McInnes. The Roosters look vulnerable with Mitchell, Langi, Pearce and Friend. The Bulldogs have Perrett (or Morris), Reynolds, Mbye and Lichoa. Manly has Stewart (or Trbojevic), Walker, DCE and Koroisau (or Parcell). From that group the teams that look stronger are Sharks and Warriors About the same are Cowboys, Bronks, Bulldogs, slightly weaker Rabbits, weaker Roosters. As for Manly they have let go solid 32 year old Ballin, brilliant defender and distrubutor but not a great attacker, for two younger faster hookers. They let go tough, go forward and talented Foran for much faster 'Walker. Remember Foran was off his game all through 2015, mainly through injury. Therefore Manly look stronger, especially with tighter forward pack. That's how I would begin to assess teams.
kevin dustby
Guest
there is nothing statistical in this "analysis"